World trade: Modest recovery continues

The latest indicators suggest a modest recovery in world trade. The apparent upswing in US import demand over the last couple of months is a notable positive signal for the global economy, and the constraining impact on world trade of the Eurozone recession of 2011–13 is also easing. The pace of world trade growth is, however, still relatively slow; our forecasts suggest world trade growth will only recover to its long‐term average level of just under 6% per year by end‐2015. Trade growth in key emerging markets also remains soft, although some indicators from Asia suggest an improving picture. One reason for the relatively weak growth in world trade may be a restructuring of global supply chains, reducing the growth in trade in intermediate goods. If so, this is not necessarily bad news for the global economy but may have distributional consequences, for example bearing down on growth in countries that have specialised in providing such goods including some emergers.     

Gender equality still on the European agenda—but for how long?

While the momentum has certainly not yet disappeared from the gender equality agenda within Europe, the impact of that agenda remains patchy. Progress within individual member states has been significant but not always steady or cumulative. At the European level more attention has been paid to the gender pay gap but policy initiatives remain weak. The loss of the equal opportunities pillar in the new employment guidelines puts this momentum at risk but the new phase still includes commitments to an integrated strategy of gender mainstreaming and equal opportunities.     

雕栏玉砌应犹在,只是朱颜改--记云南大理

古老的悠闲与诗意会被商品经济的“空前繁荣”冲击得荡然无存,但又牢固地存在于人们的记忆中,挥散不去。但千万不要让自己的追寻使脆弱的美丽消失殆尽。如果真有神灵,那就请你,请你显示你的神威,让我们生活在一方净土之上。今夜,我将乘着月色的清辉,再次来到你的身边,感受大理清爽的风,让她吹出清醒的自己。     

EMU without Britain: reasons for scepticism

This paper applies the theory of optimum currency areas to the question of which countries could be expected to be successful members of EMU if the monetary union does not include Britain, and is therefore led by the Bundesbank. Correlation matrices are prepared for potential members of EMU for recent years to see which countries would have tended to agree on a monetary policy and which would frequently disagree. The statistics strongly suggest that the Bank of England would be a far more successful leader of EMU than would the Bundesbank. Only Austria and the Netherlands have had macroeconomic cycles which closely follow those of Germany. Far more countries have had cycles which parallel those of Britain. With EMU being led by the Bundesbank, because Britain has not joined, the prospects for monetary union are quite poor.     

Iterative pricing for planning foreign trade

In many industrialized countries there exist large idle production capacities. Conceivably, these might be used for increased economic aid to developing countries and for the stimulation of trade with incompletely convertible currency territories. Concurrently, a stimulation of the economic development of the industrialized countries might be achieved. In developing countries, there may be need for using available export resources in an efficient way to obtain required imports. In the Soviet sphere of influence, there is the problem of how the state foreign trade monopolies should allocate available export quantities and scarce convertible currencies, so as to obtain required import quantities. Related problems were encountered by Western boards of trade after the war in allocating import and export licences. This paper deals with the problem how to attain efficient allocations in foreign trade with the help of modern electronic computational technique. The computational system may be developed to account for inter-industry relations and industrial investments in order to achieve a high rate of economic growth. Editor's note: This is the first of a series of articles on foreign trade planning scheduled to appear inEconomics of Planning, 1963. The author wants to express his sincere gratitude to Professors Gunnar Myrdal, G?ran Ohlin, Ragnar Frisch and Aron Yakovlevich Boyarskij for generous scientific support and criticism; to Dr. Ketternath Bhagwandin, Gunnar Ehrling, and Lars Nilsson for advice in connection with the computer program and for the generous grant of computing time by the Swedish Board for Computing Machinery.     

论职场成功之道

加入WTO后,特别是中共十六届三中全会后,中国各行各业的市场化速度正以超过人们想像的速度向前推进,所以,变革成了当今经济与管理活动的一种常态.这种加速的变革不但对人们衣食住行等日常生活等产生了深刻的影响,还对人们的思想观念、生活态度等产生了前所未有的冲击,这些又反过来深深地影响着中国整个社会的转型与变革的进程.     

应对中美贸易不平衡的政策选择

近年来,中美贸易不平衡问题,引起人们的关注。据中方统计,美国对华贸易逆差始于1993年,为62.7亿美元;到2004年为802.7亿美元。而据美方统计,其对华逆差始于1983年,为3亿美元;2004年为1272.6亿美元。(见表1)在2000年时,中国就取代日本成为美最大的逆差国。     

Epistemological reasons for preferring component analysis to factor analysis

Spearman's and Thomson's mathematical controversy over factor theory was forgotten when it became evident that empirical tetrad-differences bound away from zero (and when empirical evidence argued the need for extracting more factors from a matrix). In fact, both their models lead to zero tetraddifferences. Being more interested in the psychological than in the mathematical aspects of Spearman's model. Thompson remained indifferent to mathematical aspects of multiple factor analysis when Thurstone theorized it. Thus, he did not perceive that his counter-example negated the assumption Thrustone shared the rank of the matrix. The idea that components to be extracted must be equal to the rank of the matrix is not assumed in Hotelling's component model: as a result, this is the first epistemological reason for preferring component analysis to factor analysis. A second epistemological reason is the central theorem of Thurstone's multiple-factor model, which can be criticized because it is an assumption that, the rank of a complete matrix being n, it becomes k when commonalities are in the principal diagonal. This assumption goes against common sense, a fact demonstrated through comparison between residuals after k components have been extracted and after k principal factors have been extracted.     

浅议混凝土结构裂缝原因及防治措施

钢筋混凝土结构工程由于设计、施工、使用等原因,经常会出现一些裂缝,这些裂缝轻则影响其适用性和耐久性,重则关系到结构安全。在探讨混凝土裂缝成因的基础上,提出了有效预防和对已有裂缝进行处理的合理措施。     

Mathematical theory for a multilateral trade clearing agency

In connection with the article by Professor Ragnar Frisch in this issue of Economics of Planning, we will here present a mathematical formulation of multilateral clearing. The formulation is to a large extent built upon a presentation given by Professor Frisch in Norwegian. But we will also utilize experiences gained from experimentation with some numerical examples.

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Government sets 2021 marker for EU trade deal

• ▀ We expect the UK and EU to agree an FTA that will take effect on 1 January 2021, two years earlier than we had previously assumed. The earlier introduction of trade barriers will dampen the post-coronavirus recovery.
• ▀ The economic case for delaying the implementation seemed to have been strengthened by the pandemic, which has left firms and the government ill-equipped to adapt. But political considerations have won out.
• ▀ We think a basic trade deal is more likely than not. The terms of the withdrawal agreement mean that failure to agree an FTA would increase frictions on trade between GB and NI. The UK will also be keen to protect vulnerable sectors.

     

论会计信息失真的成因与治理

随着我国社会主义市场经济的发展,会计信息失真的问题日益严重。会计信息失真给资本市场带来了混乱,给广大投资者带来了无可挽回的经济损失。因此及时找出会计信息失真的成因,强化治理措施已迫在眉睫。本文详细论述了企业会计信息失真的成因,并且有针对性的提出了相应的治理措施。     

未注册商标法律保护的根据

未注册商标是商标法保护的重要内容 ,保护未注册商标有充分的事实根据和法律根据。首先 ,是历史和事实根据。其次是《巴黎公约》等国际条约和外国的立法均对未注册商标进行保护。最后 ,我国新修订的商标法大大加强了对未注册商标的保护。总之 ,虽然各国商标法的内容绝大部分是围绕注册商标规定的 ,但是 ,不能因此认为未注册商标不应当受法律保护。     

协会的出路在于改革--在上海市行业协会建设推进会上的发言

上海市企业联合会、上海市企业家协会(简称"上海企联")拥有25年的建会历史。上海市企业联合会前身是1979年8月成立的上海市企业管理协会;上海市企业家协会前身是1983年7月成立的上海厂长(经理)工作研究会。上海企联的会员单位遍及全市各行各业。协会在历史上曾为上海的企业管理、经济体制改革和经济发展作出过重要贡献,有过辉煌,在上海享有一定的声誉。     

蒸压釜釜体法兰齿根裂纹检验研究

文章通过对蒸压釜制造和使用过程的详细了解,并结合有限元应力分析方法对釜体法兰釜齿进行了线性化应力校核,得出了蒸压釜釜体法兰齿根部裂纹产生的原因,并给出了维修技术方案,为蒸压釜制造单位提高制造质量给出了建议,为蒸压釜的制造监检和定期检验提供了注意事项。     

Similar,but still different: how US multinational companies in Germany and Switzerland use host‐country training and skill practices

We examine in how far US subsidiaries in Germany and Switzerland display characteristics of a strategic fit with their host country and mostly find support for our predictions. Subsequently we determine each subsidiary's host‐country fit and test for within country differences in using local training and skill practices. We find the extent of continuing vocational education and training and the extent to which training on the job is important to vary with host‐country fit in Germany, while in Switzerland, as predicted, we find no such relations.