Central bank hawks unlikely to gain the ascendancy

• ? Although further financial market weakness could delay or scale back central bank tightening this year, the waters are being muddied by the perception that underlying inflation pressures are building and that past exceptional measures to counter downside risks may no longer be needed. On balance, we think that it is more likely that central banks will push back, rather than bring forward, rate hikes, especially if the recent oil price weakness persists.
• ? The most crucial issues for the path of monetary policy are likely to be the outlook for inflation and the risks to growth prospects. While there may be grounds to reverse past ‘insurance’ cuts in interest rates, only a slow pace of normalisation is justified at present, in our view. In Europe in particular, sustained lowflation remains a risk.
• ? Central banks may develop a taste for raising rates if they perceive the neutral interest rate to be trending up. There may also be a desire to normalise policy to create space for future loosening, but this will only affect policy at the margin. Meanwhile, although problems such as banking troubles and the zombification of firms are often blamed on low interest rates, they are probably more a symptom of low growth and other more structural issues. Raising interest rates is unlikely to resolve these problems.
• ? At the margin, central bank behaviour may become less dovish. However, with the global economy slowing and some recession warning indicators flashing amber, the wings of the hawks will likely remain clipped.

     

Why the MPC is unlikely to join the negative rate club

• ▀ The economic shock from the coronavirus has warmed up the MPC's long-held coolness toward negative interest rates. But we think there are a number of reasons why such a move is unlikely.
• ▀ While taking rates below zero could lower banks’ funding costs and encourage lending, the net economic effect is ambiguous. Also, ‘sticky’ deposit rates would hit banks’ already strained profitability, risking paradoxical effects.
• ▀ The MPC has better-targeted tools available to it. If the MPC wanted to lower borrowing costs, increasing the generosity of the Term Funding Scheme could deliver the benefits of negative rates while reducing adverse effects. And the present scale of fiscal support reduces the need for looser monetary policy.

     

财富巨子话财富

就在2001年10月,有一个英国人给中国人排名,一本叫<福布斯>的杂志排了100个最有钱的人,然后就一直争论不断,有的人说排得好,有的人说排得不好.但是不管排名怎么排的,大家满意不满意,至少这100人在某种程度上代表了中国经济发展的最中坚的力量,他们每个人都有辛酸的成功故事,他们企业发展的经历对所有创业的,或者正在造就一番大事业的人都有很多值得借鉴的经验和可以和他们探讨的地方.     

Why levelling-up is unlikely to solve regional disparities

• ▪ Under the UK government's plan to “level up” the regions, the Budget delivered an increase in capital spending on under-performing places. However, we think the overall impact is unlikely to be large.
• ▪ The extent to which regional imbalances have worsened in recent years is unclear. In fact, the large gap in productivity between London and the rest of the UK widened the most during the 1997–2010 Labour government. Disparity with the rest of the UK is largely due to London's special characteristics.
• ▪ At the local level, austerity policies have damaged many areas, while Brexit is posing new challenges. Other problems are very deep-rooted. Previous governments have struggled to address them and we expect this one will too

     

Why the UK saving ratio is unlikely to flip anytime soon

• ? With inflation down and wages rising, the outlook for consumer spending in the UK is brightening. But should households opt to boost savings, the mood could darken.
• ? We think a meaningful rise in the saving ratio from its recent record lows is unlikely, though. Austerity may be easing, but the drag from fiscal policy is still set to limit households’ savings resources, while the durability of the current expansion may reduce the motivation for precautionary saving.
• ? What's more, any rise in interest rates on savings accounts will probably be even slower than the modest pace we expect for Bank Rate. And with the demographic shift toward an older, less thrifty, population, the appetite of households to save looks set to remain subdued.

     

Lord Aldington's Disservice to Wealth Creation

The habitual opposition to the growth of service industries from traditionalists and manufacturing interests is rehearsed in the Aldington Report on Overseas Trade John McEnery (right), former Under-Secretary at the Department of Trade and Industry, and author of IEA Research Monograph Manufacturing Two Nations, condemns outmoded patterns of thought and recalls on the Upper House to abandon its manufacturing myopia     

“慈善是社会财富重新分配的最好方式”

唐骏最近有点烦。10月20日,新华都慈善基金会宣布成立。新华部集团董事长陈发树将其个人持有的价值83亿元人民币的有价证券全部捐赠给新华都慈善基金会。新华都集团总裁兼CEO唐骏出任新华都慈善基金会的执行理事长,全面负责新华都慈善基金会的管理和日常运营……     

The elusive NHS consumer: 1948 to the NHS Plan

Since the creation of the National Health Service in 1948, patients have never been fully-fledged consumers of healthcare; they have never held personal economic power with which to express their needs and preferences to service providers. Nonetheless, the history of the NHS has demonstrated an ever-increasing policy interest in the needs of individual patients and in the responsiveness of services to these needs. Following the collapse of the postwar consensus which gave birth to the welfare state, successive governments have pledged to give priority to consumer needs, but have struggled to realise this priority in practice.Professional and state paternalism in defining patient needs and choices have endured. current policy emphasis on 'patient and public involvement' and 'partnership working' sustains a top-down bureaucratic approach but tempers practice with input from all stakeholders in local health economies. There is much to do to make the culture of the NHS genuinely responsive to consumer needs.     

Pareto-improving income redistribution: expanding consumer access to the vaccines market

Economic theory has proved that income redistribution in imperfectly competitive markets can increase social welfare and lead to Pareto-improving situations. This paper shows that, under certain assumptions, self-financing tax subsidy schemes can have Pareto-improving effects also in a competitive framework. This result is achieved by exploiting external economies of scale, resulting in a decrease in price along with an increase in output. The case of the vaccines industry and World Health Organization initiatives are examined to illustrate the theoretical analysis.     

Retail market structure and the threat by the manufacturer to sell goods directly to the consumer

When a manufacturer and its retailers and consumers are spatially separated, the retailers’ market size may be limited by the manufacturer who provides consumers with an option to purchase goods directly from them. The manufacturer uses this tactic to increase profit when a few retailers dominate the market. The mill price of a manufacturer, that is, the price of the good at delivery from a manufacturer’s factory, is critical under these circumstances.If the manufacturer charges a franchise fee, thus absorbing the retailer’s profit, this fee is a function of the mill price. Mill price policy can be used to maximize profit on the sale of goods and collection of the franchise fee. The resulting retail market structure becomes preferable for the manufacturer and consumers since the manufacturer’s profit is larger, as is the quantity purchased, compared with a competitive equilibrium in which every firm entering the market area is assumed to move its location instantly without cost.     

From The Wealth of Nations to Populorum Progressio (On the Development of Peoples): Wealth and Development from the Perspective of the Catholic Social Thought Tradition

Catholic social thought (CST) looks at economic development from the broader framework of authentic human development. It is only by viewing both man's dignity and his social nature that we include the full nature of the human being. In CST wealth is understood based on its role in promoting authentic human development. Wealth is a gift from God, with humans participating in its creation, and its creation, distribution, and its use must be carried out in a manner that respects God's law (justice and charity). Furthermore, man should never place wealth above God or above humans. Those who control wealth have special responsibilities with regards to their use of it; thus the right of private property is always restricted by the social responsibility to use it towards the common good. The goal must be the development of the whole person and all people. Wealth is socially created and thus must be distributed, at least partially, among the entire community. Economic development needs to be grounded in social justice and its two co‐principles, charity and justice. Grounding economic development in the authentic development of the person means placing the people of the poor countries at the center of their development drama, both as the leading actors and as the directors.     

A MCGP decision aid for homebuyers to make the best choice

This study adopts a new approach, the multi-choice goal programming (MCGP), to evaluate houses in order to help homebuyers to find better house based on the residential preferences. According to the function of MCGP, homebuyers can set multiple housing goals with multiple aspiration levels. This increases the flexibility to find a suitable house. Compared with other classical methods such as checklist and analytic hierarchy process, MCGP is more efficient, especially while considering a lot of housing criteria and house alternatives. In order to demonstrate the usefulness of MCGP decision aid for housing selection, a real case study is then provided. Furthermore, ten volunteers are invited to participate in the empirical experiment. The results also validate the effectiveness and efficiency of MCGP decision aid.     

discovering the truth about aid

Economists in the House of Lords are rare; Russell Lewis interviews the celebrated sceptic of foreign aid - Lord Bauer, better known perhaps as Professor P. T. Bauer, and explores his still controversial views about inter-government aid and aspects of his eventful life.     

Market reaction to equity offer reasons: What information do managers reveal?

Prior studies have had limited success explaining the negative market reaction to common stock announcements using firm and offer specific variables. We employ apiecewise linear model to test the relationship between announcement returns and firm and offer specific variables by specific offer reason as stated by management. We find evidence that managers are signalling the quality of the new investment when issuing equity for the offer-motive capital expenditures; this is support for the announcement of the equity issue being a signal of wasteful investment. We also find that the announcement of equity issues signals overvaluation when the equity offer is for general purposes.     

Wealth effects of the Basle Accord on small banks

This paper examines the share price reactions of small commercial banks to the announcement of the Basle Accord. Previous studies document that large banks have negative price reactions to the announcement of the accord. Findings here show that small banks have positive share price reactions. Our overall evidence gives some support to the notion that small banks had excessive capital before the Basle Accord, and the Accord created wealth effects in the banking industry.     

世界华人财富论坛永久会址正式奠基

7月3日,世界华人财富论坛永久会址在四川省遂宁市正式奠基。首届年会将于2007年7月29日至8月2日举行,届时将有来自全球5000多名知名华商、专家和官员齐聚遂宁,共同研讨“中国与世界共赢”这一主题。世界华人财富论坛中心占地150多亩,总建筑面积为5万平方米,总投资逾10亿。世界华人财富论坛永久会址正式奠基     

Implementation of multi-agent incentive contracts with the principal's renegotiation offer

The purpose of this paper is to explore a mechanism for supporting desired equilibrium actions in a one-principal, multi-agent model when the principal makes a renegotiation offer. We show that there exists a mechanism in which the principal's most preferred mixed strategy is always supported. Received: 30 May 1997 / Accepted: 10 October 1998     

城镇居民金融资产与不动产财富效应的比较分析

城镇居民两种资产的财富效应呈现三个特点:一是住房资产的财富效应大于金融资产的财富效应;二是两种资产的财富效应差别不大;三是两种资产的财富效应较微弱。这表明:第一,住房对消费具有一定的支撑作用;第二,金融资产增值性不强和股市的波动限制财富效应的发挥;第三,较强的流动性约束制约住房资产的财富效应;第四,消费的过度敏感性使资产财富效应微弱。为了通过财富效应来促进消费,必须维持股市和房地产市场稳定的预期,大力发展金融市场,抑制住房价格的过快增长并促进住房市场平稳发展。     

股市财富效应对消费的影响研究

首先从理论上阐明了股市财富效应形成的机理以及股市财富效应影响消费的条件。然后,通过对中国数据的经验分析,利用相关性检验和因果检验,指出我国股市财富效应对消费存在着一定的影响;并提出了完善股市财富效应的消费传导机制的建议,以及通过调控股市来调控消费、稳定经济金融的观点。     

The Share Price Collapse—Analysing the Wealth Effect

Alan Budd and Geoffrey Dicks, of the London Business School, analyse the importance of the'Wealth Effect'and conclude that the decline in stock market prices should have little effect on the rate of economic growth.