Price transmission in the Spanish bovine sector: the BSE effect

A regime-switching vector error correction model is applied to monthly price data to assess the impact of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) outbreaks on price relationships and patterns of transmission among farm and retail markets for bovines in Spain. To evaluate the degree to which price transmission is affected by BSE food scares, a BSE food scare index is developed and used to determine regime switching. Results suggest that BSE scares affect beef producers and retailers differently. Consumer prices are found to be weakly exogenous and not found to react to BSE scares, while producer prices are conversely adjusted. The magnitude of the adjustment is found to depend on the magnitude of the BSE scare.     

Traceability, Liability, and Incentives for Food Safety and Quality

Recent food scares such as the discoveries of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy and E. coli -contaminated spinach have heightened interest in food traceability. Here, we show how exogenous increases in food traceability create incentives for farms and marketing firms to supply safer food by increasing liability costs. We model a stylized marketing chain composed of farms, marketers, and consumers. Unsafe food for consumers can be caused by either marketers or farms. We show that food safety declines with the number of farms and marketers and imperfect traceability from consumers to marketers dampens liability incentives to supply safer food by farms.     

Food scares, market power and price transmission: the UK BSE crisis

This paper is concerned with the impact of food scares, principallythe BSE crisis in the UK, and focuses on price transmissionin vertically related markets. We show that if market powerhas an effect on the farm–retail margin, this determinesthe specification of the cointegrating relationship and thusprovides a test of market power. The results for the UK beefchain suggest that we cannot reject the importance of marketpower. The impact of the BSE crisis on farm prices is foundto be more than double that on retail prices, thus corroboratingpublic concerns regarding a differential impact of food scareson retailers and producers.     

Food scares, advertising, and the demand for meat cuts in Great Britain

Retail demand systems for 19 different cuts of meat for beef, lamb, pork, bacon and poultry in Great Britain are estimated from monthly time series of consumer expenditure from 1989-2000 using a two stage budget allocation process and an LA/AIDS specification. The unconditional expenditure, own and cross price elasticities are derived for the individual meat cuts. The impact of adverse publicity from meat scares, especially BSE, and of positive publicity through consumer promotion and advertising are incorporated into the modelling. Meat scares produced a reallocation of consumer spending from red to white meats during the 1990s. The impact of species-based advertising was shown to have complex spillover effects both within and between meat species, and the response of consumer demand to advertising was considerably less than to adverse publicity.     

Willingness to Pay for Quality Labeled Meat in a Rural Area

The aim of this study is to identify consumer perceptions and attitudes toward quality labeled pork and beef using cross-sectional consumer data. Given the dramatic changes over the last years in the meat sector as a result of the recent food scares, the study can facilitate better communicating with consumers and gaining insight into their perceptions and behavior toward meat products. A consumer survey was conducted in the rural region of Thessaly in Greece in order to investigate (a) food quality perceptions, (b) attitudes toward pork and beef quality labels, and (c) intentions to purchase higher priced certified pork and beef. The findings suggest that sociodemographic and personal characteristics have an impact on consumer willingness to pay for such products and different market segments can be targeted by marketers and food policymakers.     

Decomposing the Variation in Generic Advertising Response over Time

A time-varying parameter model of fluid milk and cheese demand reveals that changes in age composition, race composition, and food spending patterns away from home were most important to changes in generic advertising response over time. Advertising response elasticities indicate that generic advertising could be enhanced by targeting young children households for fluid milk, and Asian/Hispanic households for cheese. Results also indicate that shifting targeted advertising efforts to the away-from-home market may increase generic cheese advertising response.     

The Generalized Composite Commodity Theorem and Food Demand Estimation

This article reports tests of aggregation over consumer food products and estimates of aggregate food demand elasticities. Evidence that food demand variables follow unit root processes leads us to build on and simplify existing tests of the Generalized Composite Commodity Theorem. We compute food demand elasticities using a method of cointegration that is shown to apply to a convenient but nonlinear functional form. Estimates are based on consumer reported expenditure data rather than commercial disappearance data.     

Promotion and Fast Food Demand

Many believe that fast food promotion is a significant cause of the obesity epidemic in North America. Industry members argue that promotion only reallocates brand shares and does not increase overall demand. We study the effect of fast food promotion on market share and total demand by estimating a discrete / continuous model of fast food restaurant choice and food expenditure that explicitly accounts for both spatial and temporal determinants of demand. Estimates are obtained using a unique panel of Canadian fast food consumers. The results show that promotion primarily increases demand and has a smaller effect on restaurant market shares.     

Capturing structural changes in French meat and fish demand over the period 1991 2002

A time-varying coefficient demand system, the Markov switchingalmost ideal demand model, is proposed to shed new light onchange over time in the structure of French meat and fish demand.The main feature of this model is that the switching mechanismfrom one structure of demand to the other is controlled by anunobserved variable that follows a Markov chain. Our model accuratelycaptures the two Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) crisesof recent years. We estimate that the 1996 BSE crisis lastedalmost three years, whereas the second BSE crisis for just lastedfive 4-week periods.     

Price Endogeneity and Food Demand in Urban China

Price endogeneity has been ignored in previous analyses of food demand in urban China. We exploit data provided by the China National Bureau of Statistics on agricultural commodity supply shifters and use reduced‐form price equations to account for price endogeneity. Applying our unique econometric approach to the analysis of provincial‐level food demand in China, we find strong statistical evidence of price endogeneity. Models that ignore price endogeneity result in substantially biased elasticities and misleading estimates of future food demand in China.     

Time-varying Armington elasticity and country-of-origin bias: from the dynamic perspective of the Japanese demand for beef imports

Elasticities of substitution, often called Armington elasticities, reflect incomplete substitutability because of perceived product characteristics. This study divides the determinants of the Japanese demand for beef imports into two factors: (i) substitution elasticity and (ii) country-of-origin bias, and demonstrate how these measurements are associated with trade policy and food scare events. The Japanese beef industry serves as a case study to evaluate the multifold impact of import liberalisation and a series of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) outbreaks. A time-varying parameter model is used to shed light on the dynamic effects of the import liberalisation and BSE outbreaks on the measurements. The estimation results reveal that the estimated substitutability and country-of-origin bias are very sensitive to the BSE cases, but not to the process of trade liberalisation. The results also confirm that as a result of the BSE outbreaks, the major factor of the Japanese demand for beef imports has changed from relative prices to the country-of-origin effect, thereby emphasising the importance of a traceability system and promotional activities, which would help in the formation of the country-of-origin effect.     

Food Demand in Russia: Heterogeneous Consumer Segments over Time

The Russian food system has undergone substantial changes. However, knowledge on how economic transition has affected the structural parameters of food demand is lacking. Based on a two‐stage LES‐LA/AIDS model and annual panel data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (1995–2010), we provide a comprehensive set of food demand elasticities for Russia along two dimensions. First, we estimate demand parameters for three characteristic time periods in order to trace changes during transition. Second, to account for the Russian population's diversity, we derive elasticities for five different consumer segments. These groups are established by a cluster analysis based on households' food purchases. Our findings suggest that demand for food is far from satiated in Russia. We find generally high unconditional expenditure and own‐price elasticities for food. Both expenditure and own‐price elasticities show slight decreases in absolute terms over time. Low expenditure elasticities for staple foods like bread or cereals and high values for luxury goods such as meat, alcohol and tobacco suggest considerable changes in the composition of food baskets with further income growth. Results indicate that food production at home loses in importance while more affluent households in particular increase their demand for food consumption away from home.     

Quantifying the structure of food demand in China: An econometric approach

This article examines food demand structure and its dynamics for 11 commodities in urban China. The analysis is based on household‐level expenditure survey data for two cross‐sectional surveys of Chinese households pertaining to food expenditure patterns during 1995 and 2003. Pre‐committed components of commodity demands, that are insensitive to economic variables, are explored. We use the generalized quadratic almost ideal demand system (GQAIDS) for its empirical superiority to the generalized almost ideal demand system (GAIDS), and estimate the associated parameters via full information maximum likelihood procedure (FIML) accounting for endogeneity of total expenditures on food for home consumption (FAH). We also use quality‐adjusted commodity unit values to control for quality differences resulting from commodity aggregation and food choice. Furthermore, we derive GQAIDS elasticity formulas, and estimate income elasticities without restrictions. The results partially support the hypothesis that an average Chinese household has incorporated elements of Western diet (fine grains) into traditional Chinese food diet over time. Moreover, the outcome of a simple test developed here points to possible preference changes for a majority of food staples under study.     

Structural change in urban Chinese food preferences

We undertake a range of tests for structural food preference change in urban China, using provincial‐level panel data from 2002 to 2010. We introduce a time transition function into the Generalized Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (GQAIDS) to represent consumer preferences. We apply this system to evaluate the demand structure for seven food groups. The use of the GQAIDS specification relaxes many empirical demand system restrictions associated with previous analyses of structural preference change. Our findings suggest that Chinese food preferences are continuing to evolve.     

Changing food consumption patterns in rural and urban Vietnam: Implications for a future food supply system

Rapid income growth and urbanisation could significantly change the composition of the food basket in many emerging economies. This study estimates a demand system, including 15 major food items in Vietnam, with multiyear household survey data. We find a large variation in the estimated price elasticities (–0.05 to –0.88) and expenditure elasticities (–0.16 to 2.56). Food types, urban status and income groups can explain this variation. We also find that the staple food, rice, is already an inferior good for rich urban households in Vietnam. Moreover, food preferences are evolving away from rice but towards animal proteins (fish, pork, chicken, eggs and milk), fruits and vegetables, irrespective of urban status and income groups. As the Vietnam economy continues to grow with a doubling of gross domestic product (GDP) in the next decade, per capita rice consumption in both urban and rural areas and across different income groups will continue to decline, whereas demand for other high‐value products will rise. Thus, government policy should focus on encouraging demand‐oriented food production. In addition, crop diversification at the farm level needs to improve substantially to meet the rising demand for these food products due to income growth and urbanisation.     

Legal systems, institutional environment, and food safety

In the aftermath of the recent food scares, the United States and the United Kingdom face major challenges to maintain a safe food system. Regulators on opposite sides of the Atlantic are facing rapid product and process innovations, changes in consumption behaviors, expansion of international trade, and discovery of new food hazards. The U.K. and the U.S. demonstrate different approaches to manage safety risks. This article will focus on two issues: the reasons behind the differences in the American and English policy approaches to food safety, and how these differences impact U.S. safety outcomes. A comparative legal framework is provided to understand how food safety is elicited in the economy and the incentive implications of the different institutional settings. These two different lenses, because they differ so, teach us about the fundamental sources of safety. The U.K.'s prevalent doctrine is parliamentary sovereignty and leads to a regulatory framework, while the U.S. is based on constitutional supremacy and relies on a legal framework. The source of safety under a regulatory framework is the government bureaucracy, while the U.S. legal framework provides an important point of departure—the constitutional standing of the firm and the consumer. We argue that while the U.K. system is structured to work through a regulatory framework to enhance the supply of safety in the economy, the U.S. system is much less directed. The legal system, the subject of this article, plays an important role not only in discouraging breach but also in acting as a check on the discretionary authority of the regulator. In the end, the U.S. and the U.K. may have equally safe food systems, but what differs is the fundamental source of the safety supply. The practical implication is that safety in the food system emerges from several sources, not just through regulation. Therefore, direct importation of U.K.‐style regulatory approaches may not be effective within a U.S. constitutional setting.     

Economic development,food demand and the consequences for agricultural resource requirements: an application to Indonesia

We analyse food demand patterns of Indonesian households from a resource intensity perspective and quantify the impact of changed demand patterns on the use of three major resource inputs: fossil fuel; land; and water in agricultural production. Using Indonesian Family Life Survey data, 13 major food items (which constitute 70 per cent of food expenditure) are categorised into low, moderate and high resource intensity, and income elasticity and Engel curves are estimated for the period from 1997 to 2007. Our results show that income growth in Indonesia is associated with demand patterns that are more resource intensive. By 2007, per capita requirements of fossil fuel, land and water increased by 42.7 per cent (3.13 MJ), 44.9 per cent (1.24 m²) and 50.4 per cent (2.1 kL), respectively, relative to 1997. The results imply that, at least for Indonesia, changed food demand patterns resulting from economic development will increase the demand for natural resources substantially.     

Tracing the Effects of Agricultural Commodity Prices and Food Costs

We estimate a system of product and input-demand equations for food-processing industries to trace the links among farm commodity prices, food-processing costs, and food prices. Disembodied technical change, which likely reflects increasing consumer demand for convenience and product variety, has sharply reduced agricultural materials demand relative to most other food-processing inputs. This implies weakening impacts of farm price shocks on food prices. But improving quality and falling relative prices for agricultural inputs, in combination with increasing factor substitution, has counteracted these forces to encourage greater usage of agricultural inputs in food processing, and limit these trends.     

Information,Certification and Demand for Food Safety: Evidence from an In‐store Experiment in Mumbai

Is demand for safe food in developing countries low because of limited ability to pay, or because of lack of consumer awareness and absence of credible certification? To answer this question we conducted a controlled market experiment in Mumbai, India, selling grapes with credible certification labels alongside unlabeled grapes while providing randomly selected consumers with information on salient features of food safety certification. We confirm that informed consumers are more likely to purchase labeled grapes, controlling for prior information and attitudes, and using two (intensive versus extensive) information treatments. Policies related to information/certification could be an important component of improving public health by mobilising latent demand for food safety and hence supply of safer food for the public.     

Food demand elasticities for Australia

There is renewed interest in robust estimates of food demand elasticities at a disaggregated level not only to analyse the impact of changing food preferences on the agricultural sector, but also to establish the likely impact of pricing incentives on households. Using data drawn from two national Household Expenditure Surveys covering the periods 1998/1999 and 2003/2004, and adopting an Almost Ideal Demand System approach that addresses the zero observations problem, this paper estimates a food demand system for 15 food categories for Australia. The categories cover the standard food items that Australian households demand routinely. Own‐price, cross‐price and expenditure elasticity estimates of the Marshallian and Hicksian types have been derived for all categories. The parameter estimates obtained in this study represent the first integrated set of food demand elasticities based on a highly disaggregated food demand system for Australia, and all accord with economic intuition.