事件研究法:判别EMH的重要方法

金融市场有效性假说是现代金融研究的重要理论之一。文章首先引入了有效市场假说的定义,进而介绍了FFJR方法及事件研究法的基本思路。通过事件研究法在有效市场假说中的应用,归纳了假设检验中的重点和解决方案。根据金融市场的特点,提出了事件研究法应用于有效市场假说的几点建议。     

标准金融学与行为金融学的冲突

以有效市场假说为基础的标准金融理论存在着假设缺陷。一个新的金融研究领域开始出现 ,这就是行为金融学理论。标准金融学与行为金融学存在着理论上冲突。从标准金融理论到行为金融学 ,是从研究金融市场“应该”怎样运行到研究金融市场“实际”是怎样运行的发展。这两种理论之间存在着互补性     

基于有效资本市场假说的文献综述

本文在文献回顾的基础上,对资本市场中的有效市场假说问题展开理论评述。由于学界对这个问题争论颇多,逐渐形成两种理论假说来解释实证结果,由于一些与CAPM模型预测不一致的“异象”或“迷”,80年代后又由此产生一些争论。     

行为金融学与非理性决策

现代金融理论是建立在资本资产定价模型（CAPM）和有效市场假说（EMH）两大基石上的。由于理性经济人假设与实际的偏差,经典现代金融学遇到了一些被称为未解之谜的现实问题,行为金融学是从人们的实际决策行为出发来研究和解释金融市场的相关问题。     

行为金融学与非理性决策

现代金融理论是建立在资本资产定价模型(CAPM)和有效市场假说(EMH)两大基石上的.由于理性经济人假设与实际的偏差,经典现代金融学遇到了一些被称为未解之谜的现实问题,行为金融学是从人们的实际决策行为出发来研究和解释金融市场的相关问题.     

资本结构的市场时机选择理论综述

一、公司融资活动中的市场时机选择行为 最早系统地提出公司融资的市场时机选择假说的是Stein（1996），其研究表明，在股票市场非理性、公司股价被高估时，理性的管理者应该发行更多的股票以利用投资者的过度热情；当股票被过分低估时，应该回购股票。他将这一现象称为企业融资的“市场时机选择假说”。迄今为止，检验公司融资活动的实证研究大多以“市场价值／账面价值比（M／B）”来代表权益的市场时机，以利率代表债务市场的时机。实证结果证实了“市场时机选择假说”，公司的各种融资活动如权益发行、权益回购、债务发行、国际发行等都在试图利用市场时机。     

从行为金融理论角度质疑有效市场假说

有效市场假说是现代金融理论的重要基石,其理论基础是理性人和完全套利假定.20世纪80年代以来在西方国家兴起的行为金融理论,以心理学的研究成果为依据,从投资者的实际决策心理出发,重新审视了主宰金融市场的人为因素对市场的影响,对有效市场假说的理论基础进行了反思,并指出了投资者的行为并非是完全理性的,套利行为也是有限的.     

中国股票市场有效性特征的实证分析

有效市场假说是金融市场的一个理想化境界,却得到大量的实证支持。从中国的现实情况来看,股市有效性的检验主要集中在是否具有弱式有效,国内已有不少学者做了实证研究,由1993年以前的研究数据得出的结论是非有效市场,此后的研究大多支持弱式有效,这反映中国股市存在明显的阶段性变化。此外,一些学者对若干个区间子样本的实证结果也说明市场效率随发展阶段而不断提高。     

现代商业银行风险管理分析——基于行为金融学理论

行为金融学是以期望理论为基础，运用心理学、社会学和人类学的研究方法研究投资者的行为方式，进而研究资产的价格决定问题。行为金融理论被很多人认为是对有效市场假说最有力的挑战。随着金融全球化及金融市场的波动加剧，各国银行受到了前所未有的风险挑战，对风险管理的研究也就越来越受到重视和显得突出。本文采用行为金融理论对现代商业银行如何有效的进行风险管理做了系统的分析，用行为金融理论解决现实金融问题。     

多层次资本市场与资源配置效率问题分析

一、定义资本市场的资源配置效率国外学者对资本市场效率的研究主要从微观角度出发,如资本市场有效性假说(EMH)和詹姆斯。托宾的金融市场效率观,着重从信息和价格形成方面探讨制约证券市场效率实     

A comparison between qualitative and quantitative histories: the example of the efficient market hypothesis

ABSTRACT

This paper uses the example of the history of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and citation analysis in order to investigate some differences between qualitative history and a quantitative history. The history of the EMH provides a telling example of the way quantitative analyses can supply different perspectives on the qualitative history of this hypothesis or complement it. For instance, since the EMH was proposed, several criticisms emerged. In addition, the definition and the scope of this hypothesis have been modified several times. Although the qualitative history of the EMH refers to these criticisms and these alternative definitions and scopes, qualitative tools cannot provide a clear measure of the impact of these criticisms and these modifications among economists. By studying the dissemination of the EMH, its major criticisms, and the answers economists provided, citation analysis sheds a different light on the history of the EMH.     

Re-examining the Turkish stock market efficiency: Evidence from nonlinear unit root tests

This paper re-examines the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) in the Turkish stock market by utilizing the recent developments in nonlinear unit root tests. To this end, we first employ the linearity test developed by Harvey et al. (2008) and then carry out the nonlinear ESTAR unit root test recently developed by Kruse (2011). The results show that Borsa Istanbul stock price index series have nonlinear behavior and follow the random walk (non-stationary) process, supporting the EMH in Turkish stock market which has weak-form efficiency.     

限价委托执行时间分布与市场有效性检验

布朗运动可以看成连续时间的随机游动,从连续交易的角度看,交易价格服从布朗运动的假设等价于市场有效假设.在将股票价格描述为几何布朗运动的基础上,本文从布朗运动首达时的分布推导出限价委托执行等待时间的分布.对实际数据计算出的等待时间样本是否服从布朗运动假设下的等待时间分布进行检验,以此对市场有效性作出判断.检验采用日内交易高频数据,探讨市场微观结构对价格发现的作用.本文采用上海50指数样本股进行实证,得出的结论不支持市场有效性假设.     

Rational Expectations and Price Determination in the US Oats Market

This paper develops a simultaneous rational expectations model of the US oats market Consistent estimates of the structural parameters are obtained by the instrumental variables method and 15 of 16 parameter estimates are significant at the 5 per cent level Estimated elasticities suggest that hedged stocks are more responsive to price changes than unhedged stocks, and that consumption demand for oats is more responsive to income changes than to changes in price. Post-sample forecasts of the spot price derived from this model are employed to test the semi-strong form efficient markets hypothesis (EMH), although the futures price outperforms the model as a predictor of the spot price. Hence the EMH cannot be rejected     

Beyond the efficient markets hypothesis: Towards a new paradigm

To go beyond the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) we suppose that the stock market can be in one of three states: (1) a fundamental state, where share prices are determined largely as in the EMH; (2) a bubble or bull market state, where share prices are above their fundamental levels but are expected to continue to rise further, and (3) a bear market state, where shares are held exclusively by irrational agents and rational agents cannot exploit the overvaluation because of short-selling constraints. Also, heterogeneous rational expectations may help explain some features of stock market behaviour.     

Testing exchange rate efficiency: the case of euro–dollar

This paper tests the semi‐strong efficiency of the euro–dollar currency market by introducing a simple heuristic test, based on the ‘general‐to‐specific’ methodology and meant to include as two specific sub‐cases the ‘efficient market hypothesis’ (EMH) in the currency market as well as alternative theories implying a time dependent process of propagation of information. According to the results of our nested test, the ‘efficient market hypothesis’ in the euro–dollar currency market is rejected.     

In defense of fundamental analysis: A critique of the efficient market hypothesis

Conclusion The main shortcomings of the EMH are similar to those of the long-run competitive theories that focus exclusively on equilibrium outcomes while ignoring the entrepreneurial activity that generates those outcomes. The EMH gives the impression that there is a difference between investing in the stock market and investing in a business. However, the stock market doesn't have alife of its own. The success or failure of investment in stocks depends ultimately on the same factors that determine success or failure of any business. Statistical tests that supposedly validate the EMH framework are based on a flawed method and a failure to understand that the main cause behind the instability in financial markets is the monetary policies of the central bank. Frank Shostak is chief economist at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming Future, Sydney, Australia. The views expressed herein are his own and do not necessarily represent those of Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming Futures. The author wishes to express his gratitude to the very helpful comments of two anonymous referees.     

分形市场假说在沪深股票市场中的实证研究

首先介绍并分析了有效市场假说的不足，指出不切实际的简化和线性思维范式是导致有效市场假说倍受批评的原因。其次介绍分形市场假说，很好地解决了有效市场假说暴露出的问题，使得对市场的描述更切合实际。最后在沪探股票市场中对分形市场假说进行实证检验，得出沪深两市股指收益率具有时间尺度不变性和大于0.5的Hurst指数，分别为0.69和0.64。表明分形市场假说在两地股市中成立。     

期货价格波动分析的弹性系统模型

有效市场理论是市场价格波动的基础理论,然而,其假设及分类的理想化,很难很好解释复杂的市场现象,为此,本文提出了趋于有效的假说,使其与现实复杂的实际市场吻合。在此基础上,借鉴物理学的弹性系统模型,对影响价格因素细分,进而构建价格波动的弹性系统模型,来更好地解释价格波动的特性和主要动力源泉,并为市场分析提供有效的思路。     

国际投资组合选择理论研究进展

国际投资组合选择理论研究的是在一定的假设条件下,当经济实现均衡时,投资者所应持有的本国与外国金融资产的比例。它的发展有5个特征:从追求金融市场的局部均衡到追求经济的一般均衡;从不考虑投资者的存在到考虑投资者个人效用的最大化;从单纯的理论模型构建到结合现实数据进行实证检验;从假设金融市场完全到考虑金融市场不完全的情况;从假设金融市场一体化到考虑金融市场存在分割的情况。