Flexible Labor Regulations and Informality in Egypt

Do more flexible labor market regulations reduce informal employment in formal firms? This paper examines the effects of changes in labor regulations on the incidence of formal employment. Using the case of Egypt, we study the effects of the introduction of more flexible labor regulations in 2003 on the probability that non‐contractual workers will be granted a formal employment contract. To identify the effect of the law and control for potential confounding factors, we use a difference‐in‐difference estimator that measures the difference in the pre‐ and post‐law probability of obtaining a formal contract across a treatment group of non‐contractual workers initially employed in formal firms and a comparison group of non‐contractual workers initially employed in informal firms. The latter serve as a useful comparison group since informal firms are unlikely to formalize as a result of the law, so that the only way their workers can become formal is to move to another firm. Our findings show that the passage of the new labor law did in fact increase the probability of transitioning to formal employment for non‐contractual workers employed in formal firms by about 3–3.5 percentage points, or the equivalent of at least a fifth of informal workers in formal firms.     

Family ties and employment behavior: The role of financial intermediaries

We study the interaction effect of financial intermediaries and family ties on labor participation and employment type in China. Although existing studies examine these effects separately, we investigate the effects of both factors in one model. We give empirical evidence to support earlier arguments that family ties negatively affect labor force participation and positively affect self‐/family‐employment behavior and that financial development positively affects labor force participation. Departing from the extant literature, our results overall indicate a compensating effect of financial intermediaries for family ties in labor participation and employment type. We further argue that there are gender, urban/rural, and age differences in the role of financial intermediaries. The effect of financial intermediaries on the strength of family ties is more relevant for female, rural, and younger people compared to male, urban, and older people.     

技术进步就业挤出效应的产业技术特征研究

在分析技术进步就业挤出效应作用机理的基础上,利用扩展的C-D生产函数模型对就业挤出效应进行测度推导,选取劳动密集度等5个变量对产业技术特征作描述性度量,在此基础上建立挤出效应的产业技术因素影响模型,利用我国制造业25个细分行业数据进行实证分析。结果显示,劳动密集度对就业挤出效应存在显著的负向影响,表明劳动密集型产业难以通过技术进步节约劳动力投入,进而为劳动密集型产业转移路径提供了理论参考依据。     

Macroeconomic shocks and the probability of being employed

Macroeconomic theories take polar views on the importance of choice versus chance. At the micro level, it seems realistic to assume that both dimensions play a role for individual employment outcomes, although it might be difficult to separate these two effects. Nevertheless the choice and chance dimension are seldom treated symmetrically in models that use micro data. We estimate a logistic model of the probability of being employed among married or cohabitating women that are in the labor force. Besides variables that measure individual characteristics (choice), we allow a full set of indicator variables for observation periods that represent potential effects of aggregate shocks (chance) on job probabilities. To reduce the number of redundant indicator variables automatic model selection is used, and we assess the economic interpretation of the statistically significant indicator variables with reference to a theoretical framework that allows for friction in the Norwegian labor market. In addition, we also estimate models that use female and male unemployment rates as ‘sufficient’ variables for the chance element in individual employment outcomes. Data are for Norway for the period 1988q2–2008q4.     

The consequences of labor market flexibility: Panel evidence based on survey data

We introduce a new data set on hiring and firing restrictions for 21 OECD countries for the period 1984-1990. The data are based on surveys of business people in the countries covered, so the indices we use are subjective in nature. Controlling for country and time fixed effects, and using dynamic panel data techniques, we find evidence that increasing the flexibility of the labor market increases both the employment rate and the rate of participation in the labor force. A conservative estimate suggests that if France were to make its labor markets as flexible as those in the US, its employment rate would increase 1.6 percentage points, or 14% of the employment gap between the two countries. The estimated effects are larger in the female than in the male labor market, although both groups seem to have similar long-run coefficients. There is also some evidence that more flexibility leads to lower unemployment rates and to lower rates of long-term unemployment. We also find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that inflexible labor markets produce “jobless recoveries” and introduce more unemployment persistence.     

宏观经济景气波动对就业增长的影响

中国不成熟的市场经济和特殊的人口环境使得用就业弹性和奥肯定律均无法有效反映我国经济增长与就业关系,更无法刻画经济波动对就业的冲击。本文从宏观经济景气波动影响就业增长的三个路径：劳动力供给、劳动力需求和政府公共就业政策来建立系统的分析模型,以探析经济波动与就业增长的长期均衡关系和滞后冲击效应。在劳动力供给系统中,经济波动使经济活动人口增多,加快了就业增长;在劳动力需求系统中,经济波动不利于经济增长,从而不利于劳动力需求增长;在政府就业促进政策系统中,社会保障和就业的投入缓和了经济波动对就业增长的冲击。     

Labor market decisions of married women: With emphasis on part-time employment

Part-time employment may be viewed as a bridge between nonemployment and full-time employment or as an alternative to full-time employment. For married women with young children, part-time employment represents an efficient labor market solution to balancing the responsibilities of career and family. This paper estimates the probability of part-time employment for married women by utilizing a multinomial logit model for data extracted from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics [2000]. The paper focuses on the analysis of qualitative dependent variables to predict the probabilities for three distinct labor market decisions. The sample is further stratified to capture the effects of age on a married woman's labor market decision. A clearer picture of part-time employment should provide important insight into the labor market decisions of married women.     

Relation between growth and unemployment in a model with labor-force participation and adverse labor institutions

Based on labor search models with an exogenous labor force, existing papers have found a negative relation between long-run economic growth and unemployment. Motivated by the fact that the labor force participation has changed substantially across OECD countries, this paper revisits the long-run relation by taking account of endogenous labor-force participation. We find that, via the effects on employment, changes in labor market institutions may increase or decrease long-run economic growth. Moreover, depending upon the effects on the labor force and employment, these labor market institutions may increase or decrease unemployment rates in the long run. Thus, changes in labor market institutions lead to a non-monotone relation between long-run economic growth and unemployment that is consistent with the data.     

Employment effects of foreign acquisition

This paper investigates the employment effects of foreign acquisitions in acquired firms in Swedish manufacturing during the 1990s; a period characterized by a dramatic increase in foreign ownership. We find some evidence of positive employment effects in acquired firms and it seems that the employment of skilled labor increases more than that of less-skilled labor. Our results indicate that the positive employment effects are more pronounced in acquired non-MNEs than in Swedish MNEs. Furthermore, we observe shifts in skill intensities toward higher shares of skilled labor in non-MNEs taken over by foreign MNEs, but not in acquired Swedish MNEs.     

二元经济结构下最低工资的就业效应研究——基于劳动力市场的视角

现阶段我国整体就业形势不容乐观,分析最低工资对就业的影响具有重要的现实意义。通过对我国劳动力市场分割条件下最低工资的就业效应进行实证分析发现,最低工资对竞争性行业劳动力市场（城市二级劳动力市场）就业有显著的正面影响,对行政垄断行业劳动力市场（城市一级劳动力市场）就业的正面影响则很小。因此,根据我国劳动力市场的具体情况,合理设置最低工资标准有利于促进就业。     

Transitions across labor market states including formal/informal division in Egypt

This study examines the worker transitions across labor market states including formal/informal division using panel data of 2006 to 2012 from Egypt. We generate a broad set of facts about labor market dynamics in Egypt. We first develop transition probabilities by gender across different labor market states including formal/informal sectors utilizing Markov transition processes. Government employment is the most persistent labor market state for both men and women and the out of labor force is the second most persistent labor market state for women. Unemployment is the most mobile labor market state. Informal private wage work and self‐employed–agriculture are also relatively mobile labor market states. We next identify the effects of individual, household and job characteristics on different mobility patterns by estimating multinomial logit models. We find that gender, age, education, experience, and several sectors of economic activity are associated with the transition probabilities between the labor market states considered such as formal wage, informal wage, self‐employment, unemployment, government employment, and out of labor market. Education, in particular, university degree or above is noted to play a vital role in the probability of transitions across several labor market states.     

THE SHORT‐RUN EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF RECENT MINIMUM WAGE CHANGES: EVIDENCE FROM THE AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY

This paper presents early evidence on the employment effects of state minimum wage increases enacted between January 2013 and January 2015. As of 2015, we estimate that relatively large minimum wage increases (defined as those exceeding $1) reduced employment among low‐skilled population groups by just over 1 percentage point. Smaller minimum wage increases, as well as increases linked to inflation indexation provisions, appear to have had much smaller (and possibly positive) effects on employment over our sample period. The estimates thus raise the potential importance of nonlinearities in the minimum wage's effects, which are consistent with standard models of the labor market. (JEL H11, J08, J23)     

Migration and Wage‐setting: Reassessing the Labor Market Effects of Migration*

In this paper we employ a wage‐setting approach to analyze the labor market effects of immigration into Germany from 1980 to 2004. This enables us to consider labor market rigidities, which are prevalent in Europe. We find that the elasticity of the wage‐setting curve is particularly high for young workers. Moreover, natives and foreigners are imperfect substitutes. The wage and employment effects of immigration depend on the skill structure of the immigrant workforce. Because the foreign labor supply shift has mainly affected the high‐skilled labor market segment, the 4 percent increase of the workforce through immigration has not increased either aggregate or foreign unemployment.     

外来劳动力挤占了本地居民的就业机会吗??

城市就业包容性的提升是实现城镇化发展的重要内容,而异质外来移民对原有居民的就业机会将产生不同影响.文章运用动态监测数据,按劳动力的技能水平、所属行业和流入时期分析城市劳动力市场的就业包容性,衡量人力资本等因素在异质外来劳动力就业过程中的作用机制.研究发现：(1)总体而言,人力资本的差异性取代传统的行业壁垒已成为获取就业机会的主要因素.(2)进一步使用工具变量,对劳动力组群的就业决定模型进行估计发现,外来劳动力占比每上升10％,城市原有劳动力的就业率将下降0．04－1．99个百分点,表现为外来劳动力对城市原有低技能劳动力就业率的影响并不明显,但对高技能劳动力的就业率产生显著冲击,且此现象在部分高进入门槛行业尤为明显.(3)城市劳动力市场对不同时期流入的高技能组劳动力的包容性显著低于低技能组,高技能组劳动力之间存在更高的替代性.(4)与本地劳动力的就业率相比,新进入的外来劳动力对前期进入的外来劳动力的就业率的影响会更大,且这种影响同样会随着受教育程度的提高而递增.因此,在完善就业市场的同时,应在就业的前置和后置环节制定更有针对性的人才培养机制和引入措施.     

The labor market impact of immigration in Western Germany in the 1990s

In this article we estimate the wage and employment effects of recent immigration in Western Germany. Using administrative data for the period 1987-2001 and a labor-market equilibrium model, we find that the substantial immigration of the 1990s had very little adverse effects on native wages and on their employment levels. Instead, it had a sizeable adverse employment effect on previous immigrants as well as a small adverse effect on their wages. These asymmetric results are partly driven by a higher degree of substitution between old and new immigrants in the labor market and in part by the rigidity of wages in less than flexible labor markets. In a simple counter-factual experiment we show that in a world of perfect wage flexibility and no unemployment insurance the wage-bill loss of old immigrants would be much smaller.     

Fiscal Effects of Minimum Wages: An Analysis for Germany

Abstract. Against the background of the current discussion of statutory minimum wages in Germany, this paper analyzes the potential employment and fiscal effects of such a policy. Based on estimated labor demand elasticities obtained from a structural labor demand model, the empirical results imply that minimum wages in Germany will be associated with significant employment losses among marginal and low- and semi-skilled full-time workers. Even though minimum wages will lead to increased public revenues from income taxes and social security benefits, they will result in a significant fiscal burden, due to increased unemployment benefits and decreased revenues from corporate taxes.     

Immigration and remittances in a two-country model of growth with labor market frictions

We present a North-South model with labor market frictions and labor migration to study the dynamic implications of workers mobility on employment, capital accumulation and welfare. In the baseline model, the Northern country is able to control immigration flows by setting a cap on the number of foreign workers. We find that, despite an increase in migration displaces native employment in the short-run, a permanent raise of the migration cap stimulates capital accumulation, improves labor market conditions and increases social welfare in the long run. In an extension of the model, we also test the long-run effects of a pro-employment protectionist policy consisting in imposing a distortionary tax on immigrant employment. We find that the protectionist policy in North, while increasing national welfare, damages the macroeconomic performance of the domestic economy and is not effective in improving native employment.     

Job creation and job destruction in the presence of informal markets

In developing economies, the fraction of informal workers can be as high as 70% of total employment. For economies with significant informal sectors, business cycle fluctuations and labor market policy interventions can have important effects not only on the unemployment rate, but also on the allocation of workers across regulated and unregulated jobs. In this paper, using worker flows data from Brazil, we build, calibrate, and simulate a two-sector search and matching labor market model, in which firms have the choice of hiring workers formally or informally. We show that our model can explain well the main cyclical patterns that lead to those cyclical reallocations. We also show how the effect of government interventions in the labor market depend on the magnitude of the reallocation of labor across regulated and unregulated sectors. For our calibration, policies that decrease the cost of formal jobs, or increase the cost of informality, raise the share of formal employment while reducing unemployment.     

转型背景下城镇就业问题初探——以山西省为例

在转型发展的推动下,山西省城镇就业规模逐步扩大,就业结构趋于优化,但城镇就业人员增长缓慢,所占比重偏低,非公有经济就业规模偏小,城镇居民家庭平均每户就业面比较小。"十二五"期间,山西省要以转型发展为基本动力,通过改善投资结构、大力发展非公有经济、调整财政支出结构、鼓励自主创业等措施,进一步扩大城镇就业规模,解决好涉及到每一个家庭的就业问题。     

Determinants of Labor Market Participation and Wages of North Korean Female Refugees in South Korea

This paper uses data from a survey on 289 North Korean female refugees who arrived in South Korea in 2007 to understand the determinants of their economic adaption in the South Korean labor market. More specifically, we look at the effects of job finding channels and government policies on the labor market participation and wages of these women. We find that job finding through both personal contacts and public employment networks increases the probability of finding employment, but the former, especially job finding through contacts with South Koreans, is the most effective route to finding employment. In addition, jobs with higher wages are acquired in employment attained from South Korean referrals, followed by South Korean government agencies and those from North Korean refugee contacts. We further find that labor market participation is negatively affected by both public benefits and private transfers possibly because of increases in the reservation wages of job seekers.