Laissez‐faire,the Irish famine,and British financial crisis

The decision in 1847 to cut Treasury spending on public relief efforts during the Irish famine is generally attributed by economic historians to the pervasive influence of ‘laissez‐faire’ ideas on the Whig government of Lord John Russell. This article draws on the papers of political leaders and contemporary financial information to argue that economic reasons were the trigger for the change in policy. Robert Peel and Charles Wood's macroeconomic policies of the 1840s, including the gold standard, the Bank Charter Act, and corn law repeal, left the Whigs unable to borrow to finance relief efforts in Ireland without panicking markets. The scaling back of public assistance programmes that resulted from this—and which increased mortality at the height of the Irish famine—was the unintended result of Peel and Wood's economic policies, in the context of the Whig government's parliamentary weakness.     

A distributional approach to comparing vulnerability,applied to rural provinces in Thailand and Vietnam

Vulnerability to poverty is an important social indicator of well-being. Yet, comparisons of vulnerability over time or space lack robustness as long as they are based on single measures or use specific poverty lines. We demonstrate that a distributional analysis, based on stochastic dominance orders, can help. Using data from six rural provinces of Thailand and Vietnam, we establish cumulative distribution functions for income and consumption at the provincial level and show how they can provide ethically robust vulnerability comparisons.     

The politics of famine and reform in rural China

While the causes of the Great Leap Famine must be sought in politics, the general literature has tended to place too much emphasis on the role of top leaders. Focusing on the commune mess hall as a key institutional link, the paper points to systematic patterns in the incidence of famine across the provinces and suggests that these patterns were embedded in China's political history dating back to the communist takeover. The paper also argues that the Great Leap Famine induced profound disillusionment with agrarian radicalism and laid the cognitive and political foundations for dismantling the commune system in China.     

Globalization,transparency and economic growth: The vulnerability of Chinese firms to macroeconomic shocks

The process of globalization encompasses economic and financial integration. The abolition of capital controls and the dismantling of barriers of different kinds will expose previously sheltered companies to shocks originating in the global economic arena. Policy-makers in already globalized countries have learned that market participants should be prepared in due time to meet the new exposure to fluctuating rates of exchange, interest and inflation. China has recently adopted a version of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in an effort to improve the quality of information available for risk management and for pricing of risk. This paper analyzes the gains in transparency from the implementation of IFRS in Europe as of January 2005 and reports no improvements in regard to the macroeconomic impact on firms. Based on this experience, improvements for Chinese adoption are suggested. The paper presents a framework for how to understand and measure the impact of different scenarios on corporate performance. It also elaborates on how to communicate the macroeconomic effects to external stakeholders of the firm in a way that should foster further economic growth in China.     

朝着现代化、市场化、国际化的方向迈进——中国近期外商投资立法述评

本文首先简要回顾了中国利用外资立法的历程与体会,在此基础上,分三个方面予以展开：一是从普遍欢迎到从优鼓励;二是从管理较严到逐步放宽;三是司法、仲 裁实践对外商投资企业法的适用和促进,最后,提出了对进一步完善中国外商投资法制的思考与建议。     

培育新型农民，推进农民的现代化转化

根据建设社会主义新农村战略的本质要求,结合我国农民的现状和特点,在查阅大量数据和文献的基础上,文章详细分析了农民向现代化产业者进行转化的必要性、有利因素和制约因素,并分别从教育、政治、经济、文化等方面对如何实行农民的现代化转化进行了初步的探讨。     

Modernization,inter-caste marriage,and dowry: An analytical perspective

As economic growth and development occurs in India, it has been thought that dowry would decline as an institution. However, the practice of dowry has rapidly spread to regions in India where previously it was not extensively practiced and dowry inflation may be occurring. In this paper, a simple analytical model of dowry, based upon caste determined status differentials, is developed. The model assumes that some inter-caste marriage occurs. The implications of the model are that gross dowry inflation is fueled by economic growth, but net dowry remains unchanged. More importantly, unequal growth stimulates an expansion of the practice of dowry to lower castes.     

On the causes of China''s agricultural crisis and the great leap famine

Recently researchers have conducted extensive investigations on China's Great Leap crisis. In this article, we critically review this literature and argue that, since the grain production collapse was not the only factor that led to the famine, the causes of these two catastrophes require separate examination. At the theoretical level multidimensional factors were responsible for the crisis. However, existing empirical findings mainly support the exit right hypothesis to explain the dramatic productivity fluctuations in Chinese agriculture, and support grain availability and the urban-biased food distribution system as important causes of the famine. We suggest that additional empirical research is needed to assess the relative importance of the proposed causes.     

毛泽东、邓小平与中国社会主义现代化建设

现代化,作为一个经济社会发展目标,是人类所共同追求的。毛泽东与邓小平两位伟人对现代化建设问题进行了卓有成效的探索。毛泽东是中国特色社会主义现代化事业的开拓者和奠基人,邓小平推进了中国式的社会主义现代化建设。这些理论对于我们全面建设小康社会,具有重要的指导意义。     

农村工业化、农业现代化和农村城市化的关系探讨

农业现代化是一个国家农业发展的最终目标，也代表了人类进步。然而在我国实现农业现代化是一个长期的过程，首先要走一条农村工业化道路，农村工业化将有助于加速实现农业现代化。乡镇工业是农村工业化的载体，也是农村工业化的实现模式，因此，合理规范发展乡镇工业是农村工业化的核心。同时，农村工业化的结果必然会逐渐形成农村城市化格局，农村的城市化体系为农业现代化提供社会基础和制度保障。     

现代化与市场经济

时光进入21世纪，深圳经济特区又一次肩负起崭新的历史使命：用5～10年的时间，在全国率先实现现代化。2000年，不但是人类历史上一个特别的年份，对于400万深圳人来说，更具有特殊的意义：深圳经济特区将迎来她成立20周年的庆典，开始她率先实现现代化的新尝试和新努力。这一年恰逢农历龙……     

中药现代化之路

<正>中国还是中药大国吗?在国际市场上一年高达２００亿美元的植物药贸易额中,我国出口的产品只占５%左右的市场份额,且大部分为附加值低的中药原料。在中成药数十亿美元的贸易额中,只批准有２０个汉方制剂的日本,处方主要来自《伤寒论》和《金匮要略》,原料 ７５%又由我国输入,在国际市场的占有率却达到了     

Poverty and vulnerability in the Punjab,Pakistan: A multilevel analysis

This study estimates the prevalence and extent of vulnerability to poverty in the Punjab province of Pakistan. A multilevel model is used to analyze survey data of about 90,000 households distributed across 150 towns/tehsils. Empirical estimates show that the vulnerability rate is higher than the rate of poverty, and poverty-induced vulnerability is higher than risk-induced vulnerability. Moreover, idiosyncratic-vulnerability is higher than covariate-vulnerability. Unlike previous studies that find poverty to be a rural phenomenon, this research shows that poverty and vulnerability are equally high in urban areas. A high level of urban vulnerability adds urgency to anti-poverty interventions given a rapid urbanization in Pakistan.     

China's vulnerability to currency crisis: A KLR signals approach

In this paper we use the Kaminsky–Lizondo–Reinhart (KLR) [Kaminsky, G., Lizondo, S., Reinhart, C., 1998. Leading Indicators of Currency Crises. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 45, 1–48.] approach to conduct an ex-post study of the probabilities of China suffering a currency crisis during the period of January 1991 to December 2004. Two high-probability periods are identified: July 1992–July 1993 and August 1998–May 1999. The first period correctly predicts China's 1994 devaluation. The second period predicts currency devaluation in the aftermath of the Asian crisis, which did not occur. The results of the model indicate that the fundamentals were weak enough for China to experience contagion of the Asian crisis, and raise the question of the possible role of China's institutional arrangements in preventing the crisis. The paper further analyzes the economic fundamentals of China that drive the high probability of crises, and provides some suggestions for further reform.     

Forward market intervention,endogenous speculation,and exchange rate variability

In a stochastic macroeconomic model, this paper studies the desirability of intervention in the forward exchange market to stabilize the spot rate from the short-run and long-run perspectives. Behavior of forward speculation is endogenized in the light of the Lucas critique. Numerical simulation suggests that such intervention is much less desirable in the long-run than in the short-run. Only when domestic monetary disturbance is present, such intervention may be desirable both in the short-run and in the long-run, provided that price adjustment is sufficiently elastic.