Market inefficiencies surrounding energy announcements

We use sequential energy inventory announcements to shed new light on the informational efficiency of financial markets. Our findings provide clear evidence of inefficiency in crude oil futures and stock markets. This inefficiency can be exploited by sophisticated traders. We examine the effect of market liquidity on the efficient incorporation of information in this setting. We also construct a predictor that can predict inventory surprises and preannouncement returns in-sample and out-of-sample. Finally, we develop a combination forecast that can be used as a proxy for market expectations of oil inventory announcements.     

“一带一路”背景下人民币国际化的原油计价研究

在"一带一路"倡议下,人民币国际化的原油计价面临着重大机遇:中国与"一带一路"沿线能源出口国利益互补、亚洲缺少原油定价中心、全球出现"去美元化"的趋势以及人民币国际化具备强有力支撑等条件,但同时也面临着资本管制与原油期货市场流动性的冲突、较低开放度的中国金融市场无法为人民币提供畅通的回流路径以及"新特里芬难题"等挑战。借鉴相关发展经验,应积极推进人民币原油期货市场建设、推进金融市场开放构建人民币环流、扩大与"一带一路"沿线国家(地区)的贸易往来、借助基础设施建设强化人民币计价功能等,努力实现人民币国际化的原油计价。     

Assessing the Impact of Crude Oil Price and Investor Sentiment on Islamic Indices: Subprime Crisis

This article attempts to shed light on the impact of oil prices, investor sentiment, and conventional index on 11 Islamic indices, particularly during the subprime financial crisis and the oil crisis. Empirical evidence suggests that the Malaysian and Indonesian Islamic indices are very much affected by the oil volatility. Estimation results of the BEKK-GARCH model reveal that the pessimistic sentiment during the subprime crisis is transmitted to Islamic indices, suggesting the herding contagion. The authors' finding indicates that investors can use VIX investor sentiment as an indicator to predict Islamic returns volatility. In addition, the authors find that the oil shock has spilled into Islamic indices. The time-varying correlation indicates strong evidence of the contagion effect of crude oil and investor sentiment measure to Islamic indices during the oil shock and U.S. financial crisis period of 2008–2009.     

Oil Price Volatility,the Global Financial Crisis,and the Day-of-the-Week Effect

In this study the author investigated the day-of-the-week effect in the UK Brent crude oil market using the GARCH (1, 5) and GJR-GARCH (1, 5) models. The backdrop of the study is the Asian and global financial crises of 1997 and 2008, respectively. Daily data were used over the period of January 2, 1997, to May 27, 2009. Results show the presence of the day-of-the-week effect in both return and volatility in the oil market. More specifically, there are significant positive Thursday and Friday effects in return and significant Thursday effects in volatility.     

On the stability of domestic financial market linkages in the presence of time-varying volatility

We analyze the stability of domestic financial linkages between periods of calm and turbulent market conditions. Our model develops a simultaneous test of shift contagion and bi-directional pure contagion, which is applied to the equity and currency markets of a group of East Asian emerging economies. Our results show a great deal of instability in these markets with widespread evidence of pure contagion in both directions. There is less evidence of shift contagion with the transmission of common shocks unchanged between regimes for the majority of countries.     

Assessing the asymmetric volatility linkages of energy and agricultural commodity futures during low and high volatility regimes

This study investigated the volatility linkages between energy and agricultural futures, including possible causes for these comovements, such as external macroeconomic and financial shocks during low and high volatility regimes. A combination of Markov-switching regressions and quadrivariate VAR–DCC–GARCH and VAR–BEKK–GARCH modeling revealed that external shocks have an asymmetric effect on the relationship of these assets with higher cross-correlations reported during high volatility regimes. This comovement effect outweighs the substitution effect between energy and agricultural products. Furthermore, the quadrivariate VAR–BEKK–GARCH model provides strong evidence of a bidirectional price volatility spillover between the agricultural and energy markets during periods of high volatility. Overall, the results suggest that energy futures can be effectively used for hedging in a portfolio comprising agricultural futures (and vice versa), while a combination of macroeconomic and financial index futures can serve as an effective hedging tool in investment portfolios comprising both energy and agricultural commodities.     

疑似燃料油快速鉴别方法研究

为了维护我国进口燃料油市场秩序,解决进口燃料油真伪性鉴别问题,本文通过简单试验方法,详细叙述了进口燃料油真伪性快速、准确鉴别过程。该方法简单可行、结果准确可靠,可为海关、检验检疫把关服务提供技术支持和法律依据。     

高油价困局

传统矿物能源的不可再生性,决定了过度依靠单一类型的自然能源所面临的系统性风险是无法回避的。＂世界经济血液＂的称号体现出石油在世界经济中的价值与地位,而华尔街的一句名言＂千万不要试图预测油价＂,又令其充满了神秘色彩。     

Can emerging market central banks bail out banks? A cautionary tale from Latin America

This paper investigates whether emerging market countries can implement monetary policies to cope with financial crises as advanced countries did during the recent global crisis—injecting significant amounts of money into the financial system without facing major short-run adverse macroeconomic repercussions. Using panel data techniques, the paper analyzes episodes of financial turmoil in 16 Latin American countries during 1995–2007. The results show that developing and emerging market countries should be cautious because injecting money on a large scale into the financial system may fuel further macroeconomic instability, increasing the chances of simultaneous currency crises.     

我国原油进口依存度的国别差异分析——基于Armington模型的实证检验

本文引入Armington模型作为原油进口依存度的分析工具,运用面板数据等分析方法,对Armington弹性进行了估计。实证结果表明:总体上,我国原油进口依存度不高,且国别之间存在较大差异。大部分国家"高进口量高依存度,低进口量低依存度"的特征较为明显,但依然存在"高进口量低依存度"以及"低进口量高依存度"的现象。同时,部分国家的弹性估计值为负,呈现出"买涨不买落"的特点,本文认为这不仅是原油定价机制的问题,也是国际能源政治的集中体现。     

Does the price of crude oil respond to macroeconomic news?

In a recent study, Kilian L. and Vega C. (2011) indicate that the daily price of crude oil is mostly unresponsive to macroeconomic news, and at times exhibits response‐coefficients that are counterintuitive. The authors conclude that the price of crude oil is predetermined to macro aggregates, and hence determined in a flow demand/supply framework. We make the argument that inferences on commodity price determination should be drawn from news responses only after the standard tests are subject to inventory (or stock) controls. Using daily and intraday price data and proxies for inventory levels, we reexamine the responsiveness of crude prices to macroeconomic news. Our evidence suggests a very limited role for stock levels in the responsiveness of crude oil. The prior conclusion that crude oil is priced primarily in a flow‐environment is supported by our data. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 32:536–559, 2012     

Herding behaviour in an emerging market: Evidence from the Moscow Exchange

This study investigates the extent to which herding towards the market consensus for Russian stocks is driven by fundamental and non-fundamental factors. We find evidence that investors on the Moscow Exchange herd without any reference to fundamentals during unanticipated financial crises coupled with high uncertainty, in falling markets, and during days with extreme upward oil price movements. In contrast, in periods of high liquidity and on days of international sanction announcements during the Ukrainian crisis, herding behaviour is merely driven by fundamentals. In Russia, macroeconomic news releases induce both information-related herding and herding without any reference to fundamentals. These results suggest that motives of investors' herding behaviour vary under specific market conditions such as market trends, liquidity, uncertainty, arrival of new information, and oil price volatility.     

Time‐varying market price of risk in the crude oil futures market

In this study, a three‐factor model of crude oil prices is estimated, which incorporates a time‐varying market price of risk. The model is able to accurately capture the term structure of futures prices with evidence suggesting that risk premiums in the crude oil market are time‐varying. Using the cross‐section of futures prices, we estimate a time‐series of the market price of risk in the crude oil market implied by the model. We find that the risk premiums in the crude oil market are driven by the same risk factors as equity and bond markets. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:779–807, 2011     

The impact of crude oil inventory announcements on prices: Evidence from derivatives markets

This study examines the impact of weekly crude oil storage announcements on oil futures and options prices. We document evidence of a strong announcement day effect on both markets, and find prices to move in anticipation of the inventory surprise. Futures returns significantly decrease with positive surprises and increase with negative surprises. There is no evidence of an asymmetric impact on futures prices. Near‐the‐money options exhibit the greatest price sensitivity, and the magnitude of the price response of both futures and options declines with maturity. The results remain robust even after controlling for various macroeconomic and other storage‐related news variables.     

基于相空间重构技术的国际原油价格时序特征

由于国际原油市场的复杂性,结构性预测方法很难实现准确的国际原油价格预测。因此,通过原油价格的时间序列,分析原油市场随时间变化的历史行为和规律,建立时间序列预测模型成为原油价格预测的又一重要研究方向。在建立原油价格时间序列预测模型之前,必须掌握原油价格时间序列的特征,才能选择合适的原油价格时间序列预测方法。     

Betting the house

Is there a link between loose monetary conditions, credit growth, house price booms, and financial instability? This paper analyzes the role of interest rates and credit in driving house price booms and busts with data spanning 140 years of modern economic history in the advanced economies. We exploit the implications of the macroeconomic policy trilemma to identify exogenous variation in monetary conditions: countries with fixed exchange regimes often see fluctuations in short-term interest rates unrelated to home economic conditions. We use novel instrumental variable local projection methods to demonstrate that loose monetary conditions lead to booms in real estate lending and house prices' bubbles; these, in turn, materially heighten the risk of financial crises. Both effects have become stronger in the postwar era.     

Oil shocks and external balances

We provide estimates of the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of oil exporters' and oil importers' external balances, including the oil trade balance, the non-oil trade balance, the current account, capital gains, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA). First, we show that the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account, which depending on the source of the shock can be large, depends critically on the response of the non-oil trade balance. Our results provide evidence of an intermediate degree of international financial integration. Second, we document the presence of large and systematic valuation effects in response to these shocks. Valuation effects overall tend to cushion the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the NFA positions of oil exporters and oil importers. Third, we quantify the overall importance of global business cycle demand shocks as well as oil-market specific demand and supply shocks for external balances.     

Determinants of workers’ remittances: An empirical investigation for a panel of eleven developing Asian economies

We explore the key motives of migrant workers’ remittances from abroad for 11 major Asian migrant‐sending countries. Using panel regressions, we find that relative higher growth rate, interest rate and capital market returns of home over the host, investment, financial deepening at home have significant impact on remittance inflows into Asia, along with higher per capita incomes and international crude oil prices. With incorporation of per capita incomes and lagged impact of remittances, we observe an emergence of consumption motives to remit. Therefore, we conclude that both investment and altruistic motives are the driving forces for remittances inflows into the Asian economies.     

上海燃料油期货市场流动性检验

本文在对上海燃料油期货的流动性进行数量分析和检验后,阐明了燃料油期货的成功运行对未来建立境内石油期货市场具有极大的推动作用。燃料油是原油炼制出的成品油中的一种重油,我国燃料油市场流动性较高,表明我国燃料油期货交投活跃,交易效率较高,对未来石油期货的成功运行积累了宝贵经验。     

供应链管理视角下的企业预付款融资采纳研究

文章结合供应链管理理论及营运资金管理理论,从供应链管理运作管理的视角出发,深入分析影响企业采纳预付款融资的因素。基于来自全国717个企业的供应链金融调查数据,文章利用对二分类因变量进行回归建模的Logistic回归模型,对企业采纳预付款融资的发生概率进行拟合。研究结果表明,从融资企业资金需求的角度,供应商提供原材料的平均交付周期越长、企业所采购物料的价格波动越大,越倾向于采纳预付款融资来解决资金问题,维持企业正常运营。结合金融机构信用风险控制的考虑,相对于原材料价格波动小的企业,所在供应链信息化程度高对帮助原材料价格波动大的企业获得金融机构授信的作用更显著。同时,文章认为出于确保还款资金来源的考虑,金融机构更倾向于向原材料库存平均周转天数短的企业授信;由于融资企业引入外部金融机构资金带来了额外的融资成本,会激励企业更努力做好其原材料库存管理,缩短原材料库存平均周转天数,尽早预付款融资,降低融资成本。