中日制成品产业内贸易实证分析

采用SITC3分位数据,对1992-2012年间中日制造业产业内贸易发展态势进行实证分析的研究结果表明:中日产业内贸易主要集中在制成品领域内,制造业贸易在两国贸易总额中占主导地位,中日制造业产业内贸易结构已由产业间贸易为主导变为产业间、产业内并存的格局;中日两国的产业内贸易受中日人均GDP差异、要素禀赋差异以及中国企业市场规模等因素的影响,而日本对华直接投资影响不显著。中国应鼓励技术创新与应用,合理调整引资政策,改善投资软环境,以促进贸易模式由以垂直型产业内贸易为主向以水平型产业内贸易为主转变。     

服务贸易与美中贸易再平衡分析

在不考虑其它影响美中贸易的因素情形下,本文深入地研究了服务贸易与美中贸易再平衡之间的关系。研究表明服务贸易在平衡美中贸易失衡中扮演着越来越重要的角色,是缓解美中贸易失衡的有效工具。美中服务贸易顺差抵消美中货物贸易逆差的作用在将来较长一段时期内仍会持续下去,而且抵消幅度可能会越来越大,这对美中贸易逆差的缩小将产生巨大的影响,美中贸易失衡格局将难以为继。     

Naming Products in China: Local or Foreign Branding

ABSTRACT

This study examines the effect of program trades on the price changes in the Korean stock index futures and spot markets employing intraday return and trading data. Program trades in the Korean stock market create an instant imbalance in market liquidity. However, their impact is very short-lived and limited in an economic sense. Moreover, there is little tendency for market returns to over-react to program trades. An increase in program trades results in higher spot market volatility but does not cause monotonically increasing futures market volatility. Overall, program trades do not destabilize the stock market in Korea despite some positive association between program trades and volatility.     

Price impact asymmetry of futures trades: Trade direction and trade size

By analyzing the high-quality intraday transaction dataset of KOSPI200 index futures contracts, one of the most actively traded index futures products in the world, this study examines price impact asymmetry between buyer- and seller-initiated trades and the difference in information content across the size of trades. To measure the permanent price impact incurred by each futures trade, which can be translated into the quality of information content of each trade, we use a modified version of the MRR model (Madhavan et al., 1997), which is appropriate for gauging the price impact and information content as well as analyzing the intraday price discovery issues that arise in purely order-driven markets.Consistent with the empirical results of previous studies on market microstructure issues in Korea's index derivatives market (i.e., KOSPI200 index futures and options market), we find that large trades generally incur greater permanent price impacts than small trades. This indicates that large trades generally have greater information content than the smaller ones. However, in contrast to the majority of empirical studies in this area, which have reported that buy trades are more informative than sell trades in global financial markets, we find that the permanent price impact of seller-initiated trades is clearly and substantially larger than that of buyer-initiated trades in the KOSPI200 futures market. This indicates that sell trades are more informed than buy trades in the index futures market, where informed investors can freely submit sell orders without any restrictions. The greater information content of sell trades is also apparent when trades are classified by their size. These results are quite remarkable considering that the sample period of this study (2003–2006) corresponds to a recovery period, during which the underlying stock index price and the futures price continued to increase.     

建交三十年以来中美贸易的回顾及展望

中美两国正式建立外交关系以来,两国在经济上已成为战略合作伙伴.美国已是我国第二大贸易伙伴,第一大出口市场,我国是美国第二大贸易伙伴国,第二大进口来源地和第三大出口市场.随着中美贸易额的扩大,中美贸易失衡问题也浮出水面,美国对华采取的反倾销、反补贴及特别保障措施等所带来的贸易摩擦问题越来越多.解决中美经贸摩擦问题、特别是在金融危机导致我国出口增长趋缓、出口产品成本升高导致中国输美产品竞争优势下降的前提下解决好双方的贸易问题,我国必须要充分运用世界贸易组织争端解决机制;完善市场经济体制,推进外贸增长方式的转变,提高自我创新能力及竞争力,实施出口市场多元化策略.     

产业内贸易对中国农产品贸易影响的实证研究

文章以农产品产业内贸易为研究对象,利用G\|L指数,从分类和行业两个角度,对中国农产品产业内贸易的发展程度进行了评估。研究发现：虽然现阶段,中国农产品贸易仍然以由资源禀赋所主导的产业间贸易方式为主,但在某些农产品的贸易中,产业内贸易方式已经上升到了主要地位,并且未来有继续增长的趋势。进一步地,考虑产业内贸易的特殊性,建立中国农产品进、出口联立方程组模型进行实证分析,结果表明：农产品产业内贸易客观存在,并且其有助于促进中国农产品贸易的增长。因此,发展纵向一体化合作,力求在产品差异化竞争中取胜,是刺激产业内贸易增长,进而扩大农产品贸易规模的有效途径。     

服务业扩大开放与贸易强国建设——第六届贸易强国高峰论坛综述

“十四五”规划建议提出要加快构建国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,是要利用国内国外两个市场、两种资源,完善包括调控机制、法律法规等内外贸易一体化的诸多方面。要真正实现内外贸易一体化,关键在于处理好标准问题。我国要以产业转型升级为支撑,进一步强化出口的竞争新优势;以促进形成强大的国内市场为根本,进一步扩大进口,促进进口结构优化;以“一带一路”高质量发展为重点,为贸易提质增效创造新的空间,进一步加快贸易强国建设步伐。我国服务业扩大开放进程中各地方的自贸区建设各具特色,从宏观层面来看,自贸区建设的地区定位各不相同;从中观层面来看,目前的重点主要是推动自贸区成为高端产业和新业态的聚集地,同时对区域整体产业链、供应链的稳定、完善以及产业结构升级形成重要支撑;从微观层面来看,自贸区建设形成了多样化的创新举措,已出现260多个创新案例,且得到很好的推广和复制,北京也正在高水平建设国家服务业扩大开放综合示范区和自贸试验区。“双循环”新发展格局下,我国的城镇化、老龄化、信息化、服务化、国际化成为消费增长的新动力,第一动力是加快收入分配改革,增加居民收入,促进居民消费。     

非港口式贸易中心的实证研究——兼析北京对外贸易现状及发展趋势

北京进出口贸易,尤其是服务贸易和转口贸易的迅速发展,使北京成为我国重要的非港口式贸易中心。通过对非港口式贸易中心这一现象的分析,认为技术进步,有效配置资源是非港口式贸易中心出现的重要理论原因;市场影响力、信息资源、交通体系、科技智力资源等因素是非港口式贸易中心形成的重要条件。北京依托信息、人才、市场、科技等方面的综合比较优势,快速成长为重要的非港口式贸易中心。     

The relationship between currency carry trades and U.S. stocks

The article examines the relationship between daily returns of currency carry trades and U.S. stocks from January 1995 through September 2010. Carry trade and stock returns are highly correlated with no Granger‐causality in either direction. An EGARCH model shows that significant volatility spillovers flow from the stock market to the carry‐trade market, but not vice versa. The markets are more correlated in periods of high volatility. Volatilities in both markets also increase more with negative innovations than positive innovations. A sectoral analysis of the index suggests that volatilities of cyclical stocks have more impact than noncyclical stocks on carry trades.     

国际贸易环境下我国对外贸易政策的发展方向

近十几年来,全球贸易量取得了惊人的跨越式增长,而自由贸易与环境的关系问题也日趋尖锐。一方面,许多发达国家利用不对等的贸易和投资手段从发展中国家攫取大量战略性资源,却造成这些国家境内生态环境的严重失调;另一方面,一味地追求贸易扩张、资金积累和工业化又实际加剧了全球环境的恶化。环境效应对贸易的挤压性制约日益上升为国际贸易发展的焦点。在此背景下,引入环境变量,促进贸易策略的可持续性便成为实现我国对外贸易科学发展的必然之路。     

中国贸易强国之路——自主创新

2004年中国的进出口贸易总额高达11547．4亿美元,超过日本一跃成为世界第三贸易大国。对外贸易额平均每年以超过15％的速度增长。2007年中国进出口总额更是达到了21728亿美元,比上年增长23．5％,跃居世界第二位。但是我国贸易大国地位却蕴藏着脆弱的基础,例如出口商品结构不合理,产品竞争力不强;服务贸易发展滞后,比重偏低;出口商品缺乏具有自主知识产权的知名品牌和核心技术等等。我国是贸易大国的同时又是贸易弱国。我国提出要在2020年以前发展成为世界贸易强国的目标。文章提出了中国贸易强国之路,即自主创新。     

韩国教育服务贸易市场开放的法律问题研究

教育服务贸易是WTO框架下一种重要的服务贸易。近年来,跨国教育服务在全球迅速发展。通过对韩国有关教育服务贸易的法律进行分析以及研究开放教育服务市场对韩国教育的影响,为中韩两国之间未来教育服务贸易活跃地交流及发展提出合作方案。     

中国外贸的发展和变革

我国已经成为世界贸易大国,但还不是贸易强国。大而不强既有客观因素,也有主观原因。客观上我国经济发展水平还比较低,主观上与我国外贸法律法规不完善、体制机制不健全、外贸政策不配套和经营模式比较落后等有关。当前,我国外贸正处在大发展、大变革、大调整时期,既面临难得的发展机遇,也面临严峻的内外挑战,要以巩固贸易大国地位、推动贸易强国进程为主要目标,以调结构、促协调、提质量为重点,加快外贸发展方式转变,优化外贸国际市场布局和国内区域布局,推进外贸生产基地、贸易平台和国际营销网络建设。     

人民币汇率与中美贸易失衡的关联性实证分析

近年来,中关贸易规模发展迅速,但双边贸易不平衡问题日益突出,成为中美贸易摩擦的焦点所在,人民币汇率问题被认为是导致中关贸易不平衡的主要原因。然而通过大量数据分析和探讨中关贸易不平衡与人民币汇率的关系,发现人民币汇率并非导致中美贸易不平衡的主要原因,而美国国内经济失衡,对华出口管制,两国统计口径的差异,美国对华的直接投资才是中关贸易失衡的主要原因。     

我国价格贸易条件的影响因素分析——基于内外部均衡的视角

文章运用1981～2006年的时间序列数据,对我国货物及工业制成品价格贸易条件恶化的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:人民币汇率的低估、实际资本存量的迅速增加和国内生产对国际市场的依赖程度加深是我国贸易条件恶化的Granger原因。文章据此认为,宏观经济内部失衡,投资率过高消费率偏低,生产能力相对过剩,迫使企业低价出口,是我国价格贸易条件恶化的主要原因。     

中美两国运输服务贸易的国际竞争力比较分析

通过对中美两国运输服务贸易的国际竞争力比较分析,得出我国运输服务贸易的国际竞争力比较弱的结论。鉴于运输服务贸易的重要性及我国现实国情,政府应将运输服务贸易作为发展我国服务贸易的重点之一,努力提高其国际竞争力,即加强中国运输产业自身发展,加强对运输服务贸易的政策导向及扶持力度;加强专业人才培养和引进,提高运输服务质量;努力开拓海内外市场,实现规模经营。     

迈进入世山 再遇入市坎

美国及欧盟等国家不承认我国是市场经济体制国家.给不给予我国市场经济地位的待遇,不仅是一个贸易问题,更重要的是一个政治问题.我国要求承认我国是市场经济国家,对我国融入国际贸易体系,获取公正的国际贸易待遇,加快社会和经济发展意义重大.而＂非市场经济＂地位,对我国的国际形象、对外贸易造成的影响与损失极大.对此,我们应该采取＂冷静对待,力争突破＂的方针,力争获得市场经济国家的地位与待遇.     

从中美知识产权争端看“特别301”条款的实质

“特别301”条款是用于保障美国的知识产权在外国得到有效保护．保障依赖于知识产权保护的美国人公平和平等地进入外国市场的。在“‘特别301’条款年度审查报告”中,美国的贸易代表曾多次指出,中国的国内市场仿冒和盗版问题十分严重,给美国企业、个人带来巨额经济损失。特别是,近年来美中贸易赤字不断增加,已逾千亿美元,因此知识产权的有效保护成为美国扭转对外贸易状况的关键。本文以对“特别301”条款的实体内容及适用程序的介绍为基础,以中美知识产权谈判为具体案例,深刻剖析“特别301”条款的实质。     

Trade configurations in Asia: Assessing de facto and de jure regionalism

Given the backdrop of significant uncertainties largely propelled by the ongoing trade spat between the United States and China, to what degree can the Asian region move forward in terms of de facto trade integration? Drawing on the new economic geography literature, this paper offers new insights into the literature on trade regionalism in Asia by empirically illustrating how Asian economies can tap into the regional market potential. Specifically, the paper examines the scope for further de facto integration among the Asian countries engaged in the negotiation for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement by estimating foreign market potential (FMP) indices. To preview the main findings, the empirical analysis demonstrates that the share of intra-regional trade in total RCEP trade flows and, consequently, the ratio between within- and outside-RCEP trades are significantly lower than what they could potentially be. The paper makes a case that the enhancement of de jure integration among these economies through the RCEP must be accompanied by efforts to improve de facto integration.     

Free trade agreement and transport service trade

This study investigates the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) on trade in transport services using OECD data from 2003 to 2006. Our analysis found that FTAs had a positive overall impact on transport services for multiple countries (i.e., 26 home and 56 partner countries). The resulting positive overall impact assures that, even with the challenges associated with different layers of services and the obstacles formed by generally low trade openness in the sector, the provisions in FTAs (e.g., national treatment and market access for goods and services) promote transport service trades. Our findings suggest that the provisions in FTAs encourage economic agents to increase engagement in transport services because of expanded openness of the physical movement of goods across international borders.