沪深300股指期货套期保值效率度量研究——基于沪深300ETF的实证分析

基于沪深300股指期货真实交易数据,选取对指数拟合程度高且可交易的沪深300ETF为现货研究对象,运用静态套期保值比率估计模型（OLS、B-VAR、VECM）和动态套期保值比率估计模型（VECMBGARCH、DBEKK-GARCH、DCC-GARCH、NormCopula-GARCH、tCopula-GARCH）对最优套期保值比率进行估计,并对规避风险效果进行比较。结果表明：无论在样本内期间和样本外期间中,各模型反映出的沪深300股指期货套期保值效率都较高,考虑期货与现货市场动态相关性的NormCopula-GARCH模型套期保值效果最优。     

Interest rate risk in long-dated commodity options positions: To hedge or not to hedge?

We empirically assess hedging interest rate risk beyond the conventional delta, gamma, and vega hedges in long-dated crude oil options positions. Using factor hedging in a model featuring stochastic interest rates and stochastic volatility, interest rate hedges consistently provide an improvement beyond delta, gamma, and vega hedges. Under high interest rate volatility and/or when a rolling hedge is used, combining interest rate and delta hedging improves performance by up to four percentage points over the common hedges of gamma and/or vega. Thus, contrary to common practice, hedging interest rate risk should have priority over these “second-order” hedges.     

国际贸易交易风险套期保值策略研究

交易风险作为外汇风险的一种,可以通过金融衍生工具进行有效规避。一直以来有关交易风险的研究主要局限在传统理论阶段,而对金融衍生工具的风险组合理论却没有进行深入的研究。本文将对风险组合理论进行进一步延伸,从套期保值的基础理论出发,把各种不同的规避手段进行有效组合,从金融投资的角度来探讨交易风险的规避过程,并对交易风险管理手段的适用性进行了界定。     

如何利用金融衍生工具规避财务风险

处于市场竞争中的现代企业,所面临的财务风险日益突出。这已经对企业效益乃至企业生存造成了严重威胁,并在一定程度上制约着企业的发展。金融衍生工具作为新的规避风险工具具有其先天优势,本文通过对金融衍生工具的功能及特点的分析,为企业提供更好的规避财务风险的方法。     

供应链中断风险及其防范

随着全球化的发展以及人为破坏和自然灾害的增加,供应链中断风险已经成为供应链风险的最重要、最引人关注的一类风险,其风险一旦出现将导致各种各样的问题发生,甚至将一个健康的企业置于万劫不复的危险境地,因此,必须加以防范。本文阐述了这类供应链风险防范的难题、关键,并从多个利益相关者角度提出了若干对策。供应链相关各方需通力合作,才能真正实现防范和降低中断风险的目的。     

私下对冲行为及其刑事立法

期货市场的开辟对我国社会主义市场经济的发展起了很大的促进作用。由于它的高风险性和高盈亏性 ,任何不规范的交易行为都可能带来巨额的赢利 ,这种极大的刺激性 ,诱使一些不法分子不惜铤而走险 ,违规操作 ,牟取暴利 ,严重扰乱了市场秩序。私下对冲行为就是其中的一种 ,对于情节严重的私下对冲行为 ,仅靠民事制裁和行政制裁是不够的 ,要把情节严重的私下对冲行为规定为犯罪     

基于建设湖北省区域物流系统的中小企业套期保值实证研究

建设湖北省区域物流系统,期货市场的发展不容忽视。湖北省中小企业在利用期货市场套期保值的功能发展自己的过程中,一方面获得了显著的成效,但同时也暴露出人才匮乏、风险管理能力较差、政府服务功能不完善等问题,本文提出,从政府、期货公司、中小企业和高等院校各方共同着手,为中小企业更有效利用这一重要的市场工具搭建区域物流的服务平台,为湖北省实施的在中部率先崛起战略、建设区域物流中心服务。     

人民币汇率与中国的货币控制

本文以近期掀起的又一轮呼吁人民币升值的讨论为背景,再次对人民币汇率以及中国货币控制进行分析。通过分析因人民币升值而引起的中国所面临的货币困境,以及解决困境所采取的措施(即建立CIC和对流动性的对冲操作),评论了措施的局限性,并从汇率的利率平价理论入手分析人民币汇率与中国货币控制的互动关系;借鉴日本经验分析并佐证了关于汇率的几个错误概念,提出近期应去除人民币单向升值的预期,只有保持汇率相对稳定才有利于中国经济发展。     

Do hedge funds time market tail risk? Evidence from option-implied tail risk

This paper focuses on an unexplored dimension of fund managers’ timing ability: Market-wide tail risk implied by information in options markets. Constructing the option-implied tail risk, we investigate whether hedge fund managers can strategically time the tail risk through adjusting their exposure to changes of it. Using an extensive sample of equity-oriented hedge funds, we find strong evidence of tail risk timing ability of hedge fund managers. Furthermore, tail risk timing ability brings significant economic value to investors. Top-ranked funds outperform bottom-ranked funds by 5–7% annually after adjusting for risk factors. Our results are robust to various robustness checks.     

Risk-based capital, portfolio risk, and bank capital: A simultaneous equations approach

This paper examines the impact the risk-based capital standards had on bank capital and portfolio risk during the first year the risk-based standards were in effect. To date, insufficient attention has been focused on how the risk-based capital standards have impacted bank capital and risk. Building on previous research, this study used a three-stage least squares (3SLS) model to analyze the relationship between bank capital, portfolio risk, and the risk-based capital standards. The results suggest that the risk-based capital standards were effective in increasing capital ratios and reducing portfolio risk in commercial banks.     

我国零售业市场集中度的现状及对策

市场集中度问题是现代产业组织理论讨论的核心问题。市场集中度在一定程度上能够反映产业中的市场势力状况,同时也将影响产业的国际竞争力。本文在测算我国零售业市场集中度的基础上,构建了零售业市场有效集中度的动态模型,探讨了我国零售业市场集中度现状的成因,最后提出了提高我国零售业市场集中度的对策。     

“套期保值”分析

国内外一些学者把套期交易和套期保值联系在一起。对上海商品交易所2003-2005年天然橡胶期货与现货价格实际变化情况进行研究,发现套期交易除了有锁定价格的作用外,还存在期货价格和现货价格的同方向不同幅度的变动,即套期存在保值差异和逆向风险。因此,套期保值应表述为套期锁险。     

ROBUST BOUNDS FOR FORWARD START OPTIONS

We consider the problem of finding a model‐free upper bound on the price of a forward start straddle with payoff . The bound depends on the prices of vanilla call and put options with maturities T₁ and T₂ , but does not rely on any modeling assumptions concerning the dynamics of the underlying. The bound can be enforced by a super‐replicating strategy involving puts, calls, and a forward transaction. We find an upper bound, and a model which is consistent with T₁ and T₂ vanilla option prices for which the model‐based price of the straddle is equal to the upper bound. This proves that the bound is best possible. For lognormal marginals we show that the upper bound is at most 30% higher than the Black–Scholes price. The problem can be recast as finding the solution to a Skorokhod embedding problem with nontrivial initial law so as to maximize .