The siren call of probability: Dangers associated with using probability for consideration of the future

Many tools for thinking about the future employ probability. For example, Delphi studies often ask expert participants to assign probabilities to particular future outcomes. Similarly, while some scenario planners reject probability, others insist that assigning probabilities to scenarios is required to make them meaningful. Formal modelling and forecasting methods often also employ probability in one way or another. The paper questions this widespread use of probability as a device for considering the future, firstly showing that objective probability, based on empirically-observed frequencies, has some well-known drawbacks when used for this purpose. However, what is less-widely acknowledged is that this is also true of the subjective probability used in, for example, Delphi. Subjective probability is less distinct from objective probability than proponents of its use might imply, meaning it therefore suffers from similar problems. The paper draws on the foundations of probability theory as set out by Kolmogorov, as-well-as the work of Keynes, Shackle, Aumann, Tversky and Kahneman, and others, to reassert the essential distinction between risk and uncertainty, and to warn about the dangers of inappropriate use of probability for considering the future. The paper sets out some criteria for appropriate use.     

The professional development of European accounting academics: A proposed theoretical framework for future research

Over the last decade there has been a growing interest in the professional development of accounting academics and the effectiveness of their teaching. There is recognition that this development impacts on the primary roles of accounting educators: teaching, research and administration. This paper examines the career stories of accounting educators from different European countries. The aim is to develop a theoretical framework to provide new insights into the process of professional development. The comparative analysis of these career experiences led to the development of a proposed conceptual framework for gaining an understanding of the professional development of accounting educators. Drawing on these findings, the paper proposes that an awareness of the key-factors and the process of professional development of accounting educators may provide a new way of understanding the complex relationships among identities, system of beliefs, and behaviours related to teaching, research and administration.     

A study of the internal control structure for electronic data interchange systems using the analytic hierarchy process

Electronic data interchange (EDI) systems involve the direct exchange of structured business data between trading partner computer systems. A reliable internal control structure is the primary means of providing assurance of information integrity in EDI systems. This paper reports the results of a study that examined information system (IS) managers' and computerised information system (CIS) auditors' judgements of the relative importance of elements of the internal control structure for EDI systems, using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). It then assessed the degree of consensus in their judgements. Generally consensus was found to be high. However, the areas where there was lack of consensus may indicate potential areas of control weakness in EDI systems.     

A methodology for the identification of strategic technological competences: An application in the sheet metal equipment industry

This paper proposes a technology foresight methodology based on the development of a complementary approach to the Delphi method that enables the identification of strategic technological competences, and presents its application in a sheet metal processing equipment manufacturer. The proposed methodology takes into consideration synergies between future events through a modified QFD matrix, and the application involved a panel of experts from industry and academia. The proposed methodology can benefit organizations by promoting a homogeneous perspective on existing relationships between external drivers and technology diffusion. This study contributes for the understanding of the links between foresight and technology strategy formulation. Further implementations in industrial environments should be performed to refine the methodology and increase the confidence level on the expected results that these findings can signify.     

The role of internal corporate governance mechanisms on default risk: A systematic review for different institutional settings

Recent financial downturns, characterized by the significant failures of firms, have revealed the need to control credit risk. Latest literature has shown that weak corporate governance structures are related to high levels of default risk, leading to financial instability. In this context, we aim to summarize the literature that focuses on the role that internal corporate governance plays in the credit risk of firms, specifically considering three corporate governance components: ownership structure, board structure and financial stakeholders’ rights and relations. Additionally, we analyse whether the effectiveness of the internal mechanisms depends on particular key factors, especially the institutional setting and the type of mechanisms considered. Finally, new lines of research are identified for future research.     

The Relative Relevance of Cash Flow and Accrual Information for Solvency Assessments: A Multi‐Method Approach

This multi-method study reports the results of two complementary experiments investigating the relevance of cash flow and accrual information. A behavioural field experiment investigated differences in the accuracy of solvency assessments between commercial lending managers using cash flow information and those using accrual information. Results indicated that commercial lending managers using cash flow information made more accurate solvency assessments than managers using accrual information. Results of an archival quantitative modeling experiment complemented these results and indicated cash flow information had incremental information content beyond accrual information. Our results confirmed the decision-usefulness of cash flow information and supported the mandate of the Statement of Cash Flows.     

A Tale of Two Segmented Markets in China: The Informative Value of Corporate Environmental Information Disclosure for Foreign Investors

Focusing on the unique setting of two segmented stock markets in China and using a sample of Chinese listed firms issuing both A-shares and B-shares during the period of 2007–2014, this study examines the influence of corporate environmental information disclosure on foreign share discount, and further investigates the moderating effect of globalizing the board. The findings show that environmental information disclosure is significantly negatively related to foreign share discount, suggesting that environmental information disclosure provides valuable and incremental information to mitigate information asymmetry between domestic and foreign investors, and thus reduces foreign share discount. Moreover, globalizing the board reinforces the negative relation between environmental information disclosure and foreign share discount. These findings are robust to alternative measures of environmental information disclosure and foreign share discount, and further, these conclusions are still valid after controlling for the endogeneity problem.