The allocation of volatile aid and economic growth: Theory and evidence

We analyse, both theoretically and empirically, the growth effects associated with two components of volatile foreign financial assistance: ‘directly productive’ (or ‘tied’) aid and ‘pure’ aid. We find that scenarios in which aid can hurt the recipient's growth rate emerge only in cases where foreign aid is volatile. As a result, we conclude that it is only in conjunction with the presence of aid variability that aid allocation determines whether foreign aid hurts or promotes long-run growth.     

Aid,policies and growth: a nonlinear reassessment

ABSTRACT

The association between foreign aid and growth has been controversial for decades and the evidence is quite mixed with results sensitive to data samples and modelling approaches. We reassess the relationship between aid, policy and growth implementing a novel semiparametric estimation method that allows for nonlinearities and controls for endogeneity. The results show that the aid-policy-growth relationship is complex. Aid inflows do not seem growth-enhancing, except at very high levels (above 7% of Aid/GDP), whereas the effect may arrive with a lag at lower levels. Policy improvements are positively correlated with growth at high policy levels (above the median value) but better policies do not increase aid effectiveness.     

日元贷款对中国经济增长的作用研究(1980～2003)

1980～2003年,日本向中国提供了累计达3.3万亿日元的贷款,占所有双边贷款总和的比重约50～60%,是中国最大也最重要的援助提供国.这些日元贷款对中国经济增长的影响如何,这方面的研究十分少见.本文以发展经济学的援助评价理论为基础建立了计量模型,利用1980年以来的数据,对上述问题作了一个尝试性的评价.我们的计量分析结果表明,在1990年前,日元贷款对中国经济增长的贡献不显著,在1990年之后的作用则积极显著,这表明不同的政策环境与援助性贷款的相互作用导致不同的结果.     

1981-2002年间国际金融组织贷款对中国经济增长的贡献研究

改革开放以来,国际金融组织贷款一直是我国对外借款的重要来源,其所占比例始终维持在40%左右,累计金额已达数百亿美元.这些贷款对中国经济增长的影响如何,这方面的研究十分少见.本文以柯布-道格拉斯生产函数的派生模型为基础建立了修正模型,分别利用1978年以来的国家和省级两层数据,对上述问题作了一个尝试性的评价.我们的计量分析结果表明,在1990年前后,国际金融组织贷款对中国经济增长的贡献存在差异.对不同地区的增长贡献也差异较大,表明不同的政策环境与援助性贷款的相互作用结果是不同的.     

Transitional dynamics and the distribution of assets

Summary. We study the evolution of the distribution of assets in a discrete time, deterministic growth model with log-utility, a minimum consumption requirement, Cobb-Douglas technology, and agents differing in initial assets. We prove that the coefficient of variation in assets across agents decreases monotonically in a transition to the steady state from below, if (i) the consumption requirement is zero, or (ii) the consumption requirement is not too big and the initial capital stock is large enough. We also show how a positive consumption requirement or a small elasticity of substitution between capital and labor can generate non-monotonic paths for inequality.JEL Classification Numbers: D31, E21, O41.We would like to thank S. Chatterjee, M. Huggett, T. Keister, P. Krusell, M. Santos, S. Williamson, and an anonymous referee, for their valuable comments and suggestions. All remaining errors are ours. Urrutia aknowledges the support of Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, to which he was affiliated during early phases of this project.     

The ghost of financing gap: testing the growth model used in the international financial institutions

The Harrod–Domar growth model supposedly died long ago. Still today, economists in the international financial institutions (IFIs) apply the Harrod–Domar model to calculate short-run investment requirements for a target growth rate. They then calculate a “financing gap” between the required investment and available resources and often fill the “financing gap” with foreign aid. The financing gap model has two simple predictions: (1) aid will go into investment one for one, and (2) there will be a fixed linear relationship between growth and investment in the short run. The data soundly reject these two predictions of the financing gap model.     

跨国公司海外子公司的人员配置问题研究

跨国公司对海外子公司的有效控制是通过调整外国分支机构中的外聘人员与当地人之间的比例,以及界定外聘人员在分支机构控制结构中的作用.虽然组织性需求会导致跨国公司雇佣外聘人员,但是由环境差异产生的制度压力也许会迫使跨国公司聘用当地人作经理.顺应不同的情况,跨国公司的海外子公司人员配置方式也应是不同的.     

When is Foreign Aid Effective in Fighting Terrorism? Threshold Evidence

Building on the previous literature, we assess when foreign aid is effective in fighting terrorism using quantile regressions on a panel of 78 developing countries for the period 1984–2008. Bilateral, multilateral and total aid indicators are used whereas terrorism includes: domestic, transnational, unclear and total terrorism dynamics. We consistently establish that foreign aid (bilateral, multilateral and total) is effective at fighting terrorism exclusively in countries where existing levels of transnational terrorism are highest. This finding is consistent with our theoretical underpinnings because donors have been documented to allocate more aid towards fighting transnational terrorist activities in recipient countries because they are more likely to target their interests. Moreover, the propensity of donor interest at stake is likely to increase with initial levels of transnational terrorism, such that the effect of foreign aid is most significant in recipient countries with the highest levels of transnational terrorism. Policy implications and future research directions are discussed.     

A modeling framework for enhancing aid effectiveness

ABSTRACT

The development literature lacks consensus about the link between aid effectiveness and governance improvement. A basic rational actor model is introduced to clarify how donors can influence recipient behaviors and more broadly how foreign aid can support or impede governance quality improvement. Adopting the underutilized perspective of donor behavior, this study identifies mechanisms through which aid hinders governance improvement and offers substantive recommendations about how donors can enhance aid effectiveness, including strategies for donors to raise the level of effort recipients devote to project success.     

Predicting the pattern of international trade in the neoclassical model: a synthesis

I propose a framework that takes a set of conceivable outcomes as the primitive and a prediction is defined by identifying a subset on the set of conceivable outcomes. This notion of predictability serves as an organizing principle for characterizing pattern of trade predictions in single economy and integrated equilibrium formulations of the neoclassical trade model. I identify allocative efficiency as the unifying subset selection criterion for the different formulations of the neoclassical trade model, ranging from Ricardo’s (in Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, reprinted by J. M. Dent, London, in Everyman’s library, 1817) original comparative advantage formulation to the multi-cone Heckscher–Ohlin specification with multiple countries, goods and factors. I am grateful to comments from Jim Anderson, Chris Starmer, Catia Montagna, Peter Neary, two anonymous referees, as well as participants at the June 2007 GEP Conference on ‘New Directions in International Trade Theory’. I am grateful for financial support from NSF research grant SES-0452991 and from Leverhulme Trust Programme grant F114/BF.     

Bilateral foreign aid: how important is aid effectiveness to people for choosing countries to support?

We conduct a discrete choice experiment to determine how important aid effectiveness is to people relative to other criteria for choosing countries to support with bilateral foreign aid. We find that aid effectiveness is important, on a par with recipient-country need as proxied by the level of hunger and malnutrition. Both criteria are more important than others.