Career, experience and returns to human capital: is the dual labour market hypothesis relevant for the UK?

This paper investigates the relationship between career status, labour market experience and returns to human capital accumulation in the context of a two-tier, career and non-career labour market. Using micro data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), this study detects wage and employment mechanisms that differ between these two tiers of workers. The paper finds no support for the hypothesis of strict duality, by which the returns to education are expected to differ across labour market segments, with the returns in career employment being high and positive and the returns in the non-career sector being close to zero. The paper, however, finds support for significant returns to current tenure only in the career sector and also for the scarring hypothesis, according to which part-time employment and unemployment experience have a negative effect on participation and earnings in the career sector. Finally, there is evidence that only non-career earnings are significantly affected by local demand conditions, in contrast to earnings in the career sector. Career status is modelled as an endogenous variable subject to an initial job choice.     

SOCIAL STATUS,EDUCATION AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN A TWO‐SECTOR MODEL OF ENDOGENOUS GROWTH*

This paper extends the relative wealth specification of status preference to the two‐sector Uzawa (1965 )– Lucas (1988 ) model and examines the effectiveness of government spending on economic growth. It is found that the desire for relative wealth‐induced social status and/or the education component of relative wealth‐induced social status are important ingredients in determining the growth rate effects of government spending. Provided that the agent is concerned with his or her relative social position, the education‐induced social status plays a more important role than the physical‐asset‐induced social status in determining the validity of public spending on growth. If individuals do not care about their education‐driven social rewards, then an increase in government spending has no effect on the balanced growth rate regardless of the presence of the physical‐asset‐induced social status. A rise in government spending reduces the long‐run growth rate if the education‐induced social status is present.     

A PROTOTYPE MICRO-MACRO LINK FOR THE CANADIAN HOUSEHOLD SECTOR

This paper seeks to forge a link between Canadian macro and micro data relating to the household sector. The analysis is in three parts. The first part begins with National Accounts data on the personal sector. These data are adjusted to remove transactions relating to non-biological persons, so that the result is income and expenditure for the household sub-sector. The second part starts with the annual household survey used to collect income distribution data. These survey data are augmented in various ways to account for under-reporting and to add information from other micro data sets particularly the periodic survey of household expenditure patterns and a sample of individual income tax returns. The result is a comprehensive, albeit partially synthetic, household micro data set. In the final part of the paper these two largely independent data sets are compared, and the general quality of the results is discussed.     

UNIQUENESS AND INDETERMINACY OF THE EQUILIBRIUM GROWTH PATH IN THE UZAWA‐LUCAS MODEL WITH SECTOR SPECIFIC EXTERNALITIES*

We introduce sector specific external effects of human capital on production in an otherwise Uzawa‐Lucas model of endogenous growth; and show that the problem of indeterminacy of the competitive equilibrium growth path does not exist even if the production function satisfies the increasing returns to scale at the social level.     

财政分权体制下的地方政府行为与中国经济增长——基于转型期的实证研究

以财政收支活动为具体体现的地方政府行为是在特定财政体制框架内,对财政资源在中央、地方和各微观经济主体(包括企业和个人)之间的筹集和分配,其实质是对诸多社会利益主体产权边界重新划分、界定而使其达到均衡.笔者从包含公共支出的内生增长模型,推出了反映宏观税负与经济增长关系的Laffer曲线;并利用转型期分省宏观经济数据对Laffer曲线进行了实证检验,揭示出宏观税负过重不利于经济增长的结论.     

Africa's education enigma? The Nigerian story

In the last two decades, the social and economic benefits of formal education in Sub-Saharan Africa have been debated. Anecdotal evidence points to low returns to education in Africa. Unfortunately, there is limited econometric evidence to support these claims at the micro level. In this study, I focus on Nigeria, a country that holds 1/5 of Africa's population. I use instruments based on the exogenous timing of the implementation and withdrawal of free primary education across regions in this country to consistently estimate the returns to education in the late 1990s. The results show the average returns to education are particularly low in the 90s, in contrast to conventional wisdom for developing countries (2.8% for every extra year of schooling between 1997 and 1999). Surprisingly, I find no significant differences between OLS and IV estimates of returns to education when necessary controls are included in the wage equation. The low returns to education results shed new light on both the changes in demand for education in Nigeria and the increased emigration rates from African countries that characterized the 90s.     

Education and earnings in urban West Africa

Using a series of comparable labor force surveys in urban West Africa, we estimate the private returns to education among representative samples of workers in seven economic capitals (Abidjan, Bamako, Cotonou, Dakar, Lome, Niamey and Ouagadougou). The data allow us to provide a unique cross-country comparison using rigorously the same variables and methodology for each country. We tackle the issues of endogenous sector allocation (public, formal private and informal sectors) and endogeneity of the education variable in the earnings functions. We find that the returns to schooling are most often enhanced once an endogenous education variable is accounted for. This effect holds particularly true in the informal sector. In most West African cities of our sample, the public sector gives more value to education, followed by the formal private sector and then the informal sector. We also shed light on convex returns to education in all the cities and sectors, including in informal activity. More generally, a major contribution of this paper is to provide evidence of significant effects of education on individual earnings in the informal sectors of the West African cities, even at high levels of schooling.     

论中国审计资源配置方式的特殊性及其优化

审计资源配置的目标以社会需求为导向，以效益性为核心。审计资源配置的方式应是计划与市场相结合。并从宏观与微观两个层面，制定审计资源配置的具体优化措施。     

Does Urbanization Mean Bigger Governments?

In this paper, we introduce urbanization as an important driver of government size. Using panel data for 175 countries from 1960 to 2010, we find that there is a close link between urbanization and the size of the public sector, especially when looking at education, health care, and social issues. Various robustness checks confirm this finding. An analysis of state‐level public spending in Colombia and Germany confirms our hypothesis on the subnational level. On the microeconomic level, people in urban areas acknowledge that governments should take more responsibility, and they are more in favor of redistribution. This finding can help to explain the evolution of government size, and it can also predict the present and future needs of urbanizing areas.     

Wages, Experience and Seniority

In this paper we study the sources of wage growth. We identify the contribution to such growth of general, sector specific and firm specific human capital. Our results are interpretable within the context of a model where the returns to human capital may be heterogeneous and where firms may offer different combinations of entry level wages and firm specific human capital development. We allow for the possibility that wages are match specific and that workers move jobs as a result of identifying a better match. To estimate the average returns to experience, sector tenure and firm specific tenure within this context, we develop an identification strategy which relies on the use of firm closures. Our data source is a new and unique administrative data-set for Germany that includes complete work histories as well as individual characteristics. We find positive returns to experience and firm tenure for skilled workers. The returns to experience for unskilled workers are small and insignificant after 2 years of experience. Their returns to sector tenure are also zero. However, their returns to firm tenure are substantial.     

The role of export-driven entrepreneurship in economic development: A comparison of software exports from India, China, and Taiwan

In the puzzle of economic development, there is moderate agreement around one issue: that entrepreneurial, export-led development is likely to produce higher economic growth rates than inward-looking development. This paper begins by taking an overall look at the size and competitiveness of the economies of India, China, and Taiwan, with particular reference to the software and the information technology (IT) sectors. It then focuses on the role of software export entrepreneurship in India and Taiwan as exemplars for other sectors and for formulation of government policy. In Taiwan, successful exporters constitute a model deemed worthy for other companies to emulate. In India, whether the booming software sector will prove to be a sufficient exemplar and catalyst for change throughout the economy and government remains an open question. The paper concludes by taking a look at another related export sector—IT-enabled service exports. Throughout the various sections of the paper, government policy implications remain an important backdrop.     

The distributive impact of terms of trade shocks: The case of the oil price changes in Russia

The halving of oil prices, during a short period between 2014 and 2015, has generated major terms of trade losses for oil exporting countries. This terms of trade shock has economy‐wide effects and significant distributive impacts. This paper, using a macro‐micro simulation model, describes and quantifies the channels of transmission from the drop of oil prices, to changes in welfare distribution at the household level for the case of the Russian Federation. The oil price reduction generates a reverse Dutch disease impacting sectoral employment, factor returns and consumption prices. It causes a contraction of employment and wages in more skill‐intensive (non‐tradable) sectors, and a reduction in consumption prices that is more pronounced for non‐food than for food goods. When these shifts are mapped to changes in incomes at the micro level, all households are affected. Poverty rates increase by 1 to 4 percentage points, depending on the poverty line used. At the US$ 10 a day threshold, 4.1 million additional people fall into poverty. Along the consumption distribution, richer people are affected more than those in the bottom 40%. However, this minor progressive impact may be reversed due to increases in unemployment and cuts in social programmes.     

Macroeconomic effects of international remittances: The case of developing economies

Over the past few decades international workers' remittances have significantly contributed to the foreign exchange reserves of the developing countries. While these household level remittance flows have often been associated with poverty alleviation, positive welfare gains and even as an alternate source of development finance, a detailed study of the effects of these flows on a remittance-dependent small developing economy, however shows counterintuitive results. The paper applies the Dutch Disease theory to explain the effects of remittances on the economy and introduces a micro–macro framework to establish channels of transmission of remittances through the economy. The paper shows that international remittances, by altering the household budget constraint, have a direct impact on the micro level household decision making, primarily with respect to the consumption and labor supply decisions. These when aggregated give rise to significant adjustments in the macro level production functions and consumption behaviors, leading to a decline in the output, particularly of the trading sector and an adverse impact on the external sector of the economy.     

Impact of Intangible Capital on Productivity and Growth: Lessons from the Indian Information Technology Software Industry*

This paper examines the impact of intangible capital, including human capital and organisational capabilities on productivity, using India as an illustrative example. The research breaks new ground in creating measures of intangible capital at a micro level. Measures of tangible and intangible capital are used to estimate a ‘new economy’ production function with panel data. Generalised method of moments techniques are used to account for unobserved firm heterogeneity and endogenous explanatory variables. The results indicate that intangible assets have a major impact on software sector output. This has important implications for public policy and corporate strategy towards the information technology industry, including for Australia.     

Provincial government expenditures in Canada: an empirical analysis

Most empirical studies have sought to explain the overall growth of the total government expenditures. Few studies have focused on the growth of spending at the provincial level. This article seeks to fill the gap. It examines the growth of government expenditures in Canadian provinces. Data spanning the past three decades are used to explain the growth of provincial government expenditures in Canada and to test alternative hypotheses. From a basic general theoretical model, three empirical models are developed and tested. It is concluded that the growth of the private sector share of the Provincial Gross Domestic Product (PGDP), capacity utilization and factors such as federal transfer payments to the provincial governments best explain the growth in expenditure at the provincial level. The expenditure policies of provincial governments are found to be independent of the political stance of the political parties in power. Estimated short-run and long-run ‘income’ elasticities of provincial government expenditures with respect to PGDP reveal that government expenditures have grown in proportion to PGDP. The growth of provincial spending over the last three decades has been stimulated by the demand for services (such as education and health) and by federal transfer payment programmes through their combined income and substitution effects.     

MICRO-MACRO LINK FOR GOVERNMENT

In the Dutch statistics on government finance a micro/macro link is established. The paper describes why and how this has been done. It appears to be of relevance to the users of the statistics to present two different data sets: one according to an accounting/administrative point of view and one fitting in the National Accounts. The main features of the way in which these data sets are derived from the underlying bookkeeping documents are given and it is shown how they relate to the accounting and juridical structures of the various government agencies. It appears that in order to arrive at homogeneous data sets, adaptations are in order, mainly bearing on the entries; for the National Account data further transformations, relating to transactions as well as transactors, will appear necessary. It will be enunciated how the relation between these data sets is shown in the statistics on government finance and how, in the same course a micro/macro link is provided for.     

Social security, public education and the growth-inequality relationship

We study how the relationship between economic growth and inequality depends upon the levels of funding of two of the largest government programs, public education and social security. We do this in the context of an overlapping generations economy with heterogeneous agents where the government collects a tax on labor income to finance these programs. We show that in our model an increase in government spending on social security reduces income inequality and can have a non-monotonic effect on growth. When the initial level of social security funding is low, as is the case in most poor economies, then its increase will enhance growth. When its funding level is high as is typical for developed countries, we show that its further increase can slow down growth while reducing income inequality. These results obtain regardless of whether the increase in social security funding is financed by a tax increase or by cutting the public education budget. We also find that the effects of increasing the level of public education expenditures or the overall size of the government budget (holding the budget composition fixed) are characterized by similar non-monotonic growth-inequality relationships.     

WHY DID JAPAN'S TFP GROWTH SLOW DOWN IN THE LOST DECADE? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON FIRM‐LEVEL DATA OF MANUFACTURING FIRMS*

This study analyses the cause of the slowdown in Japan's TFP growth during the 1990s. Many preceding studies, examining the issue at the macro‐ or industry‐level, have found that the slowdown was primarily due to the stagnation in TFP growth in the manufacturing sector. Using firm level panel data covering the entire sector, we investigate the causes of the TFP slowdown and find that the reallocation of resources from less efficient to more efficient firms was very slow and limited. This “low metabolism” seems to be an important cause for the slowdown in Japan's TFP growth.     

Contracting Productivity Growth

This paper analyses the interactions between growth and the contracting environment in production. With incompleteness in contracting, viable production relationships between firms and workers, and therefore the profitability of industries, depend on the rates of innovation and growth. The speed at which new innovations arrive in turn depends on the profitability of production, for the usual reasons examined in the endogenous growth literature. We show that these interactions can have important implications which are consistent with observed phenomena in both the micro and macro environments. In particular, we demonstrate that a technological shock (increasing productivity of research) can, through this interaction, lead to a productivity slowdown and a shift in labour market contracts away from firms providing implicit guarantees of lifetime employment and towards shorter-term "contractor" type arrangements. We show the consistency of an increase in the proportion of the labour force under short-term employment, increased relative returns of workers in high-productivity sectors, and increased income inequality, with a productivity slowdown of finite duration.     

Wage determination and returns to education in different ownerships of China: Evidence from quantile regressions

In this paper, quantile regressions is used to estimate wage equations of different ownerships. Quantile regressions give us distributions rather than a single estimate of the returns both to education and experience in each ownership sector. For state-owned enterprises (SOE), the returns to education tended to be larger at the bottom of the conditional distribution of wages in 1991 and 1993, and there was no such trend in 1997. For the private sector, however, the returns to education tended to be larger at the top positions in 1993 and 1997. It is also found that the growth rates of the wages at the bottom of the conditional distribution of wages are higher than those at the top in SOEs. No such patterns for the private sector is found. It is suggested the wage mechanism in the private sector is more market-oriented. __________ Translated from Shijie Jingji Wenhui 世界经济文汇 (World Economic Papers), 2006, (4): 1–26