A new methodology for studying intraday dynamics of Nikkei index futures using Markov chains

The empirical study of intraday patterns of stock trading volatilities and bid–ask spreads in the literature depends on assumptions of specific price generating process and may therefore not be robust to distributional assumptions. By creating discrete states that conform more naturally to the way prices are actually quoted in the derivatives and assets markets, we employ a new methodology of Markov chains for studying the intraday dynamics of derivative prices. We apply the method to study the intraday behavior of the Nikkei index futures prices, trading volumes, and spreads. We find some interesting results such as higher probabilities of transitions between larger volatilities at the opening and closing times. The volatility at lunch break is strikingly low. Contrary to most of the literature, the Nikkei intraday bid–ask spread does not show a U-shaped pattern. We offer some explanations.     

Intraday futures market behaviour around major scheduled macroeconomic announcements: Australian evidence

This paper examines intraday futures market behaviour around major scheduled macroeconomic information announcements on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE). Prior literature analysing intraday price behaviour around announcements is extended to trading volume and quoted bid–ask spreads. The analysis of price volatility, trading volume and quoted bid–ask spreads indicates that the majority of adjustment to new information occurs rapidly, within 240 seconds of the scheduled time for major announcements, with some evidence of abnormal activity prior to announcements. Analysis of quoted bid–ask spreads suggests that they significantly widen in the 20 seconds prior to announcements and remain significantly wider for 30 seconds following announcements. The increase in quoted spreads is related to both expected and unexpected volatility, implying that market participants increase quoted spreads around information announcements as a consequence of adverse selection costs.     

Did crisis alter trading of two major oil futures markets?

The paper analyzes how traders in two major oil futures markets: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and Intercontinental Exchange, reacted to the 2008 financial crisis, particularly whether they shifted their trading pattern and whether the relative information role of the two markets changed. Using trade-by-trade data, the paper analyzes several trading characteristics including trading volume, trade size, volatility, bid–ask spread, and relative information share. On average, NYMEX is characterized by greater volume, trade size and slightly greater spread. Before the crisis, NYMEX leads the process of price discovery, and volatility and trade size are significant factors explaining this leadership. However, following the financial crisis of 2008, the leadership role of NYMEX declines and trade size and volatility are no longer significant factors. Contrary to results of most equity market research, bid–ask spread is not a significant factor in information share and causality tests indicate that causality runs from spread to information share before the crisis but the opposite holds during the crisis period.     

An evolutionary multi‐objective optimization of trading rules in call markets

We evaluate an agent‐based model featuring near‐zero‐intelligence traders operating in a call market with a wide range of trading rules governing the determination of prices and which orders are executed, as well as a range of parameters regarding market intervention by market makers and the presence of informed traders. We optimize these trading rules using a multi‐objective population‐based incremental learning algorithm seeking to maximize the trading volume and minimize the bid–ask spread. Our results suggest that markets should choose a small tick size if concerns about the bid–ask spread are dominating and a large tick size if maximizing trading volume is the main aim. We also find that unless concerns about trading volume dominate, time priority is the optimal priority rule. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Structural changes,bid–ask spread composition and tick size in inter-bank futures trading

This paper studies a period containing three major structural changes, which constitute a natural experiment in the NYSE.Euronext-LIFFE European short-term interest rate (STIR) futures market. These changes comprise (1) a 50% reduction in minimum tick size for the most heavily traded contract, (2) European Monetary Union and (3) the transition from open outcry to electronic trading. We analyse a number of microstructure features of the four largest European interest rate futures contracts throughout this period. In particular, we focus on bid–ask spread composition using a recent model which is appropriate for this market structure. Our analysis identifies the tick size as the largest bid–ask spread component in almost every instance, which suggests that participants in this STIR future market might benefit from a reduction in minimum tick sizes.     

Entry, exit and trading profits: A look at the trading strategies of a proprietary trading team

We examine the behavior of a 15 strong proprietary stock trading team and show how consistent intraday trading profits were generated. The team, who worked for a large US direct access trading firm, executed over 96 thousand trades in 3 months in 2000. Profitable intraday trading occurred in an anonymous dealer capacity, on both long and short positions, especially when volume and price volatility were higher. The traders rapidly entered long (short) positions when the number of dealers and size become greater on the bid (offer) side of the spread. Profits were taken early against the trend.     

Intraday Patterns in the Cross‐section of Stock Returns

Motivated by the literature on investment flows and optimal trading, we examine intraday predictability in the cross‐section of stock returns. We find a striking pattern of return continuation at half‐hour intervals that are exact multiples of a trading day, and this effect lasts for at least 40 trading days. Volume, order imbalance, volatility, and bid‐ask spreads exhibit similar patterns, but do not explain the return patterns. We also show that short‐term return reversal is driven by temporary liquidity imbalances lasting less than an hour and bid‐ask bounce. Timing trades can reduce execution costs by the equivalent of the effective spread.     

Option trading after the opening bell and intraday stock return predictability

Prior literature finds that information is reflected in option markets before stock markets, but no study has explored whether option volume soon after market open has predictive power for intraday stock returns. Using novel intraday signed option-to-stock volume data, we find that a composite option trading score (OTS) in the first 30 min of market open predicts stock returns during the rest of the trading day. Such return predictability is greater for smaller stocks, stocks with higher idiosyncratic volatility, and stocks with higher bid–ask spreads relative to their options’ bid–ask spreads. Moreover, OTS is a significantly stronger predictor of intraday stock returns after overnight earnings announcements. The evidence suggests that option trading in the 30 min after the opening bell has predictive power for intraday stock returns.     

The role of private information in return volatility,bid–ask spreads and price levels in the foreign exchange market

Trading volume and order flow have both been closely associated with informed trader activity in the market microstructure literature. Using theory that explains regular intraday patterns in trading data, we transform these two variables into proxies for private information and examine their relationships with bid–ask spreads and return volatility. We use a unique and unusually rich high-frequency intraday dataset from the world's largest financial market, namely, the electronic inter-dealer spot foreign exchange market. Our analysis takes account of institutional features peculiar to this order-driven market. Our empirical results strongly affirm our theoretical understanding of how these markets work. They also reveal how the structure of the inter-dealer spot FX market affects exchange rate volatility. Finally, we also explore how private information contributes to the evolution of prices.     

Intraday Price Change and Trading Volume Relations in the Stock and Stock Option Markets

This study investigates intraday relations between price changes and trading volume of options and stocks for a sample of firms whose options traded on the CBOE during the first quarter of 1986. After purging the price change series of the effects of bid/ask spreads, multivariate time-series analysis is used to estimate the lead/lag relation between the price changes in the option and stock markets. The results indicate that price changes in the stock market lead the option market by as much as fifteen minutes. The analysis of trading volume indicates that the stock market lead may be even longer.     

Stock market closure and intraday stock index futures market volatility: “contagion”, bid–ask bias or both?

Chang et al. [Journal of Business 68 (1) (1995) 61] examine the impact of the closure of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on S&P500 stock index futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. They document a decline in futures market volatility immediately after the close of the NYSE, and an increase 15 minutes later when the futures market closes. They attribute this to contagion–i.e. a decline in information transfer from equities to futures markets following the closure of the underlying market. This paper examines the impact of the extension of trading hours in Hang Seng Index futures traded on the Hong Kong Futures Exchange on the 20 November, 1998 to 15 minutes after the close of the underlying market (the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong). Using the unique natural experiment provided by this change, a pattern similar to US markets is documented for the Hang Seng Index Futures following the change in trading hours. This provides strong evidence that the intraday pattern in volatility is caused by market closure. Unlike US futures exchanges, price reporters on the floor of the Hong Kong Futures Exchange collect quote data in addition to trade data. This data facilitates a test of another plausible microstructure explanation for the observed behaviour–bid–ask bounce associated with trading activity. This paper provides evidence that bid–ask bounce also explains part of the observed intraday behaviour in price volatility.     

Market Response to Liquidity Improvements: Evidence from Exchange Listings

The study examines a sample of 895 stocks that moved from Nasdaq to the New York Stock Exchange or to the American Stock Exchange (Amex) between 1971 and 1994. We show how various measures of liquidity such as the bid‐ask spread, trading volume, and stock price precision improve in somewhat different ways upon transfer to NYSE (Amex). We also find that reductions in trading costs (percentage spread) and in pricing error volatility (Hasbrouck's σ₅) can explain most of stock market's positive response to exchange listing. Thus, liquidity has many facets and cannot be represented by the bid‐ask spread alone.     

Time and dynamic volume–volatility relation

This paper examines volume and volatility dynamics by accounting for market activity measured by the time duration between two consecutive transactions. A time-consistent vector autoregressive (VAR) model is employed to test the dynamic relationship between return volatility and trades using intraday irregularly spaced transaction data. The model is used to identify the informed and uninformed components of return volatility and to estimate the speed of price adjustment to new information. It is found that volatility and volume are persistent and highly correlated with past volatility and volume. The time duration between trades has a negative effect on the volatility response to trades and correlation between trades. Consistent with microstructure theory, shorter time duration between trades implies higher probability of news arrival and higher volatility. Furthermore, bid–ask spreads are serially dependent and strongly affected by the informed trading and inventory costs.     

Stock splits in a retail dominant order driven market

This paper uses intraday and daily data from the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) between 2002 and 2004 to provide evidence that firms use stock splits to bring their stock prices down to a preferred trading range of their clientele base. Stock splits reduce bid–ask spreads and intraday and daily price impact while increasing depths supplied by retail investors who account for 60–70% of trading on the SET. Firms that choose a high split factor experience greater improvement in liquidity. The study finds no evidence that split announcements are used to signal post-split earnings performance.     

The Volatility of Bid‐Ask Spreads

This study tests whether the volatility of bid‐ask spreads is positively related to expected returns. After controlling for market‐risk factors, we find that the average risk‐adjusted excess return for stocks in the highest spread volatility quintile is around 50 basis points per month. In a variety of multivariate tests, we find robust evidence of a return premium associated with spread volatility that is both statistically significant and economically meaningful. Our results are robust to controls for a variety of stock characteristics, different tick‐size regimes, and other measures of liquidity volatility.     

Intraday patterns in London listed Exchange Traded Funds

In this paper we examine the intraday trading patterns of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) listed on the London Stock Exchange. ETFs have been shown to be characterised by much lower bid–ask spread costs and by lower levels of information asymmetry than individual securities. One possible explanation for intraday trading patterns is that concentration of trading arises at the start of the trading day because informed traders have private information that quickly diminishes in value as trading progresses. Since ETFs have lower trading costs and lower levels of information asymmetry we would expect these securities to display less pronounced intraday patterns than individual securities. We fail to find that ETFs are characterised by concentrated trading bouts during the day and therefore find support for the argument that information asymmetry is the cause of intraday volume patterns in stock markets. We find that ETF bid–ask spreads and volatility are elevated at the open but not at the close. This lends support to the “accumulation of information” explanation that sees high spreads and volatility at the open as a consequence of information accumulating during a market closure and impacting on the market when it next opens.     

The liquidity effects associated with addition of a stock to the S&P 500 index: evidence from bid/ask spreads

This study examines changes in stock liquidity, as measured by the bid/ask spread, when a stock is added to the S&P 500 Index. The paper presents evidence of a significant decrease in the bid/ask spread upon S&P 500 addition, however, this effect is limited to only those stocks that were not trading listed options. Further, the decrease in the bid/ask spread for nonoptioned stocks is accompanied by a significant and permanent increase in share price and trading volume. While optioned stocks experience a permanent increase in trading volume, they experience only a temporary increase in share price. The findings for optioned stocks support the hypothesis that the price and volume effects associated with S&P 500 addition derive from temporary price pressure. Findings pertaining to the nonoptioned stocks indicate that the price and volume effects associated with S&P addition reflect enhanced stock liquidity. The decrease in the bid/ask spread for nonoptioned stocks is attributed to informational efficiencies achieved via index arbitrage trading, and it is argued that this effect is mitigated for optioned stocks due to the pre-existence of arbitrage trading between the option and the underlying stock.     

The diversity of high-frequency traders

The regulatory debate concerning high-frequency trading (HFT) emphasizes the importance of distinguishing different HFT strategies and their influence on market quality. Using data from NASDAQ-OMX Stockholm, we compare market-making HFTs to opportunistic HFTs. We find that market makers constitute the lion's share of HFT trading volume (63–72%) and limit order traffic (81–86%). Furthermore, market makers have higher order-to-trade ratios and lower latency than opportunistic HFTs. In a natural experiment based on tick size changes, we find that the activity of market-making HFTs mitigates intraday price volatility.     

Effect of the ban on short selling on market prices and volatility

We examine the effects of the short‐selling ban, imposed by Australian regulators in the wake of the global financial crisis, on the trading of financial stocks. Our findings argue against commonly stated reasons for imposing short‐sale bans. We find no evidence that short‐sale restrictions provide support for stock prices or that they reduce volatility. Moreover, stocks subject to the short‐selling ban suffered a severe degradation in market quality. Controlling for the adverse effects of the financial crisis on markets, we show that short‐selling restrictions increase intraday volatility, reduce trading activity and increase bid–ask spreads.     

Price,volume and spread effects associated with the expiry of lock-in agreements: Evidence from the Hong Kong IPO market

We examine the price, volume and bid–ask spread reactions to lock-in expiries in Hong Kong IPOs. We show that the lock-in expiry causes an increase in both trading volume and bid–ask spread, but no significant change in the share price. We attribute the absence of a price reaction to the fact that most of the Hong Kong IPO firms are controlled by one or two non-institutional shareholders who choose not to sell their shares after the lock-in expiry. Another plausible reason for the absence of a price reaction may be the period studied by this paper which follows the publication of a number of studies on lock-in expiry. The publication of the anomaly may have arbitraged away any gains internationally. The absence of significant abnormal returns around the lock-in expiry confirms the semi-strong form of the efficient market hypothesis. Our results are consistent with the European evidence, but contradict the findings of most US studies. We show that the volume and spread increases are not caused by the sales by locked-in insiders around the lock-in expiry. The volume increase may be caused by the presence of undisclosed insider transactions around the lock-in expiry. This may well be the case, since the insider trading disclosure requirement does not apply to transactions that result in a change of less than one percentage point to an insider holding. Finally, we show that the wider spread is likely to be caused by market makers charging high information rent to protect themselves against potential trading with informed insiders.