Effectiveness of state-contingent monetary policy under a liquidity trap

Recent economic developments in Japan suggest that there is a growing interest in how monetary policy should be conducted under low inflation and nominal interest rates. In this paper, we first confirm the effectiveness of conventional wisdom against a liquidity trap, namely taking aggressive responses around the zero bound and variant of price level targeting so that it can intensify the policy duration effect, in the large scale dynamic general equilibrium model, the JEM (Japanese Economic Model). We then show that the optimal tangible policy rules around the zero bound are possibly state-contingent at the same time. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (3) (2006) 364–379.     

International co-movements and business cycle transmission between Korea and Japan

This study examines the economic relationship and interdependence between Korea and Japan. Using macroeconomic data, an event chronology, and trade flows, I examine the question, are business cycles transmitted from Japan to Korea, and/or from Korea to Japan? And, how has that transmission changed over time? The study uses structured vector autoregressions (SVARs) to analyze monthly data 1960.01–2002.01 on industrial production, prices, interest rates, money supplies, and exchange rates. Japanese business cycles are found to have a moderate effect upon business cycle fluctuations in Korea, and that influence seems to be increasing over time. J. Japanese Int. Economies 18 (1) (2004) 57–83.     

Habit persistence and the marginal propensity to consume in Japan

This paper presents a simple growth model with habit-forming preferences and uses aggregate Japanese data to estimate the parameters of the resulting Euler equation. These estimates imply a very low marginal propensity to consume out of permanent income and a slow adjustment of consumption over time after a permanent shock. J. Japanese Int. Economies 18 (3) (2004) 316–329.     

Evaluating monetary policy when nominal interest rates are almost zero

The non-negativity constraint on nominal interest rates may have been a major factor behind a putative structural break in the effectiveness of monetary policy. To check for the existence of such a break without making prior assumptions about timing, and to enable comparison between pre- and post-break monetary policy, we employ an identified Markov switching VAR framework. Estimation results support the existence of a structural break around the time when the de facto zero nominal interest rate policy was resumed and the effectiveness of monetary policy is seen to weaken since then although slightly positive effects from monetary easing still exist. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (3) (2006) 434–453.     

A simple test of the effect of interest rate defense

High interest rates to defend the exchange rate signal that a government is committed to fixed exchange rates, but may also signal weak fundamentals. We test the effectiveness of the interest rate defense by disaggregating into the effects on future interest rates differentials, expectations of future exchange rates, and risk premia. While much previous empirical work has been inconclusive due to offsetting effects, tests that “disaggregate” the effects provide significant information. Raising overnight interest rates strengthens the exchange rate over the short-term, but also leads to an expected depreciation at a horizon of a year and longer and an increase in the risk premium, consistent with the argument that it also signals weak fundamentals. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 612–636.     

The Chinese economies in global context: The integration process and its determinants

The linkages between the People's Republic of China and the other Chinese economies of Hong Kong and Taiwan are assessed, and compared against those with Japan and the US. We first characterize the time series behavior of three criteria of integration, namely real interest parity, uncovered interest parity, and relative purchasing power parity. There is evidence that these parity conditions tend to hold over longer periods between the People's Republic of China and all other economies, although they do not hold instantaneously. Overall, the magnitude of deviations from the parity conditions is shrinking over time. Amongst all, however, Hong Kong exhibits indications of a more advanced level of integration with the mainland. We also find that evidence is surprisingly positive for integration with the US. We then turn to examining the determinants of the degree of integration. Regression results suggest that the degree of financial and real integration depend upon the extent of capital controls, foreign direct investment linkages as well as exchange rate volatility. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (1) (2006) 128–153.     

Monetary policy under a liquidity trap: Simulation evidence for the euro area

In this paper, we analyze the conduct of monetary policy under a zero nominal interest-rate bound (hereafter ZIB) in a model economy of the euro area, namely that of the Area Wide Model. The aggregate euro-area economy is modeled to have relatively sluggish adjustment properties and a private sector with mainly backward-looking expectations. For a given ZIB benchmark, we consider variations in the monetary-policy reaction function to minimize the macro-economic consequences of such a deflationary regime. We rank the effectiveness of these remedial policies using a number of metrics and relate our results to features and properties of the model economy. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (3) (2006) 338–363.     

Financing consumption in an aging Japan: The role of foreign capital inflows and immigration

We project the impact of demographic change on Japanese capital flows by simulating the impact of population aging on Japanese saving and investment rates. As aging depresses saving rates, in our baseline projections, we show that by 2015, foreign capital inflows will comprise about 15 percent of Japanese output. A distinguishing feature of this paper is that we compare the capital flows that occur without immigration to the capital inflows that would occur with immigration of 400,000 people annually. With the larger labor force from immigration and the large induced capital accumulation, output will be 22 percent higher by 2020, and 50 percent higher by 2040. The higher output means that less capital needs to be imported; by 2015, Japan will be importing only 8 percent of its output. J. Japanese Int. Economies 18 (4) (2004) 506–527.     

The differences in the economic effects between the DB plan and the DC plan

This paper investigates the differences between the defined benefit plans (DB) and the defined contribution plans (DC) in the enterprise pension programs in Japan. Attention is paid not only to the effect of labor turnover but also to the difference in various categories of workers, which are classified by gender, education, timing of labor turnover, etc. Also, we take into consideration the effect of interest rates. One important conclusion of this paper is that the DC plan is superior to the DB plan, in contrast to the common belief. J. Japanese Int. Economies 18 (4) (2004) 551–564.     

Expectations formation and the effectiveness of strategies for limiting the consequences of the zero bound

We use simulations of the Federal Reserve's FRB/US model to examine the efficacy of a number of proposals for reducing the consequences of the zero bound on nominal interest rates. Among the proposals are: a more aggressive monetary policy; promises to make up any shortfall in monetary ease during the zero-bound period by keeping interest rates lower in the future; and the adoption of a price-level target. We consider two assumptions about expectations formation. One assumption is fully model-consistent expectations (MCE)—a reasonable assumption when a policy has been in place for some time, but perhaps less so for a newly announced policy. We therefore also consider the possibility that only financial markets have MCE, and that other agents form their expectations using a small-scale VAR model estimated using historical data. All of the policies noted above are highly effective at reducing the adverse effects of the zero bound under MCE, but their efficacy drops considerably when households and firms base their expectations on the historical average behavior of the economy, and only investors fully recognize the economic implications of the various proposals. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (3) (2006) 314–337.     

Quantitative easing and Japanese bank equity values

One of the primary motivations offered by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) for its quantitative easing program—whereby it maintained a current account balance target in excess of required reserves, effectively pegging short-term interest rates at zero—was to maintain credit extension by the troubled Japanese financial sector. We conduct an event study concerning the anticipated impact of quantitative easing on the Japanese banking sector by examining the impact of the introduction and expansion of the policy on Japanese bank equity values. We find that excess returns of Japanese banks were greater when increases in the BOJ current account balance target were accompanied by “non-standard” expansionary policies, such as raising the ceiling on BOJ purchases of long-term Japanese government bonds. We also provide cross-sectional evidence that suggests that the market perceived that the quantitative easing program would disproportionately benefit financially weaker Japanese banks. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 699–721.     

The transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Japan: Evidence from banks' balance sheets

We examine how banks' responses to monetary policy vary according to their balance sheet using Japanese bank data from 1975 to 1999. We find that the effect of monetary policy on lending is stronger for banks that are smaller, less liquid, and more abundant with capital. The effects of bank balance sheet on monetary transmission are different by bank types, policy stances and borrowers' industries. Our results imply that a lending channel of monetary transmission exists, that the effect of expansionary monetary policy is attenuated if banks' capital is scarce, and that the effect of monetary policy on the allocation of funds depends on banks' balance sheets. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (3) (2006) 380–405.     

Productivity loss and reinstatement as a legal remedy for unjust dismissal

There are two types of legal remedies for unjust dismissal, damages or reinstatement. Although workers' motivation is negatively influenced by employment adjustments such as a wage cut or layoffs, fired workers can receive a remedy when they are protected by dismissal regulations. We consider which legal remedy policy is better, damages or reinstatement, from the viewpoint of workers' motivation at workplaces. Under a reinstatement policy, firms are more likely to make an employment adjustment, and reinstatement is dominated by damages from the viewpoint of social welfare when the productivity loss caused by employment adjustment is minor. On the other hand, when the productivity loss is serious, employment adjustment is more likely made under the damages policy, and reinstatement can be desirable. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (1) (2007) 78–105.     

Long-Run Relationship between Consumption and Income in Japan: Tests of the Deterministic Cointegration Restriction

This paper reexamines two versions of the permanent income hypothesis derived from R. E. Hall (1978, J. Polit. Econ.86, 971–987) and R. G. King, C. L. Plosser, J. H. Stock, and M. W. Watson (1991, Amer. Econ. Rev.81, 819–840) using Japanese quarterly data. The main focus is on the relationship between stochastic and deterministic trends of consumption and income. It is found that the deterministic cointegration restriction implied by the two models is strongly rejected in Japan in contrast to the U.S. result, and the rejection of King et al.'s model depends on the existence of a trend break. This finding suggests that the postwar Japanese economy experienced the change in a steady state path considered by the neoclassical growth model. J. Japan. Int. Econ., June 2002, 16(2) pp. 253–278. Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, 2-1 Naka Kunitachi, Tokyo 186-8601, Japan. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C32, E21.     

Price dispersion across and within countries: The case of Japan and Korea

This paper analyzes the price difference between Japan and Korea by using goods-level consumer price data. The national border has a large effect on price dispersion in both time-series volatility analysis and cross-sectional difference analysis. By categorizing goods by their perishability, I find that absolute purchasing power parity (PPP) applies to a greater extent for durable goods. Although perishables deviate more from absolute PPP, the difference is due to distance. This implies that the source of price dispersion depends on the characteristics of goods. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (2) (2007) 237–259.     

Effectiveness of history-dependent monetary policy

In this paper, we evaluate the effectiveness of history-dependent monetary policy, focusing on the design of targeting regimes and simple policy rules. Our quantitative analysis is based on a small estimated forward-looking model of the Japanese economy with a hybrid Phillips curve. Our main findings are: (1) History-dependent targeting regimes, such as price level targeting and income growth targeting, outperform inflation targeting; (2) Committing to a simple history-dependent policy rule results in nearly the same social welfare as the optimal delegation of price level targeting and income growth targeting; (3) The central bank can achieve almost the same performance as the optimal commitment policy by adopting the first difference hybrid policy rule in which the change in interest rate responds to inflation, output gap, and real income growth rate. J. Japanese Int. Economies 18 (3) (2004) 330–361.     

The impact of family ownership and capital structures on productivity performance of Korean manufacturing firms: Corporate governance and the “chaebol problem”

This paper examines the relationship between corporate governance and productivity performance, focusing on family ownership and capital structure. Paying particular attention to chaebols, or large business groups with entrenched family control, diversified business structure, and heavy debt-dependence, we find the positive relationship between family ownership concentration and productivity performance to be much stronger in chaebol firms than in non-chaebol firms. Moreover, high debt reliance (or low equity–asset ratio) is shown to be negatively related to productivity performance in non-chaebol firms but positively in chaebol firms. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (2) (2006) 209–233.     

The Elusive Total Budget Outlay of the Japanese Government: An Inquiry into the Japanese National Accounts II

The gross expenditure by the general government sector in the Japanese National Accounts for 1997 was reported to be 180.5 trillion yen. This figure is known to exclude some components of the fiscal activity of the government. Hence, while this figure is well defined, it is incomplete as a measure of the total expenditure of the Japanese government. The Fiscal Statistics issued by the Ministry of Finance, on the other hand, reports that net total outlay of the central government alone for 1997 was 170.0 trillion yen. When the provincial and local governments' outlay is added and adjusted for duplication, the total outlay is estimated at 234 trillion yen. The definition for this figure, however, is quite vague. It is extremely difficult to pin down the total government expenditure from the fiscal records of the government. The measurement of other concepts encounters similar problems. In this paper, we explore reasons why the fiscal records of the Japanese government are so obscure. We also consider what may be done to generate measures of fiscal activities of the Japanese government that are easily interpretable and usable in assessing their macroeconomic impacts. J. Japan. Int. Econ., June 2002, 16(2) pp. 177–193. University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104, and NBER. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C82, H10, H50, H60, H70, H80.     

Generational accounting in Korea

This paper reassesses the long-term fiscal position of Korea using generational accounting, modified to reflect special features of the Korean fiscal situation, notably prospective changes in public pension benefits due to the pension system's maturation and increasing expenditure on social welfare programs consistent with convergence to levels in other OECD countries. Our findings suggest that unless policy toward existing generations is substantially altered, future generations will face a heavy fiscal burden. For reasonable growth and interest rate assumptions, the difference between 2000 newborns and those born after 2000 ranges from 60 to 180%. We also find that a substantial part of the fiscal burden on future generations is explained by the long-run budgetary imbalances of public pensions and Medical Insurance. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (2) (2006) 234–268.     

Trade bloc formation in inter-war Japan.: A gravity model analysis

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the trading system in the inter-war period concerning the Japanese Empire by means of border effect analysis in the gravity model. The results show sizeable and steadily increasing trading bloc border effects from the 1910s through the 1930s. This sizeable border effect might have resulted from many possible factors: trade diversion and creation due to increased protectionism and industrialisation in Korea and Formosa, certain political factors, and Japanese migration to Korea and Formosa, which contributed to a 52% increase of bloc border effects in mainland Japan. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (2) (2007) 214–236.