THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANALYTICAL TOOL*

The purpose of this article is to record the history of the national income and product accounts of the United States, concentrating on the period 1932–47. During that period the single national income aggregate evolved into a set of accounts and the estimates emerged as an important analytical tool. Interviews with participants in these developments were extensively utilized to trace the events, people, ideas, and other factors which shaped the history of the accounts. The generally recognized need for economic information during the Great Depression stimulated the request that the Department of Commerce undertake what became the first official continuing series on national income in the United States. These estimates were prepared with the cooperation of the National Bureau of Economic Research and were published in 1934. By the late 1930's, estimates were extended to include income by state and a monthly series. World War II was the impetus for the development of product, or expenditure, estimates. By the mid-1940's, the estimates had evolved into a set of income and product accounts–a consolidated production account, sector income and outlay accounts, and a consolidated saving-investment account–designed to provide a bird's-eye-view of the economy. During this period uses of the accounts widened; analysis of wartime production goals and anti-inflation policy are noteworthy examples. The National Income, 1947 Edition was the culmination of a period of intensive conceptual discussion, extension of data sources, and improvement of estimating techniques. Thereafter the mainlines of development are more familiar, encompassing refinement and elaboration of the estimates and proliferation of uses.     

CONSTANT WEALTH NATIONAL INCOME: ACCOUNTING FOR WAR DAMAGE WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE NETHERLANDS, 1940–45

The issue of the proper way to address and document crisis and disaster in the national accounts is brought into focus by analyzing a practical case: the damage caused by the Second World War as discussed at a 1945 Paris reparations conference. It is concluded that "what if" damage e.g. output not produced due to the war should not be included in the national accounts, but factual damage should. The method by which factual damage should be included must then be decided. The option of just showing the damage in the reconciliation accounts is rejected. Instead the introduction of an additional income concept into the accounts, constant wealth national income is proposed. This Hicksian concept deducts from standard national income the damage to all produced goods lasting longer than a year. The concept is illustrated with guesstimates for the Netherlands, 1940–45. Finally, by way of an illustration, the paper employs 1945 estimates of damage in the Netherlands in order to arrive at a constant wealth national income for 1940–45. It is shown that, in 1938 prices, constant wealth national income is very much lower than standard national income and thus far better reflects the decline in prosperity during these years.     

THE TREATMENT OF STOCK APPRECIATION IN THE MEASUREMENT OF NATIONAL INCOME*

In the latest official national income publication the Australian Commonwealth Statistician has altered the treatment of stock appreciation in the measurement of national income at current prices. Previously, stock appreciation had been included in both national expenditure and national product. Now the amount of stock appreciation (the difference between the change in the value of stocks and the value of the change in stocks) has been deducted from investment in stocks, and consequently national expenditure, and from trading incomes, and consequently national income. The former procedure (including stock appreciation in national expenditure and national product) had been advocated by the present author, when editor of the first official national income publications issued by the Commonwealth Statistician. In this note an attempt is made to set out the reasons for this view. A new approach is also suggested for handling the item of stock appreciation in national income accounts, which does not rest on the assumption that stock appreciation is a capital gain which should be excluded from trading incomes and national product.     

ON THE TREATMENT OF TAXES AND GOVERNMENT IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

Framed in the context of the ongoing revision of the 1993 System of National Accounts (SNA), this note proposes a new presentation of the National Accounts. While it does not require new information, nor difficult calculations, it is suggested to be conceptually clearer and practically simpler. The changes concern the treatment of taxes and government in the national accounts which imply that: (i) GDP, measured at basic price, is now exactly the sum of all value added, which is split in the compensation of employees and an enlarged operating surplus; (ii) the two functions of government are clearly distinguished in a modified sequence of accounts, that is, as producing non-market services up to the allocation of primary income account, and then as redistributing the national income; and (iii) with a conventional allocation of government services and GDP broken down between market GDP and non-market GDP, households remain the only final consumer and the so called question of consumption subsidies is resolved.     

AN EXAMINATION OF THE FEASIBILITY OF USING MONETARY DATA FOR NATIONAL INCOME ESTIMATES

In a number of underdeveloped countries today, adequate statistics for estimating national output by traditional national accounting methods are unavailable or unreliable. However, many of these same countries do publish data on monetary variables at an early stage in their development. These data can now be used to estimate national income.
In this study the money supply was defined to include all currency in circulation, private deposits subject to check at all banks and postal systems, all government deposits, and unused overdrafts less float. The national accounts data were taken from United Nations sources and data supplied by various foreign statistical offices. To make the accounts more comparable in terms of coverage and to limit reported income to the monetized sector of the economy, non-monetary imputations were deleted.
The monetary and national accounts data were combined in a multiple, stepwise regression. National income was used as the dependent variable and money supply and other data were used as the independent variables. The final estimating equations explained about 96 per cent of the variation in income between countries. Other tests were conducted using the currency ratio, transactions velocity, population, and per capita consumption. However, these variables did not augment the explanatory power of the regression equations.
When the equations were used to estimate national income for twenty-two under-developed countries, the derived estimates showed a high degree of concordance with reported income where it existed for comparative purposes. The results indicate that monetary data can be used to estimate national income for underdeveloped countries with a relatively high degree of accuracy, between countries, and from year to year within a country.     

SUGGESTIONS FOR TREATMENT OF HUMAN CAPITAL IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTS—WITH ILLUSTRATIONS FROM INDIAN DATA*

After giving a brief discussion of the biases that exist in the conventional estimation procedures followed in the construction of national accounts, this paper argues for restructuring of national accounts so as to treat human capital formation as investment rather than consumption and suggests that a beginning should be made in respect of schooling. The argument is based on the notion that “investment” or “capital” is that which yields future income streams and also on the rather obvious point that treating as consumption large outlays that really constitute investment distorts analyses of resource allocation, growth and income distribution, and obscures intersectoral relations. It is pointed out that the proposed restructuring of national accounts is more relevant and important for developing countries, many of which are embarked on investment planning. Another major point emphasized is that the input of students’time should be properly measured and included in the estimates of capital formation by schooling. To illustrate what these proposals imply, revision has been attempted of the estimates of (a) educational outlay (or activity in the education sector), (b) gross capital formation, and (c) gross national product, pertaining to the national accounts of a major developing country, namely India, for the years 1960–61 through 1965–66. The modified estimates, though first approximations and covering only a part of the human capital formation and having a systematically downward bias, nevertheless indicate an upward revision of the estimate of activity in the education sector by about 200 to 300 percent, of gross capital formation by about 50 percent and of the gross national product by 4 to 7 percent. These magnitudes show the substantial order of distortion involved in the conventional procedures.     

PROBLEMS OF A CENSUS OF NATIONAL WEALTH

This paper is essentially a summary of the book Measuring the Nation's Wealth (Volume 29, Studies in Income and Wealth, New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1964), which is the report of study directed by the author. The purpose o f the study was to assess the problems and possibilities of conducting a national census of real wealth as a basis for continuing wealth and balance sheet estimates for the U.S. economy, by major sector.
It is stressed that the balance sheets and wealth estimates should be designed as a consistent part of an integrated system of national income accounts. Thus, valuation (at market prices and/or depreciated replacement costs), sectoring, and type-of-asset detail in the basic data and derived estimates should be compatible with the flow estimates contained in the economic accounts. Consistency of stock and flow estimates facilitates analysis of inter-relationships, and is helpful in the estimation process.
It is recommended that in the U.S. asset data by broad categories be collected as part of the recurring economic censuses and other reporting systems, but that detail on fixed reproducible assets (construction and equipment) at cost, by year or period of acquisition, be obtained from a small sample of respondents in each industry. The detail would be useful in its own right, and also permit revaluation of the assets by use of price indexes and depreciation rates to a current depreciated replacement cost basis. Where feasible, respondent estimates of market values would also be obtained.
The proposal is thus a compromise between the Japanese 1955 sample survey of assets, and the detailed wealth inventory of the U.S.S.R. which was begun in 1959. Preliminary work is now underway in the U.S. federal statistical agencies to expand collection of asset data, and to prepare comprehensive wealth estimates in the framework of the national income accounts.     

CONCEPT AND DEFINITION OF INCOME IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

It is a truism that the national accounts have engendered their own concept of income which is different from other contexts such as business accounting, taxation or welfare analysis. Less known are the principles on which this income concept is based. This article is an attempt to specify such principles, investigating in particular the role of the transaction principle, and to derive an income concept therefrom. The crucial point of the argument is whether or not it is appropriate within the system of the national accounts to assign an income to sectors other than the households. The theory is applied to some practical questions which have been discussed in the process of the revision of the SNA.     

THE UNITED NATIONS SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

After an introduction setting out the general state of work on the national accounts in the Middle East the author considers the principal uses of national accounts statistics in less developed countries. The first group of uses discussed is in connexion with the measurement of growth and the making of international comparisons. The author is of the opinion that in many cases the primary statistical series are so weak that the fact they they are combined together into a series called national income or gross domestic product lends to them a significance which they do not really possess. The real problem is to improve the quality of the primary series. A second use of national accounts statistics is in connexion with fiscal and budgetary policy. In the statistically advanced countries this is one of the most important uses but in the less developed countries budgetary policy has not yet reached a level of sophistication which would call for the use of national accounts data. Moreover, the time factor involved in assembling accurate national accounts estimates militates against their effective use for short term forecasting. The author considers that the most important use for national accounts statistics is to provide a framework for development planning. The United Nations system is not altogether appropriate for this purpose. It grew up primarily as a system for recording income flows but in development planning one is concerned equally with commodity flows with a great deal of attention being focussed upon intermediate products. The proposals of the working group of African Statisticians for an adaptation of the S.N.A. to African countries represents a most important advance in this respect. In the final section of the paper the author advocates a broader definition of capital formation to include developmental expenditure which is not properly defined as fixed capital formation. Education expenditure is cited as an example. It is suggested that in the national accounts it would be desirable to operate with gross concepts. However, the growth of the capital stock is obviously important in less developed countries and it is suggested that statistical techniques be devised to measure it directly wherever possible. Finally, attention is drawn to the ambiguities and weaknesses in the concept of residence as used at present in the S.N.A.     

REINVESTED EARNINGS IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The paper raises three questions. Firstly, is it warranted that a significant part of primary (property) income is not shown in the national accounts as being distributed to the owners of the assets to which it accrues but ends up as capital gains in the revaluation account? Secondly, why has the SNA chosen not to record reinvested earnings of corporations as flows of property income with the exception of foreign direct investment, and thirdly why the asymmetrical recording of stock investments constituting more than 10 percent of equity capital depending on whether domestic or foreign transactions are concerned? Reinvested earnings on domestic equity investment above 10 percent of a corporation are not recorded as property income in the system. The paper looks at these three questions from the perspective of the analytical uses of national accounts. The consequences for the analysis of income distribution both between nations and within nations are examined.     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME BETWEEN SOCIO-ECONOMIC GROUPS IN THE NETHERLANDS

This paper reports on a study designed to improve the information on income flows and income distribution in the Netherlands national accounts by building a bridge between the national accounts and income tax statistics. The methods used are described in some detail, and the significance of the results obtained is discussed. The figures show rather substantial fluctuations in the share of proprietors relative to that of wage earners. This result is not unexpected, since the share of proprietors is much more sensitive to the level of economic activity, but it does limit the usefulness of the figures for short-run economic policy determination. In the longer run, however, they do show what the development of the average incomes of the various social groups has been, and to what extent government action has contributed to that development.     

A NEW METHOD OF ASSESSMENT OF THE INSURANCE SERVICE PRODUCTION

The French national accounts applied the insurance production assessment method recommended by the European system of accounts (ESA), for the years 1970 to 1985, in a particularly turbulent economic and financial environment. A better understanding of the sector was thereby obtained, but the problems set by the very "technical" production assessment method were thus brought to light. These problems are still not solved by the present accounting system, since, to summarize matters, it hides the importance of the sector's "financial" activity, whereas in fact the income drawn from this activity contributes to a high extent to the global balance of insurance operations. This is of course related to the reasons why in certain countries insurance companies are considered more as savings collecting and investment institutions rather than risk transformers.
This report sheds light on the significance of the present premiums, indemnities and reserves recording method and then presents the new method chosen by the french accounts to assess production; finally it analyses the remaining difficulties relating mainly to capital gains.     

A REVIEW OF SELECTED ASPECTS OF THE UNITED NATIONS SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN THE LIGHT OF COUNTRIES’ EXPERIENCES*

A review of the United Nations System of National Accounts and its implementation by countries is presently being conducted at the United Nations Statistical Office. This article presents a personal and selective account by the author of the results of that review and its consequences for the present structure of the SNA. Information is included on the level of response by countries for the tables of the SNA national accounts questionnaire. It shows that this response is at present sparce, except for the tables on GDP by end use, cost structure and kind of economic activity. On the more detailed level the feasibility of introducing integrated sector accounts into the system has been examined and different approaches compared. Country practices suggest that one way of facilitating the introduction of such accounts would be to eliminate one essential feature of the dual classification of the SNA, i.e., the distinction between quasi-corporate and other unincorporated enterprises. Other modifications of the SNA structure implied below are the introduction on a limited scale of articulation of transactions, the inclusion of additional aggregate income and balancing items, a reallocation of data between the main accounts and the supporting tables, and a better integration of the SNA matrix with the accounts and tables of the system. A reduction of the present number of independent classifications in the SNA is suggested, based on links between categories of different classifications that are assumed in country responses to the questionnaire. A suggestion is made for a uniform valuation of goods and services and income flows, to replace the present complex valuation guidelines on approximate basic and factor values and producers’ prices.     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN ARGENTINA*

The history of national accounting in Argentina is presented in brief. The use of the production method as a basis for GDP estimates is explained and sources and methods of deriving the estimates for different sectors are commented on in some detail. Next the reliability of the estimates is examined for sectoral product, national income by factor shares and the components of final expenditure in terms of the comparison of two different estimates for the period 1950–1963. The degree of accuracy is judged to be generally sufficient, but the importance of economic censuses in the process of estimation is stressed. The importance of detailed studies on several different aspects of the economic structure (input-output, personal and family income by size and regional accounts) is also stressed as a basis for improving the reliability of estimates.     

论建立公平与效率协调统一的收入分配制度

本文考察了我国社会主义市场经济下如何建立公平与效率协调统一的收入分配制度问题。本文认为，在微观领域，要建立生产条件分配和收入分配相结合的微观制度，建立自由与管制相结合的市场协调制度；在宏观领域，需要实行统一的国民待遇制度，相应建立公平与效率协调统一的收入和支出方面的调节制度，同时建立再分配过程中的权力制衡机制，最终形成公平与效率协调统一的收入分配制度。     

EXPERIENCES AND PROBLEMS OF THE CIS COUNTRIES IN TRANSITION FROM THE MPS TO THE SNA

This paper reviews the transition of national accounts in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries from the Material Product System (MPS) to the United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA) and discusses the major problems that still need to be solved in order to improve the quality of their national accounts. It argues that the MPS practice tended to exaggerate growth not because of different concepts, but because of methodological problems such as inadequate deflation due to poor price data and incomplete coverage of the non-observed economy as well as overpricing of new or modified products and institutional flaws that motivated data fabrication by enterprises. However, the heritages of the problems under the MPS, together with the emerging new types of institutional units, new sources of income and market-driven new services, have made the transition difficult.     

A BALANCED SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM

This paper describes the construction of a disaggregated system of 262 national accounts for the U.K. economy in 1975. The objective is to remove the discrepancies between income, expenditure, production and financial estimates which occur in practice. This is done with the aid of a generalized least squares algorithm for adjusting national accounts with subjective estimates of reliability of the various account items. The balanced system of accounts provides the cross-section data base needed for the estimation of a consistent multisectoral dynamic model of the U.K. economy and yields the classification converters and input-output tables necessary for such a model.     

INCOME AND THE HAMILTONIAN1

Among the many interpretations of real national income are (i) the return to national wealth and (ii) the Hamiltonian of an appropriately-chosen dynamic model of the economy. These interpretations are sometimes alleged to be equivalent and to constitute the self-evidently ideal definition to which statistics of real national income should conform as closely as possible., The allegation is correct on some very restrictive assumptions about technology and taste. Otherwise, these interpretations are inconsistent, inexpedient as definitions of real national income and significantly at variance with the usage in the national accounts. The return to wealth is unmeasurable with the currently-available data. The Hamiltonian is typically in the wrong units. It is an accurate reflection of neither productive capacity nor welfare in an intertemporal context. It is not well-defined in a tax-distorted economy. It is rarely an indicator of the return to wealth.

A personn's income is "the maximum value he can consume during a week and still be as well off at the end of the week as he was at the beginning"

J. R. Hicks²     

DOES CONSUMPTION ENTAIL INCOME? IMPLICATIONS OF THE DUAL CLASSIFICATION OF CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE FOR THE INCOME SIDE OF THE HOUSEHOLD SECTOR IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS*

In the future revision of the SNA the dual classification of flows in the national accounts will gain some importance with respect to consumption expenditures. It is likely that outlays of different institutions for consumption are added to form a new aggregate “individual consumption.” The question is whether this development requires an adjustment on the income side of the household accounts. In order to find an answer it is first necessary to scrutinize the concept of disposable income in its standard form, and in its different variations. The result is a distinction between “disposable income in the strict sense” and “income after distribution,” where the standard definition actually realizes the latter concept. It is then shown that the dual structure of the accounts does not permit the adding of individual consumption to saving of households so that the concept of enlarged income defeats its purpose.