欧元区主权债务危机分析

欧元区主权债务危机的爆发缘于欧元区分散的财政政策与统一的货币政策之间的二元矛盾;欧元区国家不可持续的社会经济结构模式;全球金融危机的冲击。欧元区主权债务危机从债权安全、国际贸易、汇率改革、人民币国际化等方面给我国带来挑战和机遇。欧洲主权债务危机对我国的总体影响是有限的,我国在近期也不可能出现主权债务危机,可以从欧元区主权债务危机中得到启示:加快经济结构优化调整;规范地方政府融资行为;谨慎开展区域货币一体化合作。     

国家信用风险、主权信用评级与主权债务危机——结合反身性原理论证三者逻辑关系

本文运用反身性原理分析国家信用风险、主权信用评级与主权债务危机逻辑关系。评估国家信用风险需要主权信用评级,主权信用评级不能预测主权债务危机,现实是评级的突然下调常是债务危机的直接诱因,或是其滞后性导致危机的加强。     

希腊债务危机的演变回顾

文章以希腊主权债务危机为主线,首先回顾了自次贷危机以来希腊主权债务危机的演进过程,并对近期危机再次爆发的相关事件进行了详细梳理,最后对希腊主权债务危机的主要危机再掀波澜进行描述与思考。     

关于主权债务危机的思考

本文以迪拜和希腊为例,分析了主权债务危机爆发的原因及其影响。主权债务危机很大一部分是由于债务国本身的经济发展模式存在问题,在遭受外部冲击时无力偿还到期债务而造成的;这不仅会对债权国和相关企业造成损失,还会对全球经济产生一定的间接影响。作为新兴市场国家,中国应从中吸取经验教训,健全本国经济金融体制,并建立合理的风险预警机制。     

关于主权债务危机的思考

本文以迪拜和希腊为例,分析了主权债务危机爆发的原因及其影响。主权债务危机很大一部分是由于债务国本身的经济发展模式存在问题,在遭受外部冲击时无力偿还到期债务而造成的;这不仅会对债权国和相关企业造成损失,还会对全球经济产生一定的间接影响。作为新兴市场国家,中国应从中吸取经验教训,健全本国经济金融体制,并建立合理的风险预警机制。     

浅析后危机时代产物——主权债务危机

在经历2008年金融危机之后,2009年的主权债务危机让全世界都变得提心吊胆,在后危机时代,主权债务危机屡屡发生,对此,我们应该如何认识?我们又能从中学习到什么?我们应该如何防范主权债务危机?本文就主权债务危机的爆发原因、影响进行分析和探讨,旨在警示中国应该在恢复经济的进程注意主权债务问题。     

宏观政策的协调机制与欧洲债务危机

通过政策调整损失函数的理论模型分析,认为负的需求冲击是构成欧洲债务危机的前提,而缺乏货币政策协调的持续性扩张财政政策是欧洲债务危机的本质原因。对2000Q1—2010Q1的"PIIGS"的季度数据进行实证分析后,发现5国独立财政政策和欧元区共同货币政策的协调机制是存在冲突的。希腊长期均衡和短期调整均存在主权债务危机风险,因而成为首个爆发危机的国家。西班牙、意大利的短期调整虽暂时缓解了主权债务危机出现的可能,但不能解决发生危机的根本问题。而爱尔兰、葡萄牙只是短期内实施了过度的积极财政计划而造成了主权债务危机假象。     

谈当前国际主权债务危机的新特点

当前,国际主权债务危机仍然在蔓延,与历史上的历次主权债务危机相比,这一轮国际主权债务危机在危机主体、分布范围、特别是危机治理三个方面具有不同的特点,研究这些特点对于更好地认识和研究主权债务危机问题具有重要意义。     

欧洲主权债务危机的治理及其制约分析

欧洲主权债务危机发生以来,尽管欧盟、国际货币基金组织采取了一系列的危机治理措施,但到目前为止没有出现危机好转的迹象。欧盟如何进行危机的治理,制约危机治理的因素又在那里,这是讨论欧洲主权债务危机的焦点,只有清楚危机治理的制约性因素,欧洲主权债务危机的治理才能起到立竿见影的效果。     

美欧主权债务危机的前景及影响

当前,全球经济复苏进程仍不稳固,欧美主要发达经济体的主权债务风险将成为全球经济复苏的重大威胁,对我国经济发展也有十分不利的影响。本文从全球主权债务形势、美国提高债务上限的影响、欧洲主权债务危机的前景以及对中国的影响等四个方面对全球主权债务危机进行了全面详尽的分析,并给予相应的政策建议。     

Quantification of sovereign risk: Using the information in equity market prices

This paper proposes a new approach to quantify the sovereign risk. We use the information of the stock price index as a proxy for the equity value of the country, and introduce a size parameter, which is a conversion factor of the stock price index to the equity value of the country, and adopted the extended Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model for the calculation of the probability of default. Our model is applied on two countries, Argentina as the case of debt crisis and Thailand as currency crisis. We demonstrated a capability of our model as an early warning indicator for both crises.     

欧洲主权债务危机及其影响

2010年2月初以来,随着美国次贷危机对各国经济的影响逐步消退、世界经济复苏越来越明显,欧洲主权债务危机开始进入人们的视野,国际金融市场出现震荡。欧洲主权债务危机对我国的影响主要是间接性的汇率风险,即我国巨额外汇储备中欧元部分的趋势性贬值风险。但是,我国应未雨绸缪,提早做好准备,主动积极应对欧洲主权债务危机。     

European Sovereign Debt Crisis's Influence and Enlightenment on China

对中国的欧洲主权债务危机从形成到逐步影响中国的各个方面进行详尽分析和探讨,包括对汇率、对外贸易、金融政策等的影响,指出应以欧洲主权债务危机为戒,改进中国地方政府债务的监管体制。     

欧洲主权债务危机及其对中欧贸易的影响研究

随着希腊主权债务危机的爆发,整个欧元区乃至全球又一次地笼罩在经济危机的阴影下。由于欧元体制等问题,使得希腊的债务危机逐渐演变成为欧元区债务危机,其对全球金融市场和主要经济体都产生了重大的影响。本文首先阐述欧债危机产生的背景和原因,进而分析欧债危机对中欧贸易的主要影响,并提出相应的对策建议。     

Debt developments and fiscal adjustment in the EU

Since the financial crisis in 2008–09, concern over the sustainability of some EU countries’ sovereign debt has continued to mount higher and higher. This paper explores the ways in which the financial crisis caused the deterioration of European debt-to-GDP ratios, examines which countries are on sustainable debt paths and quantifies the fiscal adjustment required per country for debt sustainability.     

Designing a Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism for a European Monetary Fund

The establishment of a European Monetary Fund (EMF) enjoys increasing academic and political support, though its advocates do not necessarily agree on the purpose and functions of such an institution. This paper aims to examine the features of the EMF that are relevant to sovereign debt restructuring. We argue that a European sovereign debt restructuring mechanism would be a feasible and useful tool in a crisis. It would facilitate private sector involvement and convey all the advantages that pre-defined procedures offer compared to ad hoc solutions in dealing with a crisis.     

Von der Staatsverschuldung zum Staatsbankrott?

The increase of sovereign debt and the crisis in the Eurozone led to a public discussion about the possibility and the causes of a sovereign default. This paper shows by looking at the development in the Eurozone that for a government defaulting on its debt the amount of sovereign debt is not crucial; the essential question is whether a government is able to borrow in its own currency and — if that is not the case — the amount of international debt of the whole country. This leads to important conclusions for European economic policy.     

欧洲经济发展问题浅析

随着欧洲主权债务危机的越演越烈,人们一直在探讨债务危机发生的原因,但很少从深层次的角度分析欧洲经济发生危机最根本的原因。欧洲在过去的几十年里,经济发展一直仅次于美国,但近些年的发展明显滞后于美国,本文从欧洲的经济制度、政策模式、技术创新等方面分析了经济发展缓慢的原因及未来的几年内欧洲面临的挑战。     

Sovereign bond spreads determinants in Latin American countries: Before and during the XXI financial crisis

This paper aims to identify the main determinants of sovereign bond spreads in seven Latin American countries and verify the existence of contagion effect over these markets during the last financial crisis. We apply a panel data framework and find that the inflation, terms of trade ratio and the external debt and international reserves (both as percentage of GDP) are key drivers of sovereign bond spreads. Moreover, we test the crisis impact over emerging economies. Our results show that the crisis has a statistically significant impact on the EMBIG spreads since 2008.     

Sovereign default and debt renegotiation

This paper develops a small open economy model to study sovereign default and debt renegotiation for emerging economies. The model features both endogenous default and endogenous debt recovery rates. Sovereign bonds are priced to compensate creditors for the risk of default and the risk of debt restructuring. The model captures the interaction between sovereign default and ex post debt renegotiation. We find that both debt recovery rates and sovereign bond prices decrease with the level of debt. In a quantitative analysis, the model accounts for the debt reduction, volatile and countercyclical bond spreads, countercyclical trade balance, and other empirical regularities of the Argentine economy. The model also replicates the dynamics of bond spreads during the debt crisis in Argentina.