Cyclical industrial dynamics: The case of the global semiconductor industry

In this paper, we focus on firms' cyclical behavior in the global semiconductor industry. We demonstrate that these cyclical dynamics at the industry level differ from both the business cycles at the macro-economic level and the lengthy industrial technology life cycle. We discuss a range of possible causes of those cyclical industrial dynamics, including the general business cycles as well as industry-specific factors. Our study reports three stylized facts in relation to the cyclical industrial dynamics in the global semiconductor industry: first, the industry is more concentrated during the industry cycle downturns; second, the capital investment of the industry as a whole follows a ‘pro-cyclical’ pattern; and third, firms that pursued a ‘counter-cyclical’ capital investment strategy during the industry cycle downturn have reaped rewards during the subsequent cycle period. These facts suggest that cyclical industrial dynamics, especially the industry cycle downturns, play an important role in firm rivalry, strategic positioning and industrial growth.     

The within-distribution business cycle dynamics of German firms

In this article, we analyse stylized facts for Germany's business cycle at the firm level. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from the Bundesbank's balance sheet statistics covering, on average, 55 000 firms per year from 1971 to 1998, we estimate transition probabilities of a firm in a certain real sales growth regime switching to another regime in the next period, e.g. whether a firm that has witnessed a high growth rate is likely to stay in a regime of high growth or is bound to switch to a regime of low growth in the subsequent period. We find that these probabilities depend on the business cycle position.     

Business type,industry value chain,and R&D performance: Evidence from high-tech firms in an emerging market

This study focuses on how the business type and technological learning mode, which a high-tech firm chooses based on its core competence, influence the firm's R&D strategies, which in turn affect firm performance. This study also explores how the interaction between a firm's business type and industry value chain stage affects the relationship between R&D investments and operating performance. We suggest that the linkage of R&D investments and operating performance will increase gradually, when firms move from contract manufacturing to own brand business. R&D investments can contribute more to performance when firms adopt the hybrid business type. Furthermore, R&D investments generate more significant benefits for the own brand companies than the contract manufacturers at the same stage of the industry value chain. R&D investments of the downstream contract manufacturers have a negative impact on firm performance. Regardless of business type, firms in the upstream (midstream) stage of the industry value chain outperform downstream stage firms in deriving benefits from R&D activities. Finally, the lagged effects of R&D investments on operating performance are affected by the interaction between business type and industry value chain.     

The Determinants of Firm Profitability in Australian Manufacturing

This study provides new evidence on the determinants of the profitability of Australian manufacturing firms by analyzing a unique firm-level data set of firm performance over the period 1984-93. The panel nature of the data permits the estimation of dynamic profitability models over the business cycle, to test both the persistence and cyclicality of firm profitability. Econometric results suggest that lagged profitability is a significant determinant of current profit margins, and that industry concentration is positively related to firm profit margins. Also, profit margins are found to be procyciical in concentrated industries but counter-cyclical in less concentrated industries.     

Are small employers more cyclically sensitive? Evidence from Brazil

An important issue facing policymakers is the degree to which fluctuations in economic activity affect employment in large and small businesses across sectors and regions. This issue is particularly relevant for developing countries as it matters for the understanding of the labour market dynamics, and for devising national, sectoral, and regional labour policies that aim at dampening employment fluctuations, particularly during recessions. Using a unique monthly dataset of 27 states and eight industries from 2000:1 to 2009:7, this paper evaluates the sensitivity of businesses of different sizes to business cycle conditions in Brazil. The behaviour of the difference in employment growth rates between large and small firms is counter-cyclical and suggests that small firms are more sensitive to business cycle conditions. In addition, the SVAR impulse response analysis suggests the existence of the effect of small firms hiring cheaply from unemployment proportionally more than large ones. On the other hand, credit constraints seem to hit small firms harder and help to explain the empirical regularity that small firms are more cyclically sensitive than large ones for the Brazilian case.     

The Determinants of Firm’s Growth in the Telecommunication Services Industry: Empirical Evidence from India

The growth and evolution of the industry has an important bearing on the economic development of a country. The extant literature on firm growth provides valuable insights into firm behavior and factors influencing the evolution of the industry over time. The topic becomes even more relevant in the context of the telecommunication industry because of its positive impact on economic growth and productivity, which has been well documented in both the developed and developing country context. Based on the firm-growth literature, this study analyzes the factors influencing the growth of the Indian telecommunication industry using an unbalanced panel of 204 firms across two decades from 2000 to 2020. Dynamic Panel estimation technique (System GMM) is used to take care of endogeneity issues caused by the dynamic nature of firm growth models. Results indicate that the growth of firms in the Indian telecom services industry is explained by systematic factors like size, age, profitability, financial leverage, and trade orientation. The study finds that the larger firms grow at a decreasing rate compared to small firms. The firm's age negatively impacts the growth rate of firms, i.e., younger firms have a faster growth rate than the older ones supporting the case of convergence of firm growth in the Indian telecom services sector. Factors such as lagged R&D intensity, financial leverage, and profitability negatively impact the firms’ growth rate. Export intensity is found to have a negative and significant impact on the growth rate of the firms. The findings have important policy implications in the context of the growth of the telecommunication industry in India, which has witnessed intense competition, steep decline in profitability, and high debt structure over a period of time.

     

Does the Effectiveness of Employment Incentive Programs Vary by Firm Size?

This article examines the impact of national employment incentive programs on employment growth of individual firms in the original fifteen member states of the European Union (EU-15). We investigate whether this impact differs among firms of different size classes, and whether the effectiveness of employment incentive programs depends on the business cycle. We find that expenditures on employment incentives have a positive impact on employment growth for firms of all sizes. However, this impact is significantly reduced for smaller firms, suggesting that employment incentive programs are less effective for small firms. We also find that the employment impact of incentive programs is stronger during recessionary periods, but only for firms without any employees (i.e., own-account workers).     

Stylised facts and other empirical evidence on firm dynamics,business cycle and growth

In this paper, we bring together, in a systematised fashion, the scattered empirical evidence relating firm dynamics with both short-run and long-run macroeconomic dynamics. There are numerous studies that focus on firm-level data while controlling for macroeconomic conditions. From these studies a fairly robust set of empirical regularities pertaining to entry, exit, growth and the size distribution of firms has emerged. However, the literature that focuses explicitly on the interplay between firm dynamics and the business cycle is roughly confined to the US experience and to the cyclical properties of firm entry and exit, while the studies about the relationship between firm dynamics and economic growth are limited and unsystematic. We also give a brief account of the most recent theoretical literature on firm dynamics and macroeconomic dynamics, and try to relate it to the empirical findings.     

The joint effects of financial development and the business environment on firm growth: Evidence from Vietnam

This work examines the complementary effects of local financial development and the business environment on the growth of Vietnamese firms. For the period from 2009 to 2013, we combine firm-level data covering more than 40,000 firms from the Vietnam Enterprise Survey with province-level data from the Vietnam Provincial Competitiveness Indicators. Our estimation strategy builds upon a novel copula-based estimator that accounts for potential endogeneity biases without requiring external instruments. Our results show that financial development and a favourable business environment generally promote firm growth, but some components of the business environment, such as low entry costs, access to land and business service support, foster firm growth more strongly than financial development. Most importantly, financial development and the business environment interact positively in their effects on firm growth. The impact of local financial development on firm growth is higher in provinces with a competitive business environment. Conversely, improvements in provincial competitiveness have a greater impact on firm growth in provinces with a more developed financial sector. The results clearly show that policies to promote local financial development need to be coordinated with measures to improve the broader business environment.     

Gender diversity,cash holdings and the role of the institutional environment: empirical evidence in Europe

While substantial evidence is emerging internationally on higher risk aversion among women than among men, there is less evidence on women’s business choices. We explore some of the reasons for the relationship between gender diversity and cash holdings. Specifically, this paper focuses on the choices involving the stock of cash held by firms in which women have executive roles and can consequently exert a crucial influence on the firms themselves. We estimate our proposed empirical models using a dataset of 12,466 observations from 18 European countries. We find a positive relationship between the presence of women with executive roles in the firm and cash holdings. Women tend to make more conservative choices probably because they are more risk averse than men are. This propensity has a relevant impact on the financial choices of firms when women play a leading role. Notably, the study demonstrates that the institutional environment and industry differences moderate our baseline relationship.     

What influences firms’ perceptions?

Perceptions-based indicators are sometimes used to measure the quality of the business environment. For instance, firms are asked about the major constraints on business operations and expansion. Little is known, however, about what shapes their responses. In this paper, using perceptions-based indicators from 38 countries (84 country-year pairs) from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys, we argue that firm responses are critically influenced by macroeconomic conditions. Paradoxically, we find that perceptions worsen during periods of high GDP growth. We also examine other indicators from the Enterprise Surveys that are objective measures of constraints, and find mixed evidence on how business constraints vary with the business cycle. Finally, we find that firms that introduce new product lines, which are likely those with the most interactions with regulatory agencies, have particularly bad perceptions of the business environment. We conclude that changes in firms’ perceptions over time may not reflect changes in the business environment.     

Uncertainty,firm entry,and investment dynamics

Previous macro- and micro-level evidence indicate that fluctuations in idiosyncratic uncertainty have an important effect on investment, both directly and indirectly through financial market frictions. The objective of this paper was to explore, beyond the two traditional and complementary channels, a new one: firm entry. By utilizing a novel and large dataset on Greek firms covering the entire economy over the period 2000–2014 and employing a panel-VAR methodology, we examine and evaluate the impact of shocks to the number of startups, idiosyncratic uncertainty, and financial conditions on the investment growth at the industry level. Our findings can be summarized as follows. First, a shock to the number of new firms has significant effects on investment that persist for many years. Second, although all the three variables are important drivers of investment growth dynamics, uncertainty has the largest impact (explaining about the 15% of the variability of investment growth), firm creation follows (it explains about the 7%), while financial conditions have the smallest direct effect (explaining the 3.5%). Finally, we demonstrate that firm entry constitutes an important propagation mechanism for the transmission of uncertainty shocks in the investment growth trajectories.     

Business cycles and research investment

This paper examines the impact of uncertainty and the business cycle on US high-tech manufacturing firms’ research investment. Although the reliance on internal financing suggests firms will consider uncertainty and the business cycle when determining their research budget, little is known about how the business cycle and uncertainty influence research investment. Using firm-level data on sales, cash flow, and industry-level indicators of the business cycle, this paper finds that the firm's response to the business depends on the firm's industry and the industry's current location in the business cycle. The data also shows that the business cycle also depresses the firm's reaction to changes in sales and cash flow. Uncertainty clearly reduces research efforts, although non-linearly.     

Firm Size Distribution and Growth*

Abstract Empirical documentation of the sectoral distribution of firm size for a set of European countries reveals substantial differences. We study the relationship between productivity growth at the industry level and size structure. A positive and robust relation is found between average firm size and growth. We ask why size should matter for growth by considering the role of innovation to construct a test based on the differential effect of size on growth according to various indicators of R&D intensity. Our results indicate that larger size fosters productivity growth because it allows firms to take advantage of all the increasing returns associated with R&D. We argue that our test can be interpreted as a test of reverse causality, which lends support to the view that firm size has a causal impact on growth.     

The impact of new goods and service products on firm growth: evidence from Austrian-linked firm-level data

Using a matched innovation survey and structural business statistics, we investigate the impact of the introduction of new service products and other types of technological innovations on firm growth measured as subsequent two-year employment growth. Results, based on median and robust regression methods for manufacturing firms, show that, on average, both the introduction of new goods and process innovations have a significant and positive impact on subsequent firm growth. In contrast, the introduction of new services does not, on average, have a significant impact on firm growth for both manufacturing and service firms. However, quantile regressions show that the introduction of new service products has a significant and positive impact on firm growth for high-growth service firms. Finally, in manufacturing, the introduction of product innovations has a positive impact on firm growth at both the lower and higher ends of distribution (i.e. for both high-growth and shrinking firms).     

THE ALLOCATION OF OECD DIRECT INVESTMENT BETWEEN CEECS: A DISCRETE CHOICE APPROACH

The choice of the location of foreign direct investment is a complex phenomenon, depending not only on host‐country characteristics, but also on host‐industry and specific source‐firm characteristics. To capture these different influences for foreign investment location decisions into 13 Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) over a twelve‐year period, this paper uses a Generalized Nested Logit (GNL) model with firm, industry, and country data. The novel empirical results show that the responsiveness of firms’ decisions regarding where to locate capital in CEECs to country‐level variables differs both across sectors and across firms of different sizes and profitability.     

A METHOD FOR IMPROVED CAPITAL MEASUREMENT BY COMBINING ACCOUNTS AND FIRM INVESTMENT DATA

We propose a new method for estimating capital stocks at the firm level by combining business accounts information and investment data. The method also produces capital estimates at the sector or industry level by summing individual firms' capital stocks and appropriately inflating this sum to account for firms not included in the data set. Our approach has two major advantages compared with the much used Perpetual Inventory Method (PIM). First, long investment series are not necessary. Second, sector capital estimates are automatically adjusted for changes in the capital stock because of entry and exit of firms. While capital growth rates in Norwegian manufacturing were only 1 percent on average during 1993–2004 according to national accounts figures, our method yields much higher growth rates of 5.5 percent on average.     

基于代工合约的企业“哑铃型”经营模式

利用联合决策的博弈模型,针对是否存在信息泄漏,分两种情况对代工合约进行分析。结果发现:在存在信息泄漏的情况下,代工企业的"敲竹杠"行为会使品牌企业与代工企业无法建立长期、稳定的代工关系,此时品牌企业若采取"哑铃型"经营模式可能会出现经营失败。最后,从理论上阐明了建立长期、稳定的代工合约关系的条件,以及处于连续性生产行业的部分企业不能采用"哑铃型"经营模式的原因。     

Firm selection and industry evolution: the post-entry performance of new firms

A dynamic framework based on the process of firm selection and industry evolution is used to analyse the post-entry performance of new firms. In particular, it is hypothesized that, based on the stylized fact that virtually all new firms start at a very small scale of output, firm growth and survival are shaped by the need to attain an efficient level of output. The post-entry performance of more than 11,000 U.S. manufacturing firms established in 1976 is tracked throughout the subsequent tenyear period. Firm growth is found to be negatively influenced by firm size but positively related to the extent of scale economies, capital intensity, innovative activity, and market growth. By contrast, the likelihood of survival is identified as being positively influenced by firm size, market growth, and capital intensity, but negatively affected by the degree of scale economies in the industry. When viewed through the dynamic framework of firm selection and industry evolution, the empirical results shed considerable light on several paradoxes in the industrial organization literature, such as the continued persistence over time of an asymmetrical firm-size distribution consisting predominantely of suboptimal scale firms, and the failure of capital intensity and scale economies to substantially deter the entry and start-up of new firms.     

What are good R&D investment strategies for leaders and followers?

Research and development (R&D) investment affects the growth of firms in the same industry differently according to their technological positions. This study empirically investigates differences in how R&D investment influences firm growth between technological leaders and followers. Additionally, this study investigates the moderating effects of complementary assets and market competition on the relationship between R&D investment and firm growth. Using a sample of 2322 observations from 492 firms in the U.S. chemical and allied products industry for the period 2000–2009, we show that an increase in R&D investment leads to greater firm growth for technological followers than for technological leaders. We also find that the moderating effects of complementary assets and market competition vary depending on whether a firm is a technological leader or follower.