MONETARY VALUATION OF NON-MARKET PRODUCTIVE TIME METHODOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS

After defining households' productive time in non-SNA activities, the paper discusses the most lie quently used wage-based methods for imputing a value to this time. It argues that because the relation between market wages and household output is, at best, unknown, such valuations are not fruitful for economic analysis purposes. The paper then proceeds to show that it is possible to establish an output-related valuation of productive time which per se is relevant for economic analysis. Combined with time-use data, it can be used as a transitional measure for valuing household production at factors cost in a satellite account.     

气候变化对湖南省农业水旱灾害的影响研究方法探讨

随着全球气候变化的不断加剧,区域气温、降水、辐射等都发生了重大变化,其对农业发展也具有重要影响,研究气候变化对湖南农业水旱灾害的影响及适应性对策有利于减小灾害性天气及气候系统对湖南省农业的影响,适时找出适合湖南区域特点的应对措施,并进一步完善当前全球气候变化对农作物生长研究的不足。基于英国哈德莱气候中心的区域气候模式PRECIS系统的区域尺度气候情景模拟结果,借助于GIS技术运用EPIC和SWAT模型分别模拟未来不同气候情景下湖南水稻产量和水资源的变化,通过对过去50年气候变化及其对水稻模拟产量的影响研究,可以总结湖南省应对气候变化引发的水旱灾害的策略和方法,并进一步提出未来气候变化情景下的适应性对策,可以为政府和相关决策部门应对未来水旱灾害的适应性对策提供参考依据。     

控风险与稳增长挤压下的中国货币政策*

当前“名稳实紧”的货币政策已经不能适应我国宏观经济现状,货币政策总体思路亟待调整。过高的债务率所导致的债务-紧缩效应以及目前市场上所采取的“杠杆率硬着陆”的方式不仅加剧了金融市场的潜在系统性风险,而且还导致货币政策陷入传导困境。金融市场上财务软约束、刚性兑付现象大量存在,抬高了无风险利率,而且导致市场丧失风险定价功能。基于上述分析,我们认为当前货币政策取向应该从“名稳实紧”调整为“适度宽松”。在“杠杆率软着陆”的思路下,通过创新货币政策目标,配合市场化改革,尝试探索新型货币政策工具并结合市场监管体系的完善,早日实现经济复苏。     

BACKGROUND RISK AND THE THEORY OF THE COMPETITIVE FIRM UNDER UNCERTAINTY*

This paper examines the optimal production decision of a firm under output price risk á la Sandmo when the firm also faces a dependent background risk. It is shown that standard risk aversion plus a non-negative association between the output price risk and the background risk are sufficient to ensure a reduction in the firms optimal output upon introduction of the background risk. The paper investigates the impact of a deterministic transformation of the background risk on the firms optimal production decision. It is shown that decreasing absolute risk aversion in Ross' sense is among the sufficient conditions that generate an unambiguous negative comparative static result.     

PRICE‐LEVEL DETERMINATION UNDER DISPERSED INFORMATION AND MONETARY POLICY*

This paper considers the determination of aggregate price level under dispersed information. A Central Bank sets policy in response to its noisy measure of the price level, and each agent makes its decisions by observing a subset of data. Information revealed to the agents and the bank is determined endogenously. It is shown that the aggregate state of the economy is not revealed perfectly to anybody but this economy behaves as if it is a representative‐agent economy in which the representative agent has perfect information while the Bank has partial information. The Bank's information set affects fluctuations in the price level through its effect on policy.     

A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY RESEARCH

After more than a decade of scientific warning, the policy community has begun to take up the challenge of global climate change. This paper considers recent efforts to analyze policymaking in this area. Shortcomings in present policy research include: (i) inconsistencies in data and methods, (ii) myopic vision of available options, (Hi) overly anthropocentric cost/benefit assessments, (iv) inadequate treatment of uncertainly and irreversibility, (v) lack of recognition of developing and developed countries' differential motives, (vi) unsatisfactory presentation and interpretation of results, and (vii) limited peer review.     

渐进资本开放下中国货币政策的独立性

对中国资本流动程度和中国货币政策独立性的回归检验结果表明:中国的经济实践是符合不可能三角命题的。在1980—2003年间,在事实上钉住美元的固定汇率制度下,中国实行着较为严格的资本管制政策和享有独立的货币政策,但货币政策主要依赖于数量调控工具,汇率和利率的价格调控微乎其微,货币政策的独立性受到极大的挑战。     

开放经济条件下货币政策分析框架的选择

作为封闭经济条件下IS-LM模型和IS-LM-AS模型在开放经济中的拓展,M-F模型和M-F-D模型成为20世纪60—90年代开放经济宏观经济分析的工作母机。在研究开放经济中的货币问题时,M-F和M-F-D模型由于其简单明了、易于处理等优点,仍然是优先的分析工具选择。而作为M-F和M-F-D模型的新近发展,新开放经济宏观经济学框架在目前来说还难以运用于转型经济的货币政策研究。     

THE CYCLICAL EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY REGIMES*

A 1979 change in U.S. monetary policy coincided with a break in the cyclical behavior of monetary aggregates, while the cyclical behavior of all other real and nominal variables remained relatively constant. A model is developed to assess the quantitative importance of a change in monetary policy in accounting for these observations. The monetary authority's reaction function is estimated conditionally on the theoretical model and accounts for upward of 72–95% of all observed changes, including inside money preceding the business cycle and a qualitative change in the cyclical behavior of the monetary base.     

THE CARE AND HANDLING OF MONETARY AUTHORITIES*

Sometimes a group of people want to hire some agent (a monetary authority, for instance) to force them to cooperate with one another. This can cause problems, not only of the standard principal-agent type, but also of inconsistency, which appears here as renegotiation. The group faces a conflict between controlling the agent – the agency problem – and controlling themselves – the inconsistency problem. Terms of office are a good way to resolve this problem, and in fact, for people patient enough, the renegotiation problem disappears. This model provides insights into why the public dislikes inflation, why the market for presidents does not clear in Walrasian fashion, and why the controversy about “rules versus discretion” provides no policy guidance.     

利率市场化视角下的货币政策风险承担渠道问题研究*

利率市场化进程的深入可能会对我国货币政策传导、金融稳定等产生不可忽视的影响。基于此,本文研究了利率市场化对货币政策风险承担渠道的影响。结果表明：（1）我国存在货币政策风险承担渠道,且从利率市场化间接度量的维度来看,在考虑以直接效应来衡量的贷款利率市场化之后,银行的实际风险承担水平上升;但是在考虑以价格约束效应来衡量的存款利率市场化之后,其效果并不明显。（2）从利率市场化直接度量的方法来看,直接引入虚拟变量的研究发现贷款利率市场化会使得货币政策对银行风险承担水平的影响变得明显;进一步从利率市场化综合度量的维度,引入整体的利率市场化指数的方法则发现,随着利率市场化进程的深入,银行的实际风险承担水平会上升。（3）利率市场化对货币政策风险承担渠道的影响在不同类型银行间存在差异。     

TREASURY NOTE AND BANK BILL RATES, THE RISK PREMIUM AND AUSTRALIAN MONETARY POLICY*

This paper examines a link in the Australian monetary transmission mechanism based on the risk structure of certain interest rates. Monthly data on the bank-accepted bill and Treasury note rates reveal a significant reduction in both the mean and variance of the risk premium linking the two rates towards the end of 1989. The two interest rates cointegrate in each of the periods January 1984 to September 1989 and October 1989 to December 1995, though less significantly so in the earlier period, and formal tests indicate that the risk premium was stationary for each of the sub-periods. Well defined error-correction mechanisms suggest that the burden of adjustment to shocks to the money market was shared by the two interest rates. A stationary risk premium, combined with evidence that the Treasury note rate Granger-caused the bank bill rate in both sub-periods, indicates that the Reserve Bank has been able to influence the bill rate by targeting the note rate.     

流动性过剩背景下货币政策工具的特点及政策选择

在双顺差快速增长的背景下,数量型货币政策工具的紧缩效果在较短时间内即被外汇占款增长所抵消。名义利率调整滞后于价格水平上涨导致真实利率下降,在一定程度上进一步抵消了货币当局通过数量工具收缩流动性的效果。在宏观经济存在潜在过热风险的情况下,货币政策可依据泰勒规则加强对名义利率的调整,避免宏观经济的过度波动。     

不同生育率情形下养老保险筹资模式比较研究

理论研究普遍认为,基金制养老保险筹资模式优于现收现付制,但这几乎都是基于人均资本视角的判断。本文在外生和内生生育率两种情形下,从福利经济学视角分析基金制是否完全优于现收现付制。理论模型表明,在一定参数组合下,无论外生生育率还是内生生育率,都存在使现收现付制下社会福利高于基金制下社会福利的养老保险缴费率。模型的数值模拟显示,存在使现收现付制下社会福利更高的养老保险缴费率,且在外生生育率下（符合我国生育政策）现收现付制缴费率在12%左右社会福利最高,内生生育率下（符合发达国家生育政策）现收现付制缴费率在6%左右社会福利最高。前一数值与已有研究成果观点相近(我国社会统筹部分缴费率应下降到15%左右),后一数值与美国（62%）、日本（77%）等发达国家现收现付制养老保险缴费率相近。稳健性检验显示,只要参数赋值在合理范围内,数值模拟主要结论不变。本文为降低现行我国社会统筹部分养老保险缴费率提供了理论借鉴。     

THE TRANSMISSION OF MONETARY POLICY IN A MULTISECTOR ECONOMY*

This article constructs and estimates a sticky‐price, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with heterogeneous production sectors. Firms in different sectors vary in their price rigidity, production technology, and the combination of material and investment inputs. In particular, firms buy inputs from all sectors using the actual Input–Output Matrix and Capital Flow Table of the U.S. economy. By relaxing the standard assumption of symmetry, this model allows idiosyncratic sectoral dynamics in response to monetary policy shocks. The model is estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments using sectoral and aggregate U.S. time series.