Indirect inference and calibration of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models

We advocate in this paper the use of a sequential partial indirect inference (SPII) approach, in order to account for calibration practice where dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DGSE) are studied only through their ability to reproduce some well-chosen moments. We stress that, despite a lack of statistical formalization, the controversial calibration methodology addresses a genuine issue on the consequences of misspecification in highly nonlinear and dynamic structural macro-models. We argue that a well-driven SPII strategy might be seen as a rigorous calibrationnist approach, that captures both the advantages of this approach (accounting for structural “a-statistical” ideas) and of the inferential approach (precise appraisal of loss functions and conditions of validity). This methodology should be useful for the empirical assessment of structural models such as those stemming from the real business cycle theory or the asset pricing literature.     

Convergence of Bayesian learning to general equilibrium in mis-specified models

A central unanswered question in economic theory is that of price formation in disequilibrium. This paper lays the groundwork for a model that has been suggested as an answer to this question in, particularly, Arrow [Toward a theory of price adjustment, in: M. Abramovitz, et al. (Ed.), The Allocation of Economic Resources, Stanford University Press, Stanford, 1959], Fisher [Disequilibrium Foundations of Equilibrium Economics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983] and Hahn [Information dynamics and equilibrium, in: F. Hahn (Ed.), The Economics of Missing Markets, Information, and Games, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1989]. We consider sellers that monopolistically compete in prices but have incomplete information about the structure of the market they face. They each entertain a simple demand conjecture in which sales are perceived to depend on the own price only, and set prices to maximize expected profits. Prior beliefs on the parameters of conjectured demand are updated into posterior beliefs upon each observation of sales at proposed prices, using Bayes’ rule. The rational learning process, thus, constructed drives the price dynamics of the model. Its properties are analysed. Moreover, a sufficient condition is provided, relating objectively possible events and subjective beliefs, under which the price process is globally stable on a conjectural equilibrium for almost all objectively possible developments of history.     

An optimistic search equilibrium

We study a market search equilibrium with aggregate uncertainty, private information and heterogeneous beliefs that are initially optimistic. Despite these biased beliefs, it is shown that all optimistic equilibria converge to perfect competition in the limit as the time between matches tends to 0.     

Testable implications of general equilibrium models: An integer programming approach

Focusing on the testable revealed preference restrictions on the equilibrium manifold, we show that the rationalizability problem is NP-complete. Subsequently, we present a mixed integer programming (MIP) approach to characterize the testable implications of general equilibrium models. Attractively, this MIP approach naturally applies to settings with any number of observations and any number of agents. This is in contrast with existing approaches in the literature. We also demonstrate the versatility of our MIP approach in terms of dealing with alternative types of assignable information. Finally, we illustrate our methodology on a data set drawn from the US economy. In this application, an important focus is on the discriminatory power of the rationalizability tests under study.     

Urban search models under high-relocation costs. Theory and application to spatial mismatch

We develop a search-matching model in which mobility costs are so high that it is too costly for workers to relocate when a change in their employment status occurs. We show that, in equilibrium, wages increase with distance to jobs and commuting costs because firms need to compensate the transportation cost difference between the employed and unemployed workers at each location in the city. We also show that the equilibrium land rent is negatively affected by the unemployment benefit because an increase in the latter induce firms to create less jobs, which, in turn, reduces the competition in the land market. We then use this model to provide a mechanism for the observed spatial mismatch between where black workers live and where jobs are. We finally show that a transportation policy consisting in subsidizing the commuting costs of black workers can increase job creation and reduce unemployment if the level of the subsidy is set at a sufficiently high level.     

Risk premia in general equilibrium

This paper shows that non-linearities from a neoclassical production function alone can generate time-varying, asymmetric risk premia and predictability over the business cycle. These empirical key features become relevant when we allow for non-normalities in the form of rare disasters. We employ analytical solutions of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, including a novel solution with endogenous labor supply, to obtain closed-form expressions for the risk premium in production economies. In contrast to an endowment economy with constant investment opportunities, the curvature of the consumption function affects the risk premium in production economies through controlling the individual's effective risk aversion.     

Inequity-averse preferences in general equilibrium

We study the stability with respect to the introduction of opportunity-based inequity aversion à la Dufwenberg et al. (2011) of three welfare properties satisfied by competitive equilibria in self-regarding economies: (i) Pareto efficiency may not be a stable property; (ii) undomination with respect to income redistribution is a stable property whenever the marginal indirect utility of income has no extreme variations; and (iii) generically (endowment-wise) market-constrained efficiency is a stable property.     

On-the-job search equilibrium with endogenous unemployment benefits

This paper develops an on-the-job search model with wage posting where unemployment benefits are proportional to past wages. We emphasize that this contributes to increasing the reservation wages of unemployed workers and introduces a feedback effect of the distribution of wages on the distribution of unemployment benefits. We show that the model predictions are consistent with some stylized French facts and quantify the impact of inefficient rejections of low-wage offers by the unemployed. We find that, by reducing the indexing of unemployment benefits to previous earnings and increasing lump-sum transfers, it is possible to increase both employment and welfare.     

Different algorithms,different models

Quality & Quantity - This study assesses the extent to which the two main Configurational Comparative Methods (CCMs), i.e. Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and...     

Spatial models of secession-proofness and equilibrium size

This paper examines spatial models of secession-proofness and equilibrium size which have been developed in the literature on secession. The goal of the paper is to assess whether these models are sufficiently sensitive to the dynamics of secession. Do these models sufficiently allow for a difference between ex ante and ex post incentives and choices which might be strategically exploited by actors? Are these models sensitive to the endogenous dynamics of relations between state agents and secessionists?     

Amenities in an urban general equilibrium model

This paper has presented a general equilibrium Tiebout-median voter model. The model was solved numerically for prices and distributions of consumers which correspond to equilibria, and the results of the numerical solution of the model were used to evaluate the HES and Yinger Propositions. That complete capitalization always occurs means that the HES Proposition is false; Yinger's Proposition is misdirected since complete capitalization occurs regardless of the presence or absence of amenities (although amenities affect the equilibrium solutions). We have argued that capitalization is never appropriately measured by price differentials in a general equilibrium model.     

The current non-status of general equilibrium theory

This paper argues that the abandonment of general equilibrium theory by microeconomists was a mistake. It provides counter arguments to two of the reasons for that abandonment—lack of both generality and consistency with methodological individualism in uniqueness and stability analysis of equilibria—and urges microeconomists to refocus some of their attention on it.     

The general equilibrium effects of congestion externalities

This is the second in a series of three articles on the topic of congestion externalities. We use an urban general-equilibrium model to compute two types of cities: the market-equilibrium city, in which congestion externalities occur, and the optimum city. The optimum city has a more dispersed distribution of employment, and a more concentrated distribution of residence. If the population of the city is fixed, the optimum pricing of transportation generates a per capita welfare gain of $3.78 per week. If the population of the city is endogenous, the internalization of congestion externalities causes the city to grow.     

Endogenous restricted participation in general financial equilibrium

We consider an incomplete market model with numeraire assets. Each household faces an individual constraint on its participation in the asset market. In related literature, the constraint is described by a function whose sole argument is the asset portfolio. On the contrary, in our analysis the constraint depends not only on the asset portfolio, but also on asset and good prices—hence the reference to endogenous (in contrast to exogenous) in the title.     

A dynamic equilibrium model of search, production, and exchange

We study a general equilibrium model where agents search for production and trading opportunities, that generalizes the existing literature by considering a large number of differentiated commodities and agents with idiosyncratic tastes. Thus, agents must choose nontrivial exchange as well as production strategies. We consider decreasing, constant, and increasing returns to scale in the matching technology, and characterize the circumstances under which there exist multiple steady state equilibria, or multiple dynamic equilibria for given initial conditions. We also characterize the existence of dynamic equilibria that are limit cycles. Equilibria are not generally optimal, and when multiple equilibria coexist they may be ranked. We analyze comparative statics and find that certain intuitive results do not necessarily hold without restrictions on the stochastic structure.     

News shocks and asset price volatility in general equilibrium

We study equity price volatility in general equilibrium with news shocks about future productivity and monetary policy. As West (1988) shows, in a partial equilibrium present discounted value model, news about the future cash flow reduces asset price volatility. We show that introducing news shocks in a canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model may not reduce asset price volatility under plausible parameter assumptions. This is because, in general equilibrium, the asset cash flow itself may be affected by the introduction of news shocks. In addition, we show that neglecting to account for policy news shocks (e.g., policy announcements) can potentially bias empirical estimates of the impact of monetary policy shocks on asset prices.     

Instability and fluctuations in intertemporal equilibrium models: Presentation

This paper introduces the special issue of the Journal of Mathematical Economics on Instability and Fluctuations in Intertemporal Equilibrium Models.     

Environmental quality standards: A general equilibrium analysis

The increasing importance of pollution controls as a part of government regulatory activities has motivated considerable concern about the economic impact of these activities. This question is of considerable importance, because environmental quality goals are sometimes in conflict with other objectives such as full employment and economic growth. Policy-makers are thus faced with the task of identifying and measuring the trade-offs between these various objectives. But the measurement of these objectives requires information on their economic impacts. This paper develops a general equilibrium model with pollution specifications which can be used to identify the economic impacts of pollution-control policies. The particular pollution-control policy addressed is an environmental standards approach. The model is based on a technique that combines an explicit representation of consumer demand behaviour vis-à-vis linear aggregate demand functions with activity analysis.     

A computational general equilibrium model with vintage capital

This paper presents a vintage capital model assuming putty–clay investment and perfect foresight. The model is written in discrete time and is simulated by using a second order relaxation algorithm. By computing the eigenvalues of the dynamic system, we have checked the conditions of existence and uniqueness of a solution (Blanchard and Kahn's conditions) and identified the echo effect that characterizes vintage capital models and the related dynamics of creation and destruction. By calibrating the model on French data, it has been proved useful to explain the medium-term movements in the distribution of income in France during the last three decades.     

Commitment, advertising and efficiency of two-sided investment in competitive search equilibrium

Competitive search entails both commitment to and advertising of pay-off relevant aspects of market participants. This paper considers incrementally the implications of each in a labor market where both workers and firms invest prior to market entry. A wide range of institutional arrangements are addressed within the same general framework. When the characteristics of jobs or workers are advertised the efficient outcome pertains. Commitment without advertising typically leads to market unravelling: the Diamond paradox. But, whenever wages and human capital are advertised, firms become residual claimants; the private and social returns to investment coincide. Absent wage commitment, the Hosios condition implies efficiency when investments are advertised.