人口红利、制度红利与中国经济增长

中国在人口结构转变过程中充分利用人口红利实现了经济的高速增长。2010年,中国人口红利开始逐渐消失,经济增长逐渐转变为中高速增长,面临未富先老的现实国情。为此,政府应该吸取日本在人口红利消失后采取错误政策措施导致出现\"失去的20年\"的教训,正确认识中国在人口红利消失后,应该从人口红利转向制度红利方式,通过改革提升制度质量、创造有力制度条件、挖掘第二次人口红利、提高潜在经济增长率等,促进中国经济不断发展。     

人口结构转变、人口红利与经济增长——基于中日两国的比较

人口红利是人口结构变迁与经济增长关系研究的深入和发展。目前,日本的人口结构转变经历了第一次人口红利和第二次人口红利发展阶段,少子高龄化呈现愈发严重的态势。人口结构的这种转变对日本劳动力供给、储蓄、消费及社会保障制度产生了较大影响,一定程度上阻碍了日本经济增长。中国人口结构转变和经济增长模式与日本极为相似,通过对比分析中日人口结构转变、人口红利与经济发展阶段历程,借鉴日本人口结构转变中人口红利期的经验,吸取其教训,采取转变经济增长方式、放开生育限制、完善社会保障制度、加大人力资本投资、积极发展老龄产业等符合中国实际的应对人口老龄化的政策措施。     

FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION IN SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA: WHAT DO WE KNOW?

Abstract Beginning from the early 1980s countries in Sub‐Saharan Africa embarked on financial liberalization policies with a view to reversing the ill‐effects of financial repression. This paper provides a survey of financial liberalization in Sub‐Saharan African countries over the period 1980 to 2004. Our review of empirical studies showed that financial liberalization has had diverse and contrasting effects on savings, investment and economic growth. Most studies found a significant positive effect of financial liberalization on investment whereas its effect on savings has been largely insignificant. The evidence on the effect on economic growth is inconclusive as different studies find contrasting results. It is found that financial liberalization policies have not had the desired and expected results as both financial and macroeconomic variables have not improved following financial liberalization in these countries. This calls for a rethinking of financial liberalization in Sub‐Saharan African countries. It is important that financial liberalization is carried out in a stable macroeconomic environment. In addition to this, there should be a building and reform of institutions and the strengthening of prudential regulation. Following this, financial liberalization can be embarked upon but it must be properly sequenced and not rushed.     

试析我国经济增长衰减的负面影响

随着国内外经济发展环境的变化,我国经济增长速度也出现了新的趋势,由于支撑经济增长的诸要素转变,我国经济增长呈现衰减的现象,如果这种趋势持续下去,将会影响我国的经济社会的发展进程,导致宏观调控的难度加大,因此,必须加以重视。从根本上分析我国经济增长衰减的原因,包括:出口增长放缓、投资拉动遭遇瓶颈、消费动力明显不足,消费增速降幅、城市化进程减速、人口红利趋减等,主要阐述我国经济增长衰减的负面影响。     

预期寿命、人口红利与居民储蓄

通过分析两次人口红利与高储蓄之间的内在联系,运用引入代际因子的OLG模型进行定性判断,采用固定效应、随机效应及面板门槛模型进行实证分析,研究预期寿命、抚养比与居民储蓄率之间的关系。研究结果表明：预期寿命增加可以显著提升居民储蓄率;少儿抚养比的增加会显著降低居民储蓄率,而老年抚养比的增加可以促进居民储蓄率的提高;在不同的门槛内,少儿抚养比和老年抚养比的系数大小均发生了变化。由此得出“老龄化”与“少子化”对储蓄率的影响在经济发展水平不同的地区存在异质性的结论。     

Shrinking Cities,Shrinking Households,or Both?

Household size decline accounts for a substantial portion of population loss in shrinking cities, yet little research has focused on it. Much of the literature presents a simple growth/decline binary that is largely determined via population figures. In this paper, we highlight the importance and assess the impact of household size changes on population decline, and determine what types of household size declines are more acute in shrinking cities than other locales. We find that elderly households and households with school-aged children are under-represented in shrinking cities, while households with pre-school-aged children are over-represented. More tellingly, we find the biggest source of household-related loss in shrinking cities to be the growth of single-person households now living in houses that were once home to entire families. These findings puncture the binary on which much of the shrinking cities discourse is based. The population dynamics of most cities are subtler than either practitioners or critical scholars assert. We argue that plans and development strategies for shrinking cities should reflect a range of demographic changes, including outmigration and internal household restructuring.     

基于经济转型背景下的建筑企业发展战略研究

在以发展低碳经济、注重保障和改善民生为主要特征的经济转型背景下,建筑企业的发展面临节能减排压力增大、自主创新能力不足和资金瓶颈等问题。文章认为,建筑企业必须明确企业发展定位和发展模式;创新机制体制,提升企业的核心竞争能力;健全资金担保和融资制度,增强企业发展动力和切实维护好员工的合法权益。     

Cultural patterns influencing project team behavior in Sub‐Saharan Africa: A case study in Ethiopia

Despite the increasing attention paid to the human element of project success found in the project management literature, empirical studies exploring cultural patterns influencing this particular human element continue to be far from satisfactory. To help further understand the influence of cultural patterns within Sub‐Saharan Africa project environments, we draw on a case study conducted in Ethiopia's service sector. Apart from the well‐perceived cultural values commonly referred to in the existing literature, we specifically investigated the deep‐rooted underlying causes, which include Ethiopian cultural habits, as a principal factor in influencing project team behavior. The article concludes with implications and recommendations for future research.     

基于经济转型背景下的建筑企业发展战略研究

在以发展低碳经济、注重保障和改善民生为主要特征的经济转型背景下,建筑企业的发展面临节能减排压力增大、自主创新能力不足和资金瓶颈等问题。文章认为,建筑企业必须明确企业发展定位和发展模式;创新机制体制,提升企业的核心竞争能力;健全资金担保和融资制度,增强企业发展动力和切实维护好员工的合法权益。     

我国经济转型期物流技术的创新与发展

我国经济发展正面临重大转型时期.作为支撑国民经济发展的物流行业,需要进行物流技术创新以适应经济发展的要求.物流行业可以从整合发展水陆空多式联运技术、科学规划多功能仓储配送技术、构建和发展城市物流配送体系、创新和普及物联网技术实现智慧物流、运用射频识别技术实现物流收费一卡通等方面进行技术创新,加快提高我国物流业现代化水平,从而推动国民经济的高速发展.     

资源枯竭型城市经济转型中的文化问题

资源枯竭型城市的经济转型是一个世界性普遍关注的问题.本文从文化的角度入手,着重讨论了资源枯竭型城市在经济转型中存在的诸多文化问题,并设计了"纳克斯怪圈",以演示经济衰退和文化衰退之间所形成的恶性循环.然后探讨了文化建设与经济发展的关系.本文认为,资源枯竭型城市的经济转型,不仅是一个经济问题,也是一个文化问题,加强文化创新可以促进经济转型的顺利进行.     

人口出生率、年龄结构与金融发展

基于Basso等人研究的理论模型,并扩展解析了出生率对金融发展的作用机制,同时运用我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)2005-2016年的面板数据,实证研究了人口出生率、年龄结构对金融发展的影响。结果发现:(1)人口出生率、年龄结构对金融发展具有显著的负向作用,这一结论在改变因变量和其他控制变量,增加多种估计方法时仍然成立,符合\"老年安全假说\";(2)在我国计划生育政策控制较弱的地区,人口出生率、年龄结构则显著正向影响金融发展,这与该地区人力资本稀缺有关。因此,在推进我国金融改革与发展的过程中,商业银行应转变金融服务方式、增加产品供给和优化网点布局,以满足人口条件变动对金融服务的各类需求。     

Entrepreneurship in Extreme Environments: Building an Expanded Model

Interview and economic data from Kosovo are used to expand previous models of entrepreneurial factors and processes. Developing and building this expanded model in a conflict plagued, extreme environment calls attention to the complex role of policy makers in allocating resources and rewards, and demonstrates the importance of recipients using available resources wisely. Entrepreneurial activity was encouraged to create economic vitality in this war-torn region; however an absence of economic momentum (energy from the combination of mass and velocity), resource dormancy, and social irresponsibility present daunting barriers. Constrained into self-employment, entrepreneurs lack provisions and the ability to generate effective economic activity. While entrepreneurship was intended to replace antiquated, inefficient production systems, evidence indicates that foreign enterprises are more capable of satisfying market needs.     

南浔经济的三次转型与江南古镇发展道路

南浔是江南著名古镇.自南宋建镇以来,该镇迄今已经历了三次经济转型,即由传统农业经济到商品经济,由传统商品经济到近代外贸经济,以及现代市场和产业体系的构建,从而保持了持续发展的活力.南浔经济转型的历程及其经验教训,为当前江南古镇的发展提供了多方面的启示.