Illegal immigration: a supply side analysis

"This paper analyzes the supply-side determinants of illegal immigration using a three-sector general equilibrium model of the source country. Agricultural liberalization raises illegal immigration while liberalization of the high tech sector reduces it. In contrast, capital mobility in the source country renders trade policy ineffective for controlling illegal immigration. Paradoxically, increased enforcement (by the host country) may raise source country unskilled wages, although illegal immigration falls. Finally, under capital mobility, a rise in the source country restrictions on capital inflow raises the level of illegal immigration and reduces the effectiveness of border enforcement efforts by the host country."     

Is the skills mismatch important under skill-biased technological change and imperfect substitutability between immigrants and natives?

This paper contributes to the debate on the benefits and costs of immigration, by evaluating how the mismatch between educational attainment and occupations induced by immigration affects output per worker, the wage premium, and the economy's technological level in OECD host countries. To that end, we use an R&D growth model in which technological knowledge can be directed to either low- or high-skilled labour and thereby drives the dynamics of the key economic variables. There tends to be a significant economic impact of the skills mismatch due to immigration, which amplifies the effects of the mismatch in the native population. Nevertheless, countries with a higher contribution of immigration to the skills mismatch are not necessarily those with the higher contribution in terms of economic effects. Moreover, the size and sign of the latter may vary depending on the assessed economic indicator and from country to country. Cross-country differences regarding the initial level of the high-to low-skilled ratio and the size of its shift due to immigration play a crucial role.     

The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential

This paper analyzes the determinants of immigration flows to Germany in a time series-cross section framework. The reduced form of a well established theoretical model is estimated for a sample of 17 sending countries and a period covering 1960 to 1994. The estimates are then used to perform out-of-sample forecasts to assess the immigration potential from the Eastern European accession candidates to Germany. These scenarios predict a moderate increase in immigration to Germany, especially for the first round accession candidates. First version received: July 1999/Final version received: July 2000     

Misallocation of talent,teachers’ human capital,and development in Brazil

In this study, we investigate the allocation of talent in an economy where teachers play a critical role in developing the human capital of the workforce. To this end, we formulate a Roy model with externality in the occupational choice, as the quantity and quality of teachers are key determinants of workers’ human capital. Our analysis suggests that when individuals with greater abilities opt for teaching careers, the entire workforce benefits. However, frictions in the labor and educational goods markets may lead to a suboptimal allocation of talent and hinder economic growth and development. Our model is calibrated to the Brazilian economy, and our findings reveal a negative correlation between frictions in the teacher’s occupation and per capita output in the Brazilian states. Our results indicate that eliminating friction in the labor market could result in a 16.94% increase in Brazilian income.     

The transferability of human capital: some empirical evidence for West Germany

One of the most important topics in the current debate on immigration policy is whether receiving countries should make immigration conditional upon the achievement of formal education by the would-be immigrant in the source country. The answer to this question depends, among other factors, on the transferability of schooling and professional education from the sending to the receiving region. The paper uses German household data of 1978, 1982 and 1989 to evaluate to what extent formal education acquired by the main immigrant groups (Italians, Yugoslavs, Turks) in their countries of origin leads to earnings advantages in Germany. Consistent with earlier research, an assimilation effect is found. The results also show that schooling and professional education lead to earnings advantages. However, income differences between the three immigrant groups can only partially be explained by differences in schooling and professional education. It is found that nonobservable characteristics such as motivation, talent and the dynamics of the migratory chain also play a major role. The results indicate that Germany and other European receiving countries could, in theory, increase their welfare by integrating qualitative restrictions along educational characteristics in their immigration policies. The size of the increase, however, would be limited because of the importance of nonobservable characteristics and declining transferability of human capital as the source composition of immigrants shifts towards less developed countries.     

Immigrant earnings: age at immigration matters

A correlation between age at immigration and earnings is observed in Canadian census data. The evidence supports three underlying sources of the effect; first, work experience in the source country yields virtually no return in the host country; second, the return to education varies with age at immigration, and, finally, an 'acculturation' effect is observed for immigrants who are visible minorities or whose mother tongue is not English. Further, it is found that educational attainment, and relatedly earnings, vary systematically across age at immigration with those arriving around age 15 to 18 obtaining fewer years of education. JEL Classification: J61, J31     

Auctioning Immigration Visas

Freeman (2006 ) suggested that auctioning immigration visas and redistributing the revenue to native residents in the host country would increase migration from low-income to high-income countries. The effect of the auctioning of immigration visas, in the Ricardian model from Findlay (1982 ), on the optimal level of immigration for the host country is considered. It is shown that auctioning immigration visas will lead to a positive level of immigration only if the initial wage difference between the host country and the source country is substantial. The cost of the immigration visa is more than half the earnings of the immigrant worker.     

Selection and network effects—Migration flows into OECD countries 1990-2000

This paper presents empirical evidence on immigration flows into the OECD countries during the period 1990-2000. Our results indicate that network effects are strong, but vary between different groups of welfare states and between countries according to the type of immigration policy being applied. Network effects seem to be less important in the Nordic countries which also seem to attract immigrants from the lowest income level source countries. We do not find clear evidence that selection effects measured by migration flows being sensitive to differences in public social expenditures have had a major influence on the observed migration patterns until now. This may partly be explained by restrictive migration policies which may have dampened the potential selection effects.     

Could immigration explain wage inequality in a skill-biased technological model?

The aim of this paper is to evaluate how immigration of high-skilled workers affects the technological-knowledge bias and, in turn, the skill premium in the host countries, in particular bearing in mind the recent experience in a number of European countries. We study a skill-biased dynamic general equilibrium R&D growth model in which the standard R&D technology is modified so wage inequality results from the direction of the technological knowledge, which in turn is induced by the price channel. By solving the transitional dynamics numerically, we show that the rise of the skill premium arises from the price-channel effect, complemented with a mechanism that reflects the impact of immigration on R&D. According to our quantitative results, our model is able to account for a significant proportion of the dynamics of the skill premium in the data for a number of European countries, thus, suggesting that differences in labour skills between immigrants and natives are, in practice, an important source of skill premium variation over time.     

Immigration and economic growth: do origin and destination matter?

This article assesses the heterogeneous effects of immigration on economic growth depending on both the origin and the destination countries. Following the development of a growth model augmented by human capital of immigrants, we estimate it in a dynamic panel setup using the system-GMM estimator. We find that the growth-enhancing effect of immigration is significantly larger when immigration flows from developed to developing economies than when it does to those that include both developed and developing economies. We interpret these results as evidence of immigrants from developed countries bringing with them their advanced knowledge into the developing countries.     

What a Difference Immigration Policy Makes: A Comparison of PISA Scores in Europe and Traditional Countries of Immigration

Abstract. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the importance of different immigration policies associated with corresponding migration backgrounds, command of national languages and intergenerational mobility, for the PISA school performance of teenagers living in European countries (France, Finland, Germany, United Kingdom and Sweden) and traditional countries of immigration (Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the US). Econometric results show that the influence of the socioeconomic background of parents differs strongly across nations, with the highest impact found for Germany, the UK and US, whereas intergenerational transmission of educational attainment is less likely in Scandinavian countries and in Canada. Moreover, for all countries our estimations imply that for students with a migration background a key for catching up is the language spoken at home. We conclude that educational policy should focus on integration of immigrant children in schools and preschools, with particular emphasis on language skills at the early stage of childhood.     

Attitudes Towards Immigration: a Trade-Theoretic Approach

The paper uses a three-factor (capital, low- and high-skill labor), two-household (low- and high-skill individuals), two-sector trade model to analyze the determinants of voter attitudes towards immigration under direct democracy, and to identify factors that would be coherent with both the observed increase in the skilled–unskilled wage differential and the stiffening attitudes towards low-skill capital-poor immigration. If the import-competing sector is intensive in the use of low-skill labor, and capital is the middle factor, an improvement in the terms of trade or neutral technical progress in the exporting sector leads nationals to oppose immigration of capital-poor low-skill households. An increase in income inequality is also likely to stiffen attitudes towards this type of capital-poor, low-skill immigration prevalent in Europe until recently.     

Gender Empowerment and Educational Attainment of US Immigrants and Their Home-Country Counterparts

This paper examines the educational self-selection of immigrants to the United States across forty-two countries of origin and analyzes determinants of selectivity, including home-country gender status (as measured by the United Nations’ Gender Empowerment Measure [GEM]). Measuring educational self-selection, the study uses data from the 2006 American Community Survey and the 2000 and 2014 Barro–Lee Educational Attainment Measure to construct the Net Difference Index between immigrants and nonmigrants. It compares the educational attainment difference between immigrants and nonmigrants who remain in the home country and demonstrates that immigrants to the US are more educated than their home-country counterparts across all immigrant groups (positive selection). Regression results further indicate that higher gender inequality in the home country influences more highly educated women to migrate. The paper also confirms that higher migration costs and lower income inequality in the home country influence more highly educated individuals to migrate.     

The Welfare State versus the Common Labor Market: Which to Dismantle?

Migration by low-income workers limits the ability of a countryto redistribute income, since more generous income supplementsattract additional workers into the country, reducing wagesand raising the cost of the program. This article studies therole of immigration controls, which allow the government toraise the real incomes of existing immigrants without causingadditional immigration. Paradoxically, immigration controlsmay lead to higher equilibrium levels of immigration in a commonlabor market, and those low-income individuals left behind inthe source countries may be better off. Simply stated, a hostcountry benefits more from immigrants when they are not impoverished,and immigration controls enable the country to eliminate impoverishment.Thus, the country is willing to increase the number of immigrantsthat it allows within its borders. After obtaining this insightfrom the basic model, the article discusses some extensionsand qualifications.     

Explaining educational attainment across countries and over time

Consider the following facts. In 1950, the richest countries attained an average of 8 years of schooling whereas the poorest countries 1.3 years, a large 6-fold difference. By 2005, the difference in schooling declined to 2-fold because schooling increased faster in poor than in rich countries. What explains educational attainment differences across countries and their evolution over time? We consider an otherwise standard model of schooling featuring non-homothetic preferences and a labor supply margin to assess the quantitative contribution of productivity and life expectancy in explaining educational attainment. A calibrated version of the model accounts for 90 percent of the difference in schooling levels in 1950 between rich and poor countries and 71 percent of the faster increase in schooling over time in poor relative to rich countries. These results suggest an alternative view of the determinants of low education in developing countries that is based on low productivity.     

A Model of Smuggling and Trafficking of Illegal Immigrants with a Host Country Policy

This paper deals with illegal immigration via two distinct activities—smuggling and trafficking of workers. A destination–source model determines economic pay‐offs and a standard labor market policy works as a deterrent. Tax paid by legal unskilled workers at the destination is determined endogenously and it finances inland monitoring against illegal immigration, holding the border patrol at a given level. The tax also finances unemployment benefit to legal workers at the destination. The number of immigrant smugglers and traffickers is also determined endogenously along with employer penalty and market wage for illegal immigrants. Higher unemployment benefits may reduce illegal wages, raise traffickers’ rent and reduce flow of illegal immigrants from the source countries.     

Is Foreign Direct Investment “Gender Blind”? Women's Rights as a Determinant of US FDI

The impact of women's rights on a country's competitiveness in the global economy is a source of contention. While educational opportunities for women, as well as political empowerment, are linked to a variety of positive outcomes, the impact of economic rights is mixed. Toward better understanding these issues, we focus on the role of women's rights in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). Though foreign capital plays a key role in the development strategies of many countries, and many of the growth areas in FDI rely heavily on women's labor, extant literature on the determinants of FDI largely ignores gender. To gain insight into these issues, we examine the impact of women's political, economic, and educational rights across four different types of US FDI into the developing world. We find a mixed relationship between women's rights and FDI that varies across industrial sectors.     

The impact of welfare benefits on natives' and immigrants' attitudes toward immigration

We investigate the effect of the relative welfare dependence of immigrants on attitudes toward further immigration of different groups of the population in a pooled cross-section of 24 European countries for the 2004–2010 period. Explicitly controlling for the dependence of immigrants and natives on welfare benefits we find that in countries with higher take-up rates among immigrants relative to natives pro-immigration attitudes, very robustly, increase more strongly with increasing educational attainment and, slightly less robustly, decline more strongly with the age of natives. Within the group of immigrants, by contrast, the impact of age on pro-immigration attitudes is more favorable with increasing relative benefit take-up of immigrants.     

A model of the skill composition of US immigration

A human capital model is specified to explain the skill composition of US immigration. A unique set of panel data (57 source countries and 15 annual observations) and a methodology not previously used to study a demographic phenomenon are employed to estimate the model. Coefficients on time-invariant variables are recovered by means of the Hausman - Taylor instrumental variable procedure, which yields considerably different results than the generalized least squares model.     

The changing skill of new immigrants to the United States: recent trends and their determinants

"The objective of this paper is to describe and understand the determinants of changes in the number and quality of new legal immigrants to the United States over the last 25 years. Our main interest is in understanding the behavioral response of potential immigrants to changes in the U.S. immigration law regime (as well as in the origin-country determinants of demand for immigration to the United States) and how these affect and have affected the skill composition of immigrants.... [The authors] assembled a new data set based on annual INS records of all new, legal immigrants over the period 1972 through 1995.... Inspection of our new data indicates that since the mid 1980s the average skill of new, U.S. legal immigrants has been rising relative to that of the U.S. population. An econometric analysis of a panel of country-specific measures of the skill of immigrants based on these data over the period 1972-1992 indicates that these changes are due in part to changes in immigration law and to the overall rise in the real purchasing power of countries outside the United States."