货币政策冲击、外汇干预与汇率变动的同期与动态关联研究

本文采用SVAR模型以及2005年7月至2011年12月的月度数据,研究了2005年的新汇率改革之后,我国货币政策冲击、外汇干预与汇率间的动态关联。主要发现与结论如下：在货币政策冲击、外汇干预与汇率三者的同期博弈中,外汇干预不能即刻影响同期汇率。利率的上升及广义货币供应量的变动均会对同期名义有效汇率造成一定影响,但不太显著。在三者的动态博弈中,外汇干预是非冲销和有效性得到验证,外汇干预信号的假设可以成立。此外,即使利率的变动并不针对汇率,却带来汇率的大幅波动。名义有效汇率的上升可以有效抑制消费价格指数（CPI）的提高,并且数量型货币政策容易造成CPI的反弹。本文针对研究结论提出了一些政策建议。     

PERSISTENT EFFECTS OF TRANSITORY EXCHANGE RATE SHOCKS ON FIRM DYNAMICS

Recent evidence demonstrates that exchange rate movements can affect firm survival and entry. However, there is little evidence on whether there are asymmetric effects of an appreciation versus depreciation. This article uses firm‐level data over a period of a large currency appreciation followed by a large depreciation to examine possible asymmetries in firm survival and entry resulting in the endurance of exchange rate effects. We find that when real currency appreciations precede depreciations, appreciations reduce firm entry rates to a greater degree than depreciations increase that rate; but appreciations reduce the probability of firm survival at a magnitude not significantly different from the increase in probability that results from a depreciation. Taken together, we find that a 10% reciprocal episode of exchange rate appreciation and depreciation will result in 1,647 (5.2%) fewer firms compared with a regime with no change in the exchange rate. These results are consistent with exchange rate hysteresis whereby a transitory exchange rate shock has a permanent effect. (JEL F1)     

WAGE–PRICE DYNAMICS AND DEFLATION IN HONG KONG

Abstract. We provide empirical evidence on the dynamics of prices and wages in Hong Kong. The results suggest that the post‐1997 deflation can be understood using a conventional macroeconomic framework wherein foreign influences constitute the basic underlying shocks, and adjustment processes in domestic wages and prices determine the details of the transmission mechanism. We find that the decline in local nominal prices owes much to declining prices of imported intermediate goods. The negative output gap and increase in unemployment during the deflation period also have their origin in foreign shocks, but the domestic wage adjustment process is an important contributing factor.     

OIL PRICE SHOCKS AND STOCK MARKET BOOMS IN AN OIL EXPORTING COUNTRY

This paper analyses the effects of oil price shocks on stock returns in Norway, an oil-exporting country, highlighting the transmission channels of oil prices for macroeconomic behaviour. To capture the interaction between the different variables, stock returns are incorporated into a structural VAR model. I find that following a 10% increase in oil prices, stock returns increase by 2.5%, after which the effect gradually dies out. The results are robust to different (linear and non-linear) transformations of oil prices. The effects on the other variables are more modest. However, all variables indicate that the Norwegian economy responds to higher oil prices by increasing aggregate wealth and demand. The results also emphasize the role of other shocks; monetary policy shocks in particular, as important driving forces behind stock price variability in the short term.     

TOURISM,DUTCH DISEASE AND WELFARE IN AN OPEN DYNAMIC ECONOMY*

This paper examines the effects of an expansion in tourism on capital accumulation, sectoral output and resident welfare in an open economy with an externality in the traded good sector. An expansion of tourism increases the relative price of the nontraded good, improves the tertiary terms of trade and hence yields a gain in revenue. However, this increase in the relative price of nontraded goods results in a lowering of the demand for capital used in the traded sector. The subsequent de‐industrialization in the traded good sector may lower resident welfare. This result is supported by numerical simulations.     

HETEROGENEOUS DYNAMICS,AGGREGATION, AND THE PERSISTENCE OF ECONOMIC SHOCKS

Estimates of shock persistence based on disaggregate or on aggregate data are frequently very different. This article takes a step toward reconciling this apparent disconnect between micro‐ and macro‐based estimates of shock response. It is shown that, although the average of the individual impulse response functions (IRFs) is identical to the aggregate IRF, averages of other popular persistence measures, such as the sum of the autoregressive coefficients among others, tend to be larger the higher the aggregation level. The theoretical results are illustrated with two applications that use U.S. and European inflation data.     

THE SHADOW‐PRICE OF LABOUR AND EMPLOYMENT BENEFITS IN A DEVELOPING ECONOMY

The paper describes and analyses data obtained from a survey of the labour force of a tuna cannery in Papua New Guinea. Estimates of the value of employees’ work and travel time are obtained and used to calculate the shadow‐price of labour under alternative assumptions about the labour market and the economy. The shadow‐prices are used to calculate annual employment benefits to the indigenous labour force and to the economy as a whole. These benefits can amount to approximately half of the gross wage bill. Benefits by sex and skill category of worker are also reported. The results of the paper can be used to calculate employment benefits in other similar circumstances in other industries and countries.     

FERTILITY SHOCKS AND EQUILIBRIUM MARRIAGE‐RATE DYNAMICS

Female marriage probabilities were 50% higher in France in the years after World War 1, despite a large drop in the sex ratio. We develop a model of marital matching in which composition effects in the singles pool affect postdisruption matching rates. When calibrated to French data from World War 1, this mechanism explains 2/3 of the postwar rise in female marriage probabilities as the result of better composition of the pool of single men. We conclude that endogeneity issues make the sex ratio a potentially unreliable indicator of female marriage prospects.     

武陵源遗产地旅游产业集群的特征和演变

关于旅游产业集群的形成机制与演变规律的研究在目前国内外旅游产业集群研究中较为薄弱.选择世界自然遗产地--武陵源作为案例地,通过对历年旅游企业的动态变化、旅游发展的回顾分析,深入研究武陵源旅游产业集群形成和演变规律及内在机制,指出武陵源旅游产业集群的形成表现出很强的路径依赖的特征.最后总结了集群各发展阶段的特征和分析了今后的发展可能,认为制订基于集群的政策是武陵源旅游目的地下一步发展的关键.     

HOUSING PRICE AND FUNDAMENTALS IN A TRANSITION ECONOMY: THE CASE OF THE BEIJING MARKET

This article develops a dynamic rational expectations general equilibrium framework that links house value to fundamental economic variables such as income growth, demographics, migration, and land supply. Our framework handles nonstationary dynamics as well as structural changes in fundamentals that are commonplace in transition economies. Applying the framework to Beijing, we find that the equilibrium house price and rent under reasonable parameterizations of the model are substantially lower than the data. We explore potential explanations for the discrepancies between the model and the data.     

国外社区旅游规划的研究进展及其主要理念

文章在简要回顾国外社区旅游规划基本理念的发展历程的基础上,就社区旅游规划涉及到的具有代表性的主要理念进行阐述;在评述其发展过程的基础上,勾勒出国外社区旅游规划理论研究的基本趋势和主要理念,以期对中国社区旅游规划起到借鉴作用。     

THE EXCHANGE RATE IN THE JAPANESE ECONOMY: THE PAST,PUZZLES, AND PROSPECTS*

Selected topics in the literature on the exchange rate, in particular the yen, are reviewed from the viewpoint of some academic/practical puzzles. A survey is provided of past work covering use of the yen on PPP, covered and uncovered interest rate parity, the unbiasedness of expected future exchange rates, volatility spillover across borders and the effectiveness of intervention. The role of the yen in the international financial structure and its future role in global and regional financial markets are discussed.     

湖南长株潭地区红色旅游资源的开发与区域经济发展

红色旅游对湖南的长株潭地区经济发展起到了很大的作用,是其一体化的步骤之一.了解在长株潭开展红色旅游的意义,现状和存在的问题,可以更好地提出旅游对策,促进区域经济的健康、稳定发展.     

FIRM DYNAMICS IN AN URBAN ECONOMY *

We develop a new dynamic general equilibrium model to explain firm entry, exit, and relocation decisions in an urban economy with multiple locations and agglomeration externalities. We characterize the stationary distribution of firms that arises in equilibrium. We estimate the parameters of the model using a method of moments estimator. Using unique panel data collected by Dun and Bradstreet, we find that agglomeration externalities increase the productivity of firms by up to 8%. Economic policies that subsidize firm relocations to the central business district increase agglomeration externalities in that area. They also increase economic welfare in the economy.     

系统动力学原理和方法在旅游规划中的运用

旅游业中许多问题都涉及到动态和非线性的关系，给旅游规划带来相当大的影响，利用系统动力学有助于解决这些问题。文章通过对运用此方法的步骤和原则的介绍，探讨系统动力学在旅游规划中运用的理论意义和科学价值，并且以桂林旅游规划为实例加以说明。     

国际资本流动“突然停止”、消费平滑与最优外汇储备持有量*

通常认为外汇储备具有抵御外部冲击、平滑居民消费、增进社会福利的作用。循此逻辑,文章构建了三部门模型模拟了货币当局面临资本流动“突然停止”时,出于平滑消费目的的最优储备持有行为。研究发现：中国静态最优外汇储备量约占GDP的1926%;中国实际储备与最优储备的差额自2010年起稳定在18万亿美元;最优外汇储备量与“突然停止”发生概率及其导致的产出损失、短期外债规模、居民存款规模及危机时的资产置换比率、风险规避程度正相关,与银行备付金比率、国际风险溢价程度负相关;从危机应急的角度看,提高银行备付金比率、控制居民存款置换外币比例能有效节约外汇储备,但从长远来看控制国内短期外债规模、确保银行稳健运营才是应对国际资本“突然停止”风险的关键。