A large-scale test of the biorhythm-shoplifting connection hypothesis

The impact of shoplifting on retailers and on the public in general is significant. Stores lose revenue, local governments lose tax monies, and the public pays higher prices at the checkout counter, all because of the actions of individuals who shoplift. Because a large percentage of shoplifting is due to the actions of retail employees, an effort that would reduce losses due to employee theft could have a significant impact on the problem. Biorhythmic charting was hypothesized as providing a potential avenue through which the problem could be addressed. This study provides a large-scale test of the relationship between biorhythm criticality and shoplifting. A managerially useful relationship was not discerned. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Effects of alcohol warnings and advertisements: A test of the boomerang hypothesis

Two experiments examined the effects of warnings and advertisements on memory, intentions, and benefit and risk perceptions. The experiments were designed to replicate an important recent study (Snyder & Blood, 1992), where it was suggested that an alcohol warning may have a boomerang effect such that drinkers perceive alcohol as having more benefits when the warning is present. In Experiment 1, a planned comparison did not support the boomerang effect. A larger sample size was used in Experiment 2 to increase the statistical power to detect the boomerang effect, but the effect was not observed. In both experiments there was evidence that advertisements led to greater perceived benefits and lower perceived risks. There was some evidence that warnings increased perceived risk and reduced advertising effects on perceived benefits. Subjects' sex and alcohol use were often strongly related to the dependent measures. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Modeling CLV: A test of competing models in the insurance industry

Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is one of the key metrics in marketing and is considered an important segmentation base. This paper studies the capabilities of a range of models to predict CLV in the insurance industry. The simplest models can be constructed at the customer relationship level, i.e. aggregated across all services. The more complex models focus on the individual services, paying explicit attention to cross buying, but also retention. The models build on a plethora of approaches used in the existing literature and include a status quo model, a Tobit II model, univariate and multivariate choice models, and duration models. For all models, CLV for each customer is computed for a four-year time horizon. We find that the simple models perform well. The more complex models are expected to better capture the richness of relationship development. Surprisingly, this does not lead to substantially better CLV predictions.

服务业发展与宏观经济波动理论分析与实证检验

服务业发展与宏观经济波动关系密切,目前,对服务业发展能否缓和宏观经济波动还存在较大的理论分歧在定性分析前提下,采用1978-2008年中国的宏观经济和产业发展时间序列资料,用HP滤波法分析了服务业发展与宏观经济波动的关系,结果表明,中国服务业的增长波动性大于国民经济的波动性,服务业的相对波动性是国民经济的1.2258倍即服务业比重的提高,不仅不利于中国经济稳定,相反会加剧经济波动.     

Language influence in responses to questionnaires by bilingual respondents: A test of the Whorfian hypothesis

This paper examines how sub-cultural respondents differ in their perceptions and answers to questionnaire items tapping their acculturation and ethnic identity. A related objective is to examine how bilingual respondents exposed to an instrument in the source language perceive it compared to subjects exposed to the instrument in their native language. Prior studies find that respondents can answer differently according to the language of the questionnaire. The framework is based on the Whorfian hypothesis and the Revised Hierarchical Model. About 500 questionnaires are collected from Greek-Canadians residing in Eastern Canada. Findings indicate the presence of several non-invariant factor loadings and covariances, indicating that caution should be exercised when carrying out ethnic identity studies with respondents who are given the choice of the language of the questionnaire. Research on how differences between languages affect consumer information processing and cognitions can shed light on a new form of response style in cross-cultural research.     

Does the law and finance hypothesis pass the test of history?

For the body of work known as the law and finance literature, the development of financial markets and the concentration of ownership across countries is to a large extent the consequence of the legal system nations created or inherited decades or hundreds of years ago. Despite the seemingly historical nature of this explanation, most of the body of work supporting the law and finance hypothesis has been ahistorical. This paper summarises the business history literature and provides evidence on investor protection and financial development over the long run that challenges the main tenets of the law and finance literature.     

一种结合RSSI假设检验的防丢算法

随着外出活动交流的日益增多,人们对防丢的需求越来越大。低功耗蓝牙(BLE)的信号强度指示(RSSI)方法以其低功耗、低成本等优点,成为引人注目的备选方案。然而,蓝牙RSSI信号也存在不确定性、易受干扰等特点,为实际应用带来了挑战。鉴于此,提出了一种结合RSSI假设检验的防丢算法。首先,通过采集并分析大量RSSI序列样本发现,几乎所有的RSSI样本均符合正态分布;随后对动态采集的RSSI序列进行假设检验判别;紧接着,结合与之相应的状态机来动态判定蓝牙主机与从机的相对位置关系,并根据对应的位置关系确定是否安全。实验及评估结果表明,该算法能取得良好的防丢效果。     

An empirical test of the rent-shifting hypothesis: the case of state trading enterprises

A central result in the theoretical literature on strategic trade is the ‘rent-shifting hypothesis’, the idea that government’s can employ trade policy as a precommitment device to transfer profit from foreign to domestic firms. To our knowledge, however, the rent-shifting hypothesis remains untested empirically. This paper constructs a theory-based empirical test of rent-shifting behavior that relies on observations of government precommitment variables employed through State Trading Enterprises (STEs). The analysis applies data on the delayed producer payment structure of the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) and examines its merits as a rent-shifting mechanism in the international durum market. The model fails to reject the hypothesis that the CWB utilizes a pre-commitment mechanism in the international durum market and several nonparametric tests confirm that the observed transfer payments set by the CWB are consistent with rent-shifting behavior in the 1972-95 pre-WTO period.     

A fresh look at industry and market analysis

Today's strange, new business world needs an augmented model of industry and market analysis that reflects recent developments in industry dynamics, such as globalization, entrepreneurship, technological advances, and the Internet. Here we present such an updated model, built on and expanding the basic premises that underlie Porter's Five Competitive Forces Model. And we offer suggestions for how managers can position their businesses for success in the current competitive environment.     

医药行业基金的业绩分析

最近几年,A股市场行业差异明显,在结构性行情的背景下,凸显出行业基金的配置价值.股票型医药行业基金通过研究精选个股,使得业绩大幅领先于同类基金的平均水平.     

医药行业基金可投资性分析

近年来股票型医药行业基金的业绩大幅领先于同类基金的平均水平,具有投资价值。此外,医药行业未来前景向好,投资者可以选择长期持有该类基金。     

航空电子综合仿真试验中的多RT模拟器技术

本文简要地介绍了在航空电子系统综合化仿真试验中应用的2种多远程终端模拟器技术,并对其性能和应用前景进行了简要说明。     

Optimal infant industry protection during transition to World Trade Organization membership – A numerical analysis for the Vietnamese motorcycle industry

This paper proposes a framework to derive the optimal dynamic path of tariffs to protect infant industries when a country initiates a process to join the World Trade Organization (WTO). The framework is based on the model of Melitz (2005) in which externalities associated with dynamic learning-by-doing provide a rationale for infant industry protection. Unlike the original model, this paper assumes that there is a time limit for protection: after a fixed number of years, tariffs are required to be constant over time at a low level. This setup reflects the nature of the actual WTO agreement. This model is solved analytically to derive quantitative implications for the optimal tariff path, unlike in Melitz (2005), where only qualitative analyses are undertaken. An interesting result emerges: conventional wisdom is that a country in this situation should reduce the tariff rate gradually over time so that it converges to its long-run rate at the terminal date of protection. By contrast, this paper finds that, in some plausible scenarios, the optimal time path of the tariff can be upward sloping. A numerical analysis applied to the Vietnamese motorcycle industry, a typical infant industry in a country joining the WTO, confirms such a pattern.     

我国电信行业赢利模式的演变分析

随着信息技术的不断发展与经济全球化的推动作用,我国电信行业的赢利模式运步发生转化,正由完全垄断行业向服务型产业发展;由单一通讯业务向通讯集成、向互联网技术,向产业链上下游领域深度结合.但是随着社会的不断进步,对电信的工作要求也提出了新挑战,电信只有不断优化赢利模式,才能继续在激烈的市场竞争中占有一席之地.     

中国乙烯工业的市场分析

评述了中国近年乙烯产能和产量、消费量（表观和当量消费量），介绍了中国乙烯扩能前景和裂解原料供应，以及当前经济危机对中国乙烯工业的影响。