Labor‐market Volatility in Matching Models with Endogenous Separations*

The business‐cycle behavior of a matching model with endogenous separations is studied in this paper. We show that whether aggregate productivity shocks have a larger effect on the vacancy–unemployment ratio than in a model with exogenous separations depends on whether worker productivity stochastically increases with tenure. The difference in the response is quantitatively small, however. We also show that the cleansing effect introduced by allowing for endogenous separations can help in reconciling the model with observed fluctuations in the unemployment rate, but not with those in the vacancy rate.     

Labor search and matching in macroeconomics

The labor search and matching model plays a growing role in macroeconomic analysis. This paper provides a critical, selective survey of the literature. Four fundamental questions are explored: How are unemployment, job vacancies, and employment determined as equilibrium phenomena? What determines worker flows and transition rates from one labor market state to another? How are wages determined? What role do labor market dynamics play in explaining business cycles and growth? The survey describes the basic model, reviews its theoretical extensions, and discusses its empirical applications in macroeconomics.The model has been developed against the background of difficulties with the use of the neo-classical, frictionless model of the labor market in macroeconomics. Its success includes the modelling of labor market outcomes as equilibrium phenomena, the reasonable fit of the data, and—when inserted into business cycle models—improved performance of more general macroeconomic models. At the same time, there is evidence against the Nash solution used for wage setting and an active debate as to the ability of the model to account for some of the cyclical facts.     

我国创业板市场与中小板市场间的波动溢出效应研究

基于MVGARCH-BEKK模型对创业板市场与中小板市场间的波动溢出效应进行研究,研究结果表明：创业板市场存在波动的集聚性和持久性,中小板市场不存在波动的集聚性,但存在波动的持久性;创业板市场与中小板市场间存在波动溢出效应,但创业板市场对中小板市场的波动持久性影响显著,中小板市场对创业板市场的波动集聚性影响显著;创业板市场与中小板市场间的波动溢出效应程度均不大,但中小板市场对创业板市场的波动溢出效应程度要大于创业板市场对中小板市场的波动溢出效应程度,表明老市场向新兴市场的信息流动量较大。     

Survey Evidence on Wage Rigidity and Unemployment: Sweden in the 1990s*

We document the results of a repeat survey, which updates Agell and Lundborg (1995) , on wage rigidity in a sample of 159 Swedish manufacturing firms, conducted during the severe Swedish recession of the 1990s. It is found that not even a prolonged period of very high unemployment and quite low inflation softened workers’ resistance to wage cuts. We discuss possible reasons for this. In addition, we report new evidence on underbidding, efficiency‐wage mechanisms, and unemployment persistence.     

期货市场交易量与收益及波动关系的分位分析

采用分位数回归方法对上海期货市场铜、铝和燃料油期货收益及波动与成交量的动态关系进行实证研究。该方法允许估计不同分位的方程,从而得到条件分布的完整描述。结果显示上海期货市场期货价格收益具有异方差的特点;存在量价齐扬和量价背离现象;收益波动和成交量之间随着波动增大呈现逐渐加强的正向关系,从而说明我国期货市场信息传播符合混合分布假说。     

劳动力市场搜寻与匹配理论——2010年诺贝尔经济学奖得主的重要贡献

彼得.戴蒙德、戴尔.莫滕森和克里斯托弗.皮萨里德斯三人因在劳动力市场搜寻与匹配理论及其应用的突出贡献,共同获得2010年诺贝尔经济学奖。其中,戴蒙德通过提出著名的戴蒙德悖论,开创了劳动力市场搜寻与匹配理论框架;在此基础上,莫滕森认为,建立工资公告等匹配机制有助于劳动力市场博弈实现均衡,从而拓展了摩擦性失业相关理论研究;而皮萨里德斯则通过推动匹配函数与工资议价等的确立,进一步完成了劳动力市场搜寻与匹配理论的系统化过程。借鉴该理论,中国劳动力市场应做出提高信息传播效率、提高农村的信息水平、政府制定针对性相关政策等改进。     

Structural Changes in the Labor Market and the Rise of Early Retirement in France and Germany

The rise of early retirement in Europe is typically attributed to the European system of taxes and transfers. A model with an imperfectly competitive labor market allows us to consider also the effects of bargaining power and of matching efficiency on pre‐retirement. We find that lower bargaining power of workers and declining matching efficiency have been important determinants of early retirement in France and Germany. These structural changes, combined with early retirement transfers and population aging, are also consistent with the employment and unemployment rates, labor share and seniority premia.     

统筹城乡的基本养老保险个人账户基金市场化运营机制与模式

我国社保制度建设已步入"快车道",统筹城乡的基本养老保险个人账户基金市场化运营迫切、适时。文章梳理相关环境因素,构建基于微观主体分类的效用函数,通过一般均衡分析刻画出基本养老保险个人账户基金市场化运营的经济机制和经济效应,进而设置了"以中低收入群体福利为标的、采取城乡分离运营"的统筹城乡基本养老保险个人账户基金市场化运营模式,最后安排了补充的政策搭配。