THE DECISIONS OF THE SHADOW MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE AND MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE SINCE 2002: A REJOINDER

Koo, Paya and Peel make some very worthwhile points regarding the operation of the SMPC. Their analysis is interesting and helpful. However, the particular structure of the SMPC and the way it operates is, to some extent, determined by practicalities but also, more importantly, by the fact that it tries to operate as a discussion forum bringing together academics, bankers and financial experts rather than simply providing opinions on what the MPC should do.     

THE REGIONAL EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY: A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

This survey provides an updated review of the empirical literature on the regional effects of monetary policy in economic activity by means of undertaking a threefold perspective. First, the main methodological dimensions of this literature are examined while pinpointing those modelling or methodological traits that constitute a source of diverging estimates and thereby produce inconclusive evidence. Secondly, the estimates yielded by the literature are summarized by carrying out a cross‐study analysis of the results for each monetary union. By drawing on empirical regularities that are robust across studies, the conclusiveness of the results is assessed, while those monetary unions for which conclusive evidence is still lacking are also identified. Lastly, the sources of regional heterogeneity identified by these studies are reviewed in order to shed some light on the linkage between monetary policy and territorial heterogeneity. As a result of this threefold perspective, this survey delivers overall structured conclusions and updated policy‐relevant lessons. Moreover, various research gaps and emerging topics in the literature are also identified.     

MONETARY POLICY AND BEHAVIOURAL FINANCE

Abstract.  There have been major advances in both theory and econometric techniques in mainstream macro-models and parallel advances in knowledge of the monetary transmission mechanism acting via asset prices. At the same time, behavioural finance has provided evidence that not all actors in the economy are 'fully rational' and this has influenced models of asset pricing on which part of the monetary policy transmission mechanism depends. Such uncertainty about the behaviour of asset prices has in part stimulated a move towards 'robustness', as an important criterion for guiding monetary policy. We argue that although we have discovered much, including 'what not to do', nevertheless our knowledge of the transmission mechanism is very incomplete. This is because, in spite of all the theoretical advances that have been made, there is still considerable uncertainty over the behaviour of agents, which has been reinforced by insights from behavioural finance.     

PRICE STABILITY AND THE ECB'S MONETARY POLICY STRATEGY*

Abstract.  This paper focuses on the price stability objective within the framework of the single monetary policy strategy. It starts by reviewing what this objective, which is common to all central banks, means. Second, this paper focuses exclusively on the anchoring of short- to medium-term inflation expectations (Part 2). Several measures show that this anchoring is effective. A 'two-pillar' small structural macro-economic model framework is used to analyze the impact that this anchoring of expectations has on the determination of the short- to medium-term inflation rate. From this point of view, observed inflation in the euro area seems to be in line with the theory and the ECB's action seems to be very effective. Third, we focus on the other aspect of monetary stability: the degree of price-level uncertainty and the anchoring of inflation expectations in the medium to long term. Even though this assessment is more difficult than it is in the short to medium term, since we only have a track record covering 6 years, various indicators from the theoretical analysis paint a fairly reassuring picture of the effectiveness of the device used by the ECB.     

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES INTERACTION IN MONETARY UNIONS

In this paper, the literature on the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in a monetary union is surveyed. By adopting the concept of symbiosis as a starting point, the paper highlights the importance of uncertainty, policy makers' preferences and targets. Then, the role of commitment to policy rules and coordination is addressed. The analysis also focuses on the importance of the data considered for the generation of the policy mix. As a final step, the paper discusses the main results in the literature on public debt management in a monetary union. All the reported theoretical results are then adopted to retrieve policy and institutional implications for the European Monetary Union.     

MONETARY POLICY AND ECONOMIC IMBALANCES: AN ETHNOGRAPHIC EXAMINATION OF CENTRAL BANK RITUALS

We apply the ethnographic tools of economic anthropology to analyse a particular ritual performed by the high priest of the Arbee sub‐tribe in the South Pacific island group of Aotearoa. (In other island groups, this high priest is sometimes known as the Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.) The ritual is considered by many within Aotearoa to be the cause of The Imbalance in The Economy. We analyse this claim and show that it has similarities (and equal validity) to claims of other cargo cults within the South‐West Pacific region.     

MONETARY POLICY AND THE CREDIT CRUNCH

This article examines how interest rates should have been changed in response to the commodity price shock and the credit crunch under different assumptions for the decision rules that might be used by central banks.     

THE BENEFITS AND COSTS OF MONETARY UNION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA: A CRITICAL SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

Abstract.  With the 14 members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) having set the objective of adopting a common currency for the year 2018, an expanding empirical literature has emerged evaluating the benefits and costs of a common-currency area in Southern Africa. This paper reviews that literature, focusing on two categories of studies: (1) those that assume that a country's characteristics are invariant to the adoption of a common currency and (2) those that assume that a monetary union alters an economy's structure, resulting in trade creation and credibility gains. The literature reviewed suggests that a relatively small group of countries, typically including South Africa, satisfies the criteria necessary for monetary unification. The literature also suggests that, in a monetary union comprising all SADC countries and a regional central bank that sets monetary policy to reflect the average economic conditions (e.g. fiscal balances) in the region, the potential losses (i.e. higher inflation) from giving up an existing credible national central bank, a relevant consideration for South Africa, could outweigh any potential benefits of trade creation resulting from a common currency.     

WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE IMPLEMENTATION OF MONETARY AND MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES: A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW

The emergence of macroprudential policies, implemented by central banks as a means of promoting financial stability, has raised many questions regarding the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies. Given the limited number of studies available, this paper sheds light on this issue by providing a critical and systematic review of the literature. To this end, we divide the theoretical and empirical studies into two broad channels of borrowers – consisting of the cost of funds and the collateral constraint – and financial intermediaries – consisting of risk‐taking and payment systems. In spite of the existing ambiguity surrounding coordination issues between monetary and macroprudential policies, it is argued that monetary policy alone is not sufficient to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability. Hence, macroprudential policies are needed to supplement monetary. In addition, we find that the role of the exchange rate is critical in the implementation of monetary and macroprudential policies in emerging markets, while volatile capital flows pose another challenge. In so far as how the arrangement of monetary and macroprudential policies varies across countries, key theoretical and policy implications have been identified.     

DELIBERATIVE MONETARY VALUATION: IN SEARCH OF A DEMOCRATIC AND VALUE PLURAL APPROACH TO ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY

The use of deliberative methods to assess environmental values in monetary terms has been motivated by the potential for small group discussion to help with preference formation and the inclusion of non‐economic values. In this review, two broad approaches are identified: preference economisation and preference moralisation. The former is analytical, concentrates upon issues of poor respondent cognition and produces a narrow conception of value linked to utilitarianism. The latter emphasises political legitimacy, appeals to community values and tends to privilege arguments made in the public interest. Both approaches are shown to embrace forms of value convergence, which undermine the prospects for value pluralism. As a result exclusion and predefinition of values dominates current practice. In order to maintain democratic credentials, the importance attributed to monetary value needs to be left as an open question to be addressed as part of a process determining an “agreement to pay”. To this end we identify a discourse‐based approach as a third way consistent with the democratic and value plural potential of deliberative monetary valuation.     

MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE: SURVEYING THE SURVEYABLE

Abstract.  This paper surveys recent advances in empirical studies of the monetary transmission mechanism, with special attention to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Our results indicate that the strength of the exchange rate pass-through substantially declined over time mainly due to a fall in inflation rates and to some extent due to the so-called composition effect. The asset price channel is weak and is likely to remain weak because of shallow stock and private bond markets and because of low stock and bond holdings of domestic households. House prices may become an exception with booming mortgage lending and with high owner occupancy ratios. While the credit channel could be a powerful channel of monetary transmission – as new funds raised on capital markets are close to zero in CEE – it is actually not, as both commercial banks and non-financial corporations can escape domestic monetary conditions by borrowing from their foreign mother companies. The moderately good news, however, is that those banks and firms are influenced by monetary policy in the euro area because their parent institutions are themselves subjected to the credit channel in the euro area.     

NEW MODES OF MONETARY POLICY: QUALITATIVE EASING BY THE FED

Recent developments in monetary policy demand new analytical tools, in particular an analysis of central banks' balance sheets. During the sub-prime crisis the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve System deteriorated substantially. In this article we analyse the process of this deterioration in detail.     

THE TREASURY SELECT COMMITTEE: ITS REACH AND ITS ROLE IN THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

The Treasury Select Committee's role has evolved in recent years. Since the banking crisis it has undertaken important work in holding government bodies to account and in helping to influence the policy agenda.     

WORDS, DEEDS AND OUTCOMES: A SURVEY ON THE GROWTH EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

Abstract.  Recent studies on the growth effects of exchange rate regimes offer a wide range of different, sometimes contradictory results. In this paper, we systematically compare three prominent contributions in this field. Using a common data set, a common specification and common estimation methods, we argue that the contradictory findings can be explained by the fact that these studies use regime classifications which reflect fundamentally different aspects of exchange rate policy.     

CHILD LABOUR: A REVIEW OF RECENT THEORY AND EVIDENCE WITH POLICY IMPLICATIONS

In recent years, a growing number of authors have turned their attention to the question of why children work. The purpose of this paper is to review some of the more recent theoretical and empirical research into the topic of child labour, and to illustrate the fact that no one factor on its own can account for the phenomenon of child labour. Therefore, policies aimed at eradicating child labour will need to address the broad range of underlying factors that contribute to the incidence of child labour, such as poverty, market imperfections and access to education.     

THE USE AND ABUSE OF MARKETS IN HOUSING POLICY

This paper argues that, despite its rhetoric in support of markets, government does not understand how markets work, but is rather trying to use certain aspects of markets to control social housing. The paper looks at three areas: first, the idea of private finance and how this is used by government as a form of public policy; second, the notion of risk and whether it actually occurs in social housing; and third, the contention that government is incapable of appreciating the manner in which markets operate because it only wishes to provide safe options and so cannot countenance real choice and competition.     

THE ECONOMICS OF HEALTH AND SAFETY AT WORK: AN INTERDICIPLINARY REVIEW OF THE THEORY AND POLICY

Abstract This paper engages in an interdisciplinary survey of the current state of knowledge related to the theory, determinants and consequences of occupational safety and health (OSH). It first describes the fundamental theoretical construct of compensating wage differentials, which is used by economists to understand the optimal provision of OSH in a perfectly competitive labour market. The plethora of incentives faced by workers and firms in job and insurance markets that determine the ultimate level of OSH are discussed in detail. The extensive empirical evidence from the hedonic wage and stated choice approaches used to assess the value of OSH is reviewed. The causes of inefficiency and inequity in the market for OSH, such as externalities, moral hazard in compensation insurance, systematic biases in individual risk perception/well‐being and labour market segregation are subsequently examined. The implications of government intervention and regulation for tackling the aforementioned inefficiencies in OSH are then considered. Finally, the survey identifies areas of future research interests and suggests indicators and priorities for policy initiatives that can improve the health and safety of workers in modern job markets.     

CANTILLON AND HUME ON MONEY AND BANKING: THE FOUNDATIONS OF TWO THEORETICAL TRADITIONS

The distinction between the ‘classical’ monetary theory and ‘quantity’ theory has been proposed in literature on money and banking. The overall feature of the classical theory of money is that it holds one principle of regulation for each kind of issue (metallic money, bank issues and paper money) whereas the quantity theory applied the causality and proportionality postulates for all kinds of monies. Without claiming to adjudicate the validity of such a distinction, the paper investigates the foundation of each tradition. In this respect, this paper, respectively, examines, and provides a survey of the secondary literature on, Cantillon's Essai and the Hume's Discourses.     

THE PRIVATE FINANCING OF NHS HOSPITALS: POLITICS, POLICY AND PRACTICE

This article outlines and critiques the main fiscal and economic rationales for the Private Finance Initiative and examines the impact of the policy on the long-term financial viability of NHS trusts. It concludes that the PFI funding of capital investment is highly problematic. Its high costs can have a negative impact on the finances of health systems.     

FINANCIAL EDUCATION AND BEHAVIORAL FINANCE: NEW INSIGHTS INTO THE ROLE OF INFORMATION IN FINANCIAL DECISIONS

Recent empirical evidence based on surveys and experimental activities within the fields of behavioral finance and financial education has offered economists new empirically based insights into how individuals use information in making financial decisions. Specifically, the importance of information in financial decisions may be reduced or eliminated by psychological aspects of the individual, such as a state of overconfidence that is individual or shared with a group, or by the individual's limited ability to process complex and abundant information. This paper aims to complement this emerging body of literature by studying how individuals perceive and process information when making financial decisions. We review these contributions and suggest a number of broad guidelines that can provide a framework for future discussion of this topic within financial decision theory.