内蒙古人均粮食变化研究

本文分析了内蒙古人均粮食占有量的增长变化过程及其影响因素,进而提出了稳定人均粮食占有量应采取的措施,同进也反映了内蒙古由粮食调入区到90年代转为粮食调出区的生产过程。     

#br# 药交所试点背景下人均医疗费用的影响因素研究

本文采用固定效应模型建立人均医疗费用影响因素的一般模型，并通过引入药交所虚拟变量和考察医生收入的中介效应进一步阐释该模型。研究结果表明，诱导需求与医院规模对人均医疗费用均有显著影响；药交所政策降低了人均医疗费用，但医生收入中介效应的存在使得部分医疗资源被浪费。本文提出了控制人均医疗费用的政策建议：增加医院与卫生院的数量；合理调整医务工作者内部结构；倡导医生自由执业并提供保障；合理增加医生收入。     

COMPARING PPP WITH TRADITIONAL PROCUREMENT: THE CASE OF SCHOOLS PROCUREMENT IN IRELAND

Advocates of public‐private partnerships (PPPs) argue that they can deliver public infrastructure more efficiently than traditional procurement through timelier completion and superior value for money. Despite these claims comparative analysis of the performance of both procurement methods has received scant attention in the PPP literature to date. This paper addresses this issue by providing an in‐depth, case‐based comparison of PPP versus traditional procurement in the schools sector in Ireland. Through detailed semi‐structured interviews with key stakeholders and an examination of the available documentation, we assess whether the key objectives of using PPP have been achieved. Overall, we find no evidence that PPP leads to faster delivery of infrastructure when the overall procurement process from contract notice to delivery is accounted for. In addition, we find only limited evidence to suggest that PPP results in better value for money.     

陕西省人均粮食变化及粮食安全研究

人均粮食占有量是反映粮食供给水平的重要指标。基于陕西省人均粮食占有量时空差异的分析，探讨粮食增量的份额及其地域差异，对因地制宜调控人地粮关系与保障粮食安全提出战略性对策。     

UNDERSTANDING PER‐CAPITA INCOME GROWTH IN PREINDUSTRIAL EUROPE

In a Malthusian environment, per‐capita incomes are stagnant, meaning they cannot exhibit sustained growth. However, they can still display volatility and persistence when hit by shocks. This article simulates a Malthusian model with realistic life‐cycle structure and stochastic and accelerating growth in land productivity. We find that differences across simulated economies are quantitatively similar to those found in recently compiled data over GDP per capita for several European countries before 1800. This speaks to the relevance of the Malthusian model for understanding preindustrial development in Europe, contrasting with contentions to the contrary in some of the existing literature.     

STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME BY SIZE: THE CASE OF INDIA

The interrelation between changes in the economic structure, i.e., industrial distribution of income and labor force, and the size distribution of income is studied in this paper in a case study of India (1951–1960).
The change in the size distribution of income is the sum of changes due to (1) inter-sectoral factors and (2) intra-sectoral factors. The need for this distinction is emphasized by the result obtained for India, that 85% of the changes in the size distribution may be assigned to inter-sectoral factors, and only 15% to intra-sectoral factors. Since the inter-sectoral factors are significantly influenced by changes in the industrial distribution of income and labor force, our result points out a relation between economic growth and the size distribution which quite often is overlooked in studies of the size distribution.
The results obtained in this paper support several cross-section results of Professor Kuznets. In particular some of these are: (a) inter-sectoral inequality in the economic structure widened with economic growth, (b) the inequality in the size distribution of India widened, (c) the level of inequality in India is higher than in any of the eight developed countries considered.     

A COMPARISON OF SOME SHORT-CUT METHODS OF ESTIMATING REAL PRODUCT PER CAPITA

Several recent studies of short-cut estimates comparing real income (on a purchasing power basis) of countries are reviewed, including methods comparing real income based on indicators, like electricity consumption. New estimates are presented for 101 countries which had a tradition of conventional national income estimates in 1965, and for 40 countries without extended national income series. One conclusion from the empircial analysis was that until there exist a large number of countries for which purchasing power estimates of real income are available, it is difficult to discriminate between alternative short-cut methods using indicators, and difficult to estimate real per capita incomes of low income countries without substantial errors of estimate. The paper advocates more purchasing power estimates, and institutionalizing the collection of international prices of specified items so that abbreviated market baskets can be readily compared across countries.     

DISTRIBUTIONS OF REAL INCOME: WITHIN COUNTRIES AND BY WORLD INCOME CLASSES

Income and expenditure data from 14 countries (representing one-third of the world's population), mostly from the 1970s, are used to construct national income distributions and , after normalizing by purchasing power parities, to construct a "world" distribution of real income. The density of real-income equivalent groups (socio-economic classes) across countries is measured for the "affluent," the "well-off," and the "poor." In comparison with earlier studies, most national distributions of income seem to have been improving, the numbers of those in poverty (based on real income) are lower, and, most important (and disturbing for some) is that the "affluent" class (and those above "middle class" income levels) has (prematurely) swelled in a number of developing countries.     

PREDICTING THE EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN WELFARE PAYMENTS ON THE PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING ALTERNATE SOURCES OF INCOME: THE CASE OF HOMELESS PERSONS IN LOS ANGELES

This article investigates the role that changes in welfare payments are likely to have on the earnings behavior of homeless persons. Using a cross-sectional random sample of 1,489 homeless persons in Los Angeles, the author analyzes the marginal effect of reducing public transfers on (a) the probability of earning and (b) the level of income from various traditional and nontraditional sources. This procedure allows the author to control for a number of important factors (including background, human capital, and social network variables) that may also influence the probability of earning income. Findings suggest that reducing government benefit income by $100 increases the probability of receiving income from traditional and nontraditional sources by 1.37% and 2.18% respectively. Among the latter are selling items on the streets and "other" (nonspecified) sources. It is concluded that welfare reform measures may in fact create additional societal costs as former welfare recipients turn to alternative forms of income.     

WORLD INCOME SHARES AND THE TERMS OF TRADE: A NORTH-SOUTH GROWTH CYCLE

The trading relationship between a primary-producing South and a manufacturing North has dynamic properties of conflict and symbiosis similar to those of the closed-economy, worker-capitalist relationship. In a simple model these dynamics may lead to cyclical behaviour involving two variables, the Southern share of world income and the rate of exploitation of primary producing capacity. The rate of change of the terms of trade is also cyclical. Long-run income shares are constant, however, implying that the Southern terms of trade rise by just enough to offset productivity savings on primary inputs.     

全国旅游企业经济指标比较研究

根据多元统计分析中的聚类分析思想,利用衡量旅游企业10个经济指标进行相似度量、距离归属等分析研究,将全国旅游企业的10个经济指标分为3个层次,全国31个省市区分为5个类别。在此基础上按实力分异、收入比较、产业关系的角度对全国旅游企业经济状况进行了初步讨论,并提出了优先投资、“分异”模式、区域合作、开发精品、加强宣传和人才培养等方面的对策建议。     

农户经济收入与经营行为研究--来自黑河流域中游地区的调查

农户是农村经济活动的行为主体，是农业生产中最基本的决策单元。因此，农户经济及其经营行为与持续农业及农村经济发展关系密切。依据黑河流域中游地区农户抽样调查的统计数据，分析了近5年来农户收入的现状和趋势，在此基础上总结了当前农户经营行为的特点，并运用经济学模型对农户经营行为及其对农户收入的影响进行了理论分析。最后根据得出的结论，对政府部门制定农业政策与农村体制提出了一些建议。     

THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME IN LIBERIA

The economy of Liberia is one in which, in spite of past satisfactory growth performance, a high level of income inequality persists. In 1977, for instance, a mere 2 percent of the people accounted for some 33 percent of nation-wide wage income. These people live disproportionately in Montserrado County in which the capital city is located. While each of the other counties are largely rural and poor, each has far lower intra-county inequality than wealthy Montserrado.
Intersectoral location of the income-earner, average income levels and the extent of access to human capital formation opportunities are some characteristics of the economy that have been found to explain significant portions of intercounty variations in the levels of household income concentration. Income inequality is reduced with increases in the extent of agricultural activity as the share of the top income group falls and that of the bottom group rises. The reverse happens with growing urban-area activity. Higher income concentration occurs with rising per capita incomes as the top group's income share rises and the bottom income group's share falls. While this appears to be an instance of the Kuznet U-shaped hypothesis, here there are no definite signs of a possible reversal any time soon. The levels of access to educational facilities move inversely with the level of inequality, with expanding elementary facilities benefiting the poorer people at the expense of the wealthy while the reverse happens in the case of expanding secondary educational facilities.     

我国申报世界文化遗产的条件与对策——西湖案例研究

首先对过去几年来杭州西湖申报世界遗产的工作做一简单回顾,并从遗产价值、城市发展和旅游管理三个角度对其在申报过程中暴露出来的问题加以分析,提出三个对策:①唯一能反映杭州1000多年来的地域文化特色、统领西湖美学价值和茶文化、并在国际上具有深远影响的文化现象,是佛教禅宗。进而认为,西湖只有作为禅宗美学最完美的物证,才能真正认识到西湖巨大的遗产价值。②建设部门应尽快出台“景观条例”(landscape ordinance),在建筑设计和广告设计阶段就介入管理,加强历史景观的保护和恢复。③加强旅游点环境容量研究,出台相关游人限制措施。     

THE COST OF INCOME REDISTRIBUTION IN AUSTRALIA

This paper analyses the effect of raising effective marginal tax rates on the income of the representative household in each gross income decile in Australia by one percentage point, and distributing the proceeds of the tax increase either in the form of an equal grant, or as an equal payment to members of households in the lower half of the income distribution. The effectiveness of the program in redistributing income is measured as the ratio of total gains in disposable income to households in target deciles to losses in non-target groups, or as the proportional reduction in the poverty gap. The cost is measured as the ratio of the sum of the income-equivalent of changes in the welfare of non-target groups to those of target groups, or as the ratio of income-equivalent losses to gains.     

MICROECONOMIC REFORM AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION: THE CASE OF AUSTRALIAN PORTS AND RAIL FREIGHT

We analyze structural changes in the Australian ports and rail freight industries that were driven by microeconomic reform; we find such reforms may generate welfare gains with reduced inequality. We estimate the effects on household income groups of these industry changes by applying a computable general equilibrium model incorporating microsimulation behavior. The structural changes lead to a small increase in household welfare in most regions, with an overall increase of 0.18%, and a small decrease in inequality. Our analysis suggests that policy makers in Australia and other high‐income nations should give serious consideration to microeconomic reform of infrastructure industries. (JEL C68, C69, D31, L92)     

HOUSEHOLD INCOME PLUS HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION: THE DISTRIBUTION OF EXTENDED INCOME IN THE U.K.

This paper provides new estimates of the distribution of extended income amongst non-elderly, one-family households in the U.K. by combining household money income data and valuations of household production time. Extended income is substantially more equal than money income and extending the income definition changes income relativities significantly between families with and without earners and between married couple families and singles.