信贷融资对异质性企业出口参与的影响* ——基于商业信贷和银行信贷角度的理论和实证分析

本文在新新贸易理论框架下，基于商业信贷和银行信贷的综合视角，系统研究了信贷融资对异质性企业出口参与的影响。本文重点围绕商业信贷对银行信贷的促进作用展开分析，从企业层面为中国出口增长“奇迹”提供来自金融视角的证据。本文在异质企业出口模型中引入商业信贷和银行信贷，论证商业信贷和银行信贷通过缓解出口成本融资约束影响企业出口参与，并运用中国制造业企业和IVprobit估计方法进行实证检验。本文发现：（1）改善商业信贷和银行信贷融资状况会提高企业出口概率；（2）商业信贷对银行信贷的促进作用有利于企业参与出口；（3）商业信贷对企业出口参与的作用不受企业所有制、企业规模、行业竞争性和企业出口固定成本差异的影响，银行信贷的作用则受上述差异的影响，商业信贷对银行信贷的促进作用受企业所有制和企业规模差异的影响。因此，发展信贷融资、建立商业信贷和银行信贷的互融互通机制，是加快中国出口增长的重要举措。     

产能治理与企业债务结构再平衡—基于商业信用与银行信贷关系视角

我国上市制造业企业的商业信用与银行信贷关系存在长期互补特征,但信号理论对互补强度的演变过程缺乏有效的解释力.为探索信号理论之外的互补机制,反思企业债务结构的信贷偏移效应,文章提出了产能驱动假说,利用面板门限模型,得到了以下结论:(1)商业信用与银行信贷会随产能增长而呈现从"替代"到"互补"的演变特征,且互补强度(单位商业信用上升伴随的信贷上升)会随产能膨胀出现从"弱"到"强"的二次突变特征,即产能扭曲会使企业债务结构快速向银行信贷偏移,这为理解企业信贷依赖的形成路径提供了产能层面的微观解释.(2)企业债务结构再平衡能力具有异质性,高研发投资及低调整成本企业借助产能治理来修正信贷依赖的能力更强,因此降低调整成本、扶植企业创新应成为优化融资结构的重要政策路径.文章在信号理论之外提出了产能驱动假说,解释了我国企业债务结构扭曲的动态特征,并从技术创新与调整成本视角为推动企业实现债务结构再平衡提供了政策参考.     

The bank lending channel of unconventional monetary policy: The impact of the VLTROs on credit supply in Spain

We assess the impact on the credit supply to non-financial corporations of the two very long term refinancing operations (VLTROs) conducted by the Eurosystem in December 2011 and February 2012 for the case of Spain. To do so we use bank–firm level information from a sample of more than one million lending relationships during two years. Our methodology tackles three main identification challenges: (i) how to disentangle credit supply from demand; (ii) the non-random assignment of firms to banks; (iii) the endogeneity of the VLTRO bids, as banks with more deteriorated funding conditions were more likely both to ask for a large amount of funds and to restrain credit supply. Our findings suggest that the VLTROs had a positive moderate-sized effect on the supply of bank credit to firms. We also find that the effect was greater for illiquid banks and that it was driven by credit to SMEs, as there was no impact on loans to large firms. By contrast, strong firm–bank relationships were less sensitive to the positive liquidity shock caused by the VLTROs, which is consistent with the studies that find that relationship lending is a more stable source of credit than transaction lending. Finally, the VLTROs had no impact on either the degree of loan collateralisation or the probability of making loans to new borrowers, while they decreased the probability of renewing old ones, which suggests that those funds were not used for loan “evergreening”.     

The provision of long-term credit and firm growth in developing countries

Do small and young firms benefit from an increase in the provision of long-term loans? By combining firm-level data from 62 countries (over the period 2006–2016) with a new database on short-term and long-term credit provided to the private sector, this article shows a higher provision of long-term credit does not stimulate growth of small and young firms. On the contrary, an increase in the availability of short-term credit spurs firm growth. The main explanation of this (counter-intuitive) result is the differential impact of short-term and long-term credit provision on small and young firms’ access to credit. Young and small firms are able to take advantage of an increase of short-term loans, which allow them to switch from informal finance to bank loans. However, a higher level of long-term credit does not alleviate credit constraints faced by opaque firms because these funds are allocated towards transparent borrowers.     

DOES INITIAL ACCESS TO BANK LOANS PREDICT START‐UPS' FUTURE DEFAULT PROBABILITY? EVIDENCE FROM ITALY

In Europe, several countries have established public loan guarantee funds throughout direct/indirect loan programs to facilitate the access of SMEs and start‐ups to bank credit. This paper investigates whether start‐ups' level of access to bank loans during the early stage represents an imprinting factor with effects on the likelihood of survival once the firm reaches maturity. We rely on a firm‐level longitudinal data set of 49,111 Italian startups born from 2003 to 2005. Implementing a 2SLS regression analysis we show that the initial level of start‐up bank debt negatively influences the probability of default controlling for firm characteristics and performance. (JEL G21, M20, H32)     

Bank distress and firms’ investment during the Great Recession - evidence from Ireland

This article investigates the impact of bank distress on firms’ performance using unique data during the Great Recession for Ireland. The results show that bank distress, measured as banks’ credit default swap spreads (CDS), has negatively and statistically significantly affected firms’ investment expenditures. Interestingly, firms with access to alternative sources of external finance are not impacted by bank distress. The results are robust to accounting for external finance dependence, demand and trade sensitivities, which affect firm performance and the demand for credit.     

供应商-客户关系会影响企业的商业信用吗*——基于中国上市公司的实证检验

本文以我国上市公司为样本,实证检验了供应商-客户关系对企业商业信用融资规模和期限的影响。结果表明：供应商集中度越高,企业的商业信用融资规模越小,融资期限越短;当企业更容易获得银行贷款、企业所在地的产品市场发育程度更高时,供应商集中度与商业信用融资规模、融资期限之间的相关关系显著弱化。本文从新的视角丰富了企业战略与商业信用研究领域的文献,也为我国进行信贷市场及产品市场建设提供了证据支持。     

How important is the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy in Mexico?

This article empirically examines the importance of the credit channel of monetary policy in Mexico for the period 2004–2013. We estimate a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse the effects of a monetary policy shock on real output, and we also use a threshold VAR model to investigate asymmetric effects of contractionary and expansionary policies. The empirical results suggest that a contractionary monetary policy results in a fall in the supply of loans together with an increase in the spread between the lending and deposit rate. To the extent that some borrowers are dependent on bank loans for credit, the reduced supply of loans amplifies the effects of monetary policy on output associated with the traditional interest rate channel. Our results also suggest that the importance of the credit channel is larger for contractionary shocks than for expansionary shocks.     

Financing R&D in Chinese private firms: Business associations or political connection?

Using a new and unique dataset of Chinese private firms, this paper explores how private firms access bank loans to finance innovative activities. The results reveal that political connection, rather than membership in a government-controlled business association, largely determines private firms' innovations by providing access to bank loans. Furthermore, the “grease-the-wheels” mechanism of political connection is stronger if the firms are more constrained financially, located in regions with low levels of financial development, or located in regions with relatively under-developed institutional environments. Finally, cash flow, used to measure internal financing, and trade credit, used to measure informal financing, are important alternative financing channels and support firms' R&D investments. Our paper implies that China's government needs to continue fostering a good financing environment and supporting innovation activities.     

Concentration in Asia's cross-border banking: Determinants and impacts

Cross-border bank positions in Asia and the Pacific remain highly concentrated among a few counterparties, exposing the region to financial risks and policy spillovers. Consequently, assessing the determinants and impacts of the region's cross-border banking concentration is relevant to the design of appropriate policies for promoting financial development and safeguarding financial stability. To this end, we construct cross-border bank concentration measures for 47 economies in Asia and the Pacific from 2000 to 2019. The results show that higher capital account and trade openness and per capita income are significantly associated with lower cross-border bank concentration. Moreover, elevated cross-border bank concentration tends to lower domestic credit and nonperforming loans. We find no impact on bank profitability for the region.     

我国农业上市公司的政治关联与融资便利性

本文以社会资本理论为切入点，实证分析政治关联对我国农业上市公司获取银行信贷融资及其期限结构的影响。以1996—2010年间在沪深两地上市的农业企业为样本，以董事长是否现在或曾经担任政府官员、人大代表、政协委员来判断政治关联。检验结果发现，农业上市公司的政治关联与银行贷款数量显著正相关；政治关联所带来的融资便利性，更多表现为获取银行的短期贷款。研究表明，政治关联作为一种特殊的社会资本，能够作为非正式制度帮助农业企业获得银行信贷支持。     

Market structure and credit procyclicality: Lessons from loan markets in the European Union banking sectors

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the market structure has an impact on procyclicality in the European Union bank loan markets. The cyclical responses of three types of bank loans (residential mortgage loans, consumer loans, and corporate loans) are quantified separately using the interacted panel vector autoregression model at the country level and the single-equation panel regression model at the bank level. Using a sample of 26 European Union countries, we find that the procyclical responses of residential mortgage loans and consumer loans are significantly stronger and prolonged when the banking sector is more concentrated or dominated by foreign banks. However, we find that there are nonlinear relationships between the market structure and credit procyclicality based on bank-level data. We also find some heterogeneities between advanced and transitioning European Union banking sectors. Finally, our findings confirm the leading role of residential mortgages in intensifying credit fluctuations.     

Enterprise restructuring and bank competition in transition economies

We investigate how bank competition affects the efficiency of credit allocation, using a model of spatial competition. Our analysis shows that bad loans are more likely the larger the number of banks competing for customers. We study further how many banks will be active if market entry is not regulated. Free entry can induce too much entry and thus too many bad loans compared to the social optimum. Finally we analyse how bank competition affects the restructuring efforts of firms. We find that restructuring has positive externalities which give rise to multiple equilibria, with either much or little restructuring activity.
JEL classification: D43, G21, G34, L13, P31, P34.     

Cash flow vs. collateral‐based credit

We study factors affecting micro, small and medium‐sized enterprises (MSMEs) receiving loans and the effect of these loans on MSMEs performance. We study two types of loans – a new type based on cash flows and a traditional‐style loan based on collateral. We use unique surveys of MSMEs from Bulgaria, Georgia, Russia and Ukraine. We find that MSMEs receiving a cash flow or collateral loan in the past are more likely to receive the same type of loan (and larger sized) in the future and that cash flow loans may be the preferred form of credit. Both types of loans are related positively to most performance indicators, enabling the MSMEs for instance to be more profitable and expand production. The cash flow loans also appear to be particularly attractive credit delivery schemes for micro and small enterprises. Finally, the effects of the smallest loans are often negative, suggesting that the minimum loan size is an important policy issue.     

Bank versus nonbank financial institution lending behaviour: indictors of firm size,risk or ownership?

Using 1251 matched commercial loan deal terms of listed companies over the period 2003–2014, we examine the heterogeneity of lending behaviours of bank and nonbank financial institutions. The results show that large firms have a higher likelihood of getting loans from nonbank financial institutions. Compared to banks, nonbank financial institutions are more likely to provide credit help to high operation risk firms. State-owned listed firms have a higher probability to get finance from nonbank financial institutions than private firms, which highlights the situation that private firms are in a weak position to get credit help from China’s financial system. Moreover, the process of increasing the banks’ noninterest income ratio tends to drives firms to borrow from nonbank financial institutions.     

A QUEST FOR UNFETTERED CREDIT: HOW MONETARY POLICY DRIVES CREDIT RISK TRANSFER OF STRUCTURED FINANCE PRODUCTS

This study examines the effects of monetary policy contractions on bank loans to households and firms and instruments in three different credit risk transfer (CRT) capital markets over two separate time periods (1995–2006 and 2007–2015). The findings show that in both periods, banks decrease business lending but increase lending to consumers through a combination of mortgage, auto, credit card, and student loans from more liquidity produced by consumer‐related CRT activity. Additional results reveal relative CRT movements toward securitized mortgages from bank mortgage debt over both periods and toward securitized and insured business loans from bank business debt in the latter period, which suggest vulnerabilities among interconnected credit markets. (JEL E44, E51, G21, G23)     

基于多银行贷款池的合成CDO设计

近年国际上资产证券化和信用衍生产品的发展为中小企业信贷风险分散和转移提供了现实可能性，通过构建最优的风险收益分配契约的多银行贷款资产组合进一步解决了证券化过程中的效率损失问题。本文设计、提出了基于多银行贷款组合的中小企业贷款合成CDO交易结构，能够有效剥离、转移和分散中小企业贷款信用风险，降低银行信贷资产风险集中度，降低监管资本成本，在风险分散、缓解信息不对称问题、降低交易成本等方面具有独特优势。     

Bank Credit,Firm Entry and Exit,and Economic Fluctuations in China

This study explores how a worsening bank credit quality affects firms＇ entry and exit decisions （i.e., changes in the extensive margin）, and how the extensive margin variation amplifies the transmission of financial and technological shocks to the real economy. Using a vector autoregression （VAR） model, our empirical evidence indicates that deteriorating Chinese bank credit conditions have a significant negative influence on net firm entry to the market. To explore the potential mechanism behind the stylized fact, we establish a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE） model featuring fixed production costs, loss-related bank credit quality shocks and an endogenous balance sheet constraint which restricts the aggregate credit supply by the level of the banks＇ net worth. Model simulations indicate that the interaction of financial constraints and the extensive margin variation amplifies the impact of bank credit shocks on the real economy. When banks experience loss-related financial shocks, bank credit tightens, which increases firms＇ external financing costs. When the firms＇ expected income is not sufficient to cover the fixed production cost, some firms exit from or stop entering the market. As a result, the economy displays a severe recession and a slow recovery.     

Does Trade Credit Substitute Bank Credit? Evidence from Firm‐level Data

The paper examines micro data on Italian manufacturing firms' inventory behaviour to test the Meltzer (1960) hypothesis according to which firms substitute bank credit with trade credit (TC) during money tightening. We find that inventory investment of Italian manufacturing firms is constrained by their availability of TC and that this effect more than doubles during monetary restrictions. As for the magnitude of the substitution effect, however, we find that it is not sizeable. This is in line with the micro theories of TC and the evidence on actual firm practices, according to which credit terms display modest variations over time .