Economic growth and poverty traps in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of education and TFP shocks

This paper investigates the “education-total factor productivity trade-off” in explaining income per worker differences between sub-Saharan (unlucky) and G7 (lucky) economies. First, we examine the dynamics of average years of schooling (i.e. education), capital per worker, income per worker, and total factor productivity (TFP) across sub-Saharan and G7 countries. We confirm that physical capital and education levels partially explain income per worker differences between lucky and unlucky economies. Second, we undertake a novel examination of the impact of technology shocks on income per worker, with the goal of understanding the role of technology variation in causing cross-country income per worker differences, and as a potential contributor to overall slow growth in the sub-Saharan region. In a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework, we show that the impact of “ad hoc” TFP shocks on income per worker is larger in unlucky economies than in lucky ones. We observe that average TFP volatility in the “unlucky world” is eight times higher than in the “G7 world”. We argue that the order of magnitude of the impact heavily depends on the level of the TFP volatility. Last, we suggest that the documented differences in the amount of physical capital and in the productivity of human capital between these two regions add conceptual support for the existence of poverty traps for sub-Saharan Africa.     

Second thoughts on development accounting

The relative roles of factor inputs and productivity are estimated in explaining the level of economic development. For a large sample of countries, it is shown that international differences in factor inputs account for between two thirds and three quarters of international differences in output per worker if alternative identifying productivity assumptions and a quality-adjusted measure of human capital are employed. For a sample of OECD countries, it is found that all differences in output per worker can be attributed to differences in factor inputs, leaving no role for international productivity differences. This result supports the reasoning of a traditional neoclassical growth model.     

Technology,convergence, and growth in the European Union

This paper contains an empirical analysis of growth and convergence in the European Union using a cross-country data set covering the period 1950–92. It seeks an answer to the question why some countries in Europe manage to catch up, while others, most notably the poorest ones, apparently do not. The empirical evidence provided in the paper points to several responsible factors. The distance of the economy to the technological leader differed across economies, which contributed to differences in convergence and growth behavior. In addition, the finding of conditional convergence implies that economies converge to different steady state levels of income per capita. Poor economies, like Portugal, Greece, Spain, and Ireland, presumably converge to a lower steady state level of income per capita, which leads to persistent differences in income per capita. Funding for this project was provided in part by the Securities Industry Foundation for Economic Education, the Council on Economic Education in Maryland, and the Towson State University Faculty Development and Research Committee.     

Interaction between knowledge and technology: a contribution to the theory of development

Abstract.  This article attempts to explain the large and persistent disparities in levels of output per worker across countries. It is argued that an explanation for these disparities requires an understanding of the relationship between knowledge and technology. The model that is constructed can be summarized as an open-economy version of the Solow-Swan growth model, in which technological change is investment specific, and knowledge about new technologies is embodied in labour. In the model, income differences arise because poor countries lack the knowledge to implement foreign technologies productively. Furthermore, these disparities persist when countries differ in their ability to learn. JEL classification: F43, O11     

States and Markets: The Advantage of an Early Start

In this paper, an index of the depth of experience with state-level institutions, or state antiquity, is derived for a large set of countries. We show that state antiquity is significantly correlated with measures of political stability and institutional quality, with income per capita, and with the rate of economic growth between 1960 and 1995. State antiquity contributes significantly to the explanation of differences in growth rates, explaining half of the differences in growth rates between countries like China and Mauritania, which are located at the two ends of the spectrum. It is also a good instrument for social infrastructure, which explains cross-country differences in worker productivity.     

CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH: WHAT DO WE LEARN FROM MULTIPLE‐BREAK UNIT ROOT TESTS?

This paper investigates China's economic growth by performing multiple‐break unit root tests on the data of national and sectoral output and output per worker to identify their steady‐state and transitional growth paths. The evidence generated suggests that the growth behaviour of the Chinese economy is consistent with endogenous growth theory. The results of multiple‐break unit root tests are then explained within the endogenous growth framework, using historical observations on how the evolution of economic institution/environment causes changes in some institutional parameters and hence in the steady‐state growth rate of GDP per worker.     

CENTRAL PLANNING LEGACIES: THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE GREAT LEAP FORWARD IN CHINA

The Great Leap Forward (GLF) (1958–61) in China was a natural experiment that removed private property rights to achieve rapid growth via central planning, producing immediate famine and death. Using three measures for the GLF, we find that it still exerts a significant negative effect on output per worker in 2004 across Chinese provinces. This result is robust to the use of political factors from the GLF period as instruments. The causal relationship persists after controlling for climate conditions and initial output per capita. Moreover, the causal relationship exists when we change the dependent variable to output per worker in 1978, which refutes the notion that market‐oriented reforms alone explain the difference in income in 2004. Therefore, the GLF has had a lasting, negative effect on output.     

Human capital aggregation and relative wages across countries

Most of the growth accounting literature relies on an aggregate production function to determine the contribution of factors of production relative to that of total factor productivity (TFP) in explaining differences in incomes across countries. I show that the importance of TFP in accounting for cross-country income differences depends crucially on how skilled and unskilled labor are aggregated. Further, cross-country evidence on the relationship between relative wages and relative endowments of skilled and unskilled labor suggests that the two types of labor should not be aggregated into a single factor of production. Growth accounting decomposition using a commonly used nested-CES aggregate production function that allows skilled and unskilled labor to be used as separate factors of production results in a significantly greater role for TFP in accounting for income differences across countries than that found by past studies. The finding that different aggregate production functions lead to significantly different conclusions about the role of TFP in accounting for cross-country income differences calls for a more general approach to understanding such differences.     

Cross-country income convergence revisited

We reassess convergence of income across countries and its determinants. The ergodic distribution of output per worker features multiple modes. In contrast to previous findings, productivity in the long run is unimodal. The long-run distribution of human capital is multimodal.     

Factor Mobility and Income Growth: Two Convergence Hypotheses

While technologies and policy fundamentals are presumably different internationally, inducing differences in growth rates, capital mobility can be a powerful force in equalizing output growth rates across countries. The paper provides some indirect evidence in support of this effect. In the context of regional growth, however, labor mobility can potentially equalize income levels across regions in the presence of human capital externalities. Supporting evidence is found for this effect, revealing that restrictions on labor flows tend to make per capita incomes more divergent across nations and/or regions.     

The Economic Cost of Gender Gaps in Effective Labor: Africa's Missing Growth Reserve

This study analyzes the impact of the gender gap in effective labor – defined as the combined effect of the gender gaps in labor force participation and education – on economic output per worker. The results indicate that the gender gap in effective labor has a negative effect on the economic output per worker in African countries. A 1 percent increase in the gender gap in effective labor leads to a reduction in output per worker by 0.43–0.49 percent in Africa overall, 0.29–0.50 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa, and 0.26–0.32 percent in a wider group of countries from Africa and Asia. The total annual economic losses due to gender gaps in effective labor could be as high as US$255 billion for the African region. Results confirm that Africa is missing its full growth potential because a sizeable portion of its growth reserve – women – is not fully utilized.     

Dynamics of endogenous growth

Summary We present an overlapping generations model of endogenous fertility and growth. The cost of child rearing and the effect of population size on total factor productivity determine the dynamics of competitive equilibrium path of our model. The non-linear dynamics of the model generates a plethora of outcomes (depending on the functional forms, parameters and initial conditions) that include not only the neo-classical steady state with exponential growth of population with constant per capita income and consumption, but also growth paths which do not converge to a steady state and are even chaotic. Exponential, and even super exponential, growth of per capita output are possible in some cases.We would like to thank Mukul Majumdar, Kazuo Nishimura and an anonymous referee for many comments.     

Public Expenditure,Environment, and Economic Growth

This paper attempts to develop a model of endogenous growth with special consideration to the role of productive public expenditure in the presence of congestion effect of private capital and environmental pollution. We analyze the properties of the optimal fiscal policy in the steady‐state equilibrium when the level of production of the final good is the source of emission. Government allocates its income tax revenue between pollution abatement expenditure and productive public expenditure. In the steady‐state equilibrium, optimum ratio of productive public expenditure to national income is less than the competitive output share of the public input; and this ratio varies inversely with the magnitude of the emission‐output coefficient. The steady‐state equilibrium appears to be a saddle point; and the market economy growth rate is not necessarily less than the socially efficient growth rate in the steady‐state equilibrium.     

Fiscal policies, environmental pollution and economic growth

This paper develops a model of endogenous economic growth with special consideration to the role of productive public expenditure and environmental pollution; and analyses the properties of optimal fiscal policy in the steady state growth equilibrium. We consider the level of consumption as the source of pollution. Government allocates its tax revenue between pollution abatement expenditure and productive public expenditure. Optimum ratio of productive public expenditure to national income is equal to the competitive output share of the public input, when productive public expenditure is depicted as tax revenue minus abatement expenditure. However, the proportional income tax rate exceeds the competitive output share of the public input. There is no conflict between the social welfare maximizing solution and the growth rate maximizing solution in the steady state growth equilibrium. The unique steady state growth equilibrium appears to be a saddle-point when the growth rate is above a critical level and the steady state equilibrium growth rate in the market economy is not necessarily lower than the socially efficient growth rate.     

Entry costs and cross-country differences in productivity and output

This paper contributes to the literature on cross-country income differences by studying the effect of entry barriers on productivity and output. Using instrumental variable regressions I show that higher entry costs significantly reduce output per worker and that they do so by lowering total factor productivity. In particular, an increase in entry costs by 80% of income per capita, which is one half of their standard deviation in my sample, is estimated to decrease total factor productivity and output per worker by 22% and 29%, respectively.      

Youth dependency and total factor productivity

Recent literature shows empirical support for an effect of demographic age structure on economic growth. This literature does not give attention to the possibility that age structure might also have an effect on total factor productivity. Much of the recent literature on economic growth has stressed that an understanding of cross-country differences in output per worker is needed. That literature argues that the most important determinant of international differences in output per worker is differences in total factor productivity. This paper finds empirical evidence in cross-country data for the thesis that the youth dependency ratio (the population below working age divided by the population of working age) reduces ‘residual’ growth, which measures total factor productivity growth. For this reason, the paper demonstrates that age structure has an effect on the most important determinant of international differences in output per worker.     

Institutions and economic development: How strong is the relation?

This paper investigates the relationship between institutions and economic development (output per worker). As in Hall and Jones (1999), we find that a 1% improvement in institutions (as we measure them) generates on average a 5% increase in output per worker. However, this relationship is not linear and the data have important heterogeneity. Countries with the same value of institutions have different levels of income per worker. We ask whether the “returns to institutions” are the same across countries conditional on the level of institutions. Using quantile regression methods, we show that for countries at the top of the conditional distribution of international incomes, the “returns to institutions” are lower (around 3.8%,) than for countries at the bottom of this distribution (around 6.2%). We show that this result is robust for different model specifications and definitions of institutions. We also provide evidence that, conditional on the level of institutional development, the distribution of output per worker tends to become less disperse as countries improve their institutional framework. In other words, having better institutions is essential in order to close the output-per-worker gap across countries. Finally, we provide the rationale behind the results through a modified version of a Neoclassical Growth Model with time varying wedges, representing policy distortions and institutions.We thank Lee Alston, Roger Koenker, and Stephen L. Parente for helpful discussion, Werner Baer for useful comments, and Chad Jones for facilitating access to the data set. We are also indebted to an anonymous referee and an associate editor for important suggestions that improved the final paper. The analysis, opinions and findings expressed herein represent the views of the authors, they are not necessarily those of the Banco de Portugal. Any remaining errors are our responsibility.First version received: May 2001/Final version received: August 2003     

Nonhomothetic Preferences and International Trade

This study examines whether nonhomothetic preferences underlie the “missing trade” problem associated with factor content of trade models. We first find that per capita income goes a long way in explaining differences in goods consumption across countries. We then find a striking correlation between the factor content of consumption and per capita income, and show that accounting for this is a key part of resolving the case of the missing trade. However, nonhomothetic preferences over broad categories of expenditure play only a small role in this phenomenon. Rather, we find that as income grows, spending is directed towards the relatively capital‐intensive version of a given good. Since recent research shows that capital intensity is correlated with quality ( Schott, 2004 ), our results suggest that within‐product quality differences are likely important for explaining the factor content of trade, whereas nonhomothetic preferences over broad categories of expenditure are much less so.     

International technological knowledge differences and economic growth comparisons: USA versus West Germany and Sweden versus Norway, 1963–1988

The main interest in this paper is governed by the methodology for making evolutive growth comparisons in the international context. The paper analysis differences in levels, and changes of these levels of aggregate output between the above mentioned countries, in terms of differences in factors input and levels of technological knowledge, for the period 1963–1988. Sources of economic growth in each country are also examined on an annual and average annual basis. Th conclusion is that technological knowledge differences between countries hold a central role in explaining output differences between them. A slight overtake of the technological lead is observed in comparing Sweden and Norway between 1977 and 1985 when a recovery by Sweden begining in 1986 is detected. A certain part of the output differences between the US and West Germany is explaining by the differences in technology between these two countries. However, capital intensity in the US is found to be almost double in 1988, and this accounts for a great part of the differences in output per unit of labour input between the two countries in that year. It is suggested that while technological knowledge or total factor productivity seems to hold the stage in explaining output differences over time and among the countries here analysed, technological developmment is itself a phenomenon to be explained, this being a part of a long intellectual ‘walk’ by the author.     

Rich Nations, Poor Nations: How Much Can Multiple Equilibria Explain?

This paper asks whether the income gap between rich and poor nations can be explained by multiple equilibria. We explore the quantitative implications of a simple two-sector general equilibrium model that gives rise to multiplicity, and calibrate the model for 127 countries. Under the assumptions of the model, around a quarter of the world’s economies are found to be in a low output equilibrium. We also find that, since the output gains associated with an equilibrium switch are sizeable, the model can explain between 15 and 25% of the variation in the logarithm of GDP per worker across countries.