THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND: RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT

The demographic transition, from high to low mortality and fertility, entails several decades during which a country's dependency ratio falls, bringing a demographic dividend to which a third of East Asia's late twentieth‐century economic growth ‘miracle’ has been attributed. Can a similar miracle be expected in sub‐Saharan Africa in the next few decades, or will relentless population pressure prevent this?     

HOUSE PRICES AND THE ECONOMY

UK house prices more than doubled from 1985 until 1989, with house price inflation over the previous year peaking at 34 per cent in the fourth quarter of 1988. The ratio of house prices to average incomes reached levels which surpassed even those experienced during the 1972-73 house price boom. This sharp increase in housing wealth has been a major factor in the fall in the savings ratio over the past three years. This forecast release examines the prospects for future house price movements, discusses the sources of the recent house price boom and finally considers the possible impact on consumer expenditure.     

LOWER OIL PRICES AND THE UK ECONOMY

Demand for oil remains weak, and OPEC production is running ahead of quota in most member countries, so the possibility that oil prices could fall in the near future has increased. In this Forecast Release we examine the medium-term impact on the UK economy of lower oil prices. We find that, if the government does not intervene to protect the exchange rate, there is an immediate stimulus to output growth. The inflation rate, though, is 1–2 percentage points higher after three years.     

THE MARKET ECONOMY AND THE TEACHINGS OF THE CHRISTIAN GOSPEL

The reality of the market economy is not an economy in which Christian values are generally evident. Although there are many prominent Christian capitalist writers, the real world is a world of rather more materialistic values. It does not have to be like that. It is possible for people to take Christian values out into the world of business and prosper.     

DEMOGRAPHIC EFFECTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CONSEQUENCES FOR THE PROVISION OF PENSIONS

As the population of an economy ages saving declines and, through that channel, economic growth can decline too. Returns to physical capital fall, making the provision of pensions more and more difficult. The income of the working population deteriorates and they respond by having fewer children. This intensifies the problem even further.     

CHRISTIANITY, THE MARKET ECONOMY AND THE LIMITS TO HUMAN KNOWLEDGE

At one time, the prevailing view amongst Christian clergy in Britain would have been sympathetic towards the spontaneous order of the market economy and not sympathetic towards socialism. The spontaneous order, would, of course, have included the rich tapestry of philanthropic organisations and mutual societies that used to provide welfare for the poor. The clergy today are not generally sympathetic towards the market order. An understanding of Austrian ideas takes us to the view that, at the very least, socialist rationalism is the common enemy of Christians and those who support a free market order.     

THE DYNAMICS OF REGIONAL POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

The authors investigate what Muth labels as the "chicken and egg" or what others label it as "jobs follow people" versus "people follow jobs" debate by studying the dynamic relationships of changes in population and employment in the snowbelt, the sunbelt, and the nine census regions of the United States. The vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling method is used for the annual time series data (1955–1988) on population and employment. The Granger causality tests show that, in the snowbelt region, population tends to precede employment, while in the sunbelt region, the opposite is true. The impulse response functions generated for the forecasting decade suggest that "jobs follow people" in the snowbelt and "people follow jobs" in the sunbelt. Similar findings in general hold for the census regions belonging to the snowbelt and sunbelt. These findings raise doubts about the proposition of others that the growth process is either demand or supply-driven in all phases of regional growth.     

THE ECONOMY AFTER THE ELECTION

With the election out of the way and signs of recovery tentatively in place, the Government is likely to take steps to bring the economic and political cycles back into kilter so that it does not have to fight the next election under the handicap of recession. This suggests that its first priority will be to consolidate the progress on inflation with a tight fiscal and monetary stance, deferring until 1993-4 any significant relaxation of policy. Holding the exchange rate close to its present parity will therefore take priority over interest rate cuts which may have to wait on a lead from the Bundesbank. On fiscal policy the aim will be to reduce the budget deficit, which suggests a tough approach to public expenditure in this year's spending round.     

BEYOND THE HYPE: INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY AND THE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY/KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY

Abstract.  This paper explores the debates surrounding whether or not we have now moved into a new knowledge economy and/or knowledge society and if so whether this shift is as significant and as far reaching as the industrial revolution. In this possible transformation the place of information communications technologies has been crucial. Debate has occurred across both economics and sociology with differing emphases as is shown in the ranges of definitions that we review in the paper. One consistent factor is the lack of clarity and consistency between them both within and across the disciplines. In order to explore the issues that the debates raises in a more grounded way, the paper explores them in relation to intellectual property (IP) and the intellectual commons in the process of innovation, growth and economic development. The paper is developed through an analysis first of the industrial revolution and the role within this of uncertainty, technologies, complementarities and elective affinities and the way IP was protected and controlled through patents, secrecy, being first to the market and copyright. The second part of the paper examines definitions of the knowledge economy and society and the role within these of information communication technologies in order to explore whether the ways that IP is protected and controlled have changed. In the debate about the 'knowledge economy and society' the role of innovation via human capital with a greater reliance on intellectual capabilities has been emphasized. The role of IP thus remains central but is now challenged by the rise of new forms of communication, which make its protection harder and move much of the concern with respect to regulation to a global rather than national and local level.     

COMMENTS ON THE DYNAMICS OF REGIONAL POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

There has been much discussion about whether population growth causes employment growth or vice versa. This study supplements the work of Mathur and Song by confirming that population growth causes employment growth in die Snowbelt and die reverse in die Sunbelt. Also, regional growth rates of population and employment alternated between convergence, divergence, and convergence during 1955-88.     

ETHICS AND THE MARKET ECONOMY: INSIGHTS FROM CATHOLIC MORAL THEOLOGY

The ethical dimension of market solutions to problems is often neglected by their proponents. This article examines the market from the standpoint of orthodox Roman Catholic moral theology. It illustrates how Catholic theologians have contributed to thinking about the market, draws attention to Catholicism's positive assessment of entrepreneurship, and outlines paths for future Catholic reflection on the market.     

THE CZECH REPUBLIC: PROGRESS TOWARDS FREEDOM AND A MARKET ECONOMY

The Czech Republic has made good progress towards a market economy, though its experience shows that it is easier to change the political system than the economic system. It shows also that public expectations tend to be too high: economic transformation cannot be costless and rapid as is often assumed. The Czech Republic wishes to participate in European integration though it has reservations about the degree of regulation, harmonisation and bureaucratisation in the EU.     

经济走势决定写字楼复苏——京沪深甲级写字楼上半年回顾及下半年预测

与上半年如火如茶的住宅市场相比,写字楼市场要逊色得多。从目前的市场表现来看,主要一线城市写字楼租金下降明显,上半年北京、上海、广州、深圳甲级写字楼租金与2008年底相比分别下滑10．82％、9．74％、9．04％、1．26％。空置率上升,客户纷纷搬离高档办公场所;金融危机尤其对外资客户影响巨大,相对应的甲级（顶级）写字楼市场表现尤为乏力,而准甲级、乙级写字楼相对抗跌。     

INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS AND THE BRITISH ECONOMY IN THE 1990s: MRS THATCHER'S LEGACY

The authors challenge the view that the UK Conservative governments during the 1980s achieved important advances in industrial performance through the abandonment of corporatist policies that allowed management to regain the initiative and push through changes in work organization. The article takes issue with the idea that collective labour institutions necessarily impair economic efficiency, and it points up important connections between Thatcher's offensive against organized labour and the enduring weaknesses in human capital and technology. The article has three sections: the first examines labour markets and industrial relations; the second analyses government regulation; and the third assesses trends and prospects for the future, with emphasis on employment flexibility and labour productivity. The authors conclude with some comments on future prospects in the context of Britain's fuller integration in Europe.     

THE FAILURE OF THE POLL TAX AND CLASSICAL LIBERAL POLITICAL ECONOMY: LESSONS FOR THE FUTURE

The failure of the Poll Tax has been claimed to be an indictment of the principles of classical liberal political economy that it was intended to apply to local government finance. This article argues that, on the contrary, the failure of the Poll Tax was entirely predictable from the perspective of classical liberal political economy, and, in particular, public choice economics, because it involved a politically impossible reassignment of the local tax burden, presented local electors with an insurmountable collective action problem and ignored the 'vote motive' underlying the actions of national politicians held accountable for the new tax. Finally, the article proposes some lessons for the future of local government reform from the experience of the Poll Tax.     

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF OVERLAPPING JURISDICTIONS AND THE FRENCH/DUTCH REJECTION OF THE EU CONSTITUTION

In seeking to protect their failed social model by rejecting the EU constitution, French and Dutch voters ironically contributed to promoting the very 'liberal' order they misunderstand and despise. When, as in federalist politics, functions overlap, two levels of government compete for the same votes in the same territory in the supply of similar services. Not unlike the tragedy of the commons in oil extraction, it is in the interest of both political authorities to seek to gain votes in implementing the programme first. The overall equilibrium supply of public services is excessive and both levels of government have a tendency to invade every field. Short of effective constitutional limits on the powers of the central government, a more decentralised EU offers an opportunity to overcome the common-pool problem of multi-level government.     

ON THE ESTIMATION OF POPULATION MEANS AND RATIOS USING SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

In this paper we discuss the problem of estimating population means and ratios of population means using supplementary information on an auxiliary variable. Two classes of estimators are proposed, depending on two parameters. The bias and mean square error of each of the involved estimators is obtained to the first order of approximation. It is shown that, with a proper choice of the values for the parameters, the estimators are more efficient than the conventional estimators. Numerical examples are provided.     

THE BRITISH ECONOMY SINCE 1945

Book reviewed in this article:
Nicholas C. R. Crafts and Nicholas Woodward (eds.) (1991), The British Economy Since 1945.
Alec Cairncross (1992) The British Economy Since 1945.
G. C. Peden (1991) British Economic and Social Policy: Lloyd George to Margaret Thatcher.
Terry Gourvish and Alan O'Day (eds.) (1991) Britain Since 1945.
Sidney Pollard (1992) The Development of the British Economy 1914–1990.