Estimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers on College Enrollment: A Regression–Discontinuity Approach*

An important problem faced by colleges and universities, that of evaluating the effect of their financial aid offers on student enrollment decisions, is complicated by the likely endogeneity of the aid offer variable in a student enrollment equation. This article shows how discontinuities in an East Coast college's aid assignment rule can be exploited to obtain credible estimates of the aid effect without having to rely on arbitrary exclusion restrictions and functional form assumptions. Semiparametric estimates based on a regression–discontinuity (RD) approach affirm the importance of financial aid as an effective instrument in competing with other colleges for students.     

The growth effects of tax rates in the OECD

This paper explores the merits of macro‐ and micro‐based tax rate measures within an open economy “fiscal policy and growth” model. Using annual data for 15 OECD countries we find statistically small, non‐robust long‐run growth effects of macro‐based average tax rates on capital income and consumption, but some evidence for average labour income tax effects. Changes in “micro” marginal income tax rates at both the personal and corporate levels yield statistically robust GDP responses of modest size. Both domestic and foreign corporate taxes appear relevant. In general, tax effects on GDP operate largely via factor productivity rather than factor accumulation.     

ENROLLMENT AT HIGHLY SELECTIVE PRIVATE COLLEGES: WHO IS LEFT BEHIND?

This study examines the enrollment decisions of freshmen applicants to highly selective private colleges relative to highly selective public colleges. The empirical analysis shows that college enrollment varies by family income—in particular, low-income students with demonstrated financial need are less likely to enroll at private colleges, controlling for other factors including race and financial aid. Grant aid tends to have a moderating effect but the amount of aid under the existing college pricing and financial aid system appears to be inadequate. This finding provides support for recent revamping of financial aid offerings to low-income students by some highly selective private colleges. In addition, the results suggest that while family income appears to be a strong determinant of enrollment at these colleges, race does not seem to play a role . ( JEL I21)     

Higher education, elite institutions and inequality

We develop a model of higher education to analyze the effects of elite institutions on individual educational decisions and aggregate labor market outcomes. Elite institutions allow the most talented of a given population to separate themselves from the larger pool of agents enrolled in higher education, and to earn the associated wage premium in the labor market. As elite institutions engage in cream skimming, the returns to publicly accessible education decrease, and enrollment in public higher education declines. The resulting effect on income inequality is ambiguous, since elite education increases income dispersion at the top of the income distribution, and decreases income dispersion at the bottom.     

The impact of cost on the choice of university: evidence from Ontario

Abstract. This paper provides the first Canadian study of the link between cost to the student and the choice of university. Over the past two decades, there has been a substantial increase in the differences among Ontario universities in ‘net cost’ defined as tuition and fees minus the expected value to an academically strong student of a guaranteed merit scholarship. Our estimates generally indicate no relationship between net cost and the overall share of strong applicants that a university is able to attract. An increase in net cost is associated with an increase in the ratio of strong students from high‐income neighbourhoods to strong students from middle‐income and low‐income neighbourhoods in Arts and Science programs but not in Commerce and Engineering. Finally, more advantaged students are more likely to attend university, but merit aid is not of disproportionate benefit to those from more economically advantaged backgrounds, given registration. JEL classification: Health Education and Welfare     

Post‐secondary attendance by parental income in the U.S. and Canada: Do financial aid policies explain the differences?

We examine the extent to which tuition and needs‐based aid policies explain important differences in the relationship between family income and post‐secondary attendance relationships between Canada and the U.S. Using data from recent cohorts, we estimate substantially smaller attendance gaps by parental income in Canada relative to the U.S., even after controlling for family background, cognitive achievement, and local‐residence fixed effects. We next document that U.S. public tuition and financial aid policies are actually more generous to low‐income youth than are Canadian policies. Equalizing these policies across Canada and the U.S. would likely lead to a greater difference in income‐attendance gradients.     

FISCAL STRUCTURAL REFORM AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: PUBLIC SPENDING AND PRIVATE EFFORT*

This paper explores governments' and private agents' incentives to implement or postpone fiscal structural reform attempts. Both fiscal consolidation and fiscal reorganization often create spillover effects and thereby induce free‐riding problems. It is thus important to cope with the free‐riding behaviour of interest groups. It is often argued that in order to attain successful outcomes, a good macroeconomic situation is needed, since we expect positive income effects. In this paper, we first explain the dynamic aspects of insufficient fiscal consolidation due to free‐riding problems in the framework of private provision of public goods. Then, using a static model between central and local governments, we examine the sign of income effects for reform attempts to pursue fiscal reorganization. It is shown that good economic circumstances do not necessarily enhance reform of reorganizing fiscal expenditures, although it could enhance fiscal reconstruction.     

Dividend Taxes and Income Shifting

In this paper, we analyze whether a dividend tax cut for owner‐managers of closely held corporations encourages income shifting, income generation, or both. We use rich Swedish administrative micro data from 2000 to 2011 comprising detailed firm‐ and individual‐level information. We find robust evidence of extensive income shifting across tax bases in response to the 2006 Swedish dividend tax cut. Owner‐managers of closely held corporations reclassify earned income as dividend income but do not increase total income. The response is more pronounced for owner‐managers with tax incentives and with easier access to income shifting through a high ownership share.     

Does energy‐related aid affect emissions? Evidence from a global dataset

Donor countries have been using international aid in the field of energy for at least three decades. The stated objective of this policy is to reduce emissions and promote sustainable development in the global South. In spite of the widespread use of this policy tool, very little is known about its effect on emissions. In this paper we perform an empirical audit of the effectiveness of energy‐related aid in tackling CO₂ and SO₂ emissions. Using a global panel dataset covering 128 countries over the period 1971–2011 and estimating a parsimonious model using the Anderson and Hsiao estimator, we do not find any evidence of a systematic effect of energy‐related aid on emissions. We also find that the non‐effect is not conditional on institutional quality or level of income. Countries located in Europe and Central Asia do better than others in utilizing this aid to reduce CO₂ emissions. Our results are robust after controlling for the environmental Kuznets curve, country fixed effects, country‐specific trends, and time‐varying common shocks.     

What determines foreign aid? The donors' perspective

This paper examines the factors affecting the support for foreign aid among voters in donor countries. A simple theoretical model, which considers an endogenous determination of official and private aid flows, relates individual income to aid support and also suggests that government efficiency is an important factor in this regard. The empirical analysis of individual attitudes, based on the World Values Surveys, reveals that satisfaction with own government performance and individual relative income are positively related to the willingness to provide foreign aid. Furthermore, using actual donor country data we find that aid is adversely affected by own government inefficiency.     

Foreign Capital in a Growth Model

Within the mechanism of endogenous growth, this paper empirically investigates the impact of financial capital on economic growth for a panel of 60 developing countries, through the channel of domestic capital formation. By estimating the model for different income groups, it is found that while private FDI flows exert beneficial complementarity effects on the domestic capital formation across all income‐group countries, the official financial flows contribute to increasing investment in the middle income economies, but not in the low income countries. The latter appears to demonstrate that the aid‐growth nexus is supported in the middle income countries, whereas the misallocation of official inflows is more likely to exist in the low income countries, suggesting that aid effectiveness remains conditional on the domestic policy environment.     

Identifying Laffer Bounds: A Sufficient‐Statistics Approach with an Application to Germany

We derive a simple sufficient‐statistics test for whether a nonlinear tax‐transfer system is second‐best Pareto efficient. If it is not, then it is beyond the top of the Laffer curve and there exists a tax cut that is self‐financing. The test depends on the income distribution, extensive and intensive labor supply elasticities, and income effect parameters. A tax‐transfer system is likely to be inefficient if marginal tax rates are quickly falling in income. We apply this test to the German tax‐transfer system, and we find that the structure of effective marginal tax rates is likely to be inefficient in the region where transfers are phased out.     

The health implications of social pensions: Evidence from China's new rural pension scheme

This paper estimates the causal effect of income on health outcomes of the elderly and investigates underlying mechanisms by exploiting an income change induced by the launch of China's New Rural Pension scheme (NRPS). Using this policy experiment, we address the endogeneity of pension income by applying a fixed-effect model with instrumental variable correction. The results reveal that pension enrollment and income from the NRPS both have had a significant beneficial impact on objective measures of physical health and cognitive function of the rural elderly. Pension recipients respond to the newly acquired pension income in multiple ways: improved nutrition intake, better accessibility to health care, increased informal care, increased leisure activities, and better self-perceived relative economic situation. These in turn act as channels from pension income to health outcomes of the Chinese rural elderly.     

Shifting Taxes from Labor to Consumption: More Employment and more Inequality?

This paper investigates the effect of shifting taxes from labor income to consumption on labor supply and the distribution of income in Germany. We simulate stepwise increases in the value‐added tax (VAT) rate, which are compensated by revenue‐neutral reductions in income‐related taxes. We differentiate between the personal income tax (PIT) and social security contributions (SSC). Based on a dual data base and a microsimulation model of household labor supply behavior, we find a regressive impact of such a tax shift in the short run. When accounting for labor supply adjustments, the adverse distributional impact persists for PIT reductions, while the overall effects on inequality and progressivity become lower when payroll taxes are reduced. This is partly due to increases in aggregate labor supply, resulting from higher work incentives.     

Foreign Aid,Government Spending,and the Environment

Using an endogenous growth model, this paper examines the growth and welfare effects of the allocation of foreign aid in the recipient economy. As public inputs are a productive factor, a rise in the allocation of aid to the public inputs increases growth and hence the welfare of the economy. However, raising the ratio of aid to pollution abatement may not help an economy, because it crowds out public inputs. Since public inputs are also partly financed by income taxation, the welfare‐maximizing income tax rate is larger than the growth‐maximizing rate, because a portion of the aid constitutes a lump‐sum transfer and can increase household consumption and hence welfare.     

Does foreign aid really raise per capita income? A time series perspective

Abstract. We analyze the relationship between per capita income and foreign aid. We employ annual data and five‐year averages and carefully examine the time‐series properties of the data. Panel estimations with dynamic feasible generalized least‐squares (DFGLS) show that aid generally has an insignificant or minute negative significant impact on per capita income (particularly in highly aid‐dependent countries). This holds true for countries with different levels of human development and income, as well as for different regions. We also find that aid has a small positive impact on investment, but a significant negative impact on domestic savings (crowding out) and the real exchange rate (appreciation). JEL classification: F35, O11, C23, C51     

The United States’ higher education antitrust exemption and college enrollment

This study examines the effect of the higher education antitrust exemption on enrollment of financial aid applicants at highly selective private colleges. The antitrust exemption, used since 2002, was extended to 2022 by the U.S. Congress in 2015, allowing colleges with need-blind admission policy to use common standards without discussing or comparing individual awards. Our findings, which are contrary to earlier studies, suggest that the likelihood of enrollment at the colleges implementing the antitrust exemption increased compared to those that did not. Concerns about the adverse effect of the exemption on enrollment, therefore, seems to be unwarranted. Moreover, the common standards used by need-blind colleges do not seem to increase college access for low income students. These findings can be useful to policy makers who soon have to consider extending the exception beyond 2022.     

Transfers in the gravity equation

This study integrates development aid into a theoretically founded structural gravity model that considers primary and secondary effects of aid as an income transfer and as a bilateral trade cost determinant. We identify the parameters of our model using a two‐stage approach that includes a state‐of‐the‐art Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood gravity estimation for a sample of 132 countries over the period 1995 to 2012. The main findings indicate that bilateral aid only increases bilateral trade for countries that do not have a common language, a past colonial relationship or an RTA. On average, 1 USD of additional foreign aid from all donors increases recipients’ net imports by around 0.36 USD. Our comparative statics indicate that donors experience a reduction in real consumption due to aid and recipients an increase. We also analyze the effect on third countries. The modelling framework also applies to the study of other transfers such as remittances.     

Testing sensitivity of student enrollment with respect to tuition at an institution of higher education

This study was conducted to measure the impact of H-University's (HU's) tuition increases on enrollment. Based on an internal survey, this study attempts to explain the sensitivity of student enrollment to tuition variations. In addition, this paper develops an aggregate enrollment model and uses the common economic variables such as tuition, income, wage rates, financial aids, and unemployment rates to explain the sensitivity of demand. The most significant finding of this study is that tuition consideration seems to have a relatively small effect on students' decisions. Actually, enrollment at HU (a private institution) have increased despite higher tuition rate. Possible justifications could be proposed, such as the necessity of higher education and the fact that higher education is a continued investment in human capital, in which the more relevant decision factor is the corresponding expected rate of return and not just the cost of investment. Presented at the International Atlantic Economic Society's Conference, Vienna, Austria, March 2003.     

The Federal Student Loan Program: Quantitative implications for college enrollment and default rates

I quantify the effects of alternative student loan policies on college enrollment, borrowing behavior, and default rates in a heterogeneous model of life-cycle earnings and human capital accumulation. I find that the combination of learning ability and initial stock of human capital drives the decision to enroll in college, while parental wealth has minimal effects on enrollment. Repayment flexibility increases enrollment significantly, whereas relaxation of eligibility requirements has little effect on enrollment or default rates. The former policy benefits low-income households, while the latter has negligible effects on these households.