PROMETHEUS BOUND: POLARIZATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL

The paper demonstrates that the standard neoclassical model of stochastic growth in the absence of any other modifications is consistent with club convergence contrary to the analysis in Cetorelli (2002, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 27, pp. 29–50). In that sense, it is not necessary to augment the model with a probability of adverse shocks that is inversely related to aggregate capital stock or provide other modifications.     

STABILITY OF THE EXPONENTIAL UTILITY MAXIMIZATION PROBLEM WITH RESPECT TO PREFERENCES

This paper studies stability of the exponential utility maximization when there are small variations on agent's utility function. Two settings are considered. First, in a general semimartingale model where random endowments are present, a sequence of utilities defined on converges to the exponential utility. Under a uniform condition on their marginal utilities, convergence of value functions, optimal payoffs, and optimal investment strategies are obtained, their rate of convergence is also determined. Stability of utility‐based pricing is studied as an application. Second, a sequence of utilities defined on converges to the exponential utility after shifting and scaling. Their associated optimal strategies, after appropriate scaling, converge to the optimal strategy for the exponential hedging problem. This complements Theorem 3.2 in [Nutz, M. (2012): Risk aversion asymptotics for power utility maximization. Probab. Theory & Relat. Fields 152, 703–749], which establishes the convergence for a sequence of power utilities.     

Absolute and Conditional Convergence in Both Zones of Cyprus: Statistical Convergence and Insitutional Divergence

This paper implements a time series econometric model to determine the timing of full convergence of incomes and output per capita and total factor productivity in the North and South of Cyprus, regardless of whether there is a political settlement or not. A significant dimension of the paper is its emphasis on institutional convergence, going beyond econometric or statistical convergence. Our results reveal that North Cyprus needs 17 years to catch up to full per capita income convergence, 16 years for per capita output convergence and 17 years for full total factor productivity (technological) convergence. The time‐series findings demonstrate that statistical convergence is occurring quite rapidly as the North is catching up to the average income and productivity levels of the South, which may confirm evidence of unconditional (beta) or absolute convergence, but there are significant differences between North and South in savings, tastes, population growth and technology. Most significantly, there are institutional differences highlighted in the study with a Two‐sector model of gate‐keeping and rent‐seeking which validates the premises of conditional convergence. Put differently, there are strong forces of divergence hidden behind our statistical findings.     

CONVERGENCE OF BARRIER OPTION PRICES IN THE BINOMIAL MODEL

In this paper, we study the rate of convergence of the European barrier call option price given by the CRR binomial model to the Black–Scholes price as the number of periods n tends to infinity. In general the error is of order and we give explicit formulas for the coefficients of and 1/n in the asymptotic expansion of the error. These coefficients depend on the positions of the barrier and strike in the binomial lattice and enable us to give a rigorous explanation of the observed fact that the error is of order 1/n when n is chosen in an appropriate way.     

From Discrete- to Continuous-Time Finance: Weak Convergence of the Financial Gain Process1

Conditions suitable for applications in finance are given for the weak convergence (or convergence in probability) of stochastic integrals. For example, consider a sequence Sⁿ of security price processes converging in distribution to S and a sequence θⁿ of trading strategies converging in distribution to θ. We survey conditions under which the financial gain process θⁿ dSⁿ converges in distribution to θ dS. Examples include convergence from discrete- to continuous-time settings and, in particular, generalizations of the convergence of binomial option replication models to the Black-Scholes model. Counterexamples are also provided.     

Globalization,regionalization and convergence in East Asia

This research paper reports the result of an investigation into the pattern of income convergence in East Asia since 1970 and the proximate role of increased regionalization and inter-regional globalization in generating regional convergence or divergence. Specifically, we apply sigma and log t convergence tests for income convergence in the East Asian region and an augmented autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to analyze the relationship between regional income dispersion and intra- and extra-regional flows of goods, capital and technology. Regardless of the measure of per capita income, the sigma convergence tests fail to find any evidence of intra-regional convergence. The log t convergence tests do not indicate overall convergence either, but, indicate the existence of convergence clubs within the region. The regression analysis suggests that intra-regional flows of capital and technology and extra- regional FDI flows unambiguously engender convergence while intra-regional trade flows and extra-regional exports have divergence effects.     

On the rate of convergence of binomial Greeks

This study investigates the convergence patterns and the rates of convergence of binomial Greeks for the CRR model and several smooth price convergence models in the literature, including the binomial Black–Scholes (BBS) model of Broadie M and Detemple J ( 1996 ), the flexible binomial model (FB) of Tian YS ( 1999 ), the smoothed payoff (SPF) approach of Heston S and Zhou G ( 2000 ), the GCRR‐XPC models of Chung SL and Shih PT ( 2007 ), the modified FB‐XPC model, and the modified GCRR‐FT model. We prove that the rate of convergence of the CRR model for computing deltas and gammas is of order O(1/n), with a quadratic error term relating to the position of the final nodes around the strike price. Moreover, most smooth price convergence models generate deltas and gammas with monotonic and smooth convergence with order O(1/n). Thus, one can apply an extrapolation formula to enhance their accuracy. The numerical results show that placing the strike price at the center of the tree seems to enhance the accuracy substantially. Among all the binomial models considered in this study, the FB‐XPC and the GCRR‐XPC model with a two‐point extrapolation are the most efficient methods to compute Greeks. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

How FTAs Affect Income Levels of Member Countries

The purpose of this paper is to analyse whether FTAs cause the income levels of member economies to converge or diverge. Although existing studies predict the possibility of convergence among FTA members to a certain degree, they fail to provide definitive evidence. By using the concept of accelerating convergence, this study aims to estimate the pure convergence effects of FTAs, separate from the conventional notion of income convergence, so‐called β‐convergence. The neoclassical model of economic growth has been extended to incorporate varying steady states for an open‐economy framework. Applying the system GMM method to a dynamic panel of data consisting of major FTAs – comprising the European Union, NAFTA, Mercosur and AFTA, and encompassing the cases of launching an FTA, expanding membership or deepening FTA integration – we find considerable evidence for the income convergence effect of FTAs.     

Does host market regulation induce cross‐border environmental innovation?

This paper evaluates the effect of host‐country environmental policy stringency on the offshoring of green patents for 2000 top world R&D performers. It is shown that a more stringent environmental regulation triggers patent offshoring in the field of green technologies. Results are robust to various different specifications, to alternative definitions of innovation offshoring and of regulatory restrictions, to controls for firm and country‐level characteristics and to the consideration of possible endogeneity of regulation. We interpret these findings as evidence that MNEs can take advantage from their exposure to multiple institutional settings, reducing the costs of, and increasing the payoff from, green innovation offshoring. It is also suggested that R&D subsidies and non‐market‐based regulatory measures are more important than market‐based instruments as drivers of cross‐border environmental innovation.     

On Income Convergence among China,Hong Kong and Macau

Hong Kong and Macau were reunited with China in the late 1990s as two special administrative regions (SARs). Over the last half century, they were China's good examples of economic development, windows of openness and investors. Owing to historical reasons, China lagged far behind Hong Kong and Macau in terms of per capita incomes. However, rapid economic growth in China over the last three decades must have brought about a significant convergence of the three economies. China's economic success has benefited from the integration of its two SARs and the coastal provinces, especially Guangdong, in terms of technological spillover, massive investment and trade. The economic trickledown, direct investment and trade must have been important drivers of economic integration and income convergence. This paper aims to analyse the trend and studies the determinants of income convergence between China and its two SARs. Both parametric and non‐parametric techniques are employed to quantify the pace of convergence on per capita incomes in Hong Kong, Macau and the Chinese provinces over a period of more than 40 years. We find no evidence of convergence in the pre‐reform period, but strong evidence of both absolute and conditional β‐convergence in the post‐reform period. Over the reform period, the pace of convergence is less than 1 per cent per annum without controlling for trade and more than 2 per cent conditional on trade.     

Brexit and its economic consequences

As the formal process of Brexit has already started, there is much uncertainty about Brexit's impacts on Britain's social, political and economic future. This paper examines the economic impact. After briefly discussing some significant EU treaties that serve as the background materials, it presents the key arguments advocated by the leave and remain camps. The economic impact depends critically on the negotiation outcomes. Aside from the debate on the divorce costs, there are numerous issues that must be negotiated, such as immigration, trade in goods, services, agriculture, fisheries and financial regulations. We discuss various scenarios of possible new trade regimes, resulting in different impacts on the UK economy. With each side having its bargaining chips to play, the trade‐offs between “give and take” in the negotiation game are analysed. Considering various strategic options, this paper urges rationality and cooperation, especially weighing both sides’ entwined economic interests, in addition to their mutual security, defence, environmental and world concerns. The potential gains and losses in the event where the UK contemplates new trade arrangements with the non‐EU countries are analysed in the Appendix .     

Real Output Convergence and Trade Openness: Fuzzy Clustering and Time Series Evidence

In the now extensive literature on the convergence of real per capita output across countries over time, there is surprisingly little attention paid to the role of international trade. Some recent studies have illustrated that standard trade theories provide no clear prediction as to the impact of trade liberalization on output convergence. These studies have also provided somewhat ambiguous empirical evidence regarding this relationship, under-scoring the need for additional results in this area. This paper uses both standard and new approaches to testing for convergence in order to explore the extent to which the degree of trade openness may affect output convergence among countries. Using annual time-series data for 88 countries from the Penn World Table, we obtain somewhat mixed results, but on balance they are quite supportive of a positive relationship (though not necessarily causality) between trade openness and output convergence. Our results also suggest certain directions for further research that would shed more light on this important issue.     

ACHIEVING HIGHER ORDER CONVERGENCE FOR THE PRICES OF EUROPEAN OPTIONS IN BINOMIAL TREES

A new family of binomial trees as approximations to the Black–Scholes model is introduced. For this class of trees, the existence of complete asymptotic expansions for the prices of vanilla European options is demonstrated and the first three terms are explicitly computed. As special cases, a tree with third-order convergence is constructed and the conjecture of Leisen and Reimer that their tree has second-order convergence is proven.     

ON THE MARTINGALE PROPERTY IN STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS BASED ON TIME‐HOMOGENEOUS DIFFUSIONS

Lions and Musiela give sufficient conditions to verify when a stochastic exponential of a continuous local martingale is a martingale or a uniformly integrable martingale. Blei and Engelbert and Mijatovi? and Urusov give necessary and sufficient conditions in the case of perfect correlation (). For financial applications, such as checking the martingale property of the stock price process in correlated stochastic volatility models, we extend their work to the arbitrary correlation case (). We give a complete classification of the convergence properties of both perpetual and capped integral functionals of time‐homogeneous diffusions and generalize results in Mijatovi? and Urusov with direct proofs avoiding the use of separating times (concept introduced by Cherny and Urusov and extensively used in the proofs of Mijatovi? and Urusov).     

How social influence affects consumption trends in emerging markets: An empirical investigation of the consumption convergence hypothesis

The authors empirically test the veracity of the consumption convergence hypothesis for emerging markets (EMs): the hypothesis that through social influences on individual consumers resulting from global integration, and exposure to the United States (U.S.), consumption levels in EMs converge toward U.S. consumption levels. Drawing upon psychological theories of social influence, and using national per capita consumption data from 22 major EMs and the U.S., the authors find strong empirical support for consumption convergence for both, the aggregate consumption level of EMs, as well as for soft‐drink consumption therein. After controlling for income and price levels, the results show that global integration and exposure to the U.S. each increase the EM's consumption convergence. The authors also find that degree of global integration interacts with specific exposure to the U.S., accelerating consumption convergence of EMs. Theoretical and practical implications of the results are considered, and future research opportunities are discussed. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

ON THE ERROR IN THE MONTE CARLO PRICING OF SOME FAMILIAR EUROPEAN PATH-DEPENDENT OPTIONS

This paper studies the relative error in the crude Monte Carlo pricing of some familiar European path-dependent multiasset options. For the crude Monte Carlo method it is well known that the convergence rate   O ( n ^−1/2)  , where n is the number of simulations, is independent of the dimension of the integral. This paper also shows that for a large class of pricing problems in the multiasset Black-Scholes market the constant in   O ( n ^−1/2)  is independent of the dimension. To be more specific, the constant is only dependent on the highest volatility among the underlying assets, time to maturity, and degree of confidence interval.     

DISPELLING THE MYSTERY ABOUT THE JAPANESE ECONOMY

JAPAN'S ECONOMIC POLICY INDUSTRY AND BUSINESS IN JAPAN THE NEW INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER: A US RESPONSE THE FINANCING PROCEDURES OF BRITISH FOREIGN TRADE THE USSR'S MANAGEMENT OF FOREIGN TRADE FREE TO CHOOSE: A PERSONAL STATEMENT BALANCE OF PAYMENTS THEORY AND THE UNITED KINGDOM EXPERIENCE MONEY IN INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGE: THE CONVERTIBLE CURRENCY SYSTEM MIDDLE EAST INDUSTRIALISATION: A STUDY OF SAUDI AND IRANIAN DOWNSTREAM INVESTMENTS SUBSTITUTION EFFECTS, SPECULATION AND EXCHANGE-RATE STABILITY CAPITAL MARKETS AND INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT IN GERMANY AND FRANCE: LESSONS FOR THE UK     

Why price‐level dispersion went up in Europe after the financial crisis

Persistent price differences across euro area countries are an indication of incomplete economic integration. We analyse long‐ and short‐run developments of price‐level dispersion in the euro area and compare the results with price dispersion across US cities. We find that monetary and economic integration in Europe has been successful in establishing a major downward trend in price‐level differences across countries since 1960. After the Global Financial Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, diverging economic conditions across euro area countries led to higher income dispersion, which contributed to a widening of price‐level differences again.     

Types of liquidity and limits to arbitrage—the case of credit default swaps

Using a sample of Credit Default Swap (CDS) prices and corresponding reference corporate bond yield spreads for the period June 2008 to September 2009, we show that funding liquidity (shadow cost of capital for arbitrageurs) as well as asset‐specific liquidity (determinants of margin requirements) explain recent deviations in the arbitrage‐based parity relationship between the CDS prices and bond yield spreads (CDS‐Bond spread basis). Collectively, our analysis corroborates the theory on the determinants of the basis, and suggests that it is important to distinguish between these types of liquidity in determining the circumstances in which relative prices will converge. Median annualized returns for a sample convergence type trading strategy with typical levels of leverage are 80% with a median holding‐period of 127 days, but the path to convergence is not smooth. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

GEOMETRICAL TRIPARTITION OF THE TOTAL EFFECT ON CAPITAL OF A CHANGE IN THE PROFIT RATE (THE DISCRETE CASE)

The author shows that the effect on the product-capital ratio of an increase in the profit rate from below to above the rate that marks the switching from technique I to technique 11 can be geometrically split up into i) two price effects resulting from price changes within each technique and ii) an intermediate real effect, in general well-behaved, consequent to the switching from the first to the second technique. The product-capital ratios can be correctly determined, and are as such “invariant” with respect to the numéraire chosen, only if derived from wage curves that are constructed by assuming as numéraire a basket whose composition is the same as the net product. This does not invalidate the proposition that the capital-product ratio, conceived as the value of capital per physical basket of product, and its response to a rise in the profit rate vary with the numéraire chosen.