Does the Capitalization of Development Costs Improve Analyst Forecast Accuracy? Evidence from the UK

It has been documented that investments in Research and Development (R&D) are associated with increased errors and inaccuracy in earnings forecasts made by financial analysts. These deficiencies have been generally attributed to information complexity and the uncertainty of the future benefits of R&D. This paper examines whether the capitalization of development costs can reduce analyst uncertainty about the future economic outcome of R&D investments, provide outsiders with a better matching of future R&D‐related revenues and costs, and therefore promote accuracy in analyst forecasts. UK data is used, because accounting rules in the United Kingdom permitted firms to conditionally capitalize development costs even before the introduction of the International Financial Reporting Standards. The choice to expense R&D rather than conditionally capitalize development costs is found to relate positively to signed analyst forecast errors. This finding is robust to controlling for the influence of other factors that may affect errors, as well as for the influence of R&D investments on forecast errors. The decision to capitalize versus expense is not observed to have a significant influence on analyst forecast revisions. The findings are interpreted as evidence that the choice to capitalize as opposed to expense may help to reduce deficiencies in analyst forecasts; hence, is informative for users of financial statements. Increased informativeness is expected to have repercussions for the effectiveness with which analysts produce earnings forecasts, and, as a result, market efficiency.     

Has the Bank Done Enough to Contain Inflation?

In this article James Nixon urges the Monetary Policy Committee to pay attention to the longer term fundamentals driving the UK economy when setting interest rates. While current demand pressures may produce an inflationary ‘blip’, too myopic a focus on the UK's short term prospects may prompt a significant slowdown in 1998. This in turn would spell an unnecessary increase in unemployment, curtailed investment plans and a reduction in the economy's future growth prospects.     

Does Repeated Measurement Improve Income Data Quality?

This paper exploits a natural experiment created by a survey design to show that the quality of income data systematically changes across waves of a panel. We estimate that the effect of being interviewed for a second time, relative to the first, is to increase mean monthly income by 8%. Dependent interviewing – a recall device commonly used in panel surveys – explains one third of the observed increase. The remaining share is attributed to changes in respondent behaviour (panel conditioning). We review the evidence for and against a reporting improvement vs. a behavioural response by survey participants.     

Does Output Gap,Labour's Share or Unemployment Rate Drive Inflation?

We propose a new methodology for ranking in probability the commonly proposed drivers of inflation in the new Keynesian model. The approach is based on Bayesian model selection among restricted vector autoregressive (VAR) models, each of which embodies only one or none of the candidate variables as the driver. Simulation experiments suggest that our procedure is superior to the previously used conventional pairwise Granger causality tests in detecting the true driver. Empirical results lend little support to labour share, output gap or unemployment rate as the driver of US inflation.     

How Does Education Affect the Earnings Distribution in Urban China?*

It is widely believed that investing in education could be an effective strategy to promote higher standards of living and equity. We empirically assess this claim by estimating returns to education across the whole earnings distribution in urban China and find supporting evidence. In particular, we find that returns to education are more pronounced for individuals in the lower tail of the distribution than for those in the upper tail and that returns to education are uniformly larger for women than men. We also find that returns to education increased over time across the whole earnings distribution.     

Does Super-Department Reform Improve Public Service Performance in China?

Echoing the global public management reform movement, China’s authorities advocated ‘super-department’ reform (SDR) to curb interdepartmental conflict and administrative inefficiency. However, the related performance consequences have not been empirically investigated. We test the reform’s effects on citizen satisfaction with public services through a natural experiment involving twenty-five counties in Guangdong province (2009–2012) and the difference-in-differences method. The results show that the reform has improved public service performance, but its effects are marginal and unsustainable. We discuss the theoretical contributions and policy implications of the findings and identify future research avenues.     

Why Does Growing up in an Intact Family during Childhood Lead to Higher Earnings during Adulthood in the United States?*

With a view to finding an explanation of the observed differences in adult annual earnings between workers raised in intact (INTACT) and non‐intact families in the US labor market, this study tests two hypotheses. First, workers growing up in intact families during childhood earn more during their adulthood because they acquire more years of schooling, which in turn affect their wages positively. Second, intact family background acts as an instrument for numerous factors that contribute to workers' happiness during adulthood. Since happier workers, with other characteristics held constant, are known to have higher earnings, workers raised in intact families during childhood by leading a relatively happier life during their adulthood earn more than their otherwise identical non‐intact counterparts. Both these hypotheses find strong support from the US data. The evidence of simultaneous relationships between wage and happiness and between happiness and schooling confirms that the true effect of INTACT on wage may be much larger than what is envisaged by a simple one‐step process. Regardless of whether this relationship is due to causation or correlation, the study simply demonstrates that the US evidence of higher earnings associated with workers raised in intact families may be attributed partly to their higher levels of schooling and happier lives. By demonstrating a significant positive relationship between the stability of parental family structure during childhood and earnings during adulthood, the current study highlights the importance of responsible parenthood as a means of improving the child's future economic performance.