Pension design when fertility fluctuates: The role of education and capital mobility

This study compares alternative designs of an unfunded pension system. Convex combinations between a fixed contribution rate and a fixed benefit rate are considered. The objective is to maximize the expected ex ante welfare under stochastic fertility. The model is a three-period CGE framework where the financing of education and effects on factor prices are accounted for. Factor prices depend on the degree of capital mobility. For low degrees of capital mobility, it is optimal to have a fixed benefit rate in the pension system. But for the small open economy, a fixed contribution rate is optimal if the education system has a fixed benefit rate. In this case individuals in the small open economy are unaffected by fertility fluctuations.     

Moore's Law and Learning by Doing

We model Moore's law as efficiency of computer producers that rises as a by-product of their experience. We find the following: (1) Because computer prices fall much faster than the prices of electricity-driven and diesel-driven capital ever did, growth in the coming decades should be very fast. (2) The obsolescence of firms today occurs faster than before, partly because the physical capital they own becomes obsolete faster. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: O3.     

Growth with many agents and wages paid ex ante

In this paper, we consider a one-sector model of economic growth with several infinitely-lived heterogeneous agents, who are endowed with diverse discount factors as well as preferences over consumption. In line with the classical Ramsey model, agents are not allowed to borrow against future income. Unlike the traditional assumption of ex post wage payment, wages are paid ex ante in our model. We first explain the difference between the assumptions of wages being paid ex ante and wages being paid ex post in the framework of a simple illustrative two-class model. Our main result shows that in contrast to the many-agent Ramsey model with ex post wage payment, the capital stock sequence converges to the steady state stock irrespective of production technology employed by the firms. Further, all impatient agents own zero capital stock, whereas the most patient agent owns the entire capital stock from some time onward. Thus, we have shown that a slight modification in the timing of wage payment in growth models can lead to significant changes in the stability properties of equilibrium dynamics.     

Relative prices and real factor rewards: A reinterpretation

Two devices are generally available to increase the reward of a productive factor: (i) a direct subsidy to the factor, and (ii) an alteration in relative commodity prices. The Stolper-Samuelson result, whereby method (ii) suffices to improve the real reward of a productive factor in a 2×2 setting with no joint production is shown to be valid in the n-commodity, n-factor model.     

A multi-region model of economic growth with human capital and negative externalities in innovation

We use a multi-region model and provide the first theoretical analysis of the effects of human capital use and a particular kind of innovative activity on economic growth. In each of the N heterogeneous regions in our model, consumers have constant relative risk aversion preferences, there are negative externalities in innovation, and there are three kinds of manufacturing activities involving the production of blueprints for inputs or machines, the inputs or machines themselves, and a single final good for consumption. Our analysis generates four salient findings. First, for each of the N regions, we define a balanced growth path equilibrium, we characterize the market clearing factor prices, and we determine the free entry condition in the R&D sector. Second, we show that without growth in human capital, there is no sustained economic growth in any of the N regions. Third, we show that human capital growth generates sustained economic growth in each of the N regions. Finally, when discussing the above three findings, we shed light on the spatial dimensions of economic growth in our multi-region aggregate economy.     

Wage inequality,segregation by skill and the price of capital in an assignment model

Some pieces of empirical evidence suggest that in the U.S., from the 1970s to the 1990s, (i) wage inequality between-plants rose much more than wage inequality within-plants and (ii) there was an increase in the segregation of workers by skill into separate plants. This paper presents a frictionless assignment model in which these two features can be explained simultaneously as the result of the decline in the relative price of capital. Additional implications of the model regarding the skill premium and the dispersion in labor productivity across plants are also consistent with the empirical evidence. The model permits to consider changes in the skill distribution too. Combining these changes with falling capital prices provides a more comprehensive view of the overall trend of wage inequality and of workers' segregation by skill in the data, and it helps explaining some episodes of decreasing wage inequality.     

Energienachfrage und Potential Output in Gesamtwirtschaft und Industrie

Summary The purpose of this article is to estimate the effects of the quadrupling of oil prices at the end of 1973 on potential output of the Austrian economy as a whole and of manufacturing in particular. The hypothesis is tested that the increase of relative energy prices (energy prices relative to domestic prices) makes previous measures of potential output obsolete. Using dynamic Cobb-Douglas type production functions for estimating potential output leads to the following results. If energy is implemented in the production function (either directly as a third factor in addition to capital and labour or indirectly via relative energy prices) there is strong evidence that part of the prerecession potential output has become obsolete in the recession of 1975. A comparison with an estimated potential output which doesn't take into account energy as a factor of production indicates that such a procedure could lead to wrong policy conclusions.

---

---

Empirica 2'78 Zeitschrift des Österreichischen Institutes für Wirtschaftsforschung

---

Für wertvolle Anregungen danke ich den Universitätsprofessoren Dr.E. Streissler und Dr.G. Tichy.     

Taxes on capital in a specific factor model with international capital mobility

The efficiency and distributional effects of sundry capital taxes are analyzed in a simple two-sector specific factor model where capital is mobile both between the two sectors and between the home country and the rest of the world. Two cases are discussed: the small country case where factor and commodity prices are parametric; and the large country case. The optimal tax on capital export is illustrated when commodity prices are parametric. A simple approach to the case when both factor and commodity prices are variable is demonstrated.     

The role of social capital in the labour market in China1

Social capital is considered to play an economic role in labour markets. It may be particularly pertinent in one that is in transition from an administered to a market‐oriented system. One factor that may determine success in the underdeveloped Chinese labour market is thus guanxi, the Chinese variant of social capital. With individual‐level measures of social capital, we test for the role of guanxi using a dataset designed for this purpose, covering 7,500 urban workers and conducted in early 2000. The evidence is consistent with the basic hypothesis. Both measures of social capital – size of social network and Communist Party membership – have significant and substantial coefficients in the income functions. Social capital can have influence either in an administered system or in one subject to market forces. It appears to do so in both parts of the labour market.     

Buyer search and price dispersion: a laboratory study

We study markets with costly buyer search in which sellers simultaneously post prices. Buyers costlessly observe one or (with probability 1−q) two of the posted prices, and can accept one or pay to search again. The experiment varies q, the search cost, and the number of buyers. Equilibrium theory predicts a unified very low (high) price for q=0 (q=1) and predicts specific distributions of dispersed prices for q=1/3 and 2/3. Actual prices conform closely to the predictions in some treatments. Buyers’ reservation prices are biased away from the extremes, however, and sellers’ prices have positive autocorrelation and cross-sectional correlation.     

Violence exposure and poverty: Evidence from the Burundi civil war

We investigate the relationship between exposure to the Burundi Civil War and household (food) poverty, using a three-wave household-level panel matched with data on local-level violence. We find that households living in localities exposed to the war have been subsequently more likely to be poor than non-exposed households. Within-household estimations, controlling for time-varying heterogeneity at the province level, confirm the positive impact of violence exposure on household poverty. We investigate some of the potential mechanisms at play in the violence – poverty nexus, and the role of violence exposure in household poverty dynamics over time. Our results notably suggest that the destruction of physical capital, as well as a shift of exposed households out of non-farm activities, shape poverty dynamics and lower their chances of durably remaining out of poverty.     

Firm-specific capital, nominal rigidities, and the Taylor principle

In the presence of firm-specific capital the Taylor principle can generate multiple equilibria. Sveen and Weinke [New perspectives on capital, sticky prices, and the Taylor principle, J. Econ. Theory 123 (2005) 21-39] obtain that result in the context of a Calvo-style sticky price model. One potential criticism is that the price stickiness which is needed for our theoretical result to be relevant from a practical point of view is somewhat to the high part of available empirical estimates. In the present paper we show that if nominal wages are not fully flexible (which is an uncontroversial empirical fact) then the Taylor principle fails already for some minor degree of price stickiness. We use our model to explain the consequences of both nominal rigidities for the desirability of alternative interest rate rules.     

Factor analysis of demand growth for information technology input in Japan

The purpose of this article is to decompose demand changes for factor input and explore the factor that information technology (IT) capital stock has largely increased in Japan. The Allen partial elasticities of substitution are calculated and the variations in factor input demand are broken down into two effects—price effect and output effect, using industry-level data. From an estimation of the total cost function, the following conclusions are presented. While IT capital stock and ordinary capital stock are complementary, IT serves as a substitute for labor. The factors influencing the high growth rate in IT capital stock are the decrease in the prices of IT and ordinary capital services, and the increase in the labor price, in addition to the output effect. On the other hand, labor demand declines due to both the downward rigidity of wages and the decrease in prices of two kinds of capital services.     

The effects of rising labour costs on global supply chains: the case of China’s cotton yarn industry

Rapid economic growth in China and India has resulted in rapidly rising labour costs in those countries. In this study a Muth-type model is used to assess the potential effects of this development on global supply chains using China’s cotton yarn industry as a case study. The model considers i) product differentiation at the yarn level; ii) imperfect competition in the markets for cotton yarn and raw cotton fibre, iii) input substitution between raw cotton fibre, labour, and capital; and iv) offsetting increases in the demand for cotton yarn caused by rising consumer income. Results suggest the effects of rising labour costs on the supply chain are modest, and easily swamped or obscured by the effects of rising income. Increases in industry market power (both oligopoly and oligopsony) have the same effect on the supply chain as increases in labour costs, raising prices to consumers of cotton yarn, and lowering prices to input suppliers, including foreign suppliers of raw cotton fibre. The combined effects of increases in labour costs and income have increased the factor shares for labour and to a lesser extent capital at the expense of raw cotton fibre.     

Tax incidence,majority voting and capital market integration

We re-examine, from a political economy perspective, the standard view that higher capital mobility results in lower capital taxes — a view, in fact, that is not confirmed by the available empirical evidence. We show that when a small economy is opened to capital mobility, the change of incidence of a tax on capital–from capital owners to owners of the immobile factor–may interact in such a way with political decision-making so as to cause a rise in the equilibrium tax. This can happen whether or not the immobile factor (labour) can be taxed, and whether or not savings can be subsided under capital mobility.     

Heterogeneous capital and misintermediation

A perennial problem of financial markets is that of maturity mismatch, or misintermediation, a situation in which financial intermediaries fund long-term, illiquid loans with short-term liabilities. A previous theory concludes that misintermediation can be responsible for business cycles and yields procyclical behavior of surprises in real interest rates. This paper proposes a finite horizon structural model with the introduction of heterogeneous capital to formalize and develop that theory. An extended model with labor as well as a “harvesting” technology further investigates the impact of misintermediation on real factor prices. The model implied relationship between unanticipated changes in real interest rates and real outputs over time is examined in a subsequent empirical study, which provides preliminary evidence consistent with the hypothesis of misintermediation.     

Colombian international trade from a physical perspective: Towards an ecological “Prebisch thesis”

Prebisch's approach to economic development was based on the notion that there is an international historical division of labour. Peripheral countries are specialised in exporting primary goods while Centre countries export industrial goods. The Terms of Trade for peripheral countries tend to deteriorate. This approach can be extended to ecological issues. The international Centre–Periphery division does not only involve the monetary exchange of goods and capital, but also the physical exchange in which Southern countries provide materials and energy so that Northern countries can develop their socioeconomic metabolism. This metabolic process is guaranteed through cheap prices for primary goods. This paper aims to apply and extend Prebisch's thought on unequal exchange, both monetary and ecological, in relation to Colombian trade in the period 1970–2002, using Material Flow Analysis.     

The creative class, its preferences, and unbalanced growth in an urban economy

We theoretically analyze unbalanced growth in an urban economy arising from the preferences of the creative class concerning the relative desirability of agricultural, manufacturing, and service goods. We study two cases. In the first case, the production functions for the three categories of goods are identical. Our analysis leads to four results. First, we compute the equilibrium physical to creative capital ratios and the relationships between the neutral productivity shifters and the output prices. Second, we show that agricultural and services consumption are a constant multiple of manufacturing consumption. Third, we note that under certain conditions, an equilibrium in which all sectors of our urban economy grow at a constant rate does not exist. Fourth, we show that a constant growth path (CGP) equilibrium exists in which, across the three sectors, the pattern of consumption changes and there is a reallocation of creative capital. In the second case, the production functions for the three categories of goods are dissimilar. In this more realistic setting, we study generalizations of the previously described four results.     

Causality between money and prices in Indonesia

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between money supply and prices in Indonesia, where money supply is taken to be the stock of narrow money (currency + demand deposits) and prices are proxied by the Jakarta cost of living index. The period studied is 1969–1980. Two concepts of causality namely “proper” causality in which the causal effect takes at least one quarter to manifest itself and “instantaneous” causality in which there are no lags, are employed. The hypothesis of “proper” causality is rejected by bothGranger andSims tests. However, the hypothesis that money and prices are contemporaneously correlated cannot be easily dismissed. Using the framework of [Geweke], contemporaneous causality is treated as a part of linear feedback and the lagged version of Sims test was used. We found that the hypothesis that prices cause money supply cannot be dismissed on the basis of Wald test. However, the contribution of instantaneous causality is very large to the total variance of linear feedback.