基于决策树的土地适宜性评价

在探讨应用空间数据挖掘的决策树方法于土地适宜性评价的研究思路后,以琼海市的3个乡镇作为试验区,选取了8个指标(影响因子)作为测试属性,共提取了67个样本,运用C4.5算法构建土地适宜性评价决策树并进行了分析,表明所得规则符合实际且易于理解.然后运用规则对试验区土地进行评价,并与应用其它评价方法所得结果作对比分析.结果表明:基于决策树的土地适宜性评价方法不依赖于经验知识,得到的评价结果具有较高准确率,能够满足评价的要求.     

生态调节服务产品价值实现的适宜性评价及模式分区 ——以浙江省丽水市为例

研究目的：针对生态调节服务产品价值实现的难点问题,提出生态产品价值实现的适宜性评价技术,为生态产品价值实现模式在国土空间落地提供决策支持。研究方法：利用过程模型方法评价生态调节服务产品的空间分布格局,采用适宜性评价技术分析生态产品开发的适宜性。研究结果：（1）提出了“生态系统服务分类—价值实现途径—适宜性分区”生态产品价值实现的分析框架;（2）从生态系统服务、土地利用和限制因子3个方面建立了生态产品价值实现的适宜性评价指标体系;（3）定量评价了丽水市固碳、释氧、水源涵养、水土保持、污染去除、负氧离子释放、降温调节、增湿调节8种调节服务产品的空间分布格局,生态系统服务表现出空间集聚特征;（4）丽水市生态农业、生态工业、生态康养和生态补偿4种价值实现模式分区面积分别占58%、8%、13%和21%。研究结论：生态调节产品价值实现的适宜性评价和模式分区,将生态产品价值实现机制落实到国土空间上,可为“两山”转化和高质量发展提供决策参考。     

成都市土地开发整理工程选址决策规则集适宜性评价

研究目的：尝试建立成都市土地开发整理工程选址决策规则集适宜性评价指标体系。研究方法：针对成都市山地平原交错的地貌类型特征,在建立土地开发整理工程选址决策规则集的基础上,构建具有多规则组合模式的评价指标体系,进行成都市土地开发整理工程选址适宜性评价。研究结果：成都市土地开发整理工程划为耕地坡改梯平整区、格田整理区、农田水利工程整治区、农村道路整治区和农村建设用地整治区5个适宜区域。研究结论：采用决策规则集适宜性评价指标体系,能有效提高土地开发整理工程选址的可靠性。     

平谷区城镇建设用地生态经济适宜性评价方法

研究目的:从生态保护和经济发展的角度,研究城镇建设用地的适宜性评价指标体系和评价方法,以期为城市规划和土地利用总体规划的城镇发展用地合理布局和科学评价提供有效范式。研究方法:以GIS栅格技术为支撑,利用多因素加乘复合算法和互斥性矩阵分类方法进行城镇建设用地适宜性评价,利用对比分析法佐证评价方法与结果的有效性和合理性。研究结果:平谷区城镇建设空间布局可优化为优先建设区、适度建设区、控制建设区、适度保护区、重点保护区和禁止建设区,分别占全区总面积的22.97%、12.15%、11.69%、9.93%、12.90%和30.31%;城镇建设用地适宜程度在空间上呈圈层分布特征,由平原向四周的半山区和山区逐渐降低;评价结果与平谷区城市规划成果具有较好的一致性。研究结论:提出的评价方法对城镇建设用地适宜性评价是有效的,评价结果可以为城镇建设用地规划布局提供科学依据。     

基于元胞生态位适宜度模型的低丘缓坡土地开发建设适宜性评价

研究目的：评价低丘缓坡土地开发建设适宜性。研究方法：以GIS为系统环境,通过元胞自动机模拟地理空间过程,“生态位”确定元胞邻域之间的转换规则,构建元胞自动机生态位适宜度模型。研究结果：模型运行得出了安宁市低丘缓坡土地开发建设适宜性的等级图谱,适宜建设区域主要分布在低丘缓坡区域的东北部,模型运行有效。研究结论：元胞生态位适宜度模型运行结果生态意义明确,适用于生态保护为目的的同质性区域建设用地适宜性评价,为评价、优化和编制低丘缓坡专项规划方案奠定了很好基础,也为类似的山地土地利用适宜性评价提供了方法借鉴。     

1980—2017年中国土地资源学发展研究

研究目的：明确土地资源学核心研究内容和学科地位,系统总结1980—2017年中国土地资源学研究的重要进展,划分土地资源学发展的主要阶段及各个阶段重要成果,指出土地资源学未来研究的方向和重点。研究方法：文献计量法。研究结果：中国土地资源学发展可划分为三个阶段：（1）以土地生产力为核心的起步阶段（1980—1999年）,形成了全国和区域尺度的农林牧业适宜性评价与特定作物适宜性评价方法,建立了“中国1∶100万土地资源图”评价体系,提出了城镇土地经济评价和城镇土地分等定级流程,制定了区域土地资源生产力和人口承载力计算方法;（2）以土地可持续利用为核心的上升阶段（2000—2009年）,GIS技术在土地适宜性评价中取得了普遍运用,农用地分等定级研究逐步转向实践,土地可持续利用评级体系初步形成;（3）以土地生态为核心的稳定阶段（2010—2017年）,土地评价已从单纯的资源或经济评价向资源、社会、经济与生态环境的综合评价转变,土地生态评价成为了土地评价的热点,土地多功能评价框架取得共识。研究结论：土地资源学在未来的发展中应不断完善学科理论体系、解决社会经济发展中的人地矛盾、改进研究问题的方法手段。     

土地资源建设开发承载力与适宜性评价研究

为探索建设空间资源环境承载力和国土空间开发适宜性在国土空间规划中的支撑点,分别构建以"本底—状态—效率""限制性—优势度—开发潜力"为主线的土地资源建设开发承载力与适宜性评价思路,并初步探索其在实践中的应用,为中小尺度国土空间规划中建设用地布局和指标分配提供参考。     

城镇用地扩张的弹性规划控制研究——以安徽省滁州市南谯区为例

采用双因素预测模型、主成分聚类分析法、建设用地生态适宜性评价等方法,研究城镇用地扩张的规模和空间布局规划控制,以探讨具备适度弹性的城镇用地扩张规划控制的内容及模式。基于扩张经济和人口增长驱动双因素,运用GDP、非农人口弹性预测及单位用地GDP、单位用地非农人口控制构建扩张规模弹性方案预测模型;考虑经济社会发展和节约集约控制需求,选取扩张弹性控制等级分区指标,划分由相对扩张到相对收缩、有弹性到无弹性的分级弹性控制区,结合建设生态适宜性评价结果,识别城镇空间有序发展方向。结果表明:弹性控制方案下南谯区2010、2015、2020年建设用地扩张规模弹性度分别为5.81%、7.25%、8.34%,并将其划分为四级扩张弹性控制区,东南方向为扩张有序方向。     

村级土地规划中的农村居民点用地方式适宜性评价

研究目的：对农村居民点用地方式的适宜性进行评价,为村级土地利用规划和农村土地整治提供依据。研究方法：文献查阅、专家咨询、对比分析、权重和法。研究结果：新安置区农村居民点用地方式可分为城镇型、集镇型、中心村型三种基本类型,其主要影响因素有农民就业结构、农民经济实力、村集体经济实力、村所在乡镇和县市的经济实力等;义乌市活鱼塘村和西澄村可建成城镇型农村居民点,海盐县横港村和百联村可建成集镇型农村居民点。研究结论：建立的农村居民点用地方式适宜性评价指标体系和评价方法具有一定的应用价值,对村级土地利用规划及农村居民点整理具有一定的指导作用。     

浙江省农业生态旅游资源评价指标体系构建

[目的]针对浙江省的农业生态旅游资源状况构建评价指标体系并分析指标权重,以期为浙江省农业生态旅游资源的开发评价和可持续发展提供支持。[方法]采用层次分析法(AHP)构建了3个子系统19个指标的浙江省农业生态旅游资源评价指标体系,通过专家咨询和问卷调查结果计算指标权重值和重要值,据此筛选重要指标。[结果]在浙江省农业生态旅游资源评价指标体系中,子系统层中的农业生态旅游资源自身价值的权重要远高于生态环境条件及其旅游开发条件。在指标层中,农事体验参与性、生态环境适宜性、生态稳定性、田园观赏美感度、民俗文化价值、田园景观奇特度、污染治理状况、交通状况、农事活动娱乐性、自然灾害防范能力和区位条件的权重之和超过80%,是最重要的评价指标,农事体验参与性和生态环境适宜性的重要性最高,而与之相对应的重要值排序也表现出相同的规律。[结论]农业生态旅游资源的评价应侧重于对其自身价值的评价和研究,该研究根据专家咨询和问卷调查的结果筛选出对农业生态旅游资源评价较为重要的指标,借助对这些重要指标的测度,可以对浙江省的农业生态旅游资源做出科学合理的评价,各指标虽有侧重,但共同协调发挥作用才能保证评价的整体效果。     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Does sustainable agricultural growth require a system of innovation? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso

This paper tests the ‘systems of innovation’ hypothesis for a selection of crops in Ghana and Burkina Faso that have shown significant growth in production over an approximately 20-year period. The question is whether such growth can only occur if supported by a system of innovation. Using two indicators (a common understanding on objectives and priorities, and a high level of interactivity), we find little evidence for the existence of anything that might be considered a high functioning system of innovation.     

Local impacts of industrial tree plantations: An empirical analysis in Indonesia across plantation types

The values ascribed to industrial tree plantations are often controversial. Hence knowledge of their perceived impacts is important for improving their integration in rural landscapes. In 2016 we conducted household surveys with 606 respondents living in villages adjacent to acacia, teak and pine plantations across three islands in Indonesia (Java, Borneo, Sumatra). Results show that perceptions toward pine and teak plantations tend to differ from those toward acacia pulpwood plantations in several ways. Pine and teak plantations are perceived to have a higher number and variety of benefits and services, a higher number of positive impacts, a better environmental record, and to present more opportunities to local people for use of plantation land and products for improving rural livelihoods. In addition, we find that villagers around acacia pulpwood plantations tend to seek economic development and infrastructure to open up remote areas, yet their expectations were often only partially met. Recommendations from our analysis include: the role of the State in plantations must be clarified and potentially reinforced; the role of institutions as intermediaries is fundamental; and contributions by communities to design of management plans should be accommodated.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

Malaria incidence and agricultural efficiency in Uganda

The cost of accessing healthcare can be a major determinant of disease prevalence, which in turn has short‐ and long‐term welfare implications on poor households. In response, governments in developing countries often resort to subsidizing the cost of drugs, which, while perhaps easier to administer, may not always be the most effective way of addressing healthcare cost. In this regard, we analyze the impact of different types of household level health expenses on disease incidence and agricultural production efficiency. We use data from the 2006 Uganda National Household Survey, which covered approximately 7,400 households. The results suggest that a 10% increase in consultation, medicine, and hospitalization expenses would reduce malaria incidence respectively by 35.6%, 20.5%, and 21.3 %, which translates into a 1.1%, 0.6%, and 0.6 % decrease in agricultural inefficiency, respectively. The results indicate that helping poor households meet expenses for consultation through subsidies or eliminating consultation fees has a larger impact on malaria incidence and agricultural productivity among poor rural households than subsidizing the cost of medical drugs, the most common avenue chosen by developing country governments in the fight against the disease.     

国土资源行政管理的若干应用基础理论问题（上）——自然资源属性分析

从自然属性、技术属性、经济属性三个角度分析入手 ,建立了自然资源的科学分类体系。     

实施全球资源战略 保障资源供应安全

实施全球资源战略是经济全球化趋势的客观要求,而经济全球化在为发展中国家提供发展机遇的同时,又对国家安全提出了严峻挑战.本文在阐述我国实施全球资源战略客观性、必要性的基础上,提出了我国实施全球资源战略中防范和抵御全球化负面影响、保障资源供应安全的措施建议.     

重构乡村基层社会生活的实态--一个值得深入考察的徽州古村落宅坦

古村落宅坦位于绩溪西部的崇山峻岭之中 ,胡氏宗族在生存条件极为恶劣的情况下 ,组织族人改造环境 ,使之成为人与自然和谐相处的乡村社会。千百年来 ,在特定的时空条件下 ,经过一系列的社会变迁 ,古村落已形成宗族组织、文化科举和商业的良性互动 ,从而创造了古村落的文明。三者之间宗族居于核心地位。传统中国社会的动乱也会在这里引起反响 ,但是由于宗族聚居的格局使古村落乃至徽州社会具有特殊的应变力 ,直至近代仍保持自身的稳定。宅坦村有着丰富的资料遗存 ,为我们在宅坦从事田野考察、重构古村落的实态 ,提供了必要的前提。可以预见 ,宅坦必将以其丰富的人文内涵为世人所瞩目