Using threshold cointegration to estimate asymmetric price transmission in the Swiss pork market

This paper employs threshold cointegration tests that allow for asymmetric adjustment towards a long-run equilibrium relationship to examine the relationship between producer and retail pork prices in Switzerland. The short-run adjustments are also examined with asymmetric error correction models that are compared to the conventional symmetric error correction models. The results indicate that price transmission between the producer and retail levels is asymmetric, in the sense that increases in producer prices that lead to declines in marketing margins are passed on more quickly to retail prices than decreases in producer prices that result in increases in the marketing margins.     

Determinants of price adjustment

This paper reports results of an empirical study investigating the adjustment speed of prices to change in costs and demand. Particular emphasis is laid on the impact of concentration on the adjustment speed. In addition, the effects of the business cycle and capital intensity are considered. It shows that concentrated industries tend to adjust prices faster, while capital intensity has a negative impact. Prices are more flexible during an upswing than in times of a recession.     

Scale economies with regard to price adjustment costs and the speed of price adjustment in Australian manufacturing

This paper aims to examine the impact of firm size, industry concentration and the length of production on industry speed of price adjustment. To motivate the paper, an industry pricing model in error correction form is derived from firm pricing behaviour. As a new development, firms are assumed to have price adjustment costs that are a function of their size. The empirical model is estimated using two‐digit Australian manufacturing industry data for the period 1994:3 to 2006:1. The results suggest that the industry speed of price adjustment is positively related to firm size and negatively related to industry concentration and the production lag. Implied values for industry speeds of price adjustment are generally small when compared to other country industry studies. However, the industry average median lag of 7.1 quarters indicates a slightly faster speed of price adjustment than the estimate for the Australian consumer price index by Dwyer and Leong (2001 Dwyer, J. and Leong, K. 2001. Changes in the determination of inflation in Australia 1–44. Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper 2001‐02 [Google Scholar]).     

The economics of the Swedish online gambling market

In this article, we study how the Swedish online gambling market has developed and how the availability of foreign-based online gambling has affected the domestic state-owned gambling monopoly, AB Svenska Spel. We find that online gambling and the traditional state-managed gambling are relatively weak substitutes. Thus, concerns about the availability of online gambling being able to undercut domestic gambling policies may be overstated.     

Reconsideration of the P-bar model of gradual price adjustment

This paper compares the P-bar model of price adjustment with the currently dominant Calvo specification. Theoretically, the P-bar model is more attractive as it depends on adjustment costs for physical quantities rather than nominal prices, while incorporating a one-period information lag. Furthermore, the resulting adjustment relation is more completely free of “money illusion,” in terms of dynamic relationships, and therefore satisfies the natural-rate hypothesis of Lucas [1972a. Econometric testing of the natural rate hypothesis. In: Eckstein, O. (Ed.), The Econometrics of Price Determination. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System], which is not satisfied by the Calvo model in any of its variants. Along the way, it shows that both the P-bar and Calvo models can be formulated in distinct versions in which current real wages are, or are not, allocative. Quantitatively, for a given calibration of the demand parameters, the implied time-series properties of the inflation rate, output gap, and nominal interest rate are determined for various policy parameters, and are compared with quarterly data for the US economy. Neither model dominates but, overall, the comparison seems somewhat more favorable to the P-bar model and certainly does not provide support for the dominant position held by the Calvo model in current monetary policy analysis.     

Some quasi-globally stable processes of price adjustment

In this paper, the existence of some quasi-globally stable processes of price adjustment in a perfectly competitive market, is proved. These processes are relative to a special class of “excess demand” vector fields satisfying regularity hypotheses and boundary conditions of classical type. Modifications of the above processes which, under different hypotheses, are still quasi-globally stable, are studied.     

Price transmission and asymmetric adjustment in the Spanish dairy sector

Asymmetric threshold vector error correction models are applied to monthly price data to analyse price relationships and patterns of transmission among farm and retail markets for a variety of dairy products in Spain. The results suggest that asymmetries affect a conspicuous part of the raw milk processed in Spain. Implications for the organizational structure of Spanish dairy markets are offered.     

Asymmetric quantile analysis of the Swedish mortgage price discovery process

Based on Swedish banking data we discover robust and significantly positive Asymmetric Price Transmission (APT) effects over all analysed regression quantiles of our mortgage interest rates, with even larger positive APT for the higher percentiles. The analysis was enabled through unique access to a Swedish bank's (SEB) own records of their true borrowing costs. Our central contribution is that there is a higher propensity for the bank to rapidly increase its mortgage interest rates for customers following an increase in its borrowing costs, compared with the propensity for the bank to decrease its customers’ mortgage rates subsequent to a corresponding borrowing cost decrease.     

Endogenous fixprices and sticky price adjustment of risk-averse firms

A risk-averse price-setting firm which knows the quantity demanded at the status quo price but has imperfect information otherwise may choose not to change it although an otherwise identical risk-neutral firm would do so, provided the variance of the firm's subjective probability distribution over quantities demanded as a function of price displays a kink at the status quo. This is equivalent to risk aversion of order one. When no such endogenous fixprice exists, the size of price adjustment still tends to zero as risk aversion tends to infinity, and to any arbitrarily small menu cost there exists a degree of risk aversion so that the firm will not adjust.     

An econometric analysis of the effects of market liberalization on price dynamics and price volatility

The paper investigates price dynamics under market liberalization, with a focus on the effects of lowering price floors. We analyze price dynamics by specifying and estimating a dynamic Tobit model under time-varying volatility, where the market price is censored by a government-set support price. The model is applied to the U.S. butter market over the last three decades. The econometric results show how the price support program affects both expected prices and the volatility of prices. It is found that the censoring effects of a price support program can be significant and large even if the price support is set relatively low.

Differential efficiency,market structure and price

A persistent question in industrial economics is the underpinning of the link between market concentration and price. How much of the link can be attributed to market power and how much to market efficiency? This paper develops a theoretical model to address that question. Applied to the US portland cement industry, the model indicates that both impacts matter. In relative terms, however, the market power effect is twice as large as the efficiency effect. An implication for merger policy is that the beneficial efficiency effects of mergers may not be obtained without the detrimental market power effects as well.     

Long-run purchasing power parity and asymmetric adjustment in BRICs

The primary aim of this study is an attempt to determine whether the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis holds for those countries that have collectively come to be known as ‘BRICs’, namely, Brazil, Russia, India and China. We use the momentum threshold cointegration tests (advanced by Enders and Siklos, 2001 Enders, W. and Siklos, P. L. 2001. Cointegration and threshold adjustment. Journal of Business Economics and Statistics, 19: 166–76. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to investigate whether any asymmetric adjustment is discernible for BRICs, and show that whilst the Engle–Granger test (which assumes only symmetric adjustment) fails to reveal any cointegrational relationship for BRICs, the threshold cointegration test (with asymmetric adjustment) provides clear evidence of long-run PPP for BRICs, with the notable exception of China. We conclude that asymmetric adjustment of nominal exchange rates plays an important role in eliminating deviations from long-run PPP.     

US macroeconomic conditions and asymmetric adjustment in Presidential approval

While voters may punish governments for worsening economic conditions, they may not reward them symmetrically for improving conditions. We examine whether US macroeconomic conditions affect Presidential approval asymmetrically using quarterly data from 1961_I to 2009_II. The results suggest that the relationship between Presidential approval and economic aggregates is nonlinear. Long‐run causality runs from the economic variables to Presidential support. The speed of adjustment towards long‐run equilibrium relationship also differs when conditions worsen from when they improve. Finally, we explore the impact of other factors, such as war and Presidential scandal on Presidential approval.     

Producer price adjustment to commodity price shocks: An application of threshold cointegration

During the 1980s and 1990s, most developing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America implemented structural adjustment reforms, which included the liberalization of export crop markets and the abolition of marketing boards. The emergence of new marketing systems may have altered price transmission mechanisms, especially if collusion behaviors have appeared among domestic stakeholders along the marketing chain. I use threshold cointegration tools to analyze the dynamics of world price transmission to coffee growers in three deregulated markets. The methods I use allow me to test the presence of a threshold in both the cointegrating relationship and its corresponding error correction model. Over the pre-reform period, I detect asymmetric price adjustments that appear favorable to producers - deviations from the long-run equilibrium resulting from largest increases in world prices being eliminated relatively quickly - and disappear in the post-reform period. On the contrary over the post-reform period, the results suggest that largest decreases in world prices may be transmitted relatively quickly to growers. These results can be seen as expressions of a favorable pricing policy over the pre-reform period and an unfavorable influence of new private agents over the post-reform period, meaning that in some cases reforms may have failed to create competitive market structures.     

An analysis of asymmetric demand response to price changes: The case of local telephone calls

Asymmetric demand responses to price changes are not an observable implication of classical demand theory, which predicts that consumers will react to a small price increase in much the same way as they do to a small price decrease. Yet applied researchers have long speculated that consumers are more sensitive to price increases than they are to price decreases. In addition, recent empirical studies generally support the theory of asymmetric demand responses. We construct a dynamic model based on data gathered from monthly telephone bills for 128 New York Telephone customers over a five-year period. Our results support the conclusion that customers react more quickly and strongly when prices go up than they do when prices go down.We would like to thank Manny Haas and Bernie Reddy for their comments and suggestions.     

Taxation and the asymmetric adjustment of selected retail energy prices in the UK

This paper investigates the adjustment of the prices of four key petroleum products in the UK following changes in the price of crude oil. We find significant evidence that the pre-tax prices of diesel, kerosene, and gas oil adjust more rapidly in an upward than a downward direction, but that the pre-tax price of unleaded petrol adjusts symmetrically. However, these patterns are obscured at the pump once one accounts for fuel duty and value-added tax, raising the possibility that firms can use the tax system to conceal rent-seeking behaviour.