Unemployment vs. Mismatch of Talents: Reconsidering Unemployment Benefits

We develop an equilibrium search-matching model with risk-neutral agents and two-sided ex-ante heterogeneity. Unemployment insurance has the standard effect of reducing employment, but also helps workers to get a suitable job. We show, through calibrations, how the mere difference on unemployment insurance, when countries experience a common skilled-biased technological shock, may result in differences in unemployment, productivity growth and wage inequality. These results are consistent with the contrasting performance of the labour market in Europe and the United States in the last twenty-five years. The model is used to address some political economy issues.     

Perpetual Leapfrogging in Bertrand Duopoly

We consider different patterns of infinite technological adoption choices by firms in a Bertrand duopoly. Every period technological progress provides a sequence of cost reducing innovations. The equilibrium concept is Markov perfect equilibrium. We analyze conditions for which equilibrium adoption leads to persistent leadership and those where firms alternate in adoption inducing leapfrogging. Only leapfrogging leads to technological improvement in the long run. Demand conditions play a crucial role in determining whether leapfrogging can be perpetual in Bertrand duopoly.     

Equilibrium and optimality: Some imprints of David Gale

The paper is a review of some of the themes to which David Gale made lasting contributions. It touches upon a number of the fundamental issues in the Walrasian equilibrium theory (existence, uniqueness and stability), the overlapping generations model (non-optimality and indeterminacy of competitive equilibria), the von Neumann equilibrium (as a turnpike), and in the theory of decentralized intertemporal allocation through competitive prices (efficiency and golden rules, duality and existence of optimal programs).     

Imperfect information, Bayesian learning, and capital accumulation

This paper examines the consequences of informational imperfections for economic growth in an overlapping generations model in which agents learn the technological parameters in a Bayesian fashion. Under mild sufficient conditions, beliefs converge to the true value of the technological parameters. Nevertheless, even short-lived informational imperfections could have lasting effects, as they alter the long-run equilibrium levels of the capital stock. Therefore, learning dynamics may explain some of the observed differences in the performance of countries with otherwise similar economic characteristics.     

Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition

This paper considers irreversible investment in competing research projects with uncertain returns under a winner-takes-all patent system. Uncertainty takes two distinct forms: the technological success of the project is probabilistic, while the economic value of the patent to be won evolves stochastically over time. According to the theory of real options uncertainty generates an option value of delay, but with two competing firms the fear of preemption would appear to undermine this approach. In non-cooperative equilibrium two patterns of investment emerge depending on parameter values. In a pre-emptive leader–follower equilibrium firms invest sequentially and option values are reduced by competition. A symmetric outcome may also occur, however, in which investment is more delayed than the single-firm counterpart. Comparing this with the optimal cooperative investment pattern, investment is found to be more delayed when firms act non-cooperatively as each holds back from investing in the fear of starting a patent race. Implications of the analysis for empirical and policy issues in R&D are considered.     

Technology and the Hydra of terrorism?

In the application of new technologies that address the terrorism problem, an objective is to ensure that the technology does not cause more problems than it solves. Potential new technologies, including convergences of genomics, robotics, information technology, and nanotechnology, might rapidly develop. As with any technological advance, each of these offers a mixture of benefits and risks. At first, a direct approach is reviewed by looking at how these technologies might deter the motive, means, and opportunity for terrorist activities. While there are many potential deterrence applications, other issues are identified that might cause unintended problems in the system. Some of these problems include the possible contribution to terrorist motives by increasing stresses toward divisiveness in society, terrorist means through the development of dual-use technologies, or terrorist opportunities by further developing technological vulnerabilities.Next, a more systemic approach is taken by reviewing a wider range of issues, such as resource availability, management of science and technology, and general societal trends. The balance between technological change and social response is important in realizing benefits while mitigating unintended consequences such as harmful uses through terrorist actions. To explore issues concerning this balance, possible technological development scenarios are reviewed, including the possibility of accelerating or slowing technological development. Some recent recommendations are considered within this context. The need for a balance between technological and social response in this asymmetric situation suggests that the benefits of a rapid technological response against terrorism might not be as large as those observed during World War II.     

The empirical analysis of the determinants for environmental technological change: A research agenda

Technological change is usually considered a necessary albeit not sufficient condition for a transition to sustainability. However, the empirical analysis of the determinants to environmental technological change has not received too much attention in the environmental/ecological economics literature and many open questions remain in this context. Based on a careful review of the literature, this paper argues that further analysis should address several issues at different levels: i.e., regarding the conceptual framework, the thematic scope of the studies, some methodological issues and other aspects related to the environmental policy variable. First, an integrated conceptual framework which takes into account the interplay between relevant variables influencing environmental technological change (i.e., factors internal and external to the firm and characteristics of the environmental technologies) and all the stages of this process, with a greater emphasis on the invention stage, should be developed. Other aspects should then be tackled, including a focus on several themes (i.e., a greater attention to cross-sectoral technologies, the barriers to different types of environmental technologies, the international dimension of environmental technological change and environmental technological change in small and medium size enterprises), methodological issues (combination of case studies and econometric modelling) and several issues related to the environmental policy variable.     

Green taxes and uncertain timing of technological change

This paper concerns the role of environmental taxation in a model with endogenous technological change, where the latter implies that natural inputs become more productive. The timing of technological change is, in turn, uncertain and the likelihood of discovering the new technology is related to the amount of resources spent on R&D. The analysis is based on a dynamic general equilibrium model. One purpose of the paper is to design a policy so as to internalize the external effects arising from pollution and R&D. Another is to develop cost benefit rules for green tax reforms, when the initial equilibrium is suboptimal.     

Strategic pricing of equity issues

Summary. Consider a general equilibrium model where agents may behave strategically. Specifically, suppose some firm issues new shares. If the primary market price is controlled by the issuing institution and investors' expectations on future equity prices are constant in their share purchases, the share price on the primary market cannot exceed the secondary market share price. In certain cases this may imply strict underpricing of newly issued shares. If investors perceive an influence on future share prices overpriced issues may occur in equilibrium. This provides an example of strategic price manipulation in general equilibrium models with sequential markets. Received: March 14, 2000; revised version: May 15, 2001     

EQUILIBRIUM GROWTH IN A MONETARY ECONOMY WITH TRANSACTIONS COSTS*

The paper describes a dynamic general equilibrium monetary economy with technological primitives that are consistent with the possibility of asymptotic equilibrium growth. The paper focuses on the relationship between equilibrium financing constraints on investment goods, transaction costs and economic growth. A generalized growth condition is derived that involves both monetary growth rates and transaction costs. The condition is used to show that (i) although inflation taxes can potentially exert a negative influence on long-run economic growth, these growth effects cannot in general be arbitrarily large; and (ii) for some monetary growth rates, money is superneutral in contrast to the models of Stockman and Abel. Numerical work indicates that although the welfare and growth effects of decreasing nominal interest rates from a benchmark are large, the costs associated with raising nominal interest rates from benchmark are not.     

可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型的几个前沿问题

可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型是一种常用的经济分析理论与工具,它通过对经济系统整体的模拟来对特定的经济政策变动进行分析。近年来,地宏观经济描述的进一步深入与细致,CGE模型在模拟经济系统方面出现一些问题。本文在参考大量外国文献的基础上,针对经济科学近年来的发展,在模型结构、模型闭合、技术进步、模型动态属性、计算工具等方面进行探讨。     

Schumpeterian process competition, welfare and laissez-faire: An experiment in artificial economic evolution

A simulation model is used to construct a regime of artificial economic evolution, where Schumpeterian process competition prevails, in the presence of technological uncertainty and bounded rationality. The output decision of the firm is represented by a behavioural algorithm, which allows for the presence of collusive behaviour. The purpose of the experiments is to go some way towards addressing the twin issues of the nature of the relationship between market structure and industry performance in a dynamic setting, and the contention that the evolutionary metaphor implies a laissez-faire stance with respect to policy issues. Under the simplifying assumptions of the model, experiments suggest that industries which generate high average concentration over a given period can compare favourably with industries that generate low average concentration, if the time profiles of both welfare and concentration are analysed. Also, the experiments suggest that the industry will naturally evolve a structure best suited to exploit the technological environment, but despite this there is still a role for intervention into the competitive process.     

Endogenous technological change,income distribution,and unemployment with inter-class conflict

This paper presents a Kaleckian growth model that incorporates endogenous technological change. The model endogenously determines the rate of capacity utilization, the rate of economic growth, income distribution, and the employment rate in addition to technological change. The paper shows that whether or not an increase in the relative bargaining power of workers raises the long-run equilibrium unemployment rate depends on which regime is realized in the long-run equilibrium. If, for example, the long-run equilibrium corresponds to the wage-led growth regime, a rise in the relative bargaining power of workers leads to a decline in the unemployment rate. This result is never obtained from the mainstream NAIRU model.     

On positional consumption and technological innovation: an agent-based model

Positional behaviour is arguably a source of social externalities. Remedies for this market failure are defended by some authors and rejected by others. One of the issues discussed is the role that the competition for positional goods may have in generating technological innovation. This article aims to contribute to the understanding of the dynamics of this process through the use of an agent-based model. Simulations show a plausible dynamics of the process of technological innovation as generated by consumption of positional nature. An interpretation of the results in the scope of the policy discussion in question is provided. The influence of key factors such as income inequality, the materialization of the Hirsch conjecture, and characteristics of the network of relative preferences, is analised. We also frame the potential interest of positional consumption and this model in particular in the context of the ongoing discussion among evolutionary economists on the behaviour of demand.     

科技安全：定义,内涵和外延

随着科技进步对社会发展的作用日益增强,科学技术与国家安全的关系越来越密切。本文从国家安全概念的演变出发,提出了科技安全的概念,并就这一概念的内涵和外延进行了必要的论述,还分析了容易引起对科技安全错误理解的几个问题     

Technology–Policy Interaction in Frictional Labour-Markets

Does capital-embodied technological change play an important role in shaping labour-market outcomes? To address this question, we develop a model with vintage capital and search-matching frictions where irreversible investment in new vintages of capital creates heterogeneity in productivity among firms, matched as well as vacant. We demonstrate that capital-embodied technological change reduces labour demand and raises equilibrium unemployment and unemployment durations. In addition, the presence of labour-market regulations (unemployment benefits, payroll taxes, and firing costs) exacerbates these effects. Thus, the model is qualitatively consistent with some key features of the European labour-market experience relative to that of the U.S.: it features a sharper rise in unemployment and a sharper fall in the vacancy rate and the labour share. A calibrated version of our model suggests that this technology–policy interaction could explain a sizeable fraction of the observed differences between the U.S. and Europe.     

Technological generalizations and leitbilder—the anticipation of technological opportunities

Recent national technology foresight studies as well as the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University are very much based on “nodes of discussion.” These short statements are called, e.g., topics, issues, or developments. This article provides a framework for the classification and analysis of nodes related to future technological development. Key concepts of the article are “technological generalization” and “leitbild.” The topics in the technology foresight Delphi studies can be seen as different kinds of generalizations from already realized technological developments. Leitbild is a German word. Its most general meaning is a guiding image. Like a common vision, a leitbild creates a shared overall goal, offers orientation toward one long-term overall goal, and provides a basis for different professions and disciplines to work in the same direction. The analysis of leitbilder and emerging technological paradigms might contribute to the construction of topics and issues and to the argumentation processes related to them.     

总量均衡区间、相关社会福利损失与宏观调控阻力源问题

现代市场经济运行中,由于调整供给量须耗费调节成本,因而传统分析中的"总量均衡中心点"两侧便分别存在着"低位临界点"与"高位临界点",这两点界定了一个特殊的总量均衡区间.总量均衡区间的存在,将导致一定的社会福利"无谓损失",同时,因社会福利格局变动将产生源自不同方面的宏观调控阻力,对些,须采取不同的政策措施予以应对.     

Government spending and growth in second-best economies

This paper extends public spending-based growth theory along three directions: we assume a logistic trajectory for the ratio of government expenditure to aggregate income, self-limiting population change, and exogenous technological progress. By focusing on the choices of a benevolent social planner we find that, if the inverse of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption is sufficiently high, the ratio of consumption to private physical capital converges towards zero when time goes to infinity. Depending on the form of the underlying aggregate production function and on whether, for given production function, technological progress equals zero or a positive constant, our model may or may not yield an asymptotically balanced growth path (ABGP) equilibrium. When there is no exogenous technological progress, an equilibrium where population size, the ratio of government spending to aggregate income and the ratio of consumption to private physical capital are all constant does exist and the equilibrium is a saddle point. In case of positive technological progress numerical simulations show that the model still exhibits an ABGP equilibrium.     

Technology change management: Imperatives for developing economies

This paper begins with the well-accepted premise that technological progress provides the foundation for economic prosperity. And, because most developing countries are lagging behind due to technological underdevelopment, a judicious management of the technological advancement process deserves serious attention. Keeping these in mind and also taking stock of the current global perspective for developing economies, what problems and issues will have to be dealt with, and what bottlenecks will have to be removed are presented first. The middle portion of the paper then deals with a brief dissection of the vital dimensions of the required technological change management system for practitioners and policymakers in these countries. The third and the last part presents some observations/comments regarding the attitudinal, organizational, and institutional changes that could help in achieving the aspired technology-led economic miracle.