Economic determinants of free trade agreements

The purpose of this study is to provide the first systematic empirical analysis of the economic determinants of the formation of free trade agreements (FTAs) and of the likelihood of FTAs between pairs of countries using a qualitative choice model. We develop this econometric model based upon a general equilibrium model of world trade with two factors of production, two monopolistically-competitive product markets, and explicit intercontinental and intracontinental transportation costs among multiple countries on multiple continents. The empirical model correctly predicts, based solely upon economic characteristics, 85% of the 286 FTAs existing in 1996 among 1431 pairs of countries and 97% of the remaining 1145 pairs with no FTAs.     

Mars or Mercury redux: The geopolitics of bilateral trade agreements

We analyse the role of economic and security considerations in bilateral trade agreements. We use the pre‐World War I period to test whether trade agreements are governed by standard gravity variables, or by instead—or in addition—geopolitical factors. While we like others find support for standard gravity variables, we also find that defence pacts boost the probability of trade agreements by as much as 20 percentage points. Our estimates imply that were the U.S. to alienate its geopolitical allies, the likelihood and benefits of successful bilateral agreements would fall significantly. Trade creation from an agreement between the U.S. and E.U. countries would decline by about 0.6 per cent of total U.S. exports.     

The trade structure effects of endogenous regional trade agreements

This paper formulates an empirical model to estimate the impact of endogenous new regional trade agreement (RTA) membership on trade structure. The likelihood of new RTA membership is influenced by economic fundamentals such as country size, factor endowments, and trade and investment costs. In a sample of country-pairs covering mainly the OECD economies we find a particularly strong effect of endogenous RTAs on intra-industry trade in a difference-in-difference analysis based on matching techniques. The associated trade volume effects are similar to the ones found in previous research on the effects of endogenous RTAs. Overall, this indicates that RTA membership might reduce inter-industry trade not only in relative but also in absolute terms and that the trade volume effect is due to the associated growth in trade within industries.     

The value of market access and national treatment commitments in services trade agreements

This paper looks at market access and national treatment commitments for services in the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) and in 95 regional trade agreements (RTAs) involving the countries that are covered in the OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI). The objective is to quantify the impact of legal bindings on trade in services that result from a reduction in the uncertainty faced by exporters. Bilateral bindings indices are created for five broad service sectors (professional services, computer services, telecoms, financial services and transport services). They indicate how close the sector is from a fully bound regime with no possibility to introduce any new trade barrier, by comparing commitments with the actual trade regime. These bilateral indices are then tested over the period 2000–2014 in a structural gravity model. Despite differences across sectors, the results confirm that the legal bindings typically found in services trade agreements tend to have a positive impact on exports even if no actual liberalisation takes place.     

Recurrent trade agreements and the value of external enforcement

This paper presents a theory of dynamic trade agreements in which external institutions, such as the WTO, play a central role in supporting credible enforcement. In our model, countries engage in ongoing negotiations, and, as a consequence, cooperative agreements become unsustainable in the absence of external enforcement institutions. By using mechanisms such as delays in dispute resolution and direct penalties, enforcement institutions can restore incentives for cooperation, despite the lack of coercive power. The occurrence of costly trade disputes, and the feasibility of mechanisms such as escape clauses, depend on the degree to which enforcement institutions can verify, and condition on, events that may lead to trade disputes.     

Formation of interdependent regional trade agreements and production networks

Production networks (PNs) can be defined as a determinant of trade partnership. Deepening PNs may generate positive welfare effects and lead to a proliferation in the formation of interdependent regional trade agreements (RTAs). This paper theoretically develops the link between PNs and the formation of RTAs and empirically investigates the link by applying a qualitative choice model estimation methodology (probit) with panel data that covers bilateral country‐pairs among 147 countries between 2000 and 2010. We find that the RTA formation has been strongly driven by deepening PNs between members as well as with third countries. We also find that production network‐driven RTA interdependence is member specific.     

Increasing returns, multinationals and geography of preferential trade agreements

This paper uses a model of horizontal multinational enterprises to explore the relationship between transportation costs and trade policy cooperation. Tariffs have the effect of attracting foreign direct investment to the benefit of consumers in the host country. As transport costs fall, the incentive to impose tariffs falls and the benefits to cooperation rise. Thus, in a repeated game in which cooperation is limited by a self-enforcement constraint, a reduction in transport costs facilitates free trade. This logic is applied to a three-country model to examine preferential trade agreements. It is found that if any country is too distant from the others, then global free trade is not attainable. Rather, if two of the countries are within a critical distance of each other and distant from the third country, then the unique outcome is an exclusive free trade agreement between the two adjacent countries. Thus, the model predicts a strong regional bias in preferential trade agreements.     

Economic integration agreements and the margins of international trade

One of the main policy sources of trade–cost changes is the formation of an economic integration agreement (EIA), which potentially affects an importing country's welfare. This paper: (i) provides the first evidence using gravity equations of both intensive and extensive (goods) margins being affected by EIAs employing a panel data set with a large number of country pairs, product categories, and EIAs from 1962 to 2000; (ii) provides the first evidence of the differential (partial) effects of various “types” of EIAs on these intensive and extensive margins of trade; and (iii) finds a novel differential “timing” of the two margins' (partial) effects with intensive-margin effects occurring sooner than extensive-margin effects, consistent with recent theoretical predictions. The results are robust to correcting for potential sample-selection, firm-heterogeneity, and reverse causality biases.     

Endogenous political organization and the value of trade agreements

In a bargaining model of endogenous protection, I introduce fixed costs of political-organization that need to be incurred by capitalists prior to actual lobbying. Unlike Maggi and Rodriguez-Clare [J. Pol. Econ. 106(3) (1998) 575] intersectoral capital mobility is disallowed. Nevertheless, I am still able to obtain their main result that a government with low bargaining power vis-à-vis the import-competing lobby precommits to a free-trade agreement. Further, with high fixed organizational costs, the government prefers to stay out of such agreements. Its maximum bargaining power consistent with signing a trade agreement has an inverse-V-shaped relationship with respect to the size of fixed costs.     

Unpeel the layers of trust! A comparative analysis of crowdfunding platforms and what they do to generate trust

Crowdfunding can prove to be a crucial alternative financing method, especially for microentrepreneurs, new ventures, and nonprofit associations. But trust needs to be built before prospective users decide to use crowdfunding, and we still lack an in-depth understanding of how crowdfunding platforms make users trust them. We analyzed 50 crowdfunding platforms of different types, from investment and lending platforms to reward and donation platforms. Within the sample, we included successful and consolidated platforms, such as Kickstarter, Crowdcube, and Indiegogo, as well as lesser-known and less active platforms, such as Crowdence, Zank, and Fundeen. A comparative analysis of these platforms reveals a diversity of organizational practices that aim to generate trust on four levels: trust toward the platform, toward the project, toward the users, and toward the notion of crowdfunding overall. We suggest guidelines for best practices for crowdfunding platforms and a checklist of points for prospective users searching for the right crowdfunding platform.     

The effects of trade agreements on the growth of major Latin American economies

While the connection between trade openness and economic growth is generally assumed to be positive, empirically, it is not clearly demonstrable. Examinations of the relationship between trade and growth have taken a number of approaches, differing both in the empirical methods, as well as the proxies employed for trade openness, trade liberalization, and growth, but results have been decidedly mixed. Our research differs from prior studies in that it does not examine whether trade policy, trade liberalization or the level of trade itself enhances GDP; but rather whether participating in a specific type of trade agreement/union and/or the number of trade agreements to which a given country or region belongs enhances a country's level of growth. For this purpose, we study the relationship between trade agreements and growth for 18 Latin American countries between 1960 and 2008. Empirical analysis uses an adaptation of the neoclassical Solow growth model. Even though supporters of globalization advance the notion that involvement in trade agreements will help a country's economy, our findings suggest that that may not be consistently so.     

Multilateral stability and efficiency of trade agreements: A network formation approach

We study the endogenous network formation of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements by means of hypergraphs and introduce the equilibrium concept of multilateral stability. We consider multicountry settings with a firm in each country that produces a homogeneous good and competes as a Cournot oligopolist in each market. Under endogenous tariffs, we find that a multilateral trade agreement governing the rules and norms of tariff setting, that is the WTO/GATT regime itself, together with a bilateral preferential trade agreement (PTA) is multilaterally stable. We also find that the existence of the WTO is necessary for the stability of the trading system. We further analyse the impact of PTAs on multilateral tariffs within the WTO. We find that the formation of PTAs increases countries' incentives for multilateral tariff reduction.     

A comparative institutional analysis of agreements on product standards

The WTO and the EU have chosen two different agreements on product standards. While the WTO's approach is primarily based on a “National Treatment” (NT) principle, the EU's approach crucially relies on a principle of “Mutual Recognition” (MR). This paper offers a first look at the comparative performance of these two principles. We show that standards are imposed for levels of externalities that are too low under NT and too high under MR. This suggests that NT should be preferred to MR when the amount of trade in goods characterized by high levels of externalities is large.     

Rue the ROOs: Rules of origin and the gains (or losses) from trade agreements

ABSTRACT

This article provides three-good, three-country examples of trade in both intermediate inputs and final goods. These show the adverse effects that rules of origin (ROOs) can have, even in a world where every country has a free trade agreement (FTA) with every other country. ROOs may cause ubiquitous FTAs to yield a level of welfare, for everyone, that is worse than if there were no FTAs at all, and all trade were subject to common nondiscriminatory tariffs. Thus, the move to an ever increasing number of FTAs may be reducing world welfare.     

Route factors influencing trust and attitude toward TV shopping

Television (TV) shopping has notably changed the way people shop today. Due to the high uncertainty and risk associated with TV shopping transactions, trust is crucial to facilitating the adoption of TV shopping. Drawing upon the elaboration likelihood model (ELM), this study examined the effect of route factors on trust and attitude toward TV shopping. While media richness, host interaction, and price fairness act as central cues, ease of payment acts as a peripheral cue. This study employed structural equation modeling, and the sample consisted of 460 TV home shoppers in Taiwan. The results indicated that trust and attitude develop through a dual route that includes a central route and peripheral route. Trust is an important mediator influencing the relationship between route factors and attitude. Moreover, user experience moderates the relationships in the model. Therefore, this study advanced the previous knowledge of the ELM in the context of TV shopping.     

Trade effects of the Europe agreements: A theory-based gravity approach

We analyze normalized productivity differences for 15 developing Latin American countries and four firm types: National Domestic, National Exporter, Foreign Domestic, and Foreign Exporter. There are no productivity thresholds for viability, export activity, or multinational activity, but we do find a clear size productivity premium and development productivity premium in the manufacturing sectors. We also find a clear foreign-ownership productivity premium, both for domestic firms and for exporting firms and both for manufacturing sectors and services sectors. In contrast, we only find an export productivity premium for national firms in the manufacturing sectors.     

Trade liberalization,free trade agreements,and the value of firms: Stock market evidence from Singapore

We examine the effects of the United States–Singapore Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on the value of firms listed in the Singapore Exchange using event study analysis. Despite the predictability of the FTA negotiations, we find that one event – the removal of the last obstacle to the free trade deal in January 2003 – increases the value of firms in some industries by 1–11% on average. These results indicate that trade liberalization and FTAs do increase the value of firms.     

The true art of the tax deal: Evidence on aid flows and bilateral double tax agreements

Of a total of 2,976 double tax agreements (DTA s), some 60% are signed between a developing and a developed economy. As DTA s shift taxing rights from capital‐importing to capital‐exporting countries, the latter inherently benefit more from the agreements. In this paper, we argue that capital exporters use foreign aid to incite capital importers into signing DTA s. We demonstrate in a theoretical model that in a deal, one country does not trump the other, but that the deal must be mutually beneficial. In the case of an asymmetric DTA , this requires compensation from the capital‐exporting country to the capital‐importing country. Examining DTA s that are signed between donor and recipient countries between 1991 and 2012, and using a fixed effects Poisson model, we find that bilateral foreign aid commitments increase by 22% in the year of the signature of a DTA . Evaluated at the sample mean, this translates into around US$ six million additional aid commitments in a DTA signatory year.     

Drivers of importer trust and commitment: Evidence from a developing country

This study investigates the interrelationships between antecedents of importers' trust and commitment to their foreign suppliers in an Asian country. This area has been under-researched in comparison to exporters' behavioral perspectives as well as in comparison to developed countries. A theoretical model is developed based on theories of transaction cost (TC) and the internationalization process (IP), and studies examined regarding the context of relationship trust and commitment. The model is tested using SEM on a sample of 238 importers in Bangladesh. The findings suggest that importer trust leads to commitment but that foreign supplier's opportunistic inclination affects both their trust and commitment. Overall, the findings indicate that cultural similarity, effective communication, knowledge and experience, opportunism and environmental uncertainty are vital antecedents of trust and commitment. The findings have important implications for academics and practitioners.     

A model of trust and compliance in franchise relationships

Despite the danger of franchisee non-compliance as a severe impediment to overall franchise operation and performance, there is currently minimal understanding of the key factors that lead to these behaviors. Using a foundation of relational exchange theory, we construct and test a model that demonstrates how two distinct forms of trust, based upon perceptions of franchisor integrity and franchisor competence, are critical to explaining the roles that relational conflict and satisfaction play in influencing franchisee compliance. Implications of these findings are then demonstrated to have compelling relevance to the effective management of franchise systems.