Classical and Impulse Stochastic Control of the Exchange Rate Using Interest Rates and Reserves

We consider the problem of a Central Bank that wants the exchange rate to be as close as possible to a given target, and in order to do that uses both the interest rate level and interventions in the foreign exchange market. We model this as a mixed classical‐impulse stochastic control problem, and provide for the first time a solution to that kind of problem. We give examples of solutions that allow us to perform an interesting economic analysis of the optimal strategy of the Central Bank.     

The formation of forward freight agreement rates in dry bulk shipping: Spot rates,risk premia,and heterogeneous expectations

We examine the formation of forward rates in the dry bulk shipping industry. We illustrate that the bulk of basis volatility can be attributed to expectations about future physical market conditions rather than expectations about future risk premia. However, there exists significant predictability of risk premia by both price-based signals and economic variables. To explain this finding, we develop a dynamic asset pricing framework where, apart from having different objective functions, agents might also differ in the way they form expectations about future market conditions. Accordingly, we argue that the average investor should hold “near-rational” but slightly contrarian beliefs.     

Experience-based corporate corruption and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging markets

This paper reassesses how “experience-based” corporate corruption affects stock market volatility in 14 emerging markets. We match the World Bank enterprise-level data on bribes with a unique cross-country macroeconomics dataset obtained from the World Bank development indicators. It is found that wider coverage of “realized” corporate corruption in the emerging markets investigated reduces the stock market volatility, attributed to decrease in uncertainty about government policy with regard to the business environment, as implied by the general equilibrium model of Pastor and Veronesi (2012). Overall, our results suggest that stock price volatility decreases as the uncertainty about government policy becomes more predictable, which is consistent with the testable hypotheses of Pastor and Veronesi (2012).     

A down-and-out exchange option model with jumps to evaluate firms' default probabilities in Brazil

We develop a tractable structural model to estimate a firm's default probability by modeling its asset and debt behavior. The model incorporates jump factors. For a set of Brazilian large corporations, we compare the structural model results to the default probabilities predicted by a survival analysis applied to the Central Bank debt information database. Our model outperforms other structural models. In a last step, we use a firm's sector failure probabilities to calibrate the model. This process is executed by adjusting the model jump volatility and it helps to explain the differences between debt and equity market failure probabilities.     

Measuring volatility persistence for conventional and Islamic banks: An FI-EGARCH approach

This paper studies the volatility dynamics of conventional and Islamic banks from the Gulf Cooperation Council (G.C.C) countries during calm and crisis periods, providing a dual comparison in time and space. In particular, it proposes an empirical measure of volatility persistence using the FIEGARCH (Fractionally Integrated Exponential Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model. This specification is useful for reproducing further asymmetry in volatility dynamics and provides a direct measure of long-term volatility dependence. Our findings point to three interesting findings. First, volatility exhibits asymmetry as bad news has a significantly higher impact on volatility than positive news. Second, bad news affects the volatility of conventional banks more strongly than that of Islamic banks. Third, it seems that following a shock, volatility is more persistent in conventional banks than in Islamic Banks. Accordingly, Islamic banks are more resilient than conventional banks, but the degree of resilience is somewhat heterogeneous and sample dependent. Thus, while this may appear to suggest that we could regulate the conventional bank system using the industry rules of Islamic banks, it is worth noting that Islamic banks in Saudi Arabia tend to provide the most resilient Islamic Bank benchmark model.     

What drives portfolio capital inflows into emerging market economies? The role of the Fed's and ECB's balance sheet policies

We provide an empirical investigation of the spillovers from the balance sheet policies conducted by the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) and the European Central Bank (the ECB) to gross portfolio capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs). The analysis is based upon a panel dataset covering 28 EMEs throughout the period of 2009–2019. Our results show that balance sheet expansion by the Fed translates into higher portfolio capital inflows into EMEs. By contrast, portfolio capital flows to EMEs, including to European ones, do not seem to react to changes in the balance sheet conducted by the ECB.     

The relationship between currency carry trades and U.S. stocks

The article examines the relationship between daily returns of currency carry trades and U.S. stocks from January 1995 through September 2010. Carry trade and stock returns are highly correlated with no Granger‐causality in either direction. An EGARCH model shows that significant volatility spillovers flow from the stock market to the carry‐trade market, but not vice versa. The markets are more correlated in periods of high volatility. Volatilities in both markets also increase more with negative innovations than positive innovations. A sectoral analysis of the index suggests that volatilities of cyclical stocks have more impact than noncyclical stocks on carry trades.     

Public News Arrival and Cross‐Asset Correlation Breakdown

This study models and tests empirically the role of public news arrivals in the quote matching across single‐stock futures and underlying stock markets—a trading strategy often adopted by algorithmic traders. Our model suggests that quote return correlation across these two markets breaks down when the news uncertainty is sufficiently large and futures market makers switch from automating the quote matching process to manually analyze, monitor, and update quotes. We show empirically that the breakdown is more prominent for large stocks, and this effect of firm size falls during periods of high‐market volatility. Our empirical results are robust to the effect of distraction due to extraneous news events.     

Mean‐field games with differing beliefs for algorithmic trading

Even when confronted with the same data, agents often disagree on a model of the real world. Here, we address the question of how interacting heterogeneous agents, who disagree on what model the real world follows, optimize their trading actions. The market has latent factors that drive prices, and agents account for the permanent impact they have on prices. This leads to a large stochastic game, where each agents performance criteria are computed under a different probability measure. We analyze the mean‐field game (MFG) limit of the stochastic game and show that the Nash equilibrium is given by the solution to a nonstandard vector‐valued forward–backward stochastic differential equation. Under some mild assumptions, we construct the solution in terms of expectations of the filtered states. Furthermore, we prove that the MFG strategy forms an ε‐Nash equilibrium for the finite player game. Finally, we present a least square Monte Carlo based algorithm for computing the equilibria and show through simulations that increasing disagreement may increase price volatility and trading activity.     

The role of the IMF and the World Bank in the former Eastern Bloc countries

Although the main responsibility for carrying out economic reforms in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe lies with these countries themselves, the transformation of the Soviet-style economic system into a market economy must be made easier by support from abroad. In this the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank will play an important part.     

人民币汇率价格信息传导机制研究 ——基于离岸和在岸即期市场的实证分析

随着人民币国际化进程的不断推进,离岸与在岸的人民币即期汇率市场之间开始有均值(或波动)的相互影响。该价格信息传导机制具体表现为:两个市场之间存在均值和波动溢出效应,并且均值溢出效应不太稳定,波动溢出效应相对稳定;内部因素的变化往往会改变价格信息传导的方向和作用,而外生冲击的影响则相对有限;当期升值较快的市场往往会主导均值溢出效应,但波动溢出效应是由受政策预期影响的在岸市场所主导;利好消息会减少离岸市场的波动,但会加大在岸市场的波动。     

Does the Euro affect the dynamic relation between stock market liquidity and the business cycle?

Does Eurozone equity market liquidity affect economic growth? If so, how does the Euro currency affect the dynamic relationship between growth and stock market liquidity (macro-liquidity relation) of the Eurozone? We address these questions using data from ten Eurozone countries and the UK. The findings document the predictability role of liquidity proxies on economic growth, suggesting that stock market liquidity influences economic growth. The results reveal that liquidity increases substantially after a structural break realized around the Euro's introduction in Europe, and in all countries except Portugal we find that liquidity improvement coincides with higher growth. During periods of high exchange-rate volatility between currencies (which tend to be periods of high uncertainty and economic convergence), growth becomes highly affected by stock market liquidity movements.     

Assessing the asymmetric volatility linkages of energy and agricultural commodity futures during low and high volatility regimes

This study investigated the volatility linkages between energy and agricultural futures, including possible causes for these comovements, such as external macroeconomic and financial shocks during low and high volatility regimes. A combination of Markov-switching regressions and quadrivariate VAR–DCC–GARCH and VAR–BEKK–GARCH modeling revealed that external shocks have an asymmetric effect on the relationship of these assets with higher cross-correlations reported during high volatility regimes. This comovement effect outweighs the substitution effect between energy and agricultural products. Furthermore, the quadrivariate VAR–BEKK–GARCH model provides strong evidence of a bidirectional price volatility spillover between the agricultural and energy markets during periods of high volatility. Overall, the results suggest that energy futures can be effectively used for hedging in a portfolio comprising agricultural futures (and vice versa), while a combination of macroeconomic and financial index futures can serve as an effective hedging tool in investment portfolios comprising both energy and agricultural commodities.     

Understanding reserve volatility in emerging markets: a look at the long-run

In this paper, we examine long-run determinants of cross-country variation in reserve volatility for 30 emerging market economies from 1973 to 2000. Reserve holdings and openness are found to be the most important explanatory variables of reserve volatility. The empirical results are robust for a range of control variables, including monetary variables, the degree of financial development, and the level of indebtedness. We view these results as establishing interesting stylized facts that may be helpful in evaluating reserve volatility as a crisis indicator.     

The Effect of Government Spending on the Debt‐to‐GDP Ratio: Some Keynesian Arithmetic

According to the standard approach to the issue of public debt sustainability, fiscal austerity is the route that many countries must currently follow to reduce their debt‐to‐GDP ratios back to sustainable paths. We challenge this conventional wisdom and argue that, below full employment, an increase in government spending may paradoxically reduce the debt‐to‐GDP ratio. This claim is particularly relevant today because with Central Bank interest rates near zero there is no alternative to fiscal policy, and the only argument against increasing government expenditure as a way to fight unemployment is its supposed negative effect on the state of public finances.     

Quo vadis Wohnungspolitik?

The massive increase of property prices in some regions of Germany is a direct consequence of the ongoing financial and debt crisis. Low interest rates and high inflation expectations increase the demand for real estate. In addition to a potential price bubble risk, social problems arouse more and more public interest. Currently, many tenants are facing significant rent increases. Thus, the shortage of housing dominates the current housing policy discussions. The so-called “package for affordable building and living” includes stricter rent controls and other economic policy interventions which aim to ease the situation in the real estate market, but the interventions have the opposite effect.     

Regional differences in consumer preference structures within China

This study examines whether a single marketing strategy is sufficient to cover the Chinese market. Using data from four regions and nine industries, it finds that major regional differences in consumer preferences make regional market segmentation an attractive option. In more developed regions, consumers rely more on perceived quality and public brand image but less on quality expectations. Uyghurs care more about perceived quality and personal recognition but less about quality expectations than Han Chinese. Personal recognition is more important to southern than northern Chinese. Overall, consumer preference structures are influenced more strongly by differences in economic development than subculture.     

中国股市扩大买卖盘揭示范围的效应分析——对市场波动性影响的实证研究

2003年 12月沪深股市扩大买卖盘揭示范围,大幅提高了市场的交易前透明度。本文分别用统计假设检验和计量经济学模型,实证分析了该政策实行前后的市场波动性是否有明显变化。结果表明,买卖盘揭示范围的这次调整,对中国股市的波动性没有明显影响;来自中国证券市场交易前透明性改革的实证结果,并不支持透明性在一定程度上影响市场质量的理论观点。     

Islamic,socially responsible,and conventional market comovements: Evidence from stock indices

This article extends the literature on ethical investment risks, correlations, and comovements. Through a sample of 17 Islamic, socially responsible investment (SRI), and conventional stock indices, we investigate cointegration and dynamic correlations for the period 2005–2015. We also examine these stock indices’ responses to two major economic factors, namely, oil prices and market volatility. Our results show cointegration between Islamic, SRI and conventional stock indices, and comovements with mutual causalities. During crises, dynamic correlations tend to spike; however, quite a different pattern emerges during postcrisis periods when there is more variability in conditional covariances. Finally, we provide evidence that all three types of stock indices react positively to oil price changes, but negatively to global equity market volatility, albeit with different magnitudes. Overall, investors can obtain portfolio diversification benefits through SRI and Islamic stock indices, particularly in postcrisis periods.     

Intraday Volatility in Interest‐Rate and Foreign‐Exchange Markets: ARCH,Announcement, and Seasonality Effects

We explore the determinants of intraday volatility in interest‐rate and foreign‐exchange markets, focusing on the importance and interaction of three types of information in predicting intraday volatility: (a) knowledge of recent past volatilities (i.e., ARCH or Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity effects); (b) prior knowledge of when major scheduled macroeconomic announcements, such as the employment report or Producer Price Index, will be released; and (c) knowledge of seasonality patterns. We find that all three information sets have significant incremental predictive power, but macroeconomic announcements are the most important determinants of periods of very high intraday volatility (particularly in the interest‐rate markets). We show that because the three information sets are not independent, it is necessary to simultaneously consider all three to accurately measure intraday volatility patterns. For instance, we find that most of the previously documented time‐of‐day and day‐of‐the‐week volatility patterns in these markets are due to the tendency for macroeconomic announcements to occur on particular days and at particular times. Indeed, the familiar U‐shape completely disappears in the foreign‐exchange market. We also find that estimates of ARCH effects are considerably altered when we account for announcement effects and return periodicity; specifically, estimates of volatility persistence are sharply reduced. Separately, our results show that high volatility persists longer after shocks due to unscheduled announcements than after equivalent shocks due to scheduled announcements, indicating that market participants digest information much more quickly if they are prepared to receive it. However, contrary to results from equity markets, we find no evidence of a meaningful difference in volatility persistence after positive or negative price shocks. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21: 517–552, 2001