THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TOURISM AND TRADE IN SOUTH AFRICA

This article explores the relationship between tourist arrivals and trade in South Africa. Two analyses were conducted – a panel data analysis, which included tourism and trade data of 40 countries with South Africa, and a time‐series analysis that involved South Africa's main tourism and trade partners. Cointegration tests, Granger causality and Block exogeneity tests were used to investigate the nature of the relationship. The results of the panel data analysis show that for South Africa as a whole, there is indeed a long‐term relationship between tourist arrivals and trade, and that bidirectional causality exists. The results for the country case studies are mixed, although the evidence is stronger for the hypothesis that tourism causes trade.     

Unpacking tourism SMMEs in South Africa: structure,support needs and policy response

Small enterprise (SMME) support policy in post-apartheid South Africa has traditionally involved support initiatives in the form of ‘generic’ packages that overlook the specificities of particular sectors. In this article the specific issues concerning SMME development in tourism are investigated. Against a backcloth of a review of international scholarship on tourism small firms, the article presents findings from recent empirical investigations into the progress and problems of tourism SMME development in South Africa. Within the international scholarship and policy debates on tourism, it is argued that the South African experience is particularly distinctive in two respects: (1) the support of particular groups of tourism SMMEs linked to objectives of transformation and (2) the introduction of dedicated tourism-specific support programmes for SMME development.     

Tourism,business linkages and small enterprise development in South Africa

Although considerable attention is given to the prospects for developing small, medium and micro-enterprises (SMMEs) in South Africa's tourism economy, very little relevant research has been undertaken in this regard. In this article, the findings are presented from over 60 detailed interviews conducted with key enterprises and entrepreneurs involved in tourism, outsourcing and small enterprise development in South Africa. The aim is to examine opportunities for outsourcing and business linkage development in South Africa's tourism economy, and to investigate the difficulties that confront the tourism SMME economy through examining the status of business linkages between large tourism enterprises and SMMEs in South Africa. The South African research is located within the context of existing works on tourism and small enterprise development in developing countries.     

Authenticity,satisfaction, and place attachment: A conceptual framework for cultural tourism in African island economies

Small islands often host distinctive resources to influence their future through tourism development. Island economies in Africa have witnessed a growing number of tourists seeking authentic cultural and natural heritage tourism attractions. This paper critically examines and bridges the nexus between perceived authenticity, place attachment, place satisfaction and cultural behavioural intentions of tourists in African island economies. Adopting a theoretical framework from the authenticity literature, and the attitude-behaviour framework, this paper develops and proposes a conceptual model to investigate how authenticity of a cultural tourism attraction might influence place satisfaction, which in turn might influence levels of place attachment and prompt cultural behavioural intentions of tourists in African island economies. This research conceptually contributes to knowledge advocating the associations between constructs of authenticity, place satisfaction, place attachment, and cultural behavioural intentions of tourists in African island economies. Limitations of the study and practical implications for sustainable tourism development are discussed.     

The Future of African Trade with China under Alternative Trade Liberalization Schemes

Abstract: Evidence is gradually being built up in Africa on the full extent and rapidly growing role and interest of China in Africa. The global trade integration under the Doha Round, which is considered as the channel for fostering outward‐oriented development and generates economic and social benefits, is expected to effect more African trade with China. Our results show that with an agreement for the Doha Round, China will achieve its dominance on global trade faster than in the baseline scenario where no agreement is expected to be signed. In the long term, this impressive growth in Chinese exports to Africa is not a real value added, as China is already taking the place of the other major trade players both in African markets as well as in the markets of other regions and countries. In other words, China is expected to achieve in 10 years (2010–2020) what initially was expected to be achieved in 20 years in case of no agreement under the Doha Round, where a simple linear estimation on the evolution of Chinese exports is carried out. Our results also show that even in the case where China will offer more market access for African countries, the situation will not improve much for most of them. The reason is that Africa is still suffering from small productive capacities and a low level of diversification of its economy.     

Rethinking township tourism: Towards responsible tourism development in South African townships

Township tourism in South Africa has grown in popularity since 1994 and is considered by some to be an appropriate mechanism for stimulating local economic development. This paper suggests, however, that it is not necessarily a viable or responsible development option, since it does not automatically ensure pro-poor benefits or enhance community development. Primary research conducted in Soweto to understand visitor demand and tourism stakeholder perspectives suggests there is a demand for responsible tourism in townships. The paper contributes to South African debates about the developmental role of tourism, township tourism and local economic development, responsible tourism, and the related policy implications. It calls for responsible township tourism development in which local authorities play a vital role and recommends the development of township tourism attractions, with a focus on culture and heritage, to create unique visitor experiences.     

Policies for building post-conflict peace

Civil wars always end, but usually they restart. Globally, withinthe first ten years of the end of a conflict, 31% of them haveresumed. African conflicts are even more prone to restart thanthe global average: half of African peace restorations lastless than a decade. By applying theoretical frameworks to newlydeveloped data sets of conflict, we find that the high incidenceof peace collapse in Africa is not inevitable. to date, policieson the part of both the international community and post-conflictgovernments have been highly inefficient. Thus with better policies,the risk of peace collapse after African civil wars can be radicallyreduced. We outline some strategies that can assist war-to-peacetransition in Africa.     

THE IMPLICATIONS OF SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR THE REST OF AFRICA

This paper measures the extent to which South African economic growth is an engine of growth in sub‐Saharan Africa. Results based on panel data estimation for 47 African countries over four decades suggest that South African growth has a substantial positive impact on growth in the rest of Africa, even after controlling for other growth determinants. The estimates are robust to the effects of global and regional shocks, changes in model specification, and sample period.     

Knowledge production and publishing in Africa

This article explores the practice of ‘knowledge production’ and ‘publishing’ in Africa. Knowledge production and publishing in Africa has been and still is dominated by Western experts, most of whose interests do not serve Africa. Powerful social groups in post-colonial Africa construct knowledge about Africa from the sites of universities. Ordinary people also produce knowledge, most of which is elaborated through unwritten forms, and actually contest dominant modes of knowing. Publishing in Africa ought to be controlled by Africans if African states are to realise the dream of an African renaissance. African governments ought to invest in knowledge production and publishing. African intellectuals with university education should work with ordinary African intellectuals to create new sites of knowledge. Knowledge production and publishing is not an ideologically neutral phenomenon. Therefore, African governments should create, and not thwart, conditions conducive to knowledge production and publishing that is self-interrogating.     

International perspectives on tourism‐led development: some lessons for the SDIs

The concept of tourism‐led socio‐economic development is neither new nor peculiar to South Africa. This study draws on the international experience of the Malindi‐Mombasa coastal development corridor in Kenya, the Goa Coast of India, the Kulu Valley and Bhutan in the Himalayas, the Gambia, Dominica, Belize and the Maldives. It assesses the results achieved in these tourism programmes against the strategic objectives of those South African SDIs that place a heavy emphasis on the country's tourism potential. The SDIs, as described elsewhere in this collection, represent a new paradigm adopted by the South African government, aimed at moving away from a protected and isolated approach to economic development, towards one in which international competitiveness, regional cooperation and a more diversified ownership base are paramount. The key objectives of the tourism‐led development corridors, including the Wild Coast and Lubombo SDIs, are to generate sustainable economic growth and development; generate sustainable long‐term employment creation; maximise the extent to which private sector investment and lending can be mobilised into the process; change the ownership base of the industry so that people previously excluded from the mainstream of the economy by discriminatory practices can play a meaningful role as workers, managers and owners of new tourism enterprises; and to exploit the opportunities that arise from new tourism and ecotourism developments for the creation of upstream and downstream business opportunities, especially small businesses owned by previously marginalised groups.     

The impacts of tourism investment on rural communities: Three case studies in South Africa

Significant research, both locally and internationally, has been undertaken on tourism development and its impacts on the empowerment of rural communities. This article analyses the extent to which three tourism projects in South Africa, namely the Makuleke tourism initiative, Umngazi River Bungalows and the commercialisation of Manyeleti Game Reserve, have improved the livelihoods of rural communities and contributed to rural economic development. The projects are analysed in terms of both their economic and non-economic benefits, as well as their contribution towards the attainment of certain key policy objectives of the South African government.     

Would a single regional visa encourage tourist arrivals in southern Africa?

Although many studies have been done of factors impeding Africa's development as a tourism destination, few have focused on southern Africa, and to date none have questioned whether the current visa requirements affect the region's tourism industry. This paper investigates the potential impact of the so-called Univisa, a single visa for the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region proposed by SADC and the Regional Tourism Organisation of Southern Africa. It examines the possible effect of visa requirements on a destination's accessibility and visitor numbers. Two surveys revealed that inbound and outbound tour operators were relatively positive about the benefits the proposed Univisa would bring, but were concerned about other factors hindering tourism development in the region. The study revealed the complexities of a regional visa and found that even though a regional visa might alleviate some problems, it cannot be seen as an answer to the slow development of tourism in this region.     

Tourism and welfare in Sub-Saharan Africa: a theoretical analysis

Using the standard theoretical model of trade, we study thewelfare effects of tourism for developing countries with particularreference to Sub-Saharan Africa. We show that tourism can reducewelfare for trade regimes dominated by export taxes or importsubsidies. In addition, we argue that tourist immiserisationis possible for Sub-Saharan Africa. Finally, we show that directforeign investment in tourism, is for the most part, beneficial.     

Tourism development in the SADC region: The opportunities and challenges

This article presents an assessment of recent tourism performance in the countries of the Southern African Development Community region, as well as an evaluation of future prospects. It examines growth rates and source markets in developing a profile of current tourism to the region. It identifies and assesses the current and probable future impact of a range of issues and problems, which are serving either to help or hinder tourism development. It suggests necessary actions for facilitating the accelerated development of tourism. The article also analyses the countries' tourism development policies and their competitive standing with other parts of Africa and other world regions from the market's viewpoint. It evaluates future growth prospects for the region by relating these various strands of analysis to the assessments made in the World Tourism Organization's Tourism 2020 vision study. The conclusion is one of qualified optimism: the natural and sociocultural resources of the region match the growing tastes of the international tourism market but, without concerted action to improve international access and tackle the major (real and imagined) threats to tourist safety prevailing in the region, growth rates will continue to be below their potential. The region's physical remoteness from the military theatre of action consequent to the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States could well bring the countries of the SADC, and especially South Africa, some benefit from being perceived in tourist-generating markets as safe from these activities.     

Innovation in Africa: Why Institutions Matter

Given the role that innovation plays as an engine for economic development, we examined the enabling factor of institutions in Africa. Particularly, attention was given to determining the equivalent effects of institutional development on innovation. A sample of 40 African countries over the period 1996‐2012 was employed, and our baseline equation was estimated using the system generalised method of moments (SGMM) estimation technique. The empirical result reveals that government effectiveness and regulatory quality are two institutional measures that have the most equivalent impact on innovation. The extent of impact is an indication that institutions matter, especially when considering innovation in Africa. Therefore, to advance the rate of innovation in Africa, improving frameworks to drive regulations and enhance government effectiveness is a necessary instrument. Having these in place, Africa will be able to catch up with advanced economies.     

Tourism industry reaction to climate change in Kgalagadi South District,Botswana

Climate change and adaptation have become major issues in contemporary tourism development and policy discussions, especially in southern Africa where the tourism industry is largely based on the natural environment and wildlife. Previous studies on tourism and climate change have mainly focused on the global north and snow-based winter tourism activities. This study aimed to fill the gap by examining tourism operators' perceptions of climate change in Kgalagadi South District, southwest Botswana, and looking at their adaptation strategies, if any. It was found that these operators were aware of the general impacts of climate change but most saw no impacts on the tourism industry and none recognised any impacts on their own operations. Most did, however, envisage challenges to future business growth and Botswana's tourism competitiveness. The perception that climate change did not currently have any impacts may explain why there were almost no adaptation strategies in place.     

The South African Financial Cycle and its Relation to Household Deleveraging

This paper considers the extent to which South African households have deleveraged, since the global financial crisis of 2007/2008. We extend the official South African Reserve Bank business cycle methodology to date financial cycles, from which we identify the peaks and troughs of the South African financial cycle going back to 1966. Our composite financial cycle index peaks in April 1974, January 1984 and May 2007; it has bottomed out in July 1979 and February 1999. Thus, we still await the trough. We further compare and contrast the deleveraging process in the current downward phase to the experiences from previous financial cycles. We find that the average period of the financial cycle in South Africa is much longer (approximately 17.3 years) than that of the business cycle (approximately 5.8 years), and that deleveraging has not yet matched the degree of deleveraging seen in previous downward phases. Our results suggest that further deleveraging is necessary, before we can expect to turn the financial corner.     

Modelling nature-based tourism impacts on rural development and conservation in Sikunga Conservancy,Namibia

Community-based natural resource management and nature-based tourism often go hand in hand to drive conservation and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa. However, the complementarity of the two strategies is controversially discussed in the literature. Built on survey data from 200 households conducted in 2012 we analysed the trade-off between conservation and development objectives by means of a mathematical programming model representing the economy of a rural conservancy in Namibia. We found that in the scenario describing unrestricted resource extraction, local communities mainly benefit from fishing and utilising forest products. In comparison, the scenario representing the social optimum, implying sustainably managed fish stocks and appropriate diets for community inhabitants, shows that community households increase agricultural diversification and shift livelihoods towards tourism employment.     

Are Determinants of Portfolio Flows Always the Same? ‐ South African Results from a Time Varying Parameter Var Model

The literature on determinants of cross‐border capital flows has consistently assumed the determinants of such flows to be constant throughout the sample. This paper investigates this notion by estimating the time varying relationship between portfolio flows to South Africa and two widely accepted determinants of such flows: the sovereign spread and global risk (measured by the CBOE Volatility Index, henceforth VIX). The results show that the time variation is highly significant and a constant parameter model will give biased estimates of the effects of risk on capital flows. The paper also gives important insights to South African policy makers and financial practitioners: Bond flows (non‐resident purchases of South African bonds) have become more sensitive to the VIX after 2010. Share flows were particularly sensitive at the peak of the 2008 global financial crisis, but have at other times not responded in a statistically significant manner to changes in global risk. The relationships are estimated using a time varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP VAR) model with stochastic volatility.     

China and India's Growth Surge: Is it a curse or blessing for Africa? The Case of Manufactured Exports

Abstract: In this paper, we address two major questions. First, the question of whether China and India are displacing the African manufacturing export from the third market. Second, whether there is an evidence of shifting comparative advantage from China and India to Africa. We employed a gravity model with a panel data using 13 African exporters of clothing and accessories for the period 1995–2005 to answer the first question. To answer the second question, we used a flying‐geese model and estimated Spearman's rank correlation coefficients on indices of the revealed comparative advantage vectors of the African exporters and China and India for the same period. Both the gravity and flying‐geese models predicted similar outcomes. We found that there is strong evidence that China has been displacing African manufactures from the third market while India has been complementing it in the early years of the study. However, the overall third market impact of China and India has been that of complementarity in the later years of the study period. This result is found to vary across countries. Furthermore, we found evidence of shifting comparative advantage from China and India to Africa as the flying‐geese theory predicts, South Africa being the leading goose followed by Kenya. The major implication of the study is that, in the world where China and India are reshaping the global economic order dynamically, the outcomes of the traditionally received wisdom of trade liberalization and industrialization policies through export promotion may be uncertain and requires strategic thinking.