What drives the systemic banking crises in advanced economies?

This paper examines the drivers of post-war “systemic” banking crises in advanced economies. Using binary response models and a balanced panel of data, we show that persistently large departures from the long-run trend in housing and stock markets best predict the crises. Similar deviations in credit markets do not add to the explanatory power of the model that combines housing and stock market dynamics. Indicators capturing financial market risk perception also have high explanatory power. These findings indicate that extrapolative forecasts and neglect of tail risk drive asset market boom-bust cycles and systemic banking crises. Cycles in credit markets are driven by cycles in real-estate and stock markets before the crises. Additionally, capital inflow bonanzas fuel the stock and credit booms that spark systemic crises.     

Real-Estate Risk Effects on Financial Institutions’ Stock Return Distribution: a Bivariate GARCH Analysis

This paper examines two relationships using the bivariate generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) methodology. First, the relationship between equity returns of commercial banks, savings and loans (S&Ls) and life insurance companies (LICs), and those of the real-estate investment trusts (REITs), a proxy for the real-estate sector performance. Second, the relationship between conditional volatilities of the stock returns of these financial intermediaries (FIs) and that of REITs. The former relationship allows the spillover of returns between the real-estate and the financial intermediation sector to be analyzed. The latter allows an investigation of the prevalence, direction and strength of inter-sectoral risk transmission to be carried out. Several interesting results are obtained. First, the equity returns of the FIs considered follow a GARCH process and should be modeled accordingly. Second, as found in the literature, returns on REITs should be modeled using the Fama-French multiple factor model. However, this model has to be extended to incorporate a GARCH error structure. Third, all FI returns considered are highly sensitive to REIT returns and the effects are both statistically and economically significant. This is an indication that shocks to REITs returns spillover to the former markets. Fourth, spillover of increased volatility in the real-estate sector to S&Ls and LICs is significant but not to commercial banks.     

Insurance Derivatives: A New Asset Class for the Capital Markets and a New Hedging Tool for the Insurance Industry

The number and severity of natural catastrophes has increased dramatically over the last decade. As a result, there is now a shortage of capacity in the property catastrophe insurance industry in the U.S. This article discusses how insurance derivatives, particularly the Chicago Board of Trade's catastrophe options contracts, represent a possible solution to this problem. These new financial instruments enable the capital markets to provide the insurance industry with the reinsurance capacity it needs. The capital markets are willing to perform this role because of the new asset class characteristics of securitized insurance risk: positive excess returns and diversification benefits.
The article also demonstrates how insurance companies can use insurance derivatives such as catastrophe options and catastrophe-linked bonds as effective, low-cost risk management tools. In reviewing the performance of the catastrophe contracts to date, the authors report promising signs of growth and liquidity in these markets.     

Trading strategies with partial access to the derivatives market

This research analyzes trading strategies with derivatives when there are several assets and risk factors. We investigate portfolio improvement if investors have full and partial access to the derivatives markets, i.e. situations in which derivatives are written on some but not all stocks or risk factors traded on the market. The focus is on markets with jump risk. In these markets the choice of optimal exposures to jump and diffusion risk is linked. In a numerical application we study the potential benefit from adding derivatives to the market. It turns out that e.g. diffusion correlation and volatility or jump sizes may have a significant impact on the benefit of a new derivative product even if market prices of risk remain unchanged. Given the structure of risk investors may have different preferences for making risk factors tradable. Utility gains provided by new derivatives may be both increasing or decreasing depending on the type of contract added.     

An analysis of real-estate risk using the present value model

The current study uses a present value model that allows for a time-varying expected discount rate in conjunction with a VAR process to decompose real-estate risk. The study finds that the variance ofunexpected returns accounts for most of the total risk with cash-flow risk accounting for twice as much of the unexplained real-estate risk although discount rate risk is also an important factor. This dominance of cash-flow risk is found to result in a weaker mean reversion process for real estate relative to stocks. Another finding is that real estate investors tend to become apprehensive about the future when news on future cash flow is good, and thus they demand higher expected future returns.     

Controlling the incentive problems in real estate leasing

This paper develops a formal model that characterizes potential conflicts of interest between real-estate landlords and tenants. The model demonstrates a tenant's incentive to undermaintain or overuse (i.e., abuse) a leased property while highlighting the moral hazard problem as a cause of the failure of the lease irrelevance proposition. As a consequence, the lease irrelevance proposition's faiure implies that if tenant abuse incentives are left unrestricted, the market for leased real estate may cease to function.The efficacies of various lease arrangements suggested by Smith and Wakeman (1985) and other researchers in controlling the tenant abuse incentives are evaluated in this framework as a means of counteracting the inherent problems. Our analysis supports the greater use of variable lease schemes (e.g., security deposits and penalty clauses), which peg real-estate lease rates to the level of property abuse rather than more traditional fixed payment contracting arrangements.     

Derivatives and systemic risk: Netting, collateral, and closeout

In the U.S., as in most countries with well-developed securities markets, derivative securities enjoy special protections under insolvency resolution laws. Most creditors are “stayed” from enforcing their rights while a firm is in bankruptcy. However, many derivatives contracts are exempt from these stays. Furthermore, derivatives enjoy netting and closeout, or termination, privileges which are not always available to most other creditors. The primary argument used to motivate passage of legislation granting these extraordinary protections is that derivatives markets are a major source of systemic risk in financial markets and that netting and closeout reduce this risk. To date, these assertions have not been subjected to rigorous economic scrutiny. This paper critically re-examines this hypothesis. These relationships are more complex than often perceived. We conclude that it is not clear whether netting, collateral, and/or closeout lead to reduced systemic risk, once the impact of these protections on the size and structure of the derivatives market has been taken into account.     

松绑外资进入房地产业得不偿失

外资进入中国房地产市场所带来的风险及危害是难以预计的,而试图通过简化和放宽有关手续的方式来为外资进入房地产市场松绑,进而增加FDI,实在是得不偿失。     

统一监管:我国埸内衍生品监管模式的选择

本文基于国际场内衍生品的发展趋势,提出我国的场内衍生品监管模式应有利于提升衍生品交易所竞争力、鼓励场内衍生品市场创新、控制金融风险、提高监管效率和避免监管冲突与遗漏,从这些标准出发,本文对不同监管模式进行了分析,认为我国场内衍生品监管应选择统一监管模式。     

Recent Developments in Credit Markets

We summarize recent developments in the credit derivative markets. We show the role of dependence between individual debtors in portfolio derivatives in a study of implied correlation. The risk of changing dependence structures between stock and bond markets becomes evident in an example of capital structure arbitrage. How credit derivatives can introduce new risks is illustrated by the example of “overlay” in basket derivatives.     

信用衍生品市场的国际经验与中国发展——基于金融结构和宏观稳定的分析

信用衍生品是国际资本市场上最具创新性的金融工具之一。发展信用衍生品市场不仅可以转移金融机构的信用风险,同时也可以缓解金融脱媒问题,防止资本市场快速膨胀、扭曲银行和金融体系。然而,信用衍生品也有其另一面。美国金融危机显示信用衍生品与金融结构具有复杂的联系机制,可能冲击宏观稳定。本文提出,我国应深入剖析美国的信用衍生品市场与金融结构关系,跟踪国际市场的改革和发展方向,探索符合国情的信用衍生品市场发展道路。     

Financial derivatives and bank risk: evidence from eighteen developed markets

We examine the relationship between equity risk and the use of financial derivatives with a sample of 555 banks from eighteen developed markets from 2006 to 2015. Our main findings suggest that banks’ use of financial derivatives increased their risk. This increase in risk can be driven by banks’ use of derivatives for speculative purposes, by suboptimal hedging to obtain hedge accounting status, or from accounting mismatches that generate volatility in earnings. We also show that this relationship is nonlinear. Too-Big-To-Fail banks and those that employ a traditional retail banking business model are subject to lower idiosyncratic risk. We address endogeneity concerns using instrumental variables capturing the use of derivatives with portfolio ranking. Overall, our study contributes to understanding the impact of derivatives use on bank risk and the risk consequences of a bank’s business model choice.     

Forecasting Emerging Market Exchange Rates from Foreign Equity Options

The use of derivatives to infer future exchange rates has long been a subject of interest in the international finance literature. With the recent currency crises in Mexico, Southeast Asia, and Brazil, work on exchange rate expectations in emerging markets is of particular interest. For some emerging markets, foreign equity options are the only liquid exchange‐traded derivatives with currency information embedded in their prices. Given that emerging markets sometimes undergo currency realignment with discrete jumps in their exchange rate, estimation of risk‐neutral probability density functions from foreign equity option data provides valuable evidence concerning market expectations. To illustrate the use of foreign equity options in estimating market beliefs, we consider Telmex options around the 1994 peso devaluation and find evidence that markets anticipated the change in the Mexican government's foreign exchange policy.     

Mapping the UK interbank system

We present new evidence on the structure of interbank connections across key markets: derivatives, marketable securities, repo, unsecured lending and secured lending. Taken together, these markets comprise two networks: a network of interbank exposures and a network of interbank funding. Network structure varies across and within these two networks, for reasons related to markets’ different economic functions. Credit risk and liquidity risk therefore propagate in the interbank system through different network structures. We discuss the implications for financial stability.     

Risk and hedging: Do credit derivatives increase bank risk?

The objective of this paper is to investigate whether financial innovation of credit derivatives makes banks more exposed to credit risk. Although credit derivatives are important for hedging and securitizing credit risk – and thereby likely to enhance the sharing of such risk – some commentators have raised concerns that they may destabilize the banking sector. This paper investigates this issue in a simple model driven by costs of financial distress. The analysis identifies two effects of credit derivatives innovation – they enhance risk sharing as suggested by the hedging argument – but they also make further acquisition of risk more attractive. The latter effect, if dominant, can therefore destabilize the banking sector. The critical factor is, perhaps surprisingly, the competitive nature of the existing underlying credit markets. As these markets become more elastic the threat of destabilization increases. The paper discusses issues related to bank regulation within the context of the model.     

A Survey of Emerging Derivatives Markets

This paper summarizes theoretical and empirical research on the roles and functions of emerging derivatives markets and the resulting implications on policy and regulations. Previous studies revealed that commodity derivatives markets offered an effective and welfare-improving method to deal with price volatility. Financial derivatives markets have helped to support capital inflows into emerging market economies. On the other hand, the use of financial derivatives has led to exacerbated volatility and accelerated capital outflow. There is a consensus that derivatives are seldom the cause of a financial crisis but they could amplify the negative effects of the crisis and accelerate contagion. Previous studies of derivatives markets have supported the hedging role of emerging derivatives markets. Empirical results from a few emerging countries suggest a price discovery function of emerging futures markets. The findings on the price stabilization function of emerging derivatives markets are mixed. Finally, recent research has documented that constructive development of derivatives markets in emerging market economies needs to be supported by sound macroeconomic fundamentals as well as updated financial policies and regulations.     

The Perfect Storm: Hurricanes, Insurance, and Regulation

The intense hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 caused considerable instability in property insurance markets in coastal states with the greatest problems occurring in Florida and the Southeast. Insurers have substantially raised rates and decreased their exposures. While no severe hurricanes struck the United States in 2006 and 2007, market pressures remain strong given the high risk still facing coastal states. These developments generate considerable concern and controversy among various stakeholder groups. Government responses have varied. In Florida, political pressures prompted a wave of legislation and regulations to expand government underwriting and subsidization of hurricane risk and constrain insurers' rates and market adjustments. Other states' actions seem more moderate. In this context, it is important to understand how property insurance markets have been changing and governments have been responding to increased catastrophe risk. This article examines important market developments and evaluates associated government policies. We comment on how regulation is affecting the equilibration of insurance markets and offer opinions on policies that are helpful and harmful.     

构筑我国金融衍生品市场安全网的若干思考

金融衍生品市场在为市场参与者提供有效风险管理工具的同时,又因其强大的杠杆特性也曾给金融衍生品市场带来了灾难性的损失。本文在客观阐述金融衍生品本质特征和主要风险表现的基础上,以中信泰富事件为线索,分析了导致衍生品交易重大亏损的主要原因,从立法、市场、内控和人才等方面提出如何构建我国金融衍生品市场安全网的建议。     

Valuing futures and options on volatility

This paper presents simple closed-form expressions for volatility futures and option prices and examines their implications for the characteristics of these securities. We show that the properties of these volatility derivatives are fundamentally different from those of conventional option and futures contracts. This analysis also provides insights into the role that volatility derivatives may play in managing and hedging volatility risk in financial markets.