中国政府债务可持续性和债务风险动态评估研究

债务杠杆率和债务可持续性是评估债务风险的两个重要指标。我国目前面临高政府债务杠杆率、高赤字率及经济下行压力。本文通过对债务杠杆率计算方法的分解以及对债务可持续性的分析发现:提高政府部门的投资效率将是降低当前政府部门债务杠杆的一个有效手段;当前国际所通用的债务上限标准并不适用于我国。本文还通过构建SVAR模型,进一步对我国债务情况进行了实证分析,发现财政赤字率和经济增长率的变化在当期对债务杠杆率产生的影响较小,其影响主要发生在其后的两到三年。针对这一分析结果,本文提出了相应的政策建议。     

我国地方政府债务可持续性的综合分析框架

本文首先从地方政府的或有负债、债务安全性指标、资产负债表视角对当前我国地方政府的债务可持续性现状进行了静态分析,其次从跨期预算约束角度对政府债务可持续性进行了动态评估,最后根据地方政府债务性风险产生的原因,提出防范、化解和处置我国地方政府债务风险的建议.     

Corporate Insurance and Debt: The Case of China*

Finance theorists have long argued that corporate purchases of property insurance can reduce the probability and hence the expected costs of financial distress. And by so doing, the corporate use of insurance can reduce borrowing costs and/ or increase debt capacity, reduce the overall cost of capital, and increase firm value. This article attempts to apply this argument to the case of publicly traded companies in China, which provides a particularly interesting environment given the significant presence of both foreign direct investment and state shareholdings in its corporate sector. From their study of several hundred Chinese companies during the period 1997‐2003, the authors report the following conclusions: Companies with higher borrower costs tend to purchase more property insurance, which in turn has the effect of increasing their debt capacity. Smaller companies are more likely than larger firms both to insure their assets and to purchase more property insurance (as a percentage of assets), reflecting their greater vulnerability to financial shocks and larger potential benefit from insurers' real advisory services (such as loss prevention advice). Companies with more and larger growth opportunities are more likely to purchase insurance, reflecting their higher expected costs of financial distress (from possible underinvestment) than firms with limited growth opportunities. Companies with higher levels of state ownership tend to insure their assets to a greater extent, suggesting that the managers of such companies insure to protect their job security, particularly as the availability of state subsidies to the Chinese corporate sector has declined since market reforms were initiated in 1978.     

政府负债风险控制：影响政府会计改革的重要因素

政府会计与政府负债风险控制有着密不可分的关系。政府负债风险控制目标实现的关键取决于政府会计所提供的政府负债信息的质量。本文从政府负债风险控制的角度,以政府会计提供政府负债风险控制所需信息为出发点,分析了政府负债风险控制对提供政府负债信息栽体的政府财务报告和决定政府负债信息质量的政府会计基础的影响。     

财政限制下政府债务与通货膨胀研究

随着人口老龄化,许多发达经济体都步入了财政压力时代,政府对养老金的承诺大大高于财政收入,政府为了实现承诺将利用发行新债务进行融资,这将带来未来的高税收预期.随着债务水平和税率水平的上升,人们对税收的容忍度将下降,从而触碰财政限制的可能性增大.在采取固定税率情况下,调整税收不再能稳定债务,必须采取政策转变来应对.在财政限制之前债务增长与政策调节如何相互作用,若采用货币政策的被动调节来满足稳定债务,那么政府债务将影响到通货膨胀,从而使货币政策失去对通货膨胀的控制,进而需要通过财政政策来解决通胀问题.     

财政分权、预算软约束与地方政府债务

本文聚焦“地方政府债务悖论”,运用财政分权理论,以预算软约束为视角,解析地方政府过度举债的机制。在深入阐述预算软约束的内涵和形式的基础上,联系20世纪90年代国有企业债务危机与本次地方政府债务危机经验事实,本文从理论上剖析危机重演的逻辑,揭示地方政府举债的顺周期性。     

Household Response to Government Debt: Evidence from Life Insurance Holdings

We use state‐level panel data on life insurance in force in the United States and find that a $1 increase in government debt, at either the state or federal level is associated with a $0.96 increase in the face value of the average life insurance holdings per capita for a household in the average state. This increase represents an intention to save that would almost completely offset the government debt in specific states of the world (i.e., if the insured dies). Because this state of the world is rare, the immediate increase in actual savings is only about $0.03, the cost of the additional insurance. We find, in addition, that this response occurs mainly on the intensive margin, meaning that the size of the average life insurance policy increases when government debt increases. Along the extensive margin, we find the number of policies in force falls slightly with federal debt, and rises slightly with state debt increases. The results show altruistic planning in response to changes in government debt that are consistent with Ricardian Equivalence and the long‐run neutrality of government debt.     

流动性过剩条件下政府隐性和或有债务风险分析

我国目前所面临的流动性过剩问题不是流动性能力的过剩,是流动性资产的过剩,说明商业银行贷款过程受阻和储蓄向投资转化的过程受阻.在流动性过剩条件下,银行业不良资产攀升、地方政府债务规模的扩张和央行冲销过剩流动性的成本上升以及社保基金保值增值的压力等将会加大政府隐性和或有债务风险.应建立政府债务风险预警和监控体系、加强商业银行风险监管、规范地方政府投资行为、建立多层次的社会保险准备金.     

The Evolving Market for Catastrophic Event Risk

ABSTRACT: In the last two years, the market for catastrophic event risk has witnessed important change. The first large and truly successful catastrophe (CAT) bonds have been issued. New exchanges have opened, traded contracts have been created, and indexes of CAT losses have been introduced. The array of products confronting issuers and investors has widened substantially.
This article provides a brief overview of these changes. It also takes a functional approach to diagnosing the problems in the market for CAT event risk in order to understand how future change is likely to occur. Finally, it provides information to companies looking to assess whether these new markets are useful for solving their problems.     

论我国财政风险与国债政策的可持续性

长期的计划财政积累了我国财政支付的风险 ,集中表现为赤字和膨胀的债务。笔者将在本文中从我国财政现状出发 ,立论财政风险和国债政策的可持续性正相关联 ,剖析影响国债政策可持续性的因素 ,并指出舒缓财政风险的有效途径     

Systemic Weather Risk and Crop Insurance: The Case of China

This article explores the possibility of spatial diversification of weather risk for 17 agricultural production regions in China. We investigate the relation between the size of the buffer load and the size of the trading area of a hypothetical temperature‐based insurance. The analysis adopts the hierarchical Archimedean copula approach that allows for flexible modeling of the dependence structure of insured losses. We find that the spatial diversification effect depends on the type of the weather index and the strike level of the insurance. Our findings are relevant for the current discussion on the viability of private crop insurance in China.     

Empirical Risk Analysis of Pension Insurance: The Case of Germany

The book reserve system is the most widespread method of financing occupational pension plans in Germany. The pension liabilities are mutually insured by the Pensions-Sicherungs-Verein VVaG (PSVaG) against bankruptcy. The PSVaG recently stated that the insurance system needed to be reformed. In the future, risk-adjusted premiums as foreseen for the newly established Pension Protection Fund in the United Kingdom could become feasible. We perform a credit portfolio analysis to determine the risk profile of the PSVaG. The magnitude of a tail risk event suggests that under the current financing system it can only be smoothed out over decades. Under an expected loss pricing plan insurance premiums would vary greatly. In a marginal risk contribution approach the variation of the premiums would be less pronounced.     

地方政府债务风险处置研究

本文在整体分析把握地方政府债务及其风险特征的基础上,对其现有风险处置措施的作用、不足进行分析,构建了地方政府债务风险测度指标体系,并结合实际情况提出创新和规范推进政府项目投融资、加强地方政府债务置换工作、完善政府性债务管理、合理保障地方财力等政策建议。     

基础设施公募REITs与地方政府债务风险化解

2022年新国发2号文件明确提出,将防范和化解地方政府债务风险作为保障国家经济安全的重要工作。本文基于贵州省地方政府债务风险现状及基础设施公募REITs在中国的发展情况,探究基础设施公募REITs作为权益型融资渠道,通过降低政府杠杆率在传统融资渠道模式困境中实现金融创新,并向市场注入经济发展动能,从而防范和化解地方政府债务风险。针对公募REITs推行过程中的项目筛选难度大、专业水平人才缺乏、治理机制不健全、政策仍处于探索阶段等问题,提出做好优质项目的储备和孵化、公募REITs智库组建等应对措施。本文为化解地方政府债务风险提供了有益参考,对稳步推进基础设施公募REITs后续发展具有一定的借鉴意义。     

产业结构调整与地方政府债务风险

经过多年发展,美国通过一系列监管法规,形成了一套较为完备的地方政府债务信息披露和危机管理制度。2013年7月爆发的底特律破产案,让我们得以深入了解一个城市是如何陷入债务违约困境的现实。本文通过对比两个相似产业格局的美国城市的发展现实,探讨地方产业结构调整对地方政府债务风险管理的影响,并对建立我国地方政府债务风险管理体系提出建议。     

地方政府债务预算约束的制度逻辑、规范控制与实践检验

地方政府债务预算约束是实现财政民主的必然要求,是限制政府权力的重要途径,也是保护公民财产权的有力手段.对地方政府债务预算约束需要相关的预算立法,对债务规模、债务资金支出以及举债程序予以规制.我国新《预算法》将地方政府债务纳入预算管理,对控制规模、优化结构、规范行为、化解风险等方面产生了良好的效果.     

宁夏控债“高法”

据称,上海闵行区公共预算改革之路能不断前行,在于改革的主推者为闵行区区委书记孙潮。     

国内贸易信用保险项下融资业务风险分析及相关建议

国内贸易信用保险项下融资业务是银行针对已投保中国信保国内贸易信用险的企业提供融资授信额度、并在额度内办理人民币贷款等业务,它的推出为推动信用销售的健康发展、缓解中小企业融资难的现状提供了一条有效的解决渠道。本文通过对内贸险项下融资业务的交易结构、契约关系及业务流程进行分析,重点总结了相关风险点,以期为该业务的健康发展提供建议。     

人口老龄化对地方政府债务可持续性影响研究

欧债危机爆发的重要原因之一是人口老龄化.当前我国老龄人口呈爆发式增长,地方政府债务规模以及由此引发的债务风险也急剧攀升.人口老龄化如何影响地方政府债务?人口老龄化是否威胁到地方政府债务的可持续性等是目前迫切需要回答的问题.本文选取2008-2018年全国30个省(区、市)的面板数据,构建中介效应模型和面板双向固定效应模型,实证检验了人口老龄化对地方政府债务可持续性的影响.结果表明:(1)人口老龄化对地方政府债务的影响为支出增加型而非收入减少型;(2)人口老龄化对地方政府债务可持续性存在不利影响.据此提出确定合理的养老金支出水平、优化财政养老支出结构、完善共同财政事权转移支付制度等应对人口老龄化冲击的政策建议.