Corrigendum

The Editor would like to draw the reader's attention to an error in the following article:
Lye, J.N. and McDonald, I.M. 2004, 'The Effectiveness of Incomes Policies, in Australia Bargaining and Inflation Targetting Enterprise', Australian Economic Papers , vol. 43, pp. 21–38.
On both the table of contents and p. 21 the title of this article should have read 'The Effectiveness of Incomes Policies, Enterprise Bargaining and Inflation Targetting in Australia'.     

城市化与三农问题及云南的路径选择

我国农业、农村、农民问题,一直是困扰经济发展、阻碍国家现代化实现的主要问题。就现在农村的情况而言,农民也难以富裕起来,更难以和城市居民相比。在农村,仅靠农业来解决农民问题是很难有出路的,因为农民占有的农业生产资料太少,尤其是耕地。在有限的耕地资源条件下,要想让农民富裕起来,减少农民数量是一个行之有效的途径。要从根本上解决我国的三农问题,主要途径在城市化,就是把大部分农民变成城市居民。     

Protection and the Future of Australian Manufacturing

This article was written by Richard H. Snape, Professor of Economics, Monash University. It is a revised version of a paper presented at the convention of the Institute of Industrial Economics (University of Newcastle) on 'The Future of Manufacturing Industry In Australia', Terrigal, 29 April to 1 May, 1977.     

A Solution to Two Paradoxes of International Capital Flows

International capital flows from rich to poor countries can be regarded as either too small(the Lucas paradox in a one-sector model)or too large(when compared with the logic of factor price equalization in a two-sector model).To resolve the paradoxes,we introduce a non-neoclassical model which features financial contracts and firm heterogeneity.In our model,free trade in goods does not imply equal returns to capital across countries.In addition,rich patterns of gross capital flows emerge as a function of financial and property rights institutions.A poor country with an inefficient financial system may simultaneously experience an outflow of financial capital but an inflow of FDI,resulting in a small net flow.In comparison,a country with a low capital-to-labor ratio but a high risk of expropriation may experience an outflow of financial capital without a compensating inflow of FDI.     

RETIREMENT WEALTH AND LIFETIME EARNINGS*

This article argues that a satisfactory theory of wealth inequality should account not only for the marginal distribution of wealth, but also for the joint distribution of wealth and earnings. The article describes the joint distribution of retirement wealth and lifetime earnings in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. It then evaluates the ability of a stochastic life‐cycle model to account for key features of this distribution. The life‐cycle model fails to account for three key features of the data. (1) The correlation between lifetime earnings and retirement wealth is too high. (2) The wealth gaps between earnings rich and earnings poor households are too large. (3) Wealth inequality among households with similar lifetime earnings is too small. Models in which households differ in rates of return or time preferences account much better for the joint distribution of retirement wealth and lifetime earnings.     

How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?北大核心CSSCISSCI

FROM SMITH TO KEYNES AND BACK The birth of economics as a discipline is usually credited to Adam Smith,who published The Wealth of Nationsin 1776. Over the next 160 years an extensive body of economic theory was de-veloped, whose central message was:     

Class or caste? A study on the role of caste and wealth status in school choice decision

There is a strong political opinion in India in favour of replacing caste based affirmative action with an economic class based one. We contribute to this debate by looking at the interaction of caste and wealth in school choice. We show that too rich and too poor parents behave in the same way irrespective of their caste identities—rich parents sending their children to private schools while poor parents choosing public schools for their children. The caste identity, we find, plays a role for the school choice decision made by the parents belonging to the economic middle class. Among the economic middle class parents, the ones from the privileged castes send their children to private schools, while the children of the parents from the disadvantaged castes are sent to public schools. The result is robust to alternative definitions of privileged and disadvantaged castes. For school quality choice, however, we find a monotonic relationship between wealth and school quality.     

水旱灾害与我国农业可持续发展

本文根据《中国农村统计年鉴》等有关资料,首先对水灾害对我国农业的影响及其程度进行了分析,其次对我国水旱灾害频率的发生趋势和灾情的发展趋势进行了分析,最后对我国农业防灾减灾对策进行了有益的探讨。     

Does Preferential Trade Benefit Poor Countries? A General Equilibrium Assessment with Nonhomothetic Preferences

We develop a Ricardian model of trade with nonhomothetic preferences to analyze preferential trade agreements (PTAs) among countries of different stages of economic development. The richer a country is, the more likely will PTAs improve its terms of trade, also when it is a non‐member. Rich non‐member countries are also less likely to incur welfare losses from PTAs. PTA membership only guarantees welfare gains for countries that are too poor to import the goods rich countries produce. For all other countries, the welfare effects of joining PTAs depend on the world income distribution and on the strength of comparative advantages.     

The efficiency of monopolistically competitive equilibria in large economies: Commodity differentiation with gross substitutes

A general model of commodity differentiation is developed using two different approaches to the theory of demand. It is shown that a local version of Bertrand's argument holds under reasonable conditions. If all commodities are sustitutes and sunk costs are small, there is never too little commodity differentiation relative to the optimum. Under the same conditions, monopolistically competitive equilibria are approximately perfectly competitive if the optimal collection of commodities is sufficiently rich.     

科学发展观与发展问题的破解

我们过去的发展观存在着严重缺陷,以之为指导,我国的快速发展产生了资源环境危机和贫富差距拉大的问题,严重威胁着可持续发展。而科学发展观具有明显的优越性,实现了发展观的一个飞跃,为破解发展问题提供了科学的理论指导。     

Formation of Nations in a Welfare-State Minded World

We model the endogenous formation of nations in a world economy where nations apply redistributive policies. We show that people's preference for stronger redistributive policies may lead to greater inequality in the world's distribution of income as a result of rich individuals tending to form their own nations. By the same token, stable economic integration occurs only when redistributive policies are not too strong.     

湖南油茶产业开发现状与对策

油茶在湖南分布广,而且比较集中,自然条件也十分适宜油茶生长具有作为支柱产业开发的巨大优势,但由于油茶单位面积产值过低,至今尚未成为富民产业。根据这一现状,在充分论述湖南的油茶林产业化的巨大潜力的基础上,提出行政,政策,服务,加工,营销和环境等具体的能有力地促进其产业化的对策。     

简化字由来、出路及词典霸权问题——关于和谐汉字的一种思考

本文以和谐汉字为出发点，认真探讨了简化字由来、词典霸权及中国大陆文字和文学问题。本文认为，简化字是一种历史现象，但作为一种事实文字和普及系统，却是1956年后的事。字数太少、字型结构不合理、人为制造及浓重意识形态等，是其主要问题。简化字与政治运动同步并借词典（和中小学课本）推行，且被文学和政治书籍强化，背后潜藏着一种霸权。由于干瘪和枯槁，简化字使雍容娴雅、颇具女性气质和温柔意味的汉文表意系统大打折扣。尽管如此，简化字不宜废除。但它有一条活路可走，就是回到自己的源头活水（繁体字）中被浸泡被滋润，然后像凤凰涅桀一样浴火重生。在用简识繁的同时，从后者选择一部分字补进前者以冲淡意识形态味道，然后把字型不合理和人为制造的字驱逐出去。     

UNION–FIRM BARGAINING AGENDA REVISITED: WHEN UNIONS HAVE DISTINCT PREFERENCES

In this paper we revisit the issue of the scope of bargaining between firms and unions by considering a more general union's utility function with distinct preferences and sequential negotiations. First, we compare exogenously given labour market institutions; i.e., right‐to‐manage (RTM) and sequential efficient bargaining (SEB). We show that the conventional wisdom, which states that firms always prefer RTM, no longer holds. In fact, when unions are adequately wage aggressive and have strong enough bargaining power, firms may prefer SEB negotiations; however, firms switch their preference to RTM when unions are very strong. Moreover, we show that a conflict of interest between the parties may emerge when unions are sufficiently employment oriented as well as sufficiently wage aggressive and not too strong or too weak in bargaining. Second, we analyse the endogenous choice of the bargaining agenda. We show that a rich plethora of equilibria may occur and new situations of conflict/agreement of interests between the bargaining parties arise in particular when unions are sufficiently wage‐aggressive.     

Sustainability,Optimality, and Development Policy

Considering sustainability a matter of intergenerational welfare equity, this paper examines whether an optimal development path can also be sustainable. It argues that the general “zero‐net‐aggregate‐investment” condition for an optimal development path to be sustainable in the sense of the maximin criterion of intergenerational justice is too demanding to be practical, especially in the context of developing countries. It further argues that while the maximin criterion of sustainability may be appealing to the rich advanced industrial countries, for the poor developing countries it implies equalization of poverty across generations, and as such is too costly a moral obligation to be acceptable. The paper suggests that a compromise development policy that follows the optimal growth approach but adopts certain measures to mitigate both the intergenerational and intragenerational welfare inequalities may be more appropriate for these countries. Some of the principal elements of such a policy are highlighted.     

Resource‐driven victory

The vast popularity of distributive policies in many resource‐rich countries coincided with the oil and gas price hike of 2004. However, following the sharp decline of price in the late 2014, this popularity started waning and the tendency toward more productive policies gained traction. Using a theoretical model, this paper studies the optimal composition of public spending and demonstrates that, for a sufficiently low amount of any exogenous revenue, for example, resource revenue, investing revenue in productive public good is preferable. The representative agent prefers more distributive policies as resource revenue increases. A key determinant of the optimal composition of public spending is the inherited level of productivity. Countries with too low or too high productivity both find distributive policies more appealing even for a small amount of resource revenue. Yet, they have an essential difference. Resource revenue eradicates individuals' incentive to work in countries with low initial productivity while individuals always prefer to work in highly productive countries.     

PUBLIC EDUCATION EXPENDITURES, HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT AND INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY: A TWO-STAGE EDUCATION MODEL

We show in this paper that, depending on the initial distribution of material wealth and that of individuals' abilities, economies converge in the long run towards different proportions of the skilled workforce and different levels of average wealth. We also show that the growth process raises net economic mobility, the long-run proportion of the skilled population and the long-run levels of wealth held by both rich and poor dynasties. Unless the income tax rate is too high, the increase in total public funds is associated, in the long run, with higher net mobility, a larger fraction of the skilled workers and higher levels of wealth of all the dynasties. In addition, the reallocation of public expenditures from basic to advanced education can result in lower mobility, a lower long-run size of the skilled workforce, and a lower long-run level of wealth held by rich dynasties, if the transfer of resources comes at the expense of excessively lowering the quality of education at the basic schooling level.     

中等收入陷阱的国际实证比较及对中国启示

本文通过实证对比跨越和落入中等收入陷阱两类国家在入均GDP达到3000美元到突破1万美元期间经济社会方面的差异及演变过程,给出落入中等收入陷阱国家的判断依据,揭示中等收入陷阱的实质是效率陷阱,发现落入中等收入陷阱的成因主要有教育投入不足、失业率高、消费层次低、金融配置低及贫富差距过大等。同时,对中国落入陷阱的可能性进行判断分析,并就中国如何跨越中等收入陷阱给出一些建议。     

市盈率投资策略：评价与检验

本文通过选取2001年高低市盈率组合的各20家股票，计算其2001～2005年的投资回报率并进行假设检验和相关分析。本研究发现，我国股票市场投资，无论是采用高市盈率投资组合还是低市盈率投资组合，其投资回报率基本趋同，没有明显差异。投资回报主要是和股票指数相关，而与选择高市盈率组合还是低市盈率组合基本无关。从短期来看，低市盈率股票投资回报波动更大，更具有不确定性，也更具有风险性。