Tourism,trade and growth: the case of Cyprus

Although the relationship between international trade and economic growth has found a wide application area in the literature over the years, this can not be said about tourism and growth or trade and tourism. This study employs the bounds test for cointegration and Granger causality tests to investigate a long-run equilibrium relationship between tourism, trade and real income growth, and the direction of causality among themselves for Cyprus. Results reveal that tourism, trade and real income growth are cointegrated; thus, a long-run equilibrium relationship can be inferred between these three variables. On the other hand, Granger causality test results suggest that real income growth stimulates growth in international trade (both exports and imports) and international tourist arrivals to the island. Furthermore, growth in international trade (both exports and imports) also stimulates an increase in international tourist arrivals to Cyprus. And finally, real import growth stimulate growth in real exports in the case of Cyprus.     

The Linkage Between Tourism Development and Economic Growth in Malaysia: A Nonlinear Approach

In this study, we examine the nonlinear relationship between international tourism arrival and economic growth of Malaysia by using asymmetric models over the periods 2000:1–2015:4. The results show that the tourism arrival is positively related to Malaysia’s economic growth in the long run, but there is no short-run relationship and other traditional growth factors such as trade, exchange rate and Consumer Price Index are important for economic growth in the case of Malaysia. This implies that tourism can be one of the important factors for Malaysia’s economic growth in the long run and development and can be used to stimulate the overall economic growth and hence, policy-makers should pay greater attention towards promoting inbound tourism.     

Tourism–growth nexus in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL bounds tests

This study is an attempt to test the long run relationship between international tourism and economic growth of Pakistan by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models over the period of 1972 to 2011. The initial results show that the causality runs from tourism to economic growth. Furthermore, the estimated growth regression clearly indicates that the international tourism has a significantly positive impact on the economic growth of Pakistan along with other variables like physical capital and international trade. This implies that the improvement in the tourism sector may enhance the economic growth activities in Pakistan.     

Taiwan's exports and trade imbalance against US and Japan: an empirical investigation based on error correction model

This study employs recent advances in time-series analysis, cointegration and error correction model, to examine the long-run and short-run determinants of the exports and trade imbalance between the USA, Japan, and Taiwan. The unit root tests reveal nonstationary in most of the variables. The cointegration tests affirm positive the long-run associations are between the exchange rate changes and the exports as well as the trade imbalance. Once these long-run effects are accounted for, it is found that there are evidences of short-run relationship between these variables.     

Financial market development and trade openness: evidence from emerging economies

International trade is said to be the engine of economic growth. Despite an enormous effort to explain this phenomenon, the relationship between financial market development and trade openness and integration into the world economy is still an enigma. This article investigates the relationship between financial market development and trade openness. To do this, we develop a long-run and short-run model (a bounds testing approach to cointegration) for 18 emerging economies over the period 1980 to 2011. Estimates from all models show that financial market development, including both the stock market and the banking sector, has significant effect on trade openness in both short-run and long-run phenomena in the majority of countries. Despite many similarities among emerging economies, additional evidence suggests that the link between either stock market development or banking sector development with trade openness works via each country’s specific structure.     

The J-curve: evidence from commodity trade between UK and China

China is often accused of manipulating its currency to gain international competitiveness. Previous studies have tried to address this issue by investigating the impact of yuan depreciation on China’s trade balance. Not only have they failed to establish the link between the Chinese exchange rate and its trade balance with the rest of the world but also between China and her major trading partners. In this article, we consider the China–UK trade balance and disaggregate their trade flows by commodity. Out of the 47 industries considered, we show that the real depreciation has favourable short-run effects in most industries. However, the short-run effects last into the long run only in seven cases.     

Does international tourism affect international trade and economic growth? The Indian experience

This study attempts to investigate the relationship between international tourism, trade, and economic growth in India over the period from April 1991 to July 2012. To account for potential asymmetries in the relationship, we make use of new asymmetric Granger-causality tests and frequency analysis. We show that there is bidirectional Granger-causality between trade and tourism in positive components, whereas unidirectional Granger-causality runs from tourism to trade for negative components. Moreover, we find evidence of bidirectional Granger-causality between economic growth and tourism in positive components, but unidirectional Granger-causality running from economic growth to tourism for negative components. On the other hand, the results from frequency analysis provide evidence of Granger-causality between trade and tourism, and also between economic growth and tourism, at different frequency bands.     

Malaysia-Japan Commodity Trade and Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes

Asymmetry analysis is a new norm in applied research and the link between the trade balance and the exchange rate is no exception. In this paper we investigate the asymmetric response of the trade balance of each of the 60 industries that trade between Malaysia and Japan. We find short-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance of 50 industries (including the two largest industries), short-run adjustment asymmetry in 47 industries, and short-run impact asymmetry in 30 industries. However, short-run asymmetric effects lasted into the long run only in limited number of industries. Results are industry-specific at best.     

Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? a multivariate VAR analysis

In contrast to cross-country studies, the paper investigates the relationships between trade and labour productivity for nine rapidly developing Asian countries in a time-series framework using a vector error-correction model. Independent tests on the long-run and short-run relationship between trade variables of exports and imports and productivity are conducted. The results suggest that trade has an important impact on productivity and output growth in the economy, however it is imports that provide the important?‘virtuous’?link between trade and output growth. The results indicate that exports and imports have qualitatively different impacts on labour productivity. The long-run result shows that there is no causal effect from exports to labour productivity growth for Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Taiwan and Thailand; thereby suggesting that there is no export-led productivity growth in these countries. However, significant causal effects were found from imports to productivity growth, suggesting import-led productivity growth in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Taiwan. In addition, the results indicate that imports tend to have greater positive impact on productivity growth in the long run.     

ENDOGENOUS TRADE POLICY: A TIME-SERIES APPROACH*

This paper provides a time-series analysis on the relationship between the extent of endogenous trade policy and both political and economic variables. The chosen trade policy indicator is the number of foreign-trade regulations passed each year for the benefit of a single firm or industry. The data are from Uruguay, 1925–1983. This country, which experienced an impressive economic decline, is an outstanding example of the rent-seeking society. The paper shows that endogenous regulations increased with discretionary policies, with adverse macroeconomic shocks and under dictatorship. It also shows that these regulations had a negative long-run effect on the growth rates of output and exports. The short-run effect was positive however.     

CO2 emissions,economic growth,energy consumption,trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: A panel data analysis

This paper investigates the causal relationship between energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization for a panel of new EU member and candidate countries over the period 1992–2010. Panel unit root tests, panel cointegration methods and panel causality tests are used to investigate this relationship. The main results provide evidence supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Hence, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between environment and income for the sampled countries. The results also indicate that there is a short-run unidirectional panel causality running from energy consumption, trade openness and urbanization to carbon emissions, from GDP to energy consumption, from GDP, energy consumption and urbanization to trade openness, from urbanization to GDP, and from urbanization to trade openness. As for the long-run causal relationship, the results indicate that estimated coefficients of lagged error correction term in the carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, GDP, and trade openness equations are statistically significant, implying that these four variables could play an important role in adjustment process as the system departs from the long-run equilibrium.     

Dynamic effects of trade openness on financial development

This paper employs the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach of Pesaran et al. (1999) to study the dynamic effects of trade openness on financial development. The advantage of the PMG estimator over other dynamic panel econometric techniques is that it allows short-run coefficients, speeds of adjustment and error variances to vary across countries, with cross-country homogeneity restrictions only on long-run parameters. Our results spanning 88 countries over 1960–2005 show that a positive long-run relationship between trade openness and financial development coexists with a negative short-run relationship. But when splitting the data into different income or inflation groups, this finding is observed only in relatively low-income countries or high-inflation economies.     

World Interest Shocks, Capital, and the Current Account

Macroeconomic performance in many developing countries is influenced by international credit conditions. This paper considers a developing economy that faces an upward-sloping supply function of debt. It analyzes how a particular foreign shock, a world interest shock, influences such key macroeconomic variables as output, investment, the current account, and the terms of trade in both short-run and steady-state equilibrium. An intertemporal optimizing model is used to study these issues. This approach permits characterization of the intertemporal adjustment of the indebted economy, and shows that a world interest shock lowers overall economic welfare.     

基于计量经济学模型的中国旅游服务贸易研究

中国山河锦绣,有着丰富的自然资源,自然景观和人文景观相互映衬;中国是人类文明的发源地之一,中华民族共同创造的灿烂文化构成了巨大的人文旅游资源优势。近十年来,旅游业在全球蓬勃发展,而壮丽旖旎的中国也吸引着来自世界各国的游客。旅游服务业的发展对中国服务贸易的发展有着举足轻重的影响。本文通过对中国旅游服务贸易出口的计量经济研究,找出影响因素,从而对今后中国旅游服务贸易发展提出建议。     

Impact of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between US and Hong Kong

The impact of exchange rate uncertainty on trade flows is still the center of attention in international economics. A few studies that have looked at this effect in Hong Kong have used either aggregate data between Hong Kong and the rest of the world or between Hong Kong and several of her major trading partners. They have been unable to locate any significant effect. Suspecting that existing studies could suffer from aggregation bias, we concentrate on the trade between Hong Kong and the US and disaggregate their trade flows further by commodity. Out of 140 Hong Kong importing industries and 104 exporting industries considered, we find short-run effects in the majority of the industries. The short-run effects translated into the long run in 81 of Hong Kong import industries and 51 of her export industries, a finding that contradicts previous research.     

Impact of terrorism on tourism in Turkey: empirical evidence from Turkey

This article aims at investigating the causal impact of terrorist attacks on the tourism industry in Turkey based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure for the period between 1986 and 2006. The ARDL bounds test reveals that tourism is in a long-run equilibrium level relationship with terrorism. The evidence obtained from the long-run and short-run parameter estimates indicates the existence of a negative causal effect of terrorism on tourism.     

The export effect of immigration into the USA

Much has been written on the connection between migration and international trade. Human history provides important examples of migrations leading to increased trade activity, with perhaps the most well-known example of the ‘Overseas Chinese’. This study investigates the trade-related importance of Chinese and other immigrants into the USA. Previous studies may have underestimated (or overestimated) the relationship between trade and migration with nations treated as featureless plains rather than as varied landscapes. This study contends that an understanding of the immigration–trade relationship can be improved upon by examining the specific pattern and destination of immigration into specific US states. Using state level export data to 28 immigrant source countries in 1993, a strong immigration–trade link is found, reinforcing conclusions made by previous research using country level data. The compelling connection between immigration and trade found in this study and others suggests that future changes to US immigration policies necessitate that their trade effects also be taken into account.     

The impact of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between the US and Thailand

The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows continues to occupy the international finance literature. More recent studies have deviated from the traditional approach of using aggregate trade flows and have employed trade data at commodity level. This study investigates the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the trade flows of 118 US exporting industries to Thailand and 41 US importing industries from Thailand. We find that exchange rate uncertainty has short-run effects on the trade flows of most industries. In the long-run, the main determinants of the trade flows are the level of economic activity in both countries.     

Tax-motivated transfer pricing and US intrafirm trade prices

This paper analyzes monthly data on US international trade prices between 1997 and 1999 in order to investigate the impact of tax influences on intrafirm trade prices. Results indicate that there is substantial evidence of tax-motivated transfer pricing in US intrafirm trade prices. There is a strong and statistically significant relationship between countries’ tax rates and the prices of intrafirm transactions. Controlling for other variables that affect trade prices, as country tax rates are lower, US intrafirm export prices are lower, and US intrafirm import prices are higher. This finding is consistent with theoretical predictions regarding tax-motivated income shifting behavior.     

Modeling the Australian Dollar–US Dollar Exchange Rate Using Cointegration Techniques

This paper examines the link between the Australian dollar's exchange rate and Australia's terms of trade. The US$/A$ rate is found to be cointegrated with the terms of trade, and the relationship between the two variables appears to be robust. An estimated error-correction model for changes in the nominal US$/A$ is shown to have reasonable out-of-sample predictive powers. Weak exogeneity tests within the Johansen framework indicate highly significant causality running from the terms of trade to the exchange rate but less significant causality running from the exchange rate to the terms of trade.