时事聚焦

国务院总理温家宝在十一届全国人大五次会议上向大会作政府工作报告。一系列数据公布。五年来首次调低增长预期，7．5％，这一数据一经公布，立即成为全国上下关注的焦点。这是5年来中国首次调低经济增长预期，过去4年，一直是“增长8％左右”。对于这一调整，温家宝解释说，主要是与“十二五”规划目标逐步衔接，引导各方面把工作着力点放到加快转变经济发展方式、切实提高经济发展质量和效益上来，以利于实现更长时期、更高水平、更好质量发展。     

转型后央行内部审计环境需求与建设——基于《国际内部审计实务框架》视角

一、央行内部审计转型变化与特征在过去长期探索和实践的基础上,2011年央行出台了《人民银行内审工作转型2011～2013年规划》,央行内审工作步入了全面转型与深化发展的新阶段,通过风险导向审计、绩效审计等七项内容为核心的重点转型工作的推进,央行内部审计在审计发展方向、服务范围、职能和手段等方面发生了重大的转变。1.审计方向和目标。当前人民银行内部审计发展方向从偏重于对     

我国企业内部审计的发展现状与未来趋势

本文从我国企业内部审计的现状剖析入手,探究了内部审计的发展方向:内部审计的主要职能将从监督向服务转变,审计人员从单纯的财务专家型向综合型转变,内部审计机构在公司治理结构中,将向更高层次转变,结构也将更完善,内部审计的实施将越来越多地采购外部中介机构提供的服务.将有助于企业内部审计的发展,从而为深化企业改革和增强企业发展保驾护航.     

打造大监督平台，提升内部审计在企业监管体系中的重要作用

自1983年我国第一次提出内部审计概念,截至2022年,在39年的发展历程中,从过去侧重于揭露错误和舞弊行为的财务会计事项的消极防弊审计,到现在深入贯彻落实习近平总书记在中央审计委员会上的重要讲话精神,深刻领会2021年10月新修订的《中华人民共和国审计法》立法精神,内部审计工作紧密围绕企业发展战略,形成以董事会为决策的内部审计管理体系,从事中、事后监督向事前延伸的审计理念。     

审计意见和未预期盈余对上市公司年报时间的影响

本文在分析我国特殊的制度背景的同时,研究了审计意见和未预期盈余对于上市公司年报公布时间的影响。本文研究认为,审计意见、未预期盈余的方向对于年报的时间有影响,而且股权性质也会影响年报公布的时间。     

我国企业内部控制若干问题思考

本文从内部控制的实质入手,对内部控制的目标、范围及应用等进行了拓展和深入探讨,并提出了相应的对策,希望能够促进我国企业内部控制向更规范、更健康的方向发展。     

现行经济体制下的高校内部审计

现行经济体制下的高校内部审计天津大学审计处李坤玉在市场经济的作用下，全国各高等院校已经由过去单一由国家财政拨款办学的老路，逐步向多元化筹集教育经费的方向发展。随着教育体制的改革，高等教育日益面向经济建设，加速科技向生产力的转化，兴办各种经济实体、加强...     

开展内部审计工作的新思路

一、内部审计的重要性 现代企业内部审计已经从过去的查错纠弊,发展到对企业内部控制和经营管理各方面情况的审计,涉及到生产经营管理各环节。公司或企业内部审计的目的不仅要查实单位生产经营活动是否符合国家方针、政策,法令,而且要审查企业资产、负债、损益的真实性、     

数字

中国经济夏季报 国家统计局7月15日公布的上半年宏观经济运行数据显示,投资、消费及外贸三驾马车开始协调发展,致上半年国民经济总体上保持了高增长、高就业、低通胀这样一个良好的发展态势,继续朝着宏观调控的预期方向发展。     

品牌理论研究综述

品牌理论从20世纪50年代开始受到了各国学者的关注。品牌理论研究的趋势可以概括为:从具体到抽象、从单一到综合、从浅层次到深层次。过去,学者们主要侧重于品牌理论的单方向研究。现今,如何多方向、宽视角研究品牌理论则成为国内外学者们探讨的关键问题。本文通过回顾国内外学者在不同时期对品牌理论的研究线索,希望使读者了解到未来品牌理论的研究方向。     

基于交易者预期的房地产价格变化模型

本文基于交易者预期和正反馈,建立了一个房地产价格变动模型.根据该模型,分类讨论了交易者对房地产政策预期的不同,对房地产价格演变方向的影响.研究结果表明,房地产调控政策能否有效,除取决于政策出台时间、政策力度外,还取决于其能否有效改变交易者对市场未来走势的预期.     

预期对我国住房市场政策调控效果影响的实证分析

预期对房地产行业调控政策的实施效果有着重要的作用。一般来说,从形成机制可以把预期分为静态预期、外推型预期、适应性预期和理性预期,而我国的房地产市场因其特殊性,是介于适应性预期与理性预期之间的准理性预期。通过建立住房价格调控模型并进行实证分析后,可以发现准理性预期是一种效果较好且与实际更相符的预期;预期是影响房价的最主要因素,而预期对于房价的放大效应和预期的不稳定性又使得政策调控增加了一定的难度;房价基本上与预期成正比关系。     

Motives for Intergenerational Transfers: New Test for Exchange

The question of motives for private transfers is one with important policy implications. The evidence from empirical literature has been mixed. This study proposes new tests and evidence of the “exchange motive.” It examines the key assumption on which the exchange motive model is built: that a donor's behavior is determined by his/her own expectation of receiving inter‐vivos transfers or bequests in return. Results from national data show that adult children's time transfers to their aging parents were positively associated with their expectation of inter‐vivos financial transfers, but not with their expectation of receiving bequests.     

Optimal policy in Markov-switching rational expectations models

In this paper we consider the optimal quadratic control problem of Markov-switching linear rational expectation models. These models are general and flexible tools for modelling not only regime but also model or parameter uncertainty. We show, first, how to find the solution of a Markov-switching linear rational expectation model. Based on this solution we then show how to apply dynamic programming to find the optimal time-consistent policy and the resulting Nash-Stackelberg equilibrium. Suitable modifications of the algorithm allow to deal with the (non-RE) case in which the policymaker and the private sector hold different beliefs or probabilities over regime change. We also show how the optimisation procedure can be employed to obtain the optimal policy under commitment. As an illustration we compute the optimal policy in a small open economy subject to stochastic structural breaks in some of its key parameters.     

基于市场利率波动测度的货币政策操作风险研究

在货币政策操作过程中,中央银行对宏观经济形势的认识偏差,货币政策工具及政策调控时机的选择不当,以及政策信息的披露不及时等,都有可能误导公众预期,增加市场不确定性,从而引致货币政策操作风险。文章通过利用中国货币市场上同业拆借和债券回购的利率数据进行实证,结果表明,中央银行政策操作透明度不高以及对宏观经济形势进行判断的前瞻性不足,是引致我国货币政策操作风险的重要原因。     

Liquidity traps and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?

We examine global dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in New Keynesian models where the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. The intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Unstable deflationary paths emerge after large pessimistic shocks to expectations. For large expectation shocks that push interest rates to the zero bound, a temporary fiscal stimulus, or in some cases a policy of fiscal austerity, will insulate the economy from deflation traps if the policy is appropriately tailored in magnitude and duration. A fiscal stimulus “switching rule,” which automatically kicks in without discretionary fine-tuning, can be equally effective.     

商业银行信用风险控制在助学贷款中的运用

实行助学贷款是发展教育的一项重要政策,但在实施的过程中却出现了"银行有钱贷不出"和"学生没钱贷不到"的尴尬局面,这引起了人们对这项政策的再思考。通过对产生这种现象的内在原因的分析和对银行和学生二者之间预期效用的比较分析,以及对银行和学生行为选择的分析,认为缺乏有效的抵押担保机制和良好的社会信用体系是导致这种现象的重要原因,最后从制度约束和道德约束两方面思考,减少信息不对称现象,增加学生不还贷成本,降低银行风险,不断完善助学贷款制度。     

FOOLING ALL OF THE PEOPLE

The public's expectations about government policy are a key influence on the economy and can be more important than the policy itself. By allowing the public to know that it is considering reflation outside the Medium Term Financial Strategy, the government is reducing the credibility of the MTFS. This Forecast Release draws on some of the latest developments in economic theory, in the field of 'time inconsistency', to argue that the early years of the MTFS suffered from continuing but incorrect expectations that the policy would be abandoned. To avoid repeating this mistake, the government should promptly concede the current calls for reflation if it is unable to resist them, although a preferable outcome for unemployment and inflation can be achieved by re-affirming the MTFS. A worse outcome than either of these is obtained if the government continues with the MTFS while leaving open the possibility of a sudden reflation.     

Time-consistent investment policies in Markovian markets: A case of mean–variance analysis

The optimal investment policy for a standard multi-period mean–variance model is not time-consistent because the variance operator is not separable in the sense of the dynamic programming principle. With a nested conditional expectation mapping, we develop an investment model with time consistency in Markovian markets. Furthermore, we examine the differences of the investment policies with a riskless asset from those without a riskless asset. Analytical solutions for time-consistent optimal investment policies and the resulting mean–variance efficient frontier are obtained. Finally, using numerical examples, we show that the optimal investment policy derived from our model is more efficient than that of the standard mean–variance model in which the trade-off is determined between the mean and variance of the terminal wealth.     

Summer Budget: calculated risk or reckless gamble?

• The Chancellor had created the expectation that his Summer Budget would be radical and he did not disappoint. The ‘rabbit from the hat’ was a compulsory ‘living wage’, expected to reach £9 per hour in 2020, which Mr Osborne hopes will help to compensate the lower paid for the slashing of in‐work benefits. This has effectively transferred responsibility for supporting low‐income households from the government to employers. The OBR expects this to have a relatively muted impact on employment, but this view looks pretty optimistic and the policy represents a major gamble.
• The reduction in welfare spending, plus an easing of the near‐term fiscal squeeze, has helped to smooth the public spending ‘rollercoaster’. But with a plethora of giveaways failing to disguise a net increase in the tax burden, the Budget is likely to weigh on growth prospects, even if the Chancellor's big gamble pays off.
• Alongside the Budget the Chancellor announced a new fiscal mandate, which will require governments to run a budget surplus in “normal times”. But meeting this mandate will require a fiscal stance very far from the historical norm and it will also force other sectors to move into deficit to compensate. It will also mean a looser monetary policy than would otherwise be the case. So a policy presented as creating room for fiscal policy to respond to future economic shocks could potentially narrow the scope for the more potent weapon of interest rate cuts.