Bayesian Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Analysis and Returns to Compulsory Schooling

This paper is concerned with the use of a Bayesian approach to fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) designs for understanding the returns to education. The discussion is motivated by the change in government policy in the UK in April of 1947, when the minimum school leaving age was raised from 14 to 15—a change that had a discontinuous impact on the probability of leaving school at age 14 for cohorts who turned 14 around the time of the policy change. We develop a Bayesian fuzzy RD framework that allows us to take advantage of this discontinuity to calculate the effect of an additional year of education on subsequent log earnings for the (latent) class of subjects that complied with the policy change. We illustrate this approach with a new dataset composed from the UK General Household Surveys. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Returns to Schooling and Bayesian Model Averaging: A Union of Two Literatures

Abstract.  In this paper, we review and unite the literatures on returns to schooling and Bayesian model averaging. We observe that most studies seeking to estimate the returns to education have done so using particular (and often different across researchers) model specifications. Given this, we review Bayesian methods which formally account for uncertainty in the specification of the model itself, and apply these techniques to estimate the economic return to a college education. The approach described in this paper enables us to determine those model specifications which are most favored by the given data, and also enables us to use the predictions obtained from all of the competing regression models to estimate the returns to schooling. The reported precision of such estimates also account for the uncertainty inherent in the model specification. Using U.S. data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY), we also revisit several 'stylized facts' in the returns to education literature and examine if they continue to hold after formally accounting for model uncertainty.     

Identifying and Estimating the Distributions of Ex Post and Ex Ante Returns to Schooling

This paper surveys a recent body of research by Carneiro, Hansen, and Heckman [Carneiro, P., K. Hansen, and J.J. Heckman, 2001, Fall. Removing the veil of ignorance in assessing the distributional impacts of social policies. Swedish Economic Policy Review 8 (2), 273–301., Carneiro, P., K. Hansen, and J.J. Heckman, 2003, May. Estimating distributions of treatment effects with an application to the returns to schooling and measurement of the effects of uncertainty on college choice. International Economic Review 44 (2), 361–422. 2001 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture], Cunha and Heckman [Cunha, F. and J.J. Heckman, 2006. The evolution of earnings risk in the US economy. Presented at the 9th World Congress of the Econometric Society, London], Cunha, Heckman, and Navarro [Cunha, F., J.J. Heckman, and S. Navarro, 2004, March. Separating heterogeneity from uncertainty in an aiyagari–laitner economy. Presented at the Goldwater Conference on Labor Markets, Arizona., Cunha, F., J.J. Heckman, and S. Navarro, 2005, April. Separating uncertainty from heterogeneity in life cycle earnings, The 2004 Hicks Lecture. Oxford Economic Papers 57 (2), 191–261., Cunha, F., J.J. Heckman, and S. Navarro, 2006. Counterfactual analysis of inequality and social mobility. In S.L. Morgan, D.B. Grusky, and G.S. Fields (Eds.), Mobility and Inequality: Frontiers of Research in Sociology and Economics, Chapter 4, pp. 290–348. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press], Heckman and Navarro [Heckman, J.J. and S. Navarro, 2007, February. Dynamic discrete choice and dynamic treatment effects. Journal of Econometrics 136 (2), 341–396] and Navarro [Navarro, S., 2005. Understanding Schooling: Using Observed Choices to Infer Agent's Information in a Dynamic Model of Schooling Choice When Consumption Allocation is Subject to Borrowing Constraints. Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL] that identifies and estimates the ex post distribution of returns to schooling and determines ex ante distributions of returns on which agents base their schooling choices. We discuss methods and evidence, and state a fundamental identification problem concerning the separation of preferences, market structures and agent information sets. For a variety of market structures and preference specifications, we estimate that over 50% of the ex post variance in returns to college are forecastable at the time agents make their schooling choices.     

Doubly Robust Estimation of Causal Effects with Multivalued Treatments: An Application to the Returns to Schooling

This paper provides doubly robust estimators for treatment effect parameters which are defined in a multivalued treatment effect framework. We apply this method to the unique dataset of the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70) to estimate returns to various levels of schooling. The analysis is carried out for female and male samples separately to capture possible gender differences. Average returns are estimated for the entire population, as well as conditional on having a specific educational achievement. For males, relative to no qualification, we find an average return to O‐levels of 6.3%, to A‐levels of 7.9% and to higher education of 25.4%. The estimated average returns to O‐level and A‐level relative to no qualification are insignificant for females, whereas the return to higher education is 19.9%.Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Low Wage Returns to Schooling in a Developing Country: Evidence from a Major Policy Reform in Turkey

In this paper, we estimate returns to schooling for young men and women in Turkey using the exogenous and substantial variation in schooling across birth cohorts brought about by the 1997 reform of compulsory schooling within a fuzzy regression discontinuity design. We estimate that the return from an extra year of schooling is about 7–8% for women and an imprecisely estimated 2–2.5% for men. The low level of the estimates for men contrasts starkly with those estimated for other developing countries. We identify several reasons why returns to schooling are low for men and why they are higher for women in our context. In particular, the policy alters the schooling distributions of men and women differently, thus the average causal effect puts a higher weight on the causal effect of schooling at higher grade levels for women than for men.     

Enrolment and Delayed Enrolment of Secondary School Age Children in Indonesia

We analyse the school participation decision of children between 13 and 18 years in Indonesia using the 1992 SUSENAS household survey. Our focus is on which household factors determine enrolment and delayed enrolment. We use the multinomial fixed effect model where the cluster-specific fixed effects correct for any regional-specific factors that may influence the demand for education. The model is estimated by conditional maximum likelihood. We find that parent's education has a positive effect on enrolment, where the effects are stronger for boys than for girls. On the other hand, literacy of parents has stronger effects on the girls education than on the boys'. The model without fixed effects is rejected against the model with fixed effects. Hence, omitting regional variation in the model would have led to biased estimates.     

Are Returns to Schooling Concentrated Among the Most Able? A Semiparametric Analysis of the Ability–earnings Relationships1

In this paper I explore the relationship between ability and log waves using flexible estimation techniques. I find evidence of nonlinearities in these relationships that vary across levels of schooling, and argue that ability‐sorting into higher education creates problems for accurately identifying the return to schooling over the entire ability support. Over an ability support that is “common” to those with and without a college education, I find that the college log wage premium is incerasing for the more able, and this premium grew during the period 1984–1994 for individuals at all points in the ability distribution. The growth of this wage premium over time also appears to have followed a “smoother” linear path for high‐ability individuals than individuals of lower ability.     

Returns to education in Portugal

This paper compares OLS and IV estimates of the returns to education for male workers in Portugal. The results suggest that OLS estimates of the return to education are broadly in line with results for other western economies, although they are marginally at the upper end of the scale. IV estimates of the return to education are as high or lower than those obtained with OLS. Apparently, OLS estimates provide an upper-bound of the return to education. However, due to the nature of the identifying strategy, a generalisation of the results to the entire population may be premature.     

算术平均数与调和平均数的线性规划分析

在经济分析中,算术平均数、调和平均数和几何平均数是三个常用的平均数。几何平均数主要用于计算平均发展速度,而算术平均数和调和平均数存在着特殊的关系。一般地讲,算术平均数的使用频率远高于调和平均数。那么,调和平均数是不是一种独立于算术平均数的平均数?现有两种观点:一种观点认为调和平均数是一种独立的平均数,另一种观点认为它不是一种独立的平均数,而是算术平均数的一种变形。本文认为,调和平均数与算术平均数有独立的一面,又有不独立的另一面。下面,我们从算术平均数和调和平均数的线性规划分析入手来证明。     

Reanalyzing Zero Returns to Education in Germany

Pischke and von Wachter (Review of Economics and Statistics 2008; 90 (3): 592–598) find zero earnings returns to compulsory schooling in the basic school track in Germany. We reanalyze their study using a different dataset. In an extension, we use additional instruments which allow estimation of heterogeneous effects for different groups of compliers. We can confirm the previous result and also find zero returns for other compliers in higher track schools. Moreover, we do not find a causal effect of schooling on cognitive skills. This is in line with a potential reason Pischke & von Wachter (2008) give for their result, namely that basic skills are learned earlier in Germany and additional years of schooling are no longer effective. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Product Market Competition and Returns to Talent

This paper investigates how product market competition influences the wages paid to workers and the distribution of talent across industries. We develop a model where firms facing different competitive conditions bid for workers. The model predicts that wages are increasing in talent, decreasing in competition, and the interaction between talent and competition is positive. In addition, the most talented workers will be concentrated in competitive industries and talent dispersion rises with competition. We use linked employee–employer data to test these predictions.     

Returns to scale effect in labour productivity growth

Economists acknowledge that technical progress and growth in capital inputs increase labour productivity (LP). However, less focus is given to the realization that changes in labour input alone could also affect LP. Because this effect disappears when the short-run technology exhibits constant returns to scale, we call it the returns to scale effect. We decompose growth in LP into three contributing factors: (1) technical progress, (2) capital input growth and the (3) returns to scale effect. We propose theoretical measures for these three components and show that they coincide with the index number formulae consisting of prices and quantities of inputs and outputs. Subsequently, we apply the results of our decomposition to US industry data for 1987–2009. LP in the services sector is shown to grow much slower than that in the goods sector during the 1987–1995 productivity slowdown period. We conclude that the returns to scale effect can considerably explain the gap in LP growth between the two industry groups.     

Returns to corporate diversification in the 1970s

This research analyzes the performance of large corporations during the business cycles of the 1970s. The analysis identifies the level of diversification preferred by a risk-averse investor at different stages of the business cycle. The data base is a group of 222 large industrial corporations for which the number of four-digit SIC production areas has been determined for each firm. The analytical method used is that of second-degree stochastic dominance, a method that is sensitive not only to mean differences in corporate performance but also to the skewness of profitability distributions. The findings indicate that risk-averters would prefer the ten-year performance of moderately diversified firms to the performance of firms with low levels of diversification. In addition, moderately diversified firms were preferred to highly diversified firms. Finally, the experience of the 1970s suggest that there are serious managerial diseconomies of diversification in recessions.     

Returns to research and development in the us pharmaceutical industry

Research concerning the pharmaceutical industry rate of return has concentrated on two policy issues: (1) possible resource misallocation and (2) the drug innovation environment. Accounting returns are suspect for policy purposes, requiring attention to the role of, and impact on, expectations of returns. This paper uses evidence about expectations and about resource flows into R&D consistent with those expectations to infer the level of economic returns. Our results provide evidence of a decline in expected returns, with exit of firms and resources. Regulation may be one of the major causes of the adverse shift in prospective returns from R&D investments.     

Marginal Workers and Their Decisions to Work or to Quit

Abstract . What motivates the marginal worker to decide to work or to quit and collect unemployment insurance or welfare payments? A study of poultry processing plant workers in Georgia indicates that few quit to obtain more leisure. Dissatisfaction with compensation is only a secondary factor. Primary ones are cumulative dissatisfaction with work and the total work environment. Changes in supervision and in the Job structure are suggested.     

Regional Heterogeneity in the Private and Social Returns to Human Capital

Abstract

It is thought that policies aimed at encouraging the accumulation of human capital in less productive regions can constitute a key factor in development. However, the effectiveness of this policy depends in large part on each region's capacity to give returns to human capital. The aim of this article is to demonstrate the existence of substantial spatial variations in private and aggregate returns to human capital, indicating that development policies based on stimulating the accumulation of education differ in effectiveness. Results for the Spanish regions suggest that regional variations in social returns are greater than those in private returns.     

Schooling processes and educational outcomes in France

Quality & Quantity -     

Returns to Scale and the Economic Impact of Migration

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the impact of international migration on a regional economy. It is based on the assumption that immigration causes the population of the region to grow, thereby increasing the cost of living for existing residents. In one version of the model, the government responds by increasing wages in the public sector so as to help offset the higher cost of living. The private sector follows suit. In another version of the model, wages are determined by supply and demand. The paper investigates what happens to living standards, unemployment and the location of the native population under different assumptions about returns to scale.     

Returns to education and wages in Turkey: robust and resistant regression

In this study, we follow the human capital theory for wage determination and analyze the differentials in returns to education, returns to experience and gender wage gap using usual mincerian wage equation by using OLS, robust and resistant regressions. This study presents evidence on the returns to education in Turkey. The results clearly show that for female employees, education to returns is higher than for male employees. When the results of returns to experience have been studied, it is observed that males definitely have a higher return than females in the years 2003 and 2006.     

Racial Differences in Returns to Educational Investment in the South

Abstract . The paper calculates rates of return to educational investment in the South and highlights differences in returns according to race and sex. The results of this investigation are compared with the results of earlier studies, and it appears that there has been a relative increase in the returns to Black education in the South. For most education levels, Blacks still earn lower returns than Whites, but the recent narrowing of earnings rates suggests that southern Blacks have made significant progress in their drive for equality of opportunity.