Does sport affect the competitiveness of European Union countries? An analysis of the degree of innovation and GDP per capita using linear and QCA models

The sport industry has experienced great growth in recent years worldwide, and especially in the European Union (EU) countries. However, despite the role that this industry can play in improving the competitiveness of these countries (Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and innovation performance), no studies have been found that analyse its influence. So, the main aim of this study is, firstly, to analyse the relationship between the innovation performance and the GDP per capita of EU countries, and, secondly, to find out how sport-related indicators and different innovation-related indicators influence the innovation performance and GDP per capita of the EU countries. To this end, two different methodologies have been used: hierarchical regression models and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). A total sample of 23 EU countries have been analysed. The results show that GDP per capita and innovation performance are highly correlated in a positive and significant way (0.76; p?<?.0001), and that the variables related to sport help explain the variance of these two variables, highlighting as necessary variable in both cases the growth in the sports sector (consistency >0.90). Finally, a number of practical implications are presented that can help policy makers to improve the competitiveness of EU countries.

     

What has caused China’s economic growth?

Economic growth is driven by numerous factors. However, traditional economic theory focuses on certain key reasons, while ignoring the impact of other factors. Since 1978, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth, but also faces low per capita GDP. To clarify the driving forces behind this situation, we used per capita GDP to represent China’s economic growth and performed total factor analysis based on 13 variables in 7 socioeconomic dimensions using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces over the 40 years since China opened to the west in 1978. We found similar determinants in different regressions. Internal trade, privatization and investment were the primary factors driving Chinese economic development. Surprisingly, we found that the contribution of foreign trade to economic growth (per capita GDP) was weak. Education had a much smaller contribution than science and technology. Using per capita income as the dependent variable to provide a robustness test, we found that China’s income distribution has not paralleled its economic development and the distribution of the benefits of GDP growth to citizens must be improved. China’s experience demonstrates that promoting economic growth requires coordinated development of many factors, and that different policy preferences should be adopted to meet different economic development conditions.     

Proposition 4, Tax Reduction Mirage: An Exploratory Note on Its Potential Spending and Tax Impacts

Abstract . What would the true government expenditure and tax-burden impacts of California's Proposition 4 likely be if it (or its equivalent) were enacted in all states? What happened to actual state plus local government expenditures per capita over the period FY 1970 - FY 1976 is examined. Next, we examine what would have happened to such expenditures (per capita) if Proposition 4 had been in effect over the same period. Comparing the results reveals that Proposition 4 would have exercised no significant impact over per capita state plus local spending levels. This implies that such legislation would not have resulted in significant tax reductions.     

Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach

This paper examines the causal relationships between the real house price index and real GDP per capita in the US, using the bootstrap Granger (temporal) non-causality test and a fixed-size rolling-window estimation approach. We use quarterly time-series data on the real house price index and real GDP per capita, covering the period 1963:Q1 to 2012:Q2. The full-sample bootstrap non-Granger causality test result suggests the existence of a unidirectional causality running from the real house price index to real GDP per capita. A wide variety of tests of parameter constancy used to examine the stability of the estimated vector autoregressive models indicate short- and long-run instability. This suggests that we cannot rely on the full-sample causality tests and, hence, this warrants a time-varying (bootstrap) rolling-window approach to examine the causal relationship between these two variables. Using a rolling window size of 28 quarters, we find that while causality from the real house price to real GDP per capita occurs frequently, significant, but less frequent, evidence of real GDP per capita causing the real house price also occurs. These results imply that while the real house price leads real GDP per capita, in general (both during expansions and recessions), significant feedbacks also exist from real GDP per capita to the real house price.     

公务机抵港

中国私人公务机市场被达索猎鹰、庞巴迪、湾流、豪客比奇等 一干制造商寄予了“2015年1000架”的狂热期待，而中国的富豪买家们正新奇又挑剔地打量这个炫酷的新奢侈玩具。     

On the simultaneity problem in the aid and growth debate

This paper shows that foreign aid has a significant positive average effect on real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth if, and only if, the quantitatively large negative reverse causal effect of per capita GDP growth on foreign aid is adjusted for in the growth regression. Instrumental variables estimates show that a 1 percentage point increase in GDP per capita growth decreased foreign aid by over 4%. Adjusting for this quantitatively large, negative reverse causal effect of economic growth on foreign aid shows that a 1% increase in foreign aid increased real per capita GDP growth by around 0.1 percentage points. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Culture, Economic Development, and Quality of Life: A Speculative Comment on the Case of Kerala, India

Abstract . Kerala State, India, had a per capita income of abott $290 for 1985, about the same as other Indian states. But Kerala has a Physical Quality of Life Index of 79 (compared to 43 for India). Saudi Arabia has a per capita income of $8,850 for 1985 but a PQLI of 28. How come? Of course, per capita income does not measure income distribution and India is a plural democracy while Saudi Arabia is an authoritarian monarchy. But the critical factor may well be culture.     

Can economic development boost the active female labor force?

This study explores whether the female labor force participation rate (FLFPR) can promote economic development in Asian countries. We apply the method of bootstrap panel Granger causality in order to consider the cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity to detect specific patterns of the interactive relationships between the two variables. The estimation results point out that the interaction patterns vary across countries, which is consistent with the U-shaped hypothesis. Specifically, when the economy develops, FLFPR declines in Vietnam and India, whereas economic development promotes the FLFPR in Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. More specifically, when GDP per capita lies at a relatively low level, the income effect dominates the substitution effect, resulting into the FLFPR changing in opposite direction. Nevertheless, the substitution effect holds the dominant position when the GDP per capita reaches a high level. The increase of FLFPR is accompanied by economic development due to availability of more jobs and increasing level of education. Therefore, policy makers should formulate plans in order to benefit from the potential of the female labor force by stimulating economic development.

     

基于ARMA模型的上海市人均GDP时间序列分析与预测

本文分析了上海市人均GDP水平时间序列(1978年至2008年),在将数据平稳化的基础上建立自回归移动平均模型(ARMA模型),从中找出上海市人均GDP序列变化的规律,并在此基础上对未来几年的指标数值进行了预测。     

剔除通胀因素后中国人均消费支出的实证分析

根据一般消费理论,收入和价格是决定消费两个主要因素。根据1980-2006年我国消费样本数据建立了我国消费模型,通过EVIEWS软件利用OLS方法进行参数估计,并对模型进行了检验。经过计量分析得知我国人均消费水平受GDP影响,且人均消费水平与人均CGDP呈明显线性关系。若我国人均GDP增长1%,则人均居民消费水平约增加0.71%。滞后的人均消费水平对我国当年的人均消费水平的影响是不显著的。     

Corruption and economic resilience: recovery from the financial crisis in western economies

We consider the resilience of a group of 20 Western economies after the financial crisis of the late 2000s. We measure resilience by the growth of real GDP between 2007, the previous peak level, and 2015. The countries exhibit a broad range of experience, from a rise in GDP of 18 per cent in Australia to a fall of 26 per cent in Greece. A substantial proportion of the differences in growth rates can be accounted for by just two variables: the perceived level of corruption and membership of the Eurozone. The euro did have a negative impact on the recovery paths of the Mediterranean economies (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain), but their perceived corruption scores in 2007 had a bigger impact, especially on the first three of these economies.     

The dynamics of regional inequalities

This paper analyses the link between regional inequalities and GDP per capita at the country-level. Our starting hypothesis is that the evolution of regional inequalities should follow a bell-shaped curve as national GDP per capita rises since growth by its very nature is unlikely to appear everywhere at the same time, as has been argued by a number of authors, from Kuznets [Kuznets, S., (1955), Economic growth and income inequality, American Economic Review 45(1), 1–28] to Lucas [Lucas, R.E., (2000), “Some macroeconomics for the 21st century”, Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 (1), 159–168]. We test this hypothesis econometrically using semi-parametric estimation techniques and regional data for a panel of European countries. Our results provide strong support for such a bell-shaped curve and are robust to changing the regional administrative units and the time period, as well as controlling for other possible determinants of regional inequalities. We also find support for this hypothesis when considering non-European countries.     

中美两国经济实力与潜力的比较分析

改革开放以来,经过30多年的发展,中国已重新成为全球经济大国之一。本文利用C-D生产函数和索洛增长模型对中国中长期经济发展进行预测,在国内外研究成果的基础上对美国中长期经济发展进行预测,探讨了在不同情况下中美两国经济的对比分析和追及问题。本文预测结果表明,中国经济只要保持平稳增长,将在2030年前实现多个目标：一是GDP总量超过美国;二是人均GDP超过1.7万美元;三是人均国民总收入接近高收入国家行列;四是商品零售额、商品进口额等宏观指标赶上美国。     

Global growth to 2024: reversion to which mean?

• We expect global GDP growth to average 3.5% per year (at PPP exchange rates) over the next ten years. This is lower than the 3.8% recorded in 2000–14 though not dramatically so. There will be a modest recovery in advanced economy growth ‐ but not to pre‐crisis rates. Emerging market (EM) growth will slow but remain faster than growth in the advanced economies. And with EM's share in world GDP much increased from 10–15 years ago, EMs will continue to provide a large proportion of world growth.
• EM growth is expected to run at around 4.5% per year in 2015–24, well down on the 6% seen in 2000–14. This includes a slowdown from around 10% to 5–6% in China ‐ but China's share in world GDP has risen so much that China's contribution to world growth will remain very substantial.
• Advanced economies are forecast to grow by 1.9% per year in 2015–24, a big improvement from the 1% pace of 2007–14 (which was affected by the global financial crisis) but below the 1990–2014 average. Indeed, the gap between forecast G7 GDP and GDP extrapolated using pre‐crisis trends in potential output will remain large at 10–15% in 2015–24.
• Global growth will remain relatively strong compared to much longer‐term averages: growth from 1870–1950 was only around 2% per year. But a return to such low growth rates looks unlikely; China and India were a major drag on world growth until the 1980s but are now fast growing regions.
• Our forecast is relatively cautious about key growth factors; the contribution of productivity growth is expected to improve slightly, while those from capital accumulation and labour supply fall back. Demographics will be a more severe drag on growth from 2025–40. Overall, risks to our long‐term forecasts look to be skewed to the downside.

     

World Economic Prospects

Overview: Oil price slump boosts growth forecasts

• Oil prices have fallen further over the past month, with Brent dropping below US$50 per barrel. Prices are now down over 50% from their June 2014 peak levels. We do not expect any significant supply response (either from Saudi Arabia or US shale producers) to come through until late this year so low prices will persist for some time.
• This is a positive development for world growth, though the impact will be uneven across countries. Based on our new oil price forecast of US$55/barrel for 2015, we estimate that the oil bill for ten leading industrial economies, (accounting for over 60% of world GDP) will be US$440 billion lower than it would have been based on our June 2014 oil forecasts.
• This is around 1% of their combined GDP, money potentially free to be spent on other goods and services, including those of their main trading partners.
• US consumer sentiment already shows signs of reacting positively and with other US consumer fundamentals also improving we have upgraded our 2015 GDP growth forecast to 3.3% from 3% last month.
• We have also upgraded our forecasts for other advanced economies such as the Eurozone and Japan, where lower prices should be a flip to hardpressed consumers in particular.
• For the emerging markets, the slide in oil has starkly different consequences for different countries. Oil producers will be losers, most strikingly Russia where we now see GDP down over 6% this year – with financial instability exacerbating the oil effect. But China and India should both gain.
• Lower oil prices will also ease the external pressures some emergers have felt in recent months – reducing the risk of further hikes in domestic interest rates resulting from inflation and currency pressures.
• We now see world growth at 2.9% in 2015, up a tenth from last month and an increase from 2.6% growth last year. This is our first upgrade to the global growth forecast since August 2014.

     

Subjective Well‐Being and Income: A Re‐Examination of Satiation Using the Regression Kink Model With an Unknown Threshold

A methodological challenge in testing Easterlin's paradox, which states that increasing income fails to boost happiness beyond a satiation point, lies in the determination of this threshold if it exists. In the existing literature, various levels of GDP per capita have been chosen based upon visual inspection of the scatter plots of the data. The estimated income–well‐being gradients are sensitive to the choice of such kink points. We first replicate the results in Stevenson and Wolfers (American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 2013; 103 (3): 598–604), then apply the methods proposed in Hansen (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 2016), which estimate the regression kink model with an unknown threshold, to the data in Stevenson and Wolfers ( 2013 ) to re‐examine the two modified versions of Easterlin's hypothesis. In most cases, we do not find the existence of any kink point. In the few cases where a kink point is detected, the estimated kink point thresholds are different from those chosen in the previous literature. Overall, we find no evidence of a satiation point, which is in support of Stevenson and Wolfers ( 2013 ). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An assessment of human development,by region and country

The United Nations Development Program has introduced a composite index—the Human Development Index (HDI)—as a measure to replace GDP for assessing development of countries, using life expectancy, adult literacy, and adjusted per capita GDP as indicators. In this paper the authors suggest an alternative method for computing the index utilizing the same criteria.     

Economic growth, size of the agricultural sector, and urbanization in Africa

This paper uses variations in international commodity prices and rainfall to construct instrumental variables estimates of the within-country effect that changes in the size of the agricultural sector and GDP per capita growth have on the urbanization rate. For a panel of 41 African countries during the period 1960-2007, the paper’s three main findings are that: (i) decreases in the share of agricultural value added lead to a significant increase in the urbanization rate; (ii) conditional on changes in the share of agricultural value added GDP per capita growth does not significantly affect the urbanization rate; (iii) increases in the urbanization rate had a significant negative average effect on GDP per capita growth.     

湖南省区域经济发展空间差异分析

文章以湖南省14个市州为主要区划单元,对2001年和2009年各市州的人均GDP、人均GDP的偏离率等进行对比分析,得出湖南区域经济呈现由东自西递减的空间格局以及产业结构不合理的结论,并提出相应对策。