Strategic crackdown on organized crime by local governments

Economics of Governance - This study examines strategic crackdown policies on organized crime between states or nations. In particular, we consider how organized crimes in different regions can...     

Estimating an economic model of crime using panel data from North Carolina

This paper replicates the Cornwell and Trumbull ( 1994 ) estimation of a crime model using panel data on 90 counties in North Carolina over the period 1981–1987. While the Between and Within estimates are replicated, the fixed effects 2SLS as well as the 2SLS estimates are not. In fact, the fixed effects 2SLS estimates turn out to be insignificant for all important deterrent variables as well as legal opportunity variables. We argue that the usual Hausman test, based on the difference between fixed effects and random effects, may lead to misleading inference when endogenous variables of the conventional simultaneous equation type are among the regressors. We estimate the model using random effects 2SLS and perform a Hausman test based on the difference between fixed effects 2SLS and random effects 2SLS. We cannot reject the consistency of the random effects 2SLS estimator and this estimator yields plausible and significant estimates of the crime model. This result should be tempered by the legitimacy of the chosen instruments. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The costs of organized violence: a review of the evidence

I critically review recent studies that estimate those costs of violence and conflict that can emerge among organized political groupings, such as states, religious and ethnic organizations, guerillas and paramilitaries. The review includes studies that estimate direct and indirect costs due to internal conflicts (civil wars and other lower-level conflicts), terrorism, and external conflicts, including military spending. There are a number of key theoretical concerns on what counts as a cost, and, depending on the methods and evidence used, estimated costs vary widely. However, even minimum estimates are economically significant, especially for low-income countries. This is even more so when the costs of different types of organized conflict and violence are aggregated.     

The political economy of organized crime: providing protection when the state does not

Organized crime emerges out of the power vaccuum that is created by the absence of state enforcement, and which can have many sources: geographic, social, and ethnic distance, prohibition, or simply collapse of state institutions. Mafias and gangs are hierarchically organized and can be thought of as providing primitive state functions, with economic costs that are typically much higher than those associated with modern governance. Though organized crime cannot be completely eradicated, its control is necessary, since it can easily corrupt existing institutions of governance. Some thoughts on what can be done to control organized crime are offered.     

Assessing the economic costs of high school noncompletion

Disparities in educational attainment exist across states. There are costs, both to the individual and society, associated with low levels of educational attainment. This research estimates the costs of high school noncompletion in terms of income loss for each state. The results suggest that: 1) there are substantial economic costs associated with high school noncompletion ($727 billion in lost income nationally); 2) costs vary widely across states; and 3) in general, states with relatively low levels of per capita expenditures on education incur the greatest losses in income from high school noncompletion.     

Health-related economic costs of the Three-Mile Island accident.

On March 1979, a nuclear power station at Three-Mile Island (TMI) near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, had a major breakdown. During the two-week period of the accident, about 150,000 residents were evacuated for reasons associated with safety and health. Many residents during and after the accident, regardless of whether they left or stayed, made mental and physical adjustments due to this accident. This paper is to estimate the economic costs incurred by individuals or communities as a result of a change in physical or mental health status and/or a change in health care services due to the TMI accident. The findings indicate that stress symptoms caused by the accident did affect the health-related behaviors of area residents. Of the costs examined, the economic costs of work days lost and physician visits are the largest cost items. There were some increases in consumption of alcohol, cigarettes, and tranquilizers immediately following the accident.     

Mafia risk perception: Evaluating the effect of organized crime on firm technical efficiency and investment proclivity

The presence of illegal organizations in economic development settings contributes to the Italian economy’s regional heterogeneity by exacerbating other inefficiencies. We aim to investigate how three indicators of awareness of criminal interest in a firm’s activities affect the latter’s efficiency, as well as examining a potential channel through which illegal activities could hinder firm performance, using a unique set of firm-level data. According to our findings, the presence of criminal network pressure in a firm’s environment reduces its technical efficiency and propensity to invest. This phenomenon is particularly strong in Italy’s underdeveloped regions, across all illicit considered and risk classes, with inefficiency doubling when the fear of crime becomes significant. A similar pattern emerges in terms of firm investment proclivity. The research findings are relevant for policymakers because they demonstrate that even the perception of a criminal threat has significant effects on a firm’s performance; consequently, enhancing legal protection could prevent significant economic and social costs.     

Estimating the economic impact of a minor league baseball stadium

Minor league baseball has enjoyed a renaissance in recent years. In many communities baseball supporters are proposing sports stadiums often with some degree of tax support requiring voter approval. Economic growth and development are issues citizens are asked to consider when they vote. This paper presents an easily adaptable model for estimating the direct and indirect economic impact of a minor league baseball team on the community. An application of the model is featured. Direct expenditures from external sources are estimated and RIMS II regional multipliers are applied to determine the indirect impact on area output, earnings and employment.     

Estimating economic impacts of the US-South Korea free trade agreement

ABSTRACT

We analyze the economic impacts of the United States-South Korea Free Trade Agreement by applying the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model to highly disaggregated commodity flow data. The analysis calculates the impacts in terms of welfare effects, national economic indicators (such as GDP), and business performance metrics (such as sales revenue), which can be used by a variety of decision-makers. Our results suggest several trade-offs among these measures. Positive welfare gains between the US and South Korea are about the same in absolute terms, but favor the latter in relative terms, and very heavily so for GDP gains. Moreover, the US is projected to incur a loss of gross output (sales revenue) in several major manufacturing sectors that are heavily concentrated in geographic areas that have been promised a return of jobs by the Trump Administration.     

The social costs of crime: the erosion of trust between citizens and public institutions

Economics of Governance - More than half the population considers lack of security a significant national problem in Peru, and one in four citizens has reported being the victim of a crime....     

Assessing the impact of crime on the economic performance: the case of central america

Crime is obviously a menace to economic growth and progress, but to acutely understand the enormity of its impact on economic performance for effective policy action, requires a credible means of measurement. Given the crime notoriety of the most of Central America and the struggling state of their economies, this article attempts to discern from econometric evaluation and analyses, the calculable economic impact of crime on the region’s economic progress. From analyses of results, we find the model to be credible and useful following its provision of a much more accurate degree to which crime affects economic performance in Central America, which we find critical to guide policy measures.     

The global economic costs of the need to treat polluted water

We estimate the global costs and other implications of the need to treat wastewater before it can be re-used. We extend the World Trade Model by creating water treatment sectors and provide alternative sources of water for satisfying users’ quantity and quality requirements. The database distinguishes qualities and quantities of water endowments, sectoral water requirements, and wastewater discharges. We estimate that global water treatment costs could be reduced by several trillion dollars if water endowments were maintained at higher quality than currently is the case. Under scenarios where water quality degrades further, the treatment costs more than double even without taking account of likely increases in quality requirements. This modeling framework provides a starting point not only for more detailed empirical investigations of water management strategies, but also for examining prospects and associated costs for recovering other resources, such as metals, which can be reused multiple times.     

The market for street crime: An economic analysis of victim-offender interaction

This paper views the economic explanation of crime rates from a new perspective by explicitly deriving an economic model of the behavior of potential victims and considering the interaction of the behavior of potential victims with the behavior of offenders. Crime is produced through offenders supplying time in search of victims and victims demanding to expose themselves to the environment. A model is set up in which the crime rate, the probability of being a victim per unit of exposure time, and the probability of finding a victim per unit of offenders' search time are simultaneously determined. The model leads us to distinguish the “real” crime rate (the probability of being a victim per unit of exposure time) from the “nominal” crime rate (the number of crimes per capita). The nominal crime rate can be inversely related to the real crime rate.     

Estimating the economic return to educational levels using data on twins

This paper relaxes some restrictions of previous twin‐based estimates of the effects of education on earnings. First, it estimates the earnings premiums associated with different educational levels. Second, it estimates a piecewise linear relationship between the natural logarithm of annual earnings and years of schooling. Third, the measurement error corrections are based on a less restrictive, ‘non‐classical’, measurement error model. The estimation strategy implies that ability bias can be investigated separately in different parts of the educational distribution. The linear relationship between the logarithm of annual earnings and years of schooling is rejected. Furthermore, the results in the sample of identical (MZ) twins indicated both that the ability bias could be of different signs and of different magnitudes in different parts of the educational distribution. The twin‐based estimates in the sample of fraternal (DZ) twins did not display any marked differences as compared to the cross‐sectional estimates. Finally, the results indicated that the error‐corrected twin‐based estimates of the average return to years of schooling that rely on a classical measurement error model are upwards biased by approximately 30%. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time costs,aspirations and the effect of economic growth on German fertility

Recent research has shown strong support for the model of reproductive behavior derived from the new home economics, and it is shown in this discussion that the evidence from the Federal Republic of Germany is consistent with the new home economics model. There is little support for Easterlin's relative economic hypothesis, but there is limited endorsement for model which adds the influence of experience based material aspirations to the new home economics model. Easterlin's relative income model is reviewed before directing attention to the new home economics model and an explanation of fertility movements in West Germany. The new home economics model focuses on the family division of labor between home activities and work outside the home. The marked decline in German fertility during the 1970s is mostly attributable to factors such as expanding women's earning capacities which increased the importance of 2 earner families, who have a different family division of labor and possibly preferences biased towards "quality" of children rather than numbers. Also, real wage growth lagged behind the growth in experience based aspirations, and this drop in relative income is more dramatic if it is presumed that material aspirations are based upon the family's income experienced by a young adult during his/her adolescence, rather than just the father's earnings. The mother's contribution to family income will contribute to her family's actual standard of living and the desired standard of living of her children. The labor force participation rates of married, middle-aged German women increased markedly during the 1st half of the 1950s, thus tending to enhance the increase in the standard of living desired by the young adults reaching marrying and childbearing ages in the mid-1960s. The analysis indicates that if there is not a substantial reduction in the proportion of young married women in the labor force, fertility will move countercyclically. In that there must be some floor to fertility, one should be cautious of using these parameter estimates considerably outside the 1950-1977 period. Nonetheless, the estimates indicate that economic growth will not bring a substantial rise in German fertility, and, outside the unlikely situation of sustained economic decline, fertility will remain low.     

Estimating house price appreciation: A comparison of methods

Several parametric and nonparametric methods have been advanced over the years for estimating house price appreciation. This paper compares five of these methods in terms of predictive accuracy, using data from Montgomery County, Pennsylvania. The methods are evaluated on the basis of the mean squared prediction error and the mean absolute prediction error. A statistic developed by Diebold and Mariano is used to determine whether differences in prediction errors are statistically significant. We use the same statistic to determine the effect of sample size on the accuracy of the predictions. In general, parametric methods of estimation produce more accurate estimates of house price appreciation than nonparametric methods. And when the mean absolute prediction error is used as the criterion of accuracy, the repeat sales method produces the most accurate estimate among the parametric methods we tested. Finally, of the five methods we tested, the accuracy of the repeat sales method is least diminished by a reduction in sample size.     

A note on the value of crime control: Evidence from the property market

This note provides evidence on the amount people are willing to pay for crime control. The theory of hedonic price indexes is used to derive estimates from property values. The results are consistent with both theory and intuition.