Unemployment risk, house price risk and the transition into home ownership in the United Kingdom

Using household panel data, this paper examines the impact of income uncertainty, in the form of unemployment risk, on home ownership in the United Kingdom. The existing literature based on cross-sectional studies finds a negative relationship between income uncertainty and home ownership. This paper utilises data on transitions into home ownership and exogenous variation in unemployment risk, avoiding the endogeneity of employment to home ownership status. It also conditions the empirical estimates on a measure of house price volatility utilising a local-level house price index to control house price risk, which might also discourage home ownership. Results show a strong role for unemployment risk in lowering the likelihood of house purchase, but no statistically significant role for house price risk.     

Family attachment and the decision to move by race

Blacks in the United States move less than Whites despite having many characteristics that are commonly associated with high geographical mobility such as high unemployment, low rate of home ownership, low marriage rate and settlement in areas where unemployment is high. We find that this puzzle can be explained by the effects of family ties—both nuclear and extended families—which we proxy using data from the University of Michigan's PSID. The results are robust to different specifications and estimation techniques.     

Do Labour Market Programmes Speed up the Return to Work?*

We evaluate the impact of labour market programmes on unemployment durations in Norway, by means of a distribution‐free mixed proportional competing risks hazard rate model. We find that programme participation, once completed, improves employment prospects, but that there is often an opportunity cost in the form of a lock‐in effect during participation. The average net effect of programme participation on the length of the job search period is found to be around zero. For participants with poor employment prospects, the favourable post‐programme effects outweigh the negative lock‐in effects.     

Nonlinearities and Fractional Integration in the US Unemployment Rate*

This paper proposes a model of the US unemployment rate which accounts for both its asymmetry and its long memory. Our approach introduces fractional integration and nonlinearities simultaneously into the same framework, using a Lagrange multiplier procedure with a standard null‐limit distribution. The empirical results suggest that the US unemployment rate can be specified in terms of a fractionally integrated process, which interacts with some nonlinear functions of labour‐demand variables such as real oil prices and real interest rates. We also find evidence of a long‐memory component. Our results are consistent with a hysteresis model with path dependency rather than a non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) model with an underlying unemployment equilibrium rate, thereby giving support to more activist stabilization policies. However, any suitable model should also include business cycle asymmetries, with implications for both forecasting and policy‐making.     

Equilibrium Unemployment Dynamics in a Panel of OECD Countries

We focus on the equilibrium unemployment rate as a parameter implied by a dynamic aggregate model of wage and price setting. The equilibrium unemployment rate depends on institutional labour market institutions through mark‐up coefficients. Compared with existing studies, the resulting final equation for unemployment has a richer dynamic structure. The empirical investigation is conducted in a panel data framework and uses OECD data up to 2012. We propose to extend the standard estimation method with time dummies to control and capture the effects of common and national shocks by using impulse indicator saturation (WG‐IIS), which has not been previously used on panel data. WG‐IIS robustifies the estimators of the regression coefficients in the dynamic model, and it affects the estimated equilibrium unemployment rates. We find that wage co‐ordination stands out as the most important institutional variable in our data set, but there is also evidence pointing to the tax wedge and the degree of compensation in the unemployment insurance system as drivers of equilibrium unemployment.     

A Bayesian Semiparametric Competing Risk Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity

This paper generalizes existing econometric models for censored competing risks by introducing a new flexible specification based on a piecewise linear baseline hazard, time‐varying regressors, and unobserved individual heterogeneity distributed as an infinite mixture of generalized inverse Gaussian (GIG) densities, nesting the gamma kernel as a special case. A common correlated latent time effect induces dependence among risks. Our model is based on underlying latent exit decisions in continuous time while only a time interval containing the exit time is observed, as is common in economic data. We do not make the simplifying assumption of discretizing exit decisions—our competing risk model setup allows for latent exit times of different risk types to be realized within the same time period. In this setting, we derive a tractable likelihood based on scaled GIG Laplace transforms and their higher‐order derivatives. We apply our approach to analyzing the determinants of unemployment duration with exits to jobs in the same industry or a different industry among unemployment insurance recipients on nationally representative individual‐level survey data from the US Department of Labor. Our approach allows us to conduct a counterfactual policy experiment by changing the replacement rate: we find that the impact of its change on the probability of exit from unemployment is inelastic. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Turning Unemployment into Self‐Employment: Effectiveness of Two Start‐Up Programmes*

Turning unemployment into self‐employment has become a major focus of German active labour market policy (ALMP) in recent years. If effective, this would not only reduce Germany's persistently high unemployment rate, but also increase its notoriously low self‐employment rate. Empirical evidence on the effectiveness of such programmes is scarce. We evaluate the effectiveness of two start‐up programmes for the unemployed, where we include the probability of being employed, the probability of being unemployed and personal income as outcome variables. Our results show that at the end of the observation period, both programmes are effective. The considerable positive effects present a stark contrast to findings from evaluations of other German ALMP programmes in recent years. Hence, ALMP programmes aimed at moving the unemployed into self‐employment may prove to be among the most effective, both in Germany and elsewhere.     

Mismatch Shocks and Unemployment During the Great Recession

We investigate the macroeconomic consequences of fluctuations in the effectiveness of the labor market matching process with a focus on the Great Recession. We conduct our analysis in the context of an estimated medium‐scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices and equilibrium search unemployment that features a shock to the matching efficiency (or mismatch shock). We find that this shock is not important for unemployment fluctuations in normal times. However, it plays a somewhat larger role during the Great Recession when it contributes to raise the actual unemployment rate by around 1.3 percentage points and the natural rate by around 2 percentage points. The mismatch shock is the dominant driver of the natural rate of unemployment and explains part of the recent shift of the Beveridge curve. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Race,Self‐Employment,and Labor Absorption

Past studies have argued that in the large cities of developing societies, unemployment is often alleviated when displaced workers are absorbed into the small‐scale entrepreneurial activities of the informal economy. The present study applies this argument to an analysis of women's self‐employment in the U.S. South during the Great Depression. Census data show that in large southern cities in 1940, the unemployment of black women was meaningfully reduced by the self‐employment of these women in domestic service. These data further suggest that dynamics of race, unemployment, and the self‐employment of women in domestic service can be represented by an inverted‐U‐shaped labor absorption curve. These results make several contributions to research on race, labor‐market disadvantage, and self‐employment in the informal sector.     

Temporary Help Agencies and Occupational Mobility*

This paper analyses the effects of Temporary Help Agencies (THA) on occupational mobility by performing an empirical comparison of the job‐to‐job upgrading chances of agency and regular (non‐agency) workers in Spain. We estimate a switching regression model to allow for self‐selection into agency work because of, for instance, more motivated workers being more likely to search for jobs through a THA. We find evidence in favour of the existence of self‐selection in all qualification groups considered. Concerning mobility, we find that agency workers in intermediate qualification levels are less likely to experience demotions than regular workers. THA increase the probability of high‐skilled workers achieving a permanent contract in Spain.     

The search for success: do the unemployed find stable employment?

We use discrete time proportional hazards regressions to model the impact of previous unemployment incidence and duration on job tenure. We find that jobs that follow an unemployment spell have shorter mean duration than other jobs. Only one half of jobs that follow unemployment last for 12 months. Multivariate results suggest that an unemployment spell has a severe penalty on subsequent job tenure, and that it is unemployment incidence rather than duration which has the major impact.     

Retirement Choices in Italy: What an Option Value Model Tells Us*

Using Italian data, we estimate an option value model to quantify the effect of financial incentives on retirement choices. As far as we know, this is the first empirical study to estimate the conditional multiple‐years model put forward by Stock and Wise (1990) . This implies that we account for dynamic self‐selection bias. We also present an extended version of this model in which the marginal value of leisure is random. For the female sample, the model is able to predict almost perfectly the age‐specific hazard rates. For the male sample, we obtain a good fit. Dynamic self‐selection results in a downward bias in the estimate of the marginal utility of leisure. We perform a simulation study to gauge the effects of a dramatic pension reform. Underestimation of the value of leisure translates into sizeable over‐prediction of the impact of reform. Due to lack of data, results for males should be interpreted with caution since we are not able to fully correct for dynamic self‐selection bias.     

A Bounded Model of Time Variation in Trend Inflation,Nairu and the Phillips Curve

In this paper, we develop a bivariate unobserved components model for inflation and unemployment. The unobserved components are trend inflation and the non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). Our model also incorporates a time‐varying Phillips curve and time‐varying inflation persistence. What sets this paper apart from the existing literature is that we do not use unbounded random walks for the unobserved components, but rather bounded random walks. For instance, NAIRU is assumed to evolve within bounds. Our empirical work shows the importance of bounding. We find that our bounded bivariate model forecasts better than many alternatives, including a version of our model with unbounded unobserved components. Our model also yields sensible estimates of trend inflation, NAIRU, inflation persistence and the slope of the Phillips curve. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Factors affecting delinquency of household credit in the U.S.: Does consumer sentiment play a role?

In this study, we provide both theoretical and empirical evidence on the determinants of household loan delinquency for home ownership, credit card and auto loans for the U.S. states in a panel framework over a period from 2003 through 2017. In particular, we examine the impact of consumer sentiments on loan delinquency rates. We show that improved current consumer sentiment significantly induce lower mortgage, credit card and automobile loan defaults in the American states subdivided into four different regions. We also find that the higher overall and expected consumer sentiment raise loan delinquencies. Implicit in this finding is the apparently excessive and inappropriate expansion of loans in the U.S. economy in the face of consumers’ optimism, which in turn, provides an intuitive understanding of the circumstances that could precede a depression or outbreak of anomalies in the financial sector. Our general findings further exhibit significant positive effect of unemployment rate and mostly adverse effect of per capita income on mortgage and automobile loan delinquency rates. The results provide some compelling evidence with regard to the effect of consumer confidence on household credit delinquency rates across various states in the U.S. and are robust to alternative measures of income and mortgage rates.     

Turning Agents into Psychological Principals: Aligning Interests of Non‐Owners through Psychological Ownership

Principals who delegate tasks to agents face the perennial challenge of overcoming agency problems. We investigate whether feelings of ownership among senior managers in the absence of formal ownership can align agents' interests with those of principals, thus turning agents into psychological principals. Using a moderated mediation model, we find that psychological ownership is positively related to company performance through the mediating effect of individual‐level entrepreneurial behaviour. We also find that the effect of psychological ownership on individual‐level entrepreneurial behaviour and, ultimately, company performance is weaker for high levels of monitoring compared to low levels. These findings offer important contributions to agency, psychological ownership, and entrepreneurship literatures.     

UNEMPLOYMENT,HUMAN CAPITAL DEPRECIATION,AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE POLICY

This paper presents a structural estimation of a life cycle model with unemployment risk. The model allows for human capital depreciation during unemployment. It is estimated using German and US household‐level data. The data suggest that the adverse impact of unemployment on individual productivity is important in both countries, but quantitatively more relevant in Germany. Moreover, simulations show that the combination of skill depreciation with the generous unemployment insurance system that was in place in Germany until recently is a key factor in explaining the differences in labour market performance between these countries. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Return Migration,Self‐selection and Entrepreneurship

Are return migrants more entrepreneurial? Existing literature has not addressed how estimating the impact of return migration on entrepreneurship is affected by double unobservable migrant self‐selection, both at the initial outward migration and at the final inward return migration stages. This paper exploits exogenous variation provided by the civil war and the incidence of agricultural plagues in Mozambique, as well as social unrest and other shocks in migrant destination countries. The results lend support to overall negative unobservable return migrant self‐selection, which results in an under‐estimation of the effects of return migration on entrepreneurial outcomes when using a ‘naïve’ estimator that does not control for self‐selection at both the initial migration and at the final return migration stages.     

Job separation in a non‐stationary search model: a structural estimation to evaluate alternative unemployment insurance systems

This paper considers a job search model in which the environment is not constant throughout the unemployment spell and where jobs do not last for ever. In this situation, reservation wages can be lower than they would be in a model without consideration of such separations, but they can initially be higher precisely because of the non‐constant environment. The model is estimated structurally by using Spanish data for the period 1985–1996. The main finding is that, after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, the unemployment hazard rate is almost flat during the first six months. However, after this duration, the highly decreasing job offer arrival rate comes to be the only significant factor, given that acceptance probabilities become equal to one. The estimated parameters are used to evaluate different unemployment insurance designs. We conclude that a non‐monotonic pattern in unemployment benefits, joint with a tax paid by workers and based on unemployment duration, makes this duration 13.2% lower than it currently is in Spain. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Structural evolution of the postwar U.S. economy

We consider a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility and mixture innovations to study the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique for the postwar U.S. economy. The model allows blocks of parameters to change at endogenously estimated points of time. Contrary to the Lucas critique, there are large changes at certain points of time in the parameters associated with monetary policy that do not correspond to changes in “reduced-form” parameters for inflation or the unemployment rate. However, the structure of the U.S. economy has evolved considerably over the postwar period, with an apparent reduction in the late 1980s in the impact of monetary policy shocks on inflation, though not on the unemployment rate. Related, we find changes in the Phillips curve tradeoff between inflation and cyclical unemployment (measured as the deviation from the time-varying steady-state unemployment rate implied by the model) in the 1970s and especially since the mid-1990s.