城镇居民消费过度敏感性的统计分析

本文在文献综述的基础上,指出了现有研究中的不足,即缺少不同收入阶层的消费过度敏感性的分析以及由于样本容量的不足导致模型拟合及预测能力不强。本文主要利用panel data模型分析了我国城镇不同收入阶层居民消费的过度敏感性,验证出各阶层都存在着过度敏感性,且过度敏感性的大小在各阶层中呈现倒"草帽"型分布。     

流动性约束、不确定性与消费过度敏感

消费过度敏感问题一直是近年来西方消费函数研究中的热点。本文介绍了检验消费过度敏感的基本模型和有关消费过度敏感成因的主要观点,并结合我国实际,分析了流动性约束,不确定与居民消费的关系。     

Estimating Excess Sensitivity and Habit Persistence in Consumption Using Greenbook Forecasts

In this paper, we revisit the issue of excess sensitivity of consumption to income and address the weak instrument problem that is well documented in this literature. Using quarterly data for the US economy, we first highlight the weak instrument problem by showing that the use of conventional instruments tends to overestimate the share of rule-of-thumb consumers. To address this weak instrument problem, we propose a new instrument for endogenous disposable income growth in the consumption function, namely, the Greenbook forecast of real disposable income growth. We show that this instrument encompasses the information contained in the conventional set of instruments, and is a superior predictor of income growth. We find that using our proposed instrument ameliorates the weak instrument problem and provides a much smaller estimate for the rule-of-thumb consumers. We also extend our empirical framework to allow for habit persistence and provide an estimate for this important parameter of the consumption function. Finally, we use a time-varying specification of consumption function that allows for endogenous regressors, and document a decline in the share of rule-of-thumb consumers and a rise in the habit-persistence parameter in the US over our sample period.     

经济转型期中国城镇居民消费敏感度的变参数分析

本文以坎贝尔(Campbell)和曼坤(Mankiw)于1990年提出的理论模型为基础，利用1978～2002年的有关统计数据和状态空间模型对城镇居民的消费敏感度进行了变参数分析。我们的结论是：①1990年之前，消费对同期收入的超敏感系数下降很快，但在此后超敏感系数却稳中有升；②利率变动的替代效应大于收入效应，但1990年以来这种净效应逐年减弱；③预防性储蓄动机和流动性约束增强是近年来城镇居民消费敏感度提高、利率弹性变小的主要原因。     

收入差异对总体消费的影响

本文以蒙特卡罗模拟为主要手段,辅以计量方法,研究不同程度的收入差异对总体消费的影响。最终得到以下结论：随着基尼系数从0增加到1,总体消费总体上呈递减的趋势,但递减的过程具有明显的非线性特征;当基尼系数从0增加到0.4之前,总体消费随之下降的幅度较小,且波动性很小;当基尼系数增至0.4后,随着基尼系数的增加,总体消费突然大幅下降,而且波动性也大幅增加。随着基尼系数接近1附近时,这种情况逐步减弱。     

收入分配对总消费影响的结构分析——兼对中国城镇家庭的实证检验

研究收入分配对总消费的影响涉及微观到宏观的过渡问题.在这一点上,现有分析方法都存在缺陷.为此,本文以收入阶层为切入点,将总平均消费倾向作为衡量总消费的指标,构建收入分配对总消费影响的数学模型.理论表明,当计及了阶层收入分配的平均消费倾向随着收入提高而递减时,高收入阶层向低收入阶层的收入转移才能带来总消费的提高.对1995～2006年中国城镇家庭的实证分析发现,阶层问的收入分配恶化阻碍了总消费的提高.     

Separability and Aggregate Shocks in the Life-cycle Model of Consumption: Evidence from Spain

The purpose of this paper is to test the life-cycle permanent income hypothesis using an unbalanced panel from the Spanish family expenditure survey. Our model accounts for aggregate shocks and non-separability in the Euler equation among consumption goods, contrary to most of the literature in this area. Our results do not indicate excess sensitivity of consumption growth to income.     

Reisman's Net Consumption, Net Investment Theory of Aggregate Profit

Abstract . This paper presents the essentials of George Reisman's net consumption, net investment theory of aggregate profit as discussed in Capitalism: A Treatise on Economics. The paper then relates Reisman's ideas to those of Austrian School economists Ludwig von Mises and Murray Rothbard. Delimiting time preference to determining the rate of net consumption, the primary determinant of aggregate profit, Reisman argues that under an invariable money, a one‐time increase in the rate of saving is sufficient to stimulate an increase in the supply of capital goods indefinitely. Reisman thereby rejects the claim that capital accumulation causes a falling rate of profit.     

以城市化驱动消费的现实悖论——兼论我国经济拉动方式的转型

我国存在着城市化驱动消费机理的现实悖论,原因在于城市化发展非均衡、二元社会保障结构、消费挤占和收入分配结构失衡,要实现经济拉动方式由投资出口主导向消费主导的重要转变,应从城市化道路、城乡经济、收入分配结构、社会保障制度这四个方面入手.     

对消费合理性的探究

消费是人类生存与发展的重要条件之一。异化的消费在今天却有愈演愈烈的趋势。消费异化表现为消费主体在消费活动中失去主体地位的行为活动及心理体验。树立绿色的消费观念、坚持适度的消费原则、保持理性消费是应对消费异化的基本对策。绿色消费是一种避免或减少对环境的破坏,更好的保护生态环境的新型消费模式。适度消费是指与国情、个人收入水平及社会风尚相适应的消费行为。理性消费就是指消费者在消费能力允许的条件下,按照追求效用最大化原则进行的消费。     

"十一五"促进投资总量增长的战略思考

“十一五”期间,是我国未来社会经济发展的关键时期。要实现国民经济发展的第三步战略目标,要求投资总量保持持续、快速、协调、健康发展。在新的发展时期,我们应当运用新思路、新途径、新方法设计未来投资增长的大局,努力转变增长方式,提高增长质量和效益,推动我国经济跃上新台阶。(一)发展混合所有制经济,推行多元投资主体的有效融合,形成推动社会投资增长的多种合力要完成“十一五”投资总量的宏伟目标,仅仅停留在过去“抓大放小”,围绕国有大中型企业投资与国家重点建设做文章,发挥投资主体多元化的作用已远远不够,还要大力发展国有资本…     

习惯偏好下的中国居民消费的过度敏感性——基于1995～2005年省际动态面板数据的分析

本文运用1995～2005年省际动态面板数据研究了习惯偏好下的中国居民消费的过度敏感性。计量分析表明:在总消费增长率变动上城镇与农村表现出一定程度的耐久性,在非耐用消费支出上农村居民表现出一定的习惯,但城镇居民的消费习惯几乎不存在。无论是城镇还是农村居民的消费变动都呈现出对预期收入变动的过度敏感。城镇居民总消费变动的敏感性明显高于农村,而与此恰好相反,城镇居民的非耐用消费支出变动的收入敏感系数低于农村。过度敏感性表现出比较明显的非对称模式,城镇样本关于消费变动的估计支持了"损失厌恶"理论,而农村样本则支持了流动性约束或短视假说。     

Disaggregate Wealth and Aggregate Consumption: an Investigation of Empirical Relationships for the G7*

To date, studies of wealth effects on consumption have mainly used aggregate wealth definitions on a single‐country basis. This study seeks to break new ground by analysing disaggregated financial wealth in consumption functions for G7 countries. Contrary to earlier empirical work, we find that illiquid financial wealth (i.e. securities, pensions and mortgage debt) tends to be a more important long‐run determinant of consumption than liquid financial wealth. These results imply potential instability in consumption functions employing aggregate wealth. Our results are robust using SURE; when testing with a nested specification; and when using a linear model.     

混凝土配合比设计中骨料合理级配初探

简要介绍混凝土配合比设计过程中粗骨料级配和砂率的合理选取方法,阐述了合理级配、砂率选取的重要性。     

存在荷载边坡的稳定性影响因素的敏感性分析

有鉴于有建筑物的边坡越来越多,而地震、边坡坡高、建筑物大小(即荷载大小)以及建筑物位置(即荷载位置)都对边坡稳定性有很大的影响,分清影响因素的主次,可以为治理此类边坡提供依据。文章通过GEO-studio采用有限元法进行边坡数值模拟,通过正交实验法分析了各个因素对边坡稳定性影响的敏感性,发现影响边坡稳定性因素的主次顺序为:坡高H影响最大,其次是荷载距离L,荷载P与地震加速度α相差无几。通过模拟分析发现,荷载距离大于12m时,荷载位置对边坡稳定性影响就微乎其微了。     

重庆市学生教育消费对经济增长的带动作用

教育消费成为现代人生存和发展的基础性消费。本文从重庆市学生教育支出入手，通过大样本抽样，对学生教育消费总量和结构进行了实证分析。在阐明重庆市学生教育消费基本特征的同时，论证了教育消费已成为拉动经济增长的重要力量之一，是宏观经济决策中不可忽视的重要因素。     

Sensitivity and Stability Analysis in DEA: Some Recent Developments

This papersurveys recently developed analytical methods for studying thesensitivity of DEA results to variations in the data. The focusis on the stability of classification of DMUs (Decision MakingUnits) into efficient and inefficient performers. Early workon this topic concentrated on developing solution methods andalgorithms for conducting such analyses after it was noted thatstandard approaches for conducting sensitivity analyses in linearprogramming could not be used in DEA. However, some of the recentwork we cover has bypassed the need for such algorithms. Evolvingfrom early work that was confined to studying data variationsin only one input or output for only one DMU at a time, the newermethods described in this paper make it possible to determineranges within which all data may be varied for any DMU beforea reclassification from efficient to inefficient status (or vice versa) occurs. Other coverage involves recent extensionswhich include methods for determining ranges of data variationthat can be allowed when all data are varied simultaneously for all DMUs. An initial section delimits the topics to be covered.A final section suggests topics for further research.     

Sensitivity and Stability of the Classifications of Returns to Scale in Data Envelopment Analysis

Sensitivity of the returns to scale (RTS) classifications in data envelopment analysis is studied by means of linear programming problems. The stability region for an observation preserving its current RTS classification (constant, increasing or decreasing returns to scale) can be easily investigated by the optimal values to a set of particular DEA-type formulations. Necessary and sufficient conditions are determined for preserving the RTS classifications when input or output data perturbations are non-proportional. It is shown that the sensitivity analysis method under proportional data perturbations can also be used to estimate the RTS classifications and discover the identical RTS regions yielded by the input-based and the output-based DEA methods. Thus, our approach provides information on both the RTS classifications and the stability of the classifications. This sensitivity analysis method can easily be applied via existing DEA codes.     

人工砂石料加工系统运行成本管理的探讨

面对竞争日趋白热化的水电建筑市场,中标价格往往偏低,因此如何提高人工砂石料系统的运行成本管理水平显得尤为重要,此问题是每一个中标施工单位都应重视和思考的问题。文章从重视成本管理、正确认识成本管理、采取有效的成本控制方法等方面对人工砂石料加工系统运行成本管理进行了探讨。     

人工砂石料加工系统运行成本管理的探讨

面对竞争日趋白热化的水电建筑市场,中标价格往往偏低,因此如何提高人工砂石料系统的运行成本管理水平显得尤为重要,此问题是每一个中标施工单位都应重视和思考的问题.文章从重视成本管理、正确认识成本管理、采取有效的成本控制方法等方面对人工砂石料加工系统运行成本管理进行了探讨.