On the Real Effect of Financial Pressure: Evidence From Firm‐Level Employment During the Euro‐Area Crisis

Using a large panel of mainly unquoted euro‐area firms over the period 2003–2011, this paper examines the impact of financial pressure on firms’ employment. The analysis finds evidence that financial pressure negatively affects firms’ employment decisions. This effect is stronger during the euro area‐crisis (2010–2011), especially for firms in the periphery compared to their counterparts in non‐periphery European economies. When we introduce firm‐level heterogeneity, we show that financial pressure appears to be both statistically and quantitatively more important for bank‐dependent, small and privately held firms operating in periphery economies during the crisis.     

To What Extent Does the Interest Burden Affect Firm Survival? Evidence from a Panel of UK Firms during the Recent Financial Crisis

Using a panel of mainly unquoted UK firms over the period 2000–09, we document a significant effect of changes in the interest burden from debt‐servicing on firm survival. The effect is found to be stronger during the recent financial crisis compared with more tranquil periods. Furthermore, the survival chances of bank‐dependent, younger, and non‐exporting firms are most affected by changes in the interest burden, especially during the crisis. Our results are robust to using different estimation methods and different interest burden measures They suggest that one way for policymakers to mitigate the effects of financial crises by limiting firm failures would be to prevent financing costs from rising, especially for those firms more likely to face liquidity constraints.     

Financial health and airline safety

Agency‐cost models suggest that firms may pursue riskier strategies in times of financial distress. For example, stockholders of financially weak firms in industries where quality cannot be observed ex‐ante have an incentive to compromise safety and quality to maximize current period profit. However, there exists only a modest amount of empirical evidence that relates financial health to the risk‐taking behavior of firms. We explore this relationship for the airline industry. Using bond ratings to proxy for financial health and airline mishaps to measure safety, we find a significant correlation: airlines with higher quality bond ratings are less likely to experience mishaps than airlines with lower quality ratings. On average, a whole letter grade better bond rating is associated with a 10% lower probability of a mishap. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Financial analyst coverage for U.S. firms facing foreign competition: Evidence from trade liberalization

This study examines financial analyst coverage for U.S. firms following an increase in foreign product market competition. To capture exogenous shocks to domestic firms' competitive environments, we exploit a quasi‐natural experiment from large import tariff reductions over the 1984 to 2005 period in the manufacturing sector. Using data for the years before and after large tariff reductions, our difference‐in‐differences analysis shows evidence of a significant decrease in analyst coverage for incumbent U.S. firms when they face greater entry threat from foreign competitors. We also find that analysts with less firm‐specific experience and less accurate prior‐period forecasts are more likely to stop following the domestic firm when foreign competition intensifies. Overall, the findings suggest that foreign product market competition from global trade liberalization is an important determinant of financial analysts' coverage decisions.     

Unravelling financial market linkages during crises

An empirical model of multiple asset classes across countries is formulated in a latent factor framework. A special feature of the model is that financial market linkages during periods of financial crises, including spillover and contagion effects, are formally specified. The model also captures a range of common factors including global shocks, country and market shocks, and idiosyncratic shocks. The framework is applied to modelling linkages between currency and equity markets during the East Asian financial crisis of 1997–98. The results provide strong evidence that cross‐market links are important. Spillovers have a relatively larger effect on volatility than contagion, but both are statistically significant. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exogenous uncertainty and the identification of structural vector autoregressions with external instruments

We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the identification (point‐identification) of structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) with external instruments considering the case in which r instruments are used to identify g structural shocks of interest, r ≥ g ≥ 1. Novel frequentist estimation methods are discussed by considering both a “partial shocks” identification strategy, where only g structural shocks are of interest and are instrumented, and a “full shocks” identification strategy, where despite g structural shocks being instrumented, all n=g+(n?g) structural shocks of the system can be identified under certain conditions. The suggested approach is applied to investigate empirically whether financial and macroeconomic uncertainty can be approximated as exogenous drivers of US real economic activity, or rather as endogenous responses to first moment shocks, or both. We analyze whether the dynamic causal effects of nonuncertainty shocks on macroeconomic and financial uncertainty are significant in the period after the global financial crisis.     

Identifying credit demand,financial intermediation,and supply of funds shocks: A structural VAR approach

In this paper, we identify three exogenous shocks to credit market: demand for credit, supply of funds into the financial system, and the willingness to lend of financial institutions (financial intermediation), and also, determine the contribution of these shocks to fluctuations in the credit market and overall economic activity. We estimate a structural vector autoregression model where the three credit shocks are identified with a set of sign restrictions motivated by a simple partial equilibrium model of financial intermediation. We find that the credit demand shock explains significantly the variations in the long-term loan rate proxied by the Moody’s Baa corporate bond yield, while the supply of funds shock contributes to most of the fluctuations in the short-term commercial paper rate. The financial intermediation shock drives most of the fluctuations in the quantity of loans as well as the spread between the Baa and commercial paper rates. Of the credit shocks, we find that the financial intermediation shock has the largest impact on real economic activity. In fact, our analysis implies that the sharp decline in output during the 2007–2009 financial crisis is largely attributable to the financial intermediation shock, along with shocks originating outside of the financial system.     

Volatility of Price Indices for Heterogeneous Goods with Applications to the Fine Art Market

Price indices for heterogeneous goods such as real estate or fine art constitute crucial information for institutional or private investors considering alternative investment decisions in times of financial markets turmoil. Classical mean‐variance analysis of alternative investments has been hampered by the lack of a systematic treatment of volatility in these markets. In this paper we propose a hedonic regression framework which explicitly defines an underlying stochastic process for the price index, allowing to treat the volatility parameter as the object of interest. The model can be estimated using maximum likelihood in combination with the Kalman filter. We derive theoretical properties of the volatility estimator and show that it outperforms the standard estimator. We show that extensions to allow for time‐varying volatility are straightforward using a local‐likelihood approach. In an application to a large data set of international blue chip artists, we show that volatility of the art market, although generally lower than that of financial markets, has risen after the financial crisis of 2008–09, but sharply decreased during the recent debt crisis. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Valuation effects of earnings management on hotel firm value

This study investigates the valuation effects of earnings quality on a hotel’s firm value between 1991 and 2017. A unique perspective from the financial crisis period is utilized to explore the changes further when hotel firms face financial distress. We adopt the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression method in this study. Generalized Least Squares (GLS) regression and Petersen’s Clustered Standard Error Model to confirm the validity of results. Seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) analysis is adopted to compare the impact of the financial crisis on subsamples of low and high Altman Z-scores and subsamples of non-Big-4 and Big-4 firms. Substantial evidence supports our assertion that increased discretionary accruals and earnings management bring down earnings quality and, in turn, decrease a hotel’s firm value. Results reinforce that the 2008 financial crisis had an impact on the relationship between earnings management and hotel firm value. The negative effect that discretionary accruals and earnings management have on hotel firm value is mitigated for hotel firms with low credit strength or not audited by one of the Big-4 firms. Stockholders of hotel firms should be aware of the impact and enforce additional measures to control earnings management activities during a financial crisis.     

Global Credit Risk: World,Country and Industry Factors

We investigate the dynamic properties of systematic default risk conditions for firms in different countries, industries and rating groups. We use a high‐dimensional nonlinear non‐Gaussian state‐space model to estimate common components in corporate defaults in a 41 country samples between 1980:Q1 and s2014:Q4, covering both the global financial crisis and euro area sovereign debt crisis. We find that macro and default‐specific world factors are a primary source of default clustering across countries. Defaults cluster more than what shared exposures to macro factors imply, indicating that other factors also play a significant role. For all firms, deviations of systematic default risk from macro fundamentals are correlated with net tightening bank lending standards, suggesting that bank credit supply and systematic default risk are inversely related. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of EMU on bond yield convergence: Evidence from a time-varying dynamic factor model

This paper examines the dynamics of long term sovereign bond yields for 21 OECD countries. Following Del Negro and Otrok (2008), we estimate a dynamic factor model, with time varying parameters and stochastic volatility, that decomposes the observed variation in bond yields for each country into a common factor, a regional factor (EMU/non-EMU), and an idiosyncratic country specific factor. We find that prior to the financial crisis of 2008, the common factor played a dominant role for most countries in our sample. In the post financial crisis period there is substantial heterogeneity in the relative importance of the EMU and the idiosyncratic factors across different countries. For instance, our results suggest that there was a decoupling between the EMU and bond markets of the periphery economies of Greece, Ireland and Portugal in the post-2008 period. We find that after the onset of sovereign debt crises in these economies, the idiosyncratic factor assumed an important role in driving the bond yield variation. Thereafter, the EMU’s share in bond yield changes in Ireland and Portugal increased considerably since 2012, whereas for Greece the idiosyncratic factor continued to play a significant role in driving bond yields. In contrast, the EMU factor consistently played a dominant role in explaining bond yield changes in Italy and Spain, the other two economies that also experienced severe debt crisis during this period. We argue such differences in the importance of the EMU factor between core and periphery economies can be attributed to the systemic importance of core members for the EMU. This is indicated by our finding that bond yields and credit default swap (CDS) are less sensitive to changes in debt-GDP ratios in countries where the EMU factor played a larger role in the post-2008 period.     

Financial crisis and relative productivity dynamics in Korea: evidence from firm-level data (1992–2003)

We have estimated the relative TFP growth at firm level and analyzed the firm dynamics in view of entry and exit of firms in Korea during 1992–2003, which includes the turbulent financial crisis of 1997–1998. Following Pyo and Ha, Hitotsubashi J Econ 48(1): 67–81, (2007), we have adopted a gross output model rather than a value added model of relative TFP analysis. We have found that the cyclical variation of productivity growth plays a dominant role in the decomposition effects before and after the 1997 financial crisis in Korea. Productivity growth is modest before the crisis and strong after the crisis owing to the recovering market efficiency. There is the likelihood that the productivity growth of stayers during the post-crisis period was significantly higher than new entrants. The net entry effect is found to be more sensitive in small business and export-based firms than in large business and domestic market-based firms. Our findings suggest that Korean firms have recovered a modest level of technical change after its severe financial crisis owing to the improvement of management transparency and the build-up of market efficiency during the IMF-mandated restructuring process. But since the entry effect is estimated to be still negative in Manufacturing and the exit effect is negative in Service sector after the crisis, the Korean economy has not fully recovered its metabolism in the post-crisis period and still lacks a creative destructive process to resume another round of sustainable growth path.     

Optimal dividend policy with random interest rates

Several recent papers have studied the impact of macroeconomic shocks on the financial policies of firms. However, they only consider the case where these macroeconomic shocks affect the profitability of firms but not the financial markets conditions. We study the polar case where the profitability of firms is stationary, but interest rates and issuance costs are governed by an exogenous Markov chain. We characterize the optimal dividend policy and show that these two macroeconomic factors have opposing effects: all things being equal, firms distribute more dividends when interest rates are high and less when issuing costs are high.     

The effects of oil price shocks on inflation in the G7 countries

This study examines the effects of three types of oil price shocks on inflation in the G7 countries with a new method of isolating oil price shocks. Based on monthly data from January 1997 to January 2019, we find that each oil price shock has the largest effect on U.S. inflation among the G7 countries and each country’s response to oil price shocks is different. Moreover, a rolling-window analysis shows that supply shocks, demand shocks and risk shocks have dynamic effects on inflation. The effect of supply shocks on inflation is strong before the financial crisis, but weakens during the crisis. However, the effect of demand shocks increases sharply in this time. The effect of risk shocks mainly occurs during the financial crisis and the European debt crisis. In addition, this study uses two ways to verify the robustness of the results. Our empirical results have important implications for policymakers and manufacturers, since the results provide a good explanation for the response of inflation in the G7 countries to the oil price shocks from different sources.     

Bankruptcy Prediction: Evidence from Korean Listed Companies during the IMF Crisis

This paper empirically studies the predictive model of business failure using the sample of listed companies that went bankrupt during the period from 1997 to 1998 when deep recession driven by the IMF crisis started in Korea. Logit maximum likelihood estimator is employed as the statistical technique. The model demonstrated decent prediction accuracy and robustness. The type I accuracy is 80.4 per cent and the Type II accuracy is 73.9 per cent. The accuracy remains almost at the same level when the model is applied to an independent holdout sample. In addition to building a bankruptcy prediction model this paper finds that most of firms that went bankrupt during the Korean economic crisis from 1997 to 1998 had shown signs of financial distress long before the crisis. Bankruptcy probabilities of the sample are consistently high during the period from 1991 to 1996. The evidence of this paper can be seen as complementary to the perspective that traces Asian economic crisis to the vulnerabilities of corporate governance of Asian countries.     

The macroeconomic impact of economic uncertainty and financial shocks under low and high financial stress

External financial frictions might increase the severity of economic uncertainty shocks. We analyze the impact of aggregate uncertainty and financial condition shocks using a threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model with stochastic volatility during distinct US financial stress regimes. We further examine the international spillover of the US financial shock. Our results show that the peak contraction in euro area industrial production due to uncertainty shocks during a financial crisis is nearly-four times larger than the peak contraction during normal times. The US financial shocks have an influential asymmetric spillover effect on the euro area. Furthermore, the estimates reveal that the European Central Bank (ECB) is more cautious in implementing a monetary policy against uncertainty shocks while adopting hawkish monetary policies against financial shocks. In contrast, the Fed adopts a more hawkish monetary policy during heightened uncertainty, whereas it acts more steadily when financial stress rises in the economy.     

Long‐term Effects of Fiscal Stimulus and Austerity in Europe

We analyze whether there are ne gative (positive) long‐term effects of austerity measures (stimulus measures) on potential output growth. Based on the approach of Blanchard and Leigh ( 2013 ) and Fatás and Summers ( 2018 ) and using a novel data set of narratively identified fiscal policy shocks, we estimate the impact of these shocks on potential output. We robustly find a considerable underestimation of multiplier effects and their persistence for most European countries in the early years after the financial crisis and subsequent Euro Area crisis. We conclude that fiscal consolidation was badly timed and thus not only deepened the crisis but may have caused evitable hysteresis effects.     

Financial constraints and corporate investments during the current financial and economic crisis: The credit crunch and investment decisions of Slovenian firms

We investigate the effect of financial constraints on the investment decisions of Slovenian firms during the current financial and economic crisis. By estimating the error-correction model and the Euler-equation specification, we found that corporate investments were significantly affected by financial constraints during the crisis. The effect of financial constraints intensified in 2009 and alleviated slightly in 2010, although still being significantly more intense than before the crisis hit the economy. By estimating a switching regression model with unknown sample separation that enabled us to address the problem of judgemental sample separation, we were also able to estimate the error-correction model separately for financially constrained and financially unconstrained firms. The results indicate that financial constraints have a significant effect on both financially constrained and financially unconstrained firms, although corporate investments were more severely affected in financially constrained firms.     

The Impact of the Asian Financial Crisis on Conservatism and Timeliness of Earnings: Evidence from Hong Kong,Malaysia, Singapore,and Thailand

This paper examines conservatism and timeliness of earnings in the period surrounding the 1997 Asian financial crisis in Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. Prior research suggests that managers tended to be more aggressive in reporting good news and delayed recognition of bad news during the financial crisis (less conservative and less timely in financial reporting). After the crisis, these four countries implemented corporate governance measures to stabilize their financial systems and improve regulation and supervision (that should improve conservatism and timeliness). We examine and find that conservatism and timeliness of earnings during the crisis period are low, but improved in the post‐crisis period. More importantly, conservatism and timeliness in the post‐crisis period is even greater than in the pre‐crisis period. We measure conservatism using Basu's model and the accumulation of non‐operating accruals suggested by Givoly and Hayn. The findings from both measures are consistent with an increase in conservatism after the crisis period. Overall, the results indicate that corporate governance reforms in these four countries had a positive impact on conservatism and timeliness of earnings.     

Sovereign wealth funds,productivity and people: The impact of Norwegian Government Pension Fund‐Global investments in the United Kingdom

Sovereign wealth funds have an increasing presence in the global financial ecosystem, principally through their investments in equities, which, in turn, may influence HRM. This study examines the influence of the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, the Norwegian Government Pension Fund‐Global (NGPF‐G), on employment in its U.K. investee firms. We find that firms with NGPF‐G investment are significantly less likely to reduce their demand for labour, more specifically in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. When a drop in the demand for labour does occur, it is less extreme when compared to similar organisations without a NGPF‐G shareholding, and this is evident even in the case of relatively small NGPF‐G investments. These findings are in line with the fund's objective of promoting corporate sustainability and Norwegian values. We draw out the key implications of our findings for HR practice.