Modelling structural change using the Kalman Filter

Structural change is endemic in the Eastern European economies and the newly emerging Commonwealth of Independent States, yet conventional econometric modelling techniques proceed under the assumption that there is a structurally stable true economy to be discovered. This paper explores the consequences of endemic structural change for econometric modelling by considering the model reduction problem when the data generation process is itself undergoing structural change. The resultant econometric model, it is argued will generally exhibit time varying parameters where much of the structural change is reflected in the changing parameters. The use of Kalman Filters to estimate such changing parameters is then discussed and a range of specifications which allow the inclusion of different forms of identifying information is given. The paper then illustrates these ideas by modelling the determination of the black market exchange rate in Poland over the period from the mid 1970s to the early 1990s.This paper was written as part of the A.C.E. project Methodology, Econometrics and Understanding the East European Economy in Transition.     

Self‐Regulation and the Market for Activism

This paper presents a theory of the market for activism where citizens fund activists, campaigning activists pressure firms to change their practices, and firms self‐regulate to forestall or mitigate campaigns. Activists have leverage because firms must self‐regulate before they are targeted, and their self‐regulation must deter the activists conditional on being targeted. Activists anticipate gaining more from campaigns against soft (more vulnerable) firms than hard (less vulnerable) firms, so it is more costly for soft firms to forestall the activists, and some risk a campaign but self‐regulate to mitigate the probability that the campaign succeeds. Campaigns thus can occur in equilibrium. The threat from activism is the probability that a firm is targeted, and the stronger the threat the fewer campaigns there are because more firms self‐regulate to forestall a campaign. Radical activists target harder firms than do moderate activists, and the more radical the activists the more costly it is to forestall them. Some firms are too hard to be threatened by activism and maximize their profits. Firms that are too hard to target directly may be vulnerable to campaigns threatening their supply and distribution chains. Activists and their donors have an incentive to maximize the scope of activism; that is, the breadth of the threat from activism.     

Growing Followers: Exploring the Effects of Leader Humility on Follower Self‐Expansion,Self‐Efficacy,and Performance

Although the effectiveness of leader humility has been well documented, our understanding of how leader humility influences followers psychologically is limited. Surpassing a mere leader‐centric understanding of the leader influence process by more fully understanding how leadership behavior shapes followers psychologically has been identified as a critical need by leadership scholars. Drawing on self‐expansion theory, we argue that leader humility triggers followers’ self‐expansion and that this psychological change enhances followers’ self‐efficacy, which in turn contributes to followers’ task performance. We also argue that the relationship between leader humility and followers’ self‐expansion is strengthened when leaders and followers are similar in age and gender. Using a time‐lagged research design with responses from 256 leader–follower dyads, we found support for our proposed model. We discuss the theoretical implications for our findings and suggest areas for future research.     

Organization‐Based Self‐Esteem,Psychological Contract Fulfillment,and Perceived Employment Opportunities: A Test of Self‐Regulatory Theory

This study addresses organization‐based self‐esteem (OBSE) development by examining the role of perceptions of employer psychological contract fulfillment, and the self‐regulatory processes by which OBSE evolves and produces its effects. Self‐regulatory theory helps reveal why psychological contract fulfillment relates to OBSE, how OBSE mediates its effects, and the ways in which OBSE might interact with perceived employment opportunities to affect job satisfaction, performance, and turnover intentions. The results show that OBSE is related to and mediates the relationships between relational contract fulfillment and employee job satisfaction and performance, but OBSE is not related to transactional contract fulfillment. Nor does OBSE mediate the relationships between transactional contract fulfillment and the dependent variables. Perceived employment opportunities moderate the relationships of OBSE with job satisfaction and turnover intentions. This study concludes with recommendations of ways managers can increase their sensitivity to the types of messages they communicate to employees. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Competing for Consumers with Self‐Control Problems

I examine strategic implications of competing for consumers with self‐control problems. For investment goods, like health clubs, I find that the equilibrium sign‐up (lump‐sum) fees decrease when competition intensifies, similarly to prices in standard oligopoly models. However, the equilibrium attendance (per‐unit) price increases due to firms' deteriorated ability to take advantage of consumers' self‐control problems. Moreover, firms earn less profit due to consumers' self‐control problems—the firms have a unilateral incentive to charge per‐unit fees lower than the marginal cost; however, they cannot make up the lost margins by increasing the lump‐sum fee, due to competition. I also show that for plausible parameter regions the market adjusts to consumers' self‐control problem in such a way that firms play the standard equilibrium strategies that they would have engaged in with fully rational consumers, with identical market outcomes. Most of the results are qualitatively the same for leisure goods (for example, credit cards); however, some results are reversed: the per‐unit fees are higher than marginal cost and decrease as competition intensifies.     

Return Migration,Self‐selection and Entrepreneurship

Are return migrants more entrepreneurial? Existing literature has not addressed how estimating the impact of return migration on entrepreneurship is affected by double unobservable migrant self‐selection, both at the initial outward migration and at the final inward return migration stages. This paper exploits exogenous variation provided by the civil war and the incidence of agricultural plagues in Mozambique, as well as social unrest and other shocks in migrant destination countries. The results lend support to overall negative unobservable return migrant self‐selection, which results in an under‐estimation of the effects of return migration on entrepreneurial outcomes when using a ‘naïve’ estimator that does not control for self‐selection at both the initial migration and at the final return migration stages.     

Forecasting with High‐Dimensional Panel VARs

This paper develops methods for estimating and forecasting in Bayesian panel vector autoregressions of large dimensions with time‐varying parameters and stochastic volatility. We exploit a hierarchical prior that takes into account possible pooling restrictions involving both VAR coefficients and the error covariance matrix, and propose a Bayesian dynamic learning procedure that controls for various sources of model uncertainty. We tackle computational concerns by means of a simulation‐free algorithm that relies on analytical approximations to the posterior. We use our methods to forecast inflation rates in the eurozone and show that these forecasts are superior to alternative methods for large vector autoregressions.     

Macroeconomic Forecasting using Low‐frequency Filters

We consider univariate low‐frequency filters applicable in real‐time as a macroeconomic forecasting method. This amounts to targeting only low frequency fluctuations of the time series of interest. We show through simulations that such approach is warranted and, using US data, we confirm empirically that consistent gains in forecast accuracy can be obtained in comparison with a variety of other methods. There is an inherent arbitrariness in the choice of the cut‐off defining low and high frequencies, which calls for a careful characterization of the implied optimal (for forecasting) degree of smoothing of the key macroeconomic indicators we analyse. We document interesting patterns that emerge: for most variables the optimal choice amounts to disregarding fluctuations well below the standard business cycle cut‐off of 32 quarters while generally increasing with the forecast horizon; for inflation and variables related to housing this cut‐off lies around 32 quarters for all horizons, which is below the optimal level for federal government spending.     

Self‐managed work teams: An efficiency‐rationale for pay compression

This paper uncovers a novel mechanism through which pay dispersion can have a negative effect on firm performance, even in the absence of equity or fairness considerations. We use a stylized model of a self‐managed work team to show that, when team‐work involves heterogeneous tasks, the provision of incentives to exert effort conflicts with the provision of incentives to share information relevant for decision‐making. Pay dispersion deteriorates information sharing as it induces workers to conceal “bad news” to maintain their coworkers motivation. The practical implications of our theory are that team empowerment should go hand in hand with pay compression and that empowerment should be avoided when team production involves strongly heterogeneous tasks.     

Race,Self‐Employment,and Labor Absorption

Past studies have argued that in the large cities of developing societies, unemployment is often alleviated when displaced workers are absorbed into the small‐scale entrepreneurial activities of the informal economy. The present study applies this argument to an analysis of women's self‐employment in the U.S. South during the Great Depression. Census data show that in large southern cities in 1940, the unemployment of black women was meaningfully reduced by the self‐employment of these women in domestic service. These data further suggest that dynamics of race, unemployment, and the self‐employment of women in domestic service can be represented by an inverted‐U‐shaped labor absorption curve. These results make several contributions to research on race, labor‐market disadvantage, and self‐employment in the informal sector.     

In the LEED: Racing to the Top in Environmental Self‐Regulation

Does voluntary participation in eco‐certification become more substantive over time, or less? Although past research on voluntary programs suggests that later participants are more likely to greenwash by only symbolically adopting voluntary standards, theories of regulatory competition suggest a possible “race to the top.” We argue that participation in voluntary programs can facilitate competition that enables a race, and we advance a theory of self‐regulatory competition to explain dynamics of participation in voluntary environmental programs. Under this perspective, environmental self‐regulation may facilitate a race to the top, despite possibilities for purely symbolic adoption. Analyzing data from a voluntary green building certification program in the United States, we introduce a methodology to distinguish propensities for symbolic certification from more substantive environmental performance. Data demonstrate that later adopters invest additional resources to attain higher certification, becoming greener and suggesting a race to the top in a voluntary greenbuilding certification program.     

Self‐Interest vs. Greed and the Limitations of the Invisible Hand

Markets can only function well if there is an appropriate legal framework to restrict the behavior of market participants; however, the legal framework is inevitably inadequate. A “greedy” market participant that seeks to gain at the expense of others can usually find some way to do so. This might be done within the legal framework, or it might involve a violation of the law that is difficult to enforce. Since the legal system does not generally guarantee that markets can function efficiently, there is a role for other institutions to foster a more enlightened self‐interest as a social norm and thus improve efficiency.     

Turning Unemployment into Self‐Employment: Effectiveness of Two Start‐Up Programmes*

Turning unemployment into self‐employment has become a major focus of German active labour market policy (ALMP) in recent years. If effective, this would not only reduce Germany's persistently high unemployment rate, but also increase its notoriously low self‐employment rate. Empirical evidence on the effectiveness of such programmes is scarce. We evaluate the effectiveness of two start‐up programmes for the unemployed, where we include the probability of being employed, the probability of being unemployed and personal income as outcome variables. Our results show that at the end of the observation period, both programmes are effective. The considerable positive effects present a stark contrast to findings from evaluations of other German ALMP programmes in recent years. Hence, ALMP programmes aimed at moving the unemployed into self‐employment may prove to be among the most effective, both in Germany and elsewhere.     

中国的潜在产出、产出缺口及产量--通货膨胀交替关系--基于"Kalman滤波"方法的研究

本文介绍并运用“Kalman滤波”方法估计1979-2004年间我国的潜在经济增长率和产出缺口,然后根据这些结果检验了我国经济增长与通货膨胀率之间的交替关系、社会的通货膨胀预期对经济的影响、决定产出缺口大小的影响因素等,最后利用研究结果对我国2005年的经济发展进行了预测。     

Inference on Self‐Exciting Jumps in Prices and Volatility Using High‐Frequency Measures

Dynamic jumps in the price and volatility of an asset are modelled using a joint Hawkes process in conjunction with a bivariate jump diffusion. A state‐space representation is used to link observed returns, plus nonparametric measures of integrated volatility and price jumps, to the specified model components, with Bayesian inference conducted using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. An evaluation of marginal likelihoods for the proposed model relative to a large number of alternative models, including some that have featured in the literature, is provided. An extensive empirical investigation is undertaken using data on the S&P 500 market index over the 1996–2014 period, with substantial support for dynamic jump intensities—including in terms of predictive accuracy—documented. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting GDP over the Business Cycle in a Multi‐Frequency and Data‐Rich Environment

This paper merges two specifications recently developed in the forecasting literature: the MS‐MIDAS model (Guérin and Marcellino, 2013) and the factor‐MIDAS model (Marcellino and Schumacher, 2010). The MS‐factor MIDAS model that we introduce incorporates the information provided by a large data set consisting of mixed frequency variables and captures regime‐switching behaviours. Monte Carlo simulations show that this specification tracks the dynamics of the process and predicts the regime switches successfully, both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample. We apply this model to US data from 1959 to 2010 and properly detect recessions by exploiting the link between GDP growth and higher frequency financial variables.     

Self‐help in housing and chengzhongcun in China's urbanization

This article focuses on the housing issues of rural migrants arising from urbanization, with particular reference to chengzhongcun, a topic with considerable impact on policymaking. An attempt is made to understand the underlying rationale of self‐help in housing and the important role of chengzhongcun in sheltering rural migrants in the context of China's rural‐urban dichotomy. As demonstrated in this study, chengzhongcun accommodate, with little in the way of government resources and assistance, millions of rural migrants because of their social accessibility and affordability. While not denying their social problems, we argue that chengzhongcun in fact act as an innovative and positive agent to promote urbanization in present day China by housing massive numbers of rural migrants and assimilating them into cities. Current government policies towards chengzhongcun have generated a wide range of interest conflicts and confrontations. The consequences of such conflicts show that the government policies were problematic and unworkable, as they violated basic market principles as well as citizen rights. Policy strategy towards the redevelopment of chengzhongcun must acknowledge their credibility in the Chinese road to urbanization and requires more thoughtful and prudent consideration of migrants' demands for affordable housing.     

Forecasting inflation using time‐varying Bayesian model averaging

This paper presents a Bayesian model averaging regression framework for forecasting US inflation, in which the set of predictors included in the model is automatically selected from a large pool of potential predictors and the set of regressors is allowed to change over time. Using real‐time data on the 1960–2011 period, this model is applied to forecast personal consumption expenditures and gross domestic product deflator inflation. The results of this forecasting exercise show that, although it is not able to beat a simple random‐walk model in terms of point forecasts, it does produce superior density forecasts compared with a range of alternative forecasting models. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis shows that the forecasting results are relatively insensitive to prior choices and the forecasting performance is not affected by the inclusion of a very large set of potential predictors.